Ohio Gov Mike DeWine...some athletics perspective for 2020-21 from today's presser
Here is some sobering perspective from the OH Gov presser today about football and beyond this fall. He's been at the forefront of keep cases to a minimum statewide.
Puts the bball recruiting news in perspective; there's a very good chance that these players wont actually suit up in for a game in front of fans till the 21-22 season....and the one and done's would be long gone. That would also mean IMHO that the prospect of a player suiting up over seas quite slim.
#Hail
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine on whether he expects schools and universities to reopen this fall: "I think it's much too early to be making any decisions about fall. I don't think we know enough ... but what I think we do know ... until there is a vaccine ... it's going to be different.
Asked specifically whether he believes Ohio State football games will take place this fall, Mike DeWine says he doesn't know, but says large gatherings of people are going to be one of the last things to come back. "I wish I knew the answer to your question. I don't."
I like my women like I like my tractor tires.
Thick.
ours are filled, to give them extra weight during plowing season. yours, too?
We're more in the hay business.
We still fill our tires even when haying is all we might do in a given crop-year.
Players are suiting up overseas. Haven’t you heard of the Taiwan Beer basketball team?
Pro baseball leagues are playing in Taiwan and S. Korea.
The overseas option might be the best one if players want to be sure of playing basketball next season. Some leagues will surely be in operation, others might not be.
Yeah New Zealand and Australia will probably both be in a position to run leagues without fans in seats too. Not to mention the moral implications of amateur athletes versus paid athletes allows pro leagues to make decisions college athletics shouldn't be.
This is exactly the way to think about the Todd decision and Wagner and Livers would probably be crazy to stay as well. Pro leagues will find a way to make things work. Colleges? Probably not next year. So if these guys can find anyone to pay them next year, it'll be better than not playing college ball.
I have no idea how this is going to go down. I think college sports could realistically still happen but there won’t be any fans in the stadium. Testing for the virus is going to be much more rapid and accurate by August that I could foresee everyone on the team being tested multiple times a week and hours before the game. If they are negative, they could play. Who knows, it’s just a possibility.
Leave it up to an Ohioan to ask the Governor during the worst pandemic we have ever seen if there is going to be an OSU football season. #Priorities
That's the way pro sports will do it but I just can't see college sports putting that much effort into it, traveling and putting student athletes even at the slightest risk when there's no fans. We'll see of course. Lot of unknowns.
Angela Merkel (Germany)'s video conference with the premiers of the 16 German states tomorrow will be interesting.
The German Academy of Science has recommending reopening schools ASAP - possibly as early as next week. A decision will supposedly be made tomorrow.
We'll see. America isn't the EU, of course, but their decision could be a "leading indicator" as to what to expect in other places.
If I had to bet, American schools are in session live come Labor Day.
I agree. I think there’s something strange about this virus - it seems like 60 days of chaos and then it crashes. A few days ago Spain looked screwed, as if the lockdown was accomplishing nothing.
Suddenly, new cases are crashing down to nothing and Europe as a whole is talking about reopening. Either this thing disappears after 60 days or the pain of shutdown is too much and they are reopening despite a threat of flare ups.
time will tell.
It's not strange.
That lag was exactly what was expected. The infections that occurred before lockdowns and restrictions have a fairly long (up to 14 day) incubation period and then it's usually another week or more from the time people experience their first symptoms to the time they are sick enough to seek a test or hospitalization, and then it's another 5 days or so until those tests come back.
So it's often about 3-4 weeks from the time someone is first infected to the time their case is confirmed. And then even in a quarantine situation, they infect the rest of their family so those people are a few days behind still.
That's why the peaks of the infection confirmations are happening about 3-5 weeks after shutdowns. Make no mistake, the shutdowns are working extremely well. That's why new cases are crashing to next to nothing after 6-8 weeks of shutdowns. It's only "disappearing" because of the drastic measures we're taking but it's not gone and it could flare up quickly again if we just went back to normal. This why easing restrictions has to be done intelligently.
Are these projections super long, though? If we engage in pretty thorough lockdowns over the next say, 6-8 weeks, will that get the number close to 0? It seems pretty wild to me that we still won't be back to something resembling normal come the fall. I mean- the college basketball season begins 7 months from now - that seems like a super long lag (I guess I'm assuming continuous shutdowns).
But at the same time, I am 100% for easing restrictions as slowly and cautiously as possible so we can protect the vulnerable and avoid a flare up. I just hate seeing those long term projections that seem to indicate we're nowhere close, they make me sad.
The models do project the numbers will get close to zero with FULL social distancing through May but there are two flaws in that model: 1) we still aren't fully social distancing with essential businesses and grocery stores open, etc. and 2) that doesn't account for infections coming back into the country.
We saw how quick it went from zero to millions in Jan-March. It will likely do the same in the fall if we go completely back to normal.
I do think we'll see cases be very low over the course of the summer and life will somewhat return to normal during that time, slowly and incrementally. But as DeWine is saying, amongst the last things that'll come back are sports and concerts and non-essential large gatherings. Until we have a vaccine, it makes no sense to put Mostly Normal at risk just so we can attend sporting events in person.
If the base case is a flare up again in the fall, we need to do everything we can to get to herd immunity, or close to it, before then. It's not an exaggeration to say the economy will crater and 20,000,000 will see their lives ruined. Start with the youngest getting the immunity and work your way up to the 60 year olds. Anyone older than that should stay home until the vaccine is developed and proven.
In order to get herd immunity this summer we'd have to do exactly what we've been trying to avoid this whole time- have 200+ million people get infected in a few weeks and destroy our health systems.
We've got to try something else.
You'd kill at least a half million people on the way to herd immunity and we don't even know that herd immunity is possible or how long it would last.
A flare up in the fall would happen if we went completely back to normal. We can avoid that through smart measures that allow for mostly business as usual like Japan is doing.
That means no sports though. Again, living mostly normally by fall (even by summer) is possible but we have to sacrifice gatherings over 50-100 people and maybe some other things until a vaccine is developed.
A strong testing, contract tracing and quarantine system will also be key. Trying to remove people who are infected before they infect too many others can really slow things down.
Yes, and no. Large gatherings like sports and concerts completely undermine the whole testing and contract tracing strategy. The point is to keep contacts somewhat minimized so that public health and government officials have a fighting chance to contain an outbreak.
Thanks - makes sense, I hadn't thought of some of those factors. And I guess nothing short of Wuhan-level shutdown will really crush the crush down to zero. Still pretty disheartening though.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:02 PM ^
The projections are generally for the first "wave" and run through the summer. If social distancing is maintained through May and things are re-opened intelligently. However I think essentially everyone is predicting a second wave in the fall that isn't included in current projections because we don't know enough about the first wave to do that yet. If we are smart and have good testing and an antibody test we could get through the fall wave with less interruptions like south korea or Hong Kong got through this wave and hopefully that gets us to a vaccine
If you get schools back online by fall, there is a chance you can have some version of football. Perhaps limited to conference schedules and attendance restrictions. If players start to get infected though I could see it getting shut back down.
Once again schools and sports are not really linked at all. From a virus mitigation standpoint many in the medical community argue schools should be the last thing to close and first thing to open. You can see that in Denmark opening kindergarden first this week. On the other hand, large crowds for games and concerts are literally the last thing that should open and probably shouldn't happen until we have a vaccine or herd immunity. They are massive risks to the community and not anywhere close to societal need like education is.
Oh, I agree. I think limited attendance (if at all) would be what you see. It seems very odd to envision college football even without fans proceeding without schools. That doesn't seen likely at all. Quite honestly none of it seems likely. Testing, monitoring, tracing would have to be the norm in the broader population, and that is not on track.
Testing, monitoring and tracing better be the norm soon. It is the key to opening things up and keeping then open.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:43 AM ^
I dont undertand this logic at all, unless someone believes that multi-generational housing doesn't or shouldn't exist.
I have 3 kids 5-7 and my in-laws live with me as well. My father in law is 70, diabetic and has respiratory conditions.
If we send young kids back to school, he will immediately be at risk.
Multi-generational homes are far more prevalent in some ethnic communities than others, as well as in impoverished communities.
Yea, and the Ohioans wept, gnashed their teeth, and shat in their coolers.
"Shat in their coolers" (while concurrently practicing a six foot social distancing)
I’ve been really impressed with DeWine. I know nothing of his policies, which I likely disagree with more often than not given party affiliation. But from a leadership perspective, making tough decisions, and being transparent with his constituents, he’s been one of the better leaders out there.
Maybe he could govern Michigan too.
They've been nearly identical in governing relative to any other state. The only differences are their genders, parties and their state legislature alignment.
This was my takeaway too, though I get negged for it. Given DTW serves 2x the traffic as Columbus and Cleveland airports combined and we have a very busy international border, i would have expected Michigan to move more quickly here, but it seemed like we just followed Ohio’s lead. Maybe I’m imagining it, but that’s the sense I got.
You're right. It seems like everything they did for a couple weeks was always a day ahead of us. Who knew governance was a copycat league like the NFL.
Ohio has a couple million more people and three major cities. Plus, their COVID numbers were initially higher than Michigan's. That may be why they were a little bit quicker on the draw.
80% of the states did everything Ohio did, just a day or so later. Not just Michigan.
Exactly.
Completely agree. He seems to be practicing less politics and more common sense. His approach to this whole thing has been refreshing. He’s not threatening a shutdown til the end of time and not promising unrealistic return to work dates. He’s reevaluating the situation constantly and isn’t afraid to say “I don’t know”. He almost sounds like a human being.
If I were governor of Ohio, I wouldn't let OSU play football, either.
Guys it’s fine. The 2020 football season won’t happen.... until in a surprise we find a cheap readily available cure for covid19 just days before the scheduled date for the Michigan and OSU game. Both schools decide it’s a great idea to inspire the nation and renew the rivalry as the only college football game of the year. OSU wins 83-17.
I couldn’t help but laugh. Partly because I’ve had the exact same thought and partly because we are destined for this to happen. They would be crowned national champions. But would this count as a playoff berth for us?
Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.
~Marie Curie
We were also projected to have 85,000 deaths by today. I’m tired of the worst case scenario projections.
NO. WE ARE ALL STILL GOING TO DIE AND THE FEW REMAINING ALIVE WILL HAVE TO LIVE LIKE ITS THE STONE AGE.
should be an image of tatum o'neal singing 'keep your sunny side up, up', but its not showing on my screen once i post. you guys see it?
But without the worse case projections, would we have had such a concerted "stay at home" effort? I imagine that if we would've done the whole "Everything's fine. Nothing to see here" routine, would could've tripled our numbers.
This is news? It's too early to make any decisions. Large gatherings of people are going to be one of the last things to come back. Is that suppose to be news to anyone?
I'm not sure how you make the jump from that, to "there probably won't be a college basketball season." Even if there are games without fans, one and done players would still play in that scenario.
I think everyone already realizes that college football and basketball and other sports may or may not come back during the upcoming school year. The Ohio governor's quote offers no new info, IMO.
April 14th, 2020 at 11:48 PM ^
There are a sizable number of people here that think this is going away after a couple months and that there will for sure be a football season. I agree that of course large gatherings of people are gong to the last things to come back but it is news to some that it might not be for year or more that they do come back.