No way this happens...
What do you mean "cold feet"
The ACC and SEC have already gone to 14, it's way too late for cold feet.
Also, I'm fairly confident that location no longer plays much -- if any -- role in conference realignment.
Location doesn't matter for
Location doesn't matter for football, because they can still make money. But for all other sports it does.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing” - Bo Schembechler
I sort of agree with your
I sort of agree with your conclusion, but not your reasons. Texas won't mind more teams, and location isn't a big deal anymore.
What will stop this is the threat of antitrust legislation from the smaller conferences and schools. In SuperConference Armageddon the big boys will start cherry picking preferred schools until 4 relevant conferences are left, then dictate their own terms for a playoff (the Rose Bowl and SEC whatever bowl could wind up being perpetual semifinals). That's when the little boys sue.
A small Texas hang up is small change in the grander scale. The Sec, B1G, PAC, and Big 12 could mutually agree to just have the winners of their bowls play each other every year and simultaneously invite all the best leftover teams to their conferences and this would all be over by mid-summer. (You don't have to call this a national championship, everyone would know. Every team on the outside that got an invite would take it immediately or risk permanent second-class status). Lawsuits are the big thing keeping that from happening.
Servant. Pastor. Husband. Michigan fan in Duluth.
Antitrust
I understand how antitrust works in the business world (eg. Microsoft, AT&T buying T-Mobile) but am very naive on how antitrust applies to "non-profit" college sports. Could someone please help clarify?
Seriously ignorant,
indywolverine
I am not a lawyer,
I am not a lawyer, but.....there isn't really a lot of precedent. The only time I can think of where antitrust law was applied was when the owners of the NIT sued the NCAA on the grounds that it was monopolistic to force schools that were selected to the NCAA tournament to play in that tournament and not be able to choose the NIT. The solution was for the NCAA to buy the NIT (that is, pay $55 million of shut-up-and-go-away money) thus creating an even more monopolistic situation than before.
So there really isn't a lot of useful historical data there.
"We've beaten Michigan the last four years. So where's the threat?"
- Mark Dantonio
Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<
Thanks Wahoo...
If I remember from my skooling, antitrust law's primary objective is to protect the interest of consumers. Often this also results in smaller competitors being protected, but that's at most a secondary objective, if not just a byproduct.
Not clear who the consumers would be in this case. If it's student athletes of smaller schools, I don't see them being harmed. Sure they may miss out on a free Disneyworld vacation, but that's not the point.
Hopefully an MGoLawyer will provide some clarity.
No way this happens...
Texas doesn't want to share...and the location has to come into play at some point.
Also, the acting Big XII commish said yesterday that 14 is out of the question and his buddies at the ACC and SEC or having cold feet about going to 14. He thinks 10-12 is the right number.
The only way they go to 14 is if Notre Dame joins as an all-sports member and asks them to do it.
“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”
I'm pretty sure orange bloods
I'm pretty sure orange bloods motto is : being right 1/15 times about conference realignment= success. They do probably get a crazy amount of clicks though.
Touchdown Manningham! MICHIGAN WINS!
Sports talk radio referencing
Sports talk radio referencing OrangeBloods is like the perfect storm of illfounded rumormongering. The only way it could get any better is if they did so with a Bleacher Report editor as a guest.
"We've beaten Michigan the last four years. So where's the threat?"
- Mark Dantonio
Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<
For What It's Worth
FWIW....the radio host even made a disclaimer about Orange Bloods and the reliability of past information. However, he specifically mentioned that Chip Brown had more credibility than most.
It's not hard to believe that discussions have taken place. Actual activity toward a transition is a different story but I don't have any trouble believing that schools are starting to explore their options. It's a nervous time for the ACC.
This is not good for Syracuse
This is not good for Syracuse and UCONN. They left the Big East and ruined all of their great rivalries in basketball, just to join the ACC to be more profitable in football. But now, the ACC seems to be unraveling and Cuse' and UCONN are back to where they started in football, and now not in the toughest basketball conference arguably year in and year out.
Pitt, not UConn.
Pitt, not UConn.
Also: there is nothing that can happen to the ACC that is worse than what happened / is happening to the Big East.
"We've beaten Michigan the last four years. So where's the threat?"
- Mark Dantonio
Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<
I hate all of what is happening with this
pilfering of teams from one conference to another. This might, might be good for the Big 12 and the few teams that bolt the ACC, but this really is bad for college football as a whole.
Florida State and Miami in the same conference as Iowa State and Oklahoma? That is just nuts.
yeah... up until now, it's
yeah... up until now, it's all made some sense. Nebraska to the B1G? Fine. The mountain schools to the Pac-10? Fine. Texas A&M and Mizzou to the SEC? Sure. Cuse and Pitt to the ACC? Yeah, why not? But all this Big East and Big 12 stuff is really fucking absurd.
When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing. -- Bo Schembechler
Va Tech is not happening
The Virginia state legislature forced UVA to leverage Va Tech into the ACC in 2003 over Syracuse. They will not let Va Tech abandon UVA now without UVA having an equally good fallback. Furthermore, even if Va Tech could leave UVA behind, they know that doing so would poison relations between the schools, which is not good for Va Tech if they care about academic partnership's with the state flagship.
Good point. UVA goes wherever
Good point. UVA goes wherever VaTech does--they might as well call themselves a package deal. And that could torpedo some big expansion plans, because UVA athletics just aren't that attractive.
In Superconference Armageddon it wouldn't surprise me of the B1G looked that way, but taking both would be tough; I think the B1G would make a play for UNC and Duke first. Seriously.
Servant. Pastor. Husband. Michigan fan in Duluth.
I really don't know if this
I really don't know if this can be considered the case. It might. Truth is, if you advanced that theory on a UVA message board the general feeling would be "we hope you're right but we're not convinced the legislature won't fuck us."** Different governor, eight years ago, etc.
**There would also be the vocal minority that says "I don't care if we're left behind as long as VT gets the hell out."
"We've beaten Michigan the last four years. So where's the threat?"
- Mark Dantonio
Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<
Does this mean UVA to the big
Does this mean UVA to the big ten could happen? That would be cool. VT can go to the Big 12. We'll take UVA, and UNC if we don't need to take NC State.
I think if it came to the
I think if it came to the point where the ACC was completely nuked, then yes, it's more than possible VT and UVA could go separate ways as long as both found a home.
But I don't get why people think the B1G would do this. Honestly, it would be a dilution of the product. "Getting the DC area into the BTN" is not worth it. For the Big Ten, it's ND + anyone, or don't bother.
Besides, I don't want to be in the Big Ten. If that happened I'd go kicking and screaming. I like our baseball program, and I also like not having U-M and OSU going into high schools in Virginia and pulling whoever they like and having UVA deal with the scraps. We are not going to get a reciprocal benefit in Ohio.
"We've beaten Michigan the last four years. So where's the threat?"
- Mark Dantonio
Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<
I don't know as much about UVA
but if the B1G follows the academics and major sports thread, UNC and UVA are good gets. Duke is a little more iffy on the sports side, but I guess hoops might make the case. The research dollars between UNC and Duke though stack up nicely with the B1G. (Assuming here UVA is similar, but maybe not. Georgia Tech is the best engineering school in the ACC no? They have better football and hoops than UVA. But Michigan may have a Willis Ward problem.)
My other assumption is, if this happened, ND's hand is forced and they go Big 12 or B1G.
I am not sold on any NY / New England market school -- maybe BC. But none of them wield the research dollar power UNC or Duke do.
I sure would love having more B1G games to go to within driving distance. Would be tough on hoops, baseball, and LAX though.
Bottom line, being from Northern Virginia, and living in RTP, UNC, Duke, and UVA are the academic schools of choice in the east.
VT will NOT go to the BigXII.
VT will NOT go to the BigXII. The SEC lusts after them. Why sleep with a 7 when a 10 is gazing your way and giving the $%*! me eyes?
I suspect that this "wherever
I suspect that this "wherever UVA goes so goes VaTech" is misplaced and lacks an understanding of UVA and VaTech's's history and ties. Clemson and South Carolina, Georgia and Georgia Tech, and Florida and Florida State are about as much of a package deal as UVA and VaTech.
I suspect that UVA is as much (or more so) tied to UNC or Maryland as they are to VaTech.
Ihave no clue why people keep
Ihave no clue why people keep wanting UNC and Duke...They offer horrendous football with the tradeoff being great bball of course but that is barely a factor as football is all that matters...Also, why do we keep looking south ? Our roots are as a northern conference why taint it with mediocre southern schools just to get to 14...
Dolla dolla bills, y'all.
Dolla dolla bills, y'all. Virginia and North Carolina bring big footprint additions, not to mention rapidly growing footprints, and fertile recruiting ground. Also, expect lacrosse to be the third revenue sport in 10-15 years.
No that is not it.
Its all of the gorgeous babes at Duke that's driving it.
Hockey is our 3rd revenue
Hockey is our 3rd revenue sport...And i doubt lax will ever out profit hockey even though im a huge lax fan (i live on Long Island)...
Other than Texas and ND,
Other than Texas and ND, North Carolina is the crown jewel in realignment. They are a national brand in a growing state. I live in the West and you see a ton of UNC gear here as you do anywhere because they have a national following. On top of that, they are good in EVERYTHING else.
As far as football, the potential is there if the school wants to put the money and resources into it. 25 years ago, Florida had never won an SEC title. I don't think UNC football has THAT potential (North Carolina isn't Florida as a recruiting state), but they CAN be a top 15 program.
They are the best fit for the B1G outside of ND.
I agree with this.
I agree with this.
I also agree with this. And,
I also agree with this. And, as someone who means to end up in North Carolina when all is said and done, I could more easily watch my Michigan games.
Michigan: 903–315–36 (Best in NCAA)
vs Ohio State: 58-44-6
vs Notre Dame: 23-16-1
vs MSU: 68-32-5
vs B1G: 522-197-24
vs SEC: 20-8-1
vs PAC 12: 48-24-1
vs Big 12: 10-5-1<
North Carolina Football
I think that North Carolina has a reasonable chance of getting to Top 25 level in football on a consistent basis. They have a 60k-ish seat stadium with upgraded facilities. They have a national "brand". They were willing to spend $2.5MM per year on the failed Butch Davis experiment.
I don't have the exact numbers but they've probably put 5-6 players in the first two rounds of the NFL draft over the past two seasons. That's solid by any standard other than Alabama. Players will play for UNC. It's just a matter of being consistent about it.
ADs
don't really want all the teams in each confrence to be good.
If an OSU fan divorces his wife are they still brother and sister?
AAU membership
Duke and NC Chapel Hill are both in the AAU, which may make them attractive to the B1G.
That said, the B1G should be a Great Lakes/Upper Midwest conference because....well, dammit, I just prefer it that way.
/searing logic
Because I'm old and grouchy
Your sig line
I'm not old or grouchy, and I'm totally with you. At some point you have to stand for the culture of your conference, not just economics.
"The straightest line from A to B is straight: From A to B"
"When you have Denard Robinson, you can have everything"
~George Walden
Research dollars
and academic reputation.
Which northern schools do you propose will stack up?
How about top research
How about top research Universities....public additions would fit in well in the COC and the B1G (UVA and UNC) where private institutions with great research interests (Duke) would complement Northwestern nicely...
Not even mentioning the obvious footprint additions in locations with positive population trends.
UVA is actually quite good in
UVA is actually quite good in a number of sports (LX). That and being the highest ranked Public University (I know, I know) is attractive.
Another Point
is that basically as it stands, UVA and UNC lose a lot of their in-state footall talent to other schools that seem to put more of an emphasis on football, because they are not seen as football schools. It's why Indiana can't keep its good football players around. However, if they jumped to a top to bottom better football conference than the ACC, with large alumni bases in their area (for example, I know the DC area gets lots of Michigan and Penn State alumni), then more people will attend the games and have interest in the sport, which would make it easier to keep their more talented kids in the state.
So it goes.
The more i think about it,
The more i think about it, the more I think that VaTech is the most desirable, realistic football team in the ACC as a potential B1G expansion target.
Sugar bowl attendance excluded, they have a passionate fan base, a decent academic school, would help with putting B1G in basic cable in the DC/MD/NoVa region, and are not smoking craters of a football program such as what Randy Edsall is creatin in College Park.
let the pieces fall where they may
I think Missouri and Texas
I think Missouri and Texas A&M would fit in well in the Big XII. That would put them at 12 again, with the additions of WVU and TCU, and reduce the SEC to a more manageable 12. Wait, what?
For my privacy, my new username is "non-Oriental non-Andrew"
This actually makes sense.
A
This actually makes sense.
A few years down the road, some of these conferences are going to look around and see how just how good their alignments were before they started F'ing with them.
M'Dog
In all honesty I have a hard
In all honesty I have a hard time taking any of the expansion talks serious, but would you really want to be talking to Miami? Shit is getting ready to hit the fan for them.
What's so magical about the
What's so magical about the number 16? Why does it seem inevitable that there will be 4 16-team conferences?
It's a power of 2 that would
It's a power of 2 that would fit nicely into almost any playoff scheme.
It's more of a fan's dream
It's more of a fan's dream than anything else. Fans like symmetry. But in reality, there are not 16 more schools to cram into the Big Ten, Pac-12, Big 12 and SEC. They just don't exist. There may be four "super-conferences", but they won't be of 16 teams. Maybe the SEC and Big 12 go up to 16, those conferences seem like they act before thinking. But the Big Ten won't go up unless it's worth it. And the Pac 12 has nobody reasonably in their footprint to add. If they can't pull in Texas, it's not happening out west.
This is an excellent point.
This is an excellent point. For all the talk of super conferences, I've never heard a plausible scenario, since the Big XII teams pledged their media rights to the conference, of who the Pac 12 would possible add to get to 16. Every plausible school is already in one of the major conferences, and I don't see any scenario in which the Pac 12 would be interested in BYU or Boise.
BYU
would bring in the world wide Mormon market. CTR Bowl rings for everyone /s
If an OSU fan divorces his wife are they still brother and sister?
Agree and disagree
I think when you add up the schools in the PAC 12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Notre Dame you come to 63 schools by my count. Through in some other schools that might be deserving of consideration (Boise State, service academies, some of the Big East schools), it becomes tough to choose who is to be left out. I actually don't think 64 is enough slots.
Regarding your larger point, you are dead on. Each conference is going to do what is in their own best interest. Thus what we are seeing is a lot of jockeying for position over rival conferences, but not college football as a whole. There is no coordinated drive or strategy that is going to get us to 4 16-team conferences. That would mean that the Big East and another conference (presumably either the ACC or Big12) will have to die, and they are not going to go down without a fight.
In order to have 4 16-team (or more) conferences, each of the conferences (and some teams) will have to make concessions. For example, the Big 10 would get Notre Dame, but would have to take West Virginia, Syracuse, and Pitt as well. Each conference would have to have some things imposed by the NCAA to get there, and that is not how the NCAA and the conferences are set up.
There may be 63 schools
There may be 63 schools currently in the big five conferences (+ notre dame), but you and I know that many of them wouldn't be super conference worthy if not for the fact that they weren't already in one of those conferences. Each conference has them: Big Ten - Northwestern, Purdue (?); ACC - Wake Forrest, Boston College, Duke (?), Syracuse(?), Pitt(?); SEC: Vanderbilt, Mississippi State; Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU (?); Pac 12: Washington State, Oregon State(?), Stanford (?).
I think we agree on the larger point, super conferences will kill off one of the existing conferences, and the only schools from that dead conference that get picked up will have something to offer.
Most of the schools that you deem unworthy of
a being in a super conference I think are. You also seem to leave out teams that traditionally have losing records. Well, leave these out, then some other teams will have to start losing games. Might as well be those listed above, that have been fielding teams for a century or more.
Regardless, how are you going to get any kind of majority of the institutions that make up the NCAA to go along with this when you leave most out? There are roughly 120 D-1 schools; all of the ones left out will oppose this, as well as some that would be included (due to an alliance to schools excluded). That is just one reason why it would have to be more than 16-team conferences. The other being those left out would likely sue the NCAA.
Texas doesn't want to share...and the location has to come into play at some point.
Also, the acting Big XII commish said yesterday that 14 is out of the question and his buddies at the ACC and SEC or having cold feet about going to 14. He thinks 10-12 is the right number.
The only way they go to 14 is if Notre Dame joins as an all-sports member and asks them to do it.
“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”