OT: Power 5 Expansion Warming Up?
The Big 12 has formed an expansion committee that comprises Gordon E. Gee (WVU), David Boren (Okla), and Ken Starr (Baylor). All three presidents are pro-expansion. It's no coincidence that Gee is leading that committee either. He has the experience from the B1G. Many analysts are expecting them to target Nebraska and BYU and think they will be at 12 or 14 teams by 2017 or 2018. However, I can't see that happening regarding Nebraska as they are hauling in record revenue with the B1G along with an academic windfall that goes with it.
However, a new report came out confirming that Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Kansas and Iowa State sought to join the Big Ten in 2010. As you know, Nebraska was added and the others were either left behind or joined the SEC. The article ends with an interesting sentence:
"If the predictions come true that the clock is ticking on the Big 12 sticking together, remember what we previously reported from two sources at Nebraska the Big Ten has done its "homework'' to evaluate Oklahoma and Kansas as potential members."
If you remember Delaney's comments. The B1G may continue to expand south and/or east with contiguous boundaries and AAU institutions. Oklahoma and Kansas certainly fit that model. David Boren has been outspoken this summer about expansion too. So, will we see another round of expansion soon? Say 2017 or 2018?
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/oklahoma…
Texas would be better off as an independent. Their football program is in even better shape for independence than Notre Dame's is. The reason they won't is probably because they don't want to deal with the pain in the ass of scheduling for basketball and all of their non-revenue sports.
Maybe the ACC will take them for non-revenue sports. After all, they let Notre Dame have their way with them even though ND won't fully commit to them.
Looks like they'll sleep around with anybody who can flash some cash.
as much as reality and past history are dictating expansion. I think most have become accustomed to that fact that it expansion is inevitable so they are simply stating their preferences. Personally, I would prefer 12 or 16. 14 just doesn't work at all for scheduling..
but that ship sailed long ago. !2 or 16 for me. N argument with regard to BBall scheduling. too many teams. What next......pods?
16 schools would be doable if the number of conference games were increased to 10. But yeah, 14 schools with 8 conference games effectively splits the conference into two affiliated mini-conferences (for the purposes of football, anyway). It's a travesty that we haven't played Wisconsin in five years.
Because you can split the conference into four 4-team pods that play each other every year, and then rotate opposing pods each year.
It allows you to keep core rivalries together while also allowing each school to play teams they'd normally get very few games against in a 2 division set up.
Assuming we were to add Kansas and Oklahoma, what would your four pods be?
So you would have 3 games every year against your own pod, 4 against one other pod and then 1 against one team from each of the pods you don't play?
The only problem with that is how do you determine who goes to the Championship? It doesn't matter what pod, just best two teams? Could two teams from one pod go?
Assuming that structure, I'm having a very hard time coming up with pods.
I have four pods of three each that seem natural, but finishing it off means you must lose rivalries.
BIG East:
- Penn State
- Rutgers
- Maryland
- Indiana
BIG North:
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Ohio State
- Purdue
BIG West:
- Minnesota
- Wisconsin
- Iowa
- Northwestern
BIG South (or Southwest):
- Nebraska
- Kansas
- Oklahoma
- Illinois
That leaves the Illinois and Indiana teams as odd ones out as the fourth in each division.
This structure gives the Indiana schools a major problem (because I don't think the Northwestern-Illinois rivalry is very intense). Also, the pods are MAJORLY imbalanced, particularly between the East (ultra weak) and North (ultra strong).
What would make most geographic and "balanced-divisions" sense would be as follows:
BIG East:
- Penn State
- Rutgers
- Maryland
- Ohio State
BIG Central:
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Indiana
BIG North:
- Northwestern
- Illinois
- Wisconsin
- Minnesota
BIG South/Southwest:
- Iowa
- Nebraska
- Kansas
- Oklahoma
Obviously, the small loser is Iowa (loses Minnesota and Wisconsin, but keeps Nebraska and I think having Iowa with three similar plains states would be appealing; Iowa as a state has much more in common with Kansas than it does with Wisconsin or Minnesota). The Biggest loser, on first glance, is the Big Ten's BIGGEST RIVALRY (hmmm, which would that be...). These pods are far more balanced though.
You would have to have a Michigan-Ohio State crossover. The result of which would mean the three teams that Michigan would play less than everyone else would be Maryland and Rutgers (yay!), but also Penn State (boo!). Ohio State would meet the Indiana schools and MSU less frequently than everyone else. However, MSU/Purdue/IU would play PSU/MD/RU more frequently than the other schools in different pods. Thus, the two big losers of this set up would be the Michigan-Penn State series and the Ohio State-Michigan State series.
What do you think?
Every team gets an even number of home/away games in their division. There are more common opponents. I'd say it was better in every conceivable way.
The Big XII just needs to stabilize which probably involves adding teams. Other than that, I don't see how further expansion is inevitable. Every P5 conference has lucrative TV deals, including the Big XII. None stands to gain much by changing the status quo.
Long, but well written and thought out - upvote!
I can see a situation where Texas goes independent, a few schools hop to the SEC/ACC/Big Ten and the stragglers end up in a situation like Rutgers and UConn did where they have to join a lesser league with their tails between their legs.
Texas -> Independent
Oklahoma / OSU -> SEC
Kansas / KSU -> Big Ten
ISU, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia align with say Houston, Memphis, BYU and a few others to be basically 'the New Big East' i.e. the conference that isn't major or mid-major but is stuck in limbo perpetually trying to gain respect
I'll throw another name out: Florida. I know a Florida alum who has ties to the athletic department. He indicated that they feel that they're at a disadvantage in the SEC because of, well should we say, shady practices and have quietly explored options. Florida's academic reputation is on the rise. A nice little dig at the SEC would be to bring in Florida and Vandy. The latter is N'western in football, but a legit basketball contender.
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And get off my lawn.
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Here is what we came up with (we get bored when no football is being played). I had 10 friends and family members compile a list of what each of the Power 5 would look like 5 years from now. Most of these will not happen and we all agreed that the Big 12 is screwed if they take on schools just to fill the 16 or basically will probably get absorbed by the other Big 4 conferences. We tried keeping the teams within the footprint of each conference, like North, East, West, South, and Midwest. Keep in mind this was just for fun and not taken too seriously. discuss.
The B1G just pretty much added 2 teams from our footprint and most wanted to keep the rivialries with ND and PITT with other B1G alive. I think 3/4 of the guys had these 2 teams joining. We all know ND will never join and PITT, well they have fallen off the past few years. Narduzzi will hopefully bring the football program back though. ND to the West and Pitt to the East.
The ACC looks like the old Big East and the new ACC had a baby together. Holy recruiting in the North Carolina states.
PAC 16 absorbed the bigger schools of the MW conference and BYU if they joined a Power 5.
SEC will try to poach the 2 best teams in there footprint. Majority predicted Clemson and Fla St... gauntlet.
Big 12 doesn't look appealing with Mizzou, Nebraska, A&M, and Colorado leaving. scraps. you can thank Texas for that...
than a few problems here, but addressing Tulane. Tulane has kicked around the idea of dropping scholarship athletics altogether and following the D3 model. Joining a big conference with Texas and Oklahoma seems pretty far-fetched at this point.
We all agreed on that 100%.
Let me just go ahead and address this Tulane post. Tulane had an athletic review in 2003, and it was resoundingly defeated to drop the school to D3. Additionally, Tulane has provided a massive influx in dollars to the athletic department. Truly investing for the first time since they left the SEC. For instance, a brand-new football stadium on campus, a new state-of-the-art practice facility for basketball and volleyball, and upgrades to the basketball/volleyball arena. Indoor practice facility for football is the next target. They've also worked to provide more majors that appeal to athletes and have also added sports post Katrina. Throw in big name donors like the Glazers and Benson familes and Tulane is going nowhere. They have actually had talks with larger conferences. Rumor-mill was that B12 was intrigued given a recommitment to athletics which is what Tulane has shown and while the American Conference TV deal isn't ideal (much smaller) it's still way more than what Tulane brought home from CUSA. You want fertile recruiting ground in Louisiana and a school that bolsters your academic profile like a Northwestern or Vanderbilt you get it with Tulane.
I'm not so worried about Nebraska leaving, but I'm really worried that Maryland and Rutgers get poached. I sure hope that doesn't happen...
For those fearing B1G expansion, remember that 16 teams is probably the worst size. However, if you keep going, you can make a Midwest division and a Stray Dog division, which could be an improvement over our current situation.
How about just add SMU, Houston, and BYU to their league and call it a day.
still some bad blood between Houston/SMU and the other formoer SWC schools for not including them in their jump to combine with the old Big 8
went to 16 teams and specifically broke apart because 16 teams was ridiculous for scheduling.
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Again, no thanks.
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Gotta give respect and admiration to Allen Field House and KU bball, but other than that not so much.
the only smart thing for the B1G to do at this point is to get associate members, a la Hopkins for lacrosse. I think logistically/academically, it doesn't make sense to pick up any former Big 12 members, should more defect. The financial burdens of getting an ACC member are huge right now.
Also, incidentally, Hopkins hasn't joined the CIC. At least not yet.
Here's where I searched: http://www.aau.edu/about/article.aspx?id=5476
Also, it turns out that Nebraska lost their membership!
Correct; Nebraska is the only school in history to have been kicked out of the AAU. And since Michigan and Wisconsin are two of the schools that voted to kick them out (which happened after Nebraska had agreed to join the B1G but before they formally joined), I don't think AAU membership will be a strict requirement anymore.
There's no fan interest in going back, no buyer's remorse whatsoever.
Recent poll last month on this topic, from HuskerMax, the most popular and influentual Husker fan site ran 83% in favor of the B1G:
The drama and increasingly Texas-centric leaning of the conference really wore old.
Only griping I ever hear is the longer drive to games, which is significant, and the new divisional set up. We'd rather play better, more interesting schools like Michigan every year than Purdue and Illinois.
I'd say fans are even split on playing our old rival Oklahoma. They made their bed with Texas when the XII was formed, opting to play the Horns every year and drop their annual game with us.
The academic value of being in the B1G isn't lost on most NU fans, either,and I'm sure the University officials are unanimous supporting the move.
That's good to know. We're glad to have you in the Big Ten. We'll look past the '97 vote thing (football), and hopefully you'll look past the 2013 vote thing (AAU).
Nebraska is a great fit in the B1G and should make some noise in the West division.
I always thought Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would have been great additions to the B1G (much better than Maryland and Rutgers, anyway). Also, we should have added Missouri when we had the chance.
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Same reason why it's better to buy the worst house in the best neighborhood than it is to buy the best house in the worst neighborhood: location, location, location.
Like I know that it's a stretch to buy that academics mean much in this whole wheel of madness, but Boise's are next level bad. It'd be like adding a community college to the Pac 12 or Big 12. If their overall athletic department was better (it's a one sport school) or it helped capture a better TV market or if it was just geographically closer to other programs, they could maybe swallow the awful academics. But when you have those strikes against you, it's just too much.
Meanwhile, BYU's academics aren't GREAT but they aren't community college bad and they're a major TV draw because they're every LDS person's default favorite. Like a middle class Notre Dame sort of.
The ACC has an exit fee of $50 million right now and as somebody mentioned the TV rights are tied to the conference, not to the school, making it very, very unlikely that it makes financial sense for any ACC school to leave the conference (outside of maybe ND because of the NBC money).
The Big 10 has its TV deal coming up in a year or two and is expected to see a significant increase with both ESPN and FOX expected to make major bids (as reported on this very site I believe). I find it highly unlikely that Nebraska will leave millions of dollars on the table simpy because they used to have a rivalry with Oklahoma.
The Big 12 is really the key here. Do the remaining schools have options? I bet you Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (a package deal) are looking long and hard at the SEC and the PAC-12 as an option if the money makes sense. OU would at least offer a mid-size media market and more eyeballs in Texas (at least for the SEC). Iowa State is basically screwed since they bring nothing to the table. Ditto Kansas State, but at least they are tied to KU. I'm sure the numbers guys at the Big 10 have run the scenarios if they add KU and K-State and whether it makes sense from a financial perspective. My guess is that it doesn't.
If I had to guess, best bet would be that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State jump to either the SEC or the Pac-12 and Kansas/K-State try like hell to get into the Big 10 shortly after that. If they make it, I bet you see Texas kick the tires on starting up the old Southwest Conference again with the Longhorn Network as the "conference" channel. A Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston, SMU, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia and some combo of Kansas, K-State, UTEP, Rice, and maybe Texas State/UTSA would probably be the outcome.
If the B1G expands, I'm hoping they have two other schools on the radar to replace Rutgers and Maryland.
It's an excellent conference on the field and on the court, but they don't have programs that move the needle with Nielsen. Go check out http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ and see what a lot of these Big 12 games on FS1 rated. A ton of games that drew less than a half a million eyeballs. Even their marquee matchups got doubled up by SEC or Big 10 games.
It's looking a lot like what happened to the old Southwest conference, minus the whole NCAA violations for half the conference. Too much saturation of the few strong TV markets, and not enough TV markets in the conference to begin with. Losing the Denver market, Nebraska's national TV clout from years as a dominant program and Missouri crippled them. Adding a team with no fans (TCU) and a team from a tiny state (West Virginia) didn't make things better.
Personally, I'd love to see the Big 10 become the Big 16, and add Oklahoma and whoever. The 4 team pod division set up works a hell of a lot better than the 2 divisions of 7 set up we have already, and it'd allow us to preserve important rivalries without making everyone in the other division virtual strangers.
Expands the B1G South AND East. Big TV market. Major airline hub, easy to get to.
Opens the South East to viewers, recruiting, an' all that.
I would definitely take Oklahoma and Kansas. That's a good fit, not to mention a blue blood in football and one in basketball.