Now 538 is telling us this might be real too...

Submitted by jbrandimore on September 23rd, 2021 at 12:23 PM

Don't shoot the messenger. Personally, my reservation at BPONE land runs through October 3rd.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-believing-in-michigan-football/

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JamieH

September 23rd, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^

Yes plus the final polling is always done a few days before the election, and at that point in 2016 things were moving heavily away from HRC on a daily basis due to the current events, which I won't go into since we avoid politics. 

So the 538 projection was already a few days out of date just because that's how things work, and it was definitely more accurate than most.

Joined: 09/05/2009

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BeatOSU52

September 23rd, 2021 at 8:34 PM ^

538 was also pretty dead accurate with the 2018 midterms and 2021 Georgia senate runoffs.   If you listen to the 538 politics podcast on the reg, it’s easy to pick up that general public flack that they got for 2016 and some of 2020 is mostly just a bunch of bullshit narratives about them. 

Joined: 11/13/2011

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MGoBender

September 23rd, 2021 at 2:25 PM ^

538 is the one place that gave Trump a realistic shot of winning. It is routinely the best predictor as it aggregates polls, relies on historical data and provides probabilities of outcomes. It doesn't necessarily predict outcomes. So, if 538 said Trump has a 25% chance of winning, that means that 1/4 times he's going to win. It's not that unlikely. Nobody's betting their house on those odds when you get once shot at it.

I don't get people that don't understand this.

Joined: 03/26/2010

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San Diego Mick

September 23rd, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^

Thanks for the workable link mGrow, it was a very cogent and reasonably put together article without hyperbole. 

We've just been conditioned to be hesitant to believe too easily what we're seeing, this team has a different feel to it, I've been closely watching since the early 70's and it's reminding me of past great teams. We were always a team that improved as the season went on, I want to get back to that while starting greatly out of the gate.

I too agree with 538!

Joined: 05/11/2011

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gbdub

September 23rd, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^

I think it lays out the case pretty well - yes, it's just the nonconference schedule, and yes, it's not a particularly strong one. But Michigan is, through 3 games, genuinely playing very well. Much better than the fool's gold Septembers we've seen in past years, where, even if Michigan emerged without a loss, there were some definite cracks in the foundation. 

It does not make you a slappy homer to acknowledge this reality, and it does not make you a Polyanna to have a bit of optimism right now.

Joined: 02/16/2010

MGoPoints: 26761

FlexUM

September 23rd, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^

I'm enjoying the season and will continue to do so this year and also believe there is reason to believe. But I've got to see something in Madison. Even in a loss...I need to see something. Did the culture really change, does this team have true intestinal fortitude or not?

I'm believing there is something to this but we'll see in ~2 weeks. 

Joined: 11/05/2011

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FlexUM

September 24th, 2021 at 7:29 AM ^

See that is exactly where my head is. Unlike recent years I think they could rebound from a loss (just meaning winning the east will be more competitive this year). I sure as hell want them to win the game but if they come out and play a clean game and are "on" I'll feel encouraged...even in a loss. 

Certainly want them to win the game but I REALLY don't want to see them running around like they have two left feet and looking like they forgot how to play football in madison. 

Joined: 11/05/2011

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DennisFranklinDaMan

September 23rd, 2021 at 4:31 PM ^

Yep. Actually, I'm willing to hang with the team even if they lose to Wisconsin and rebound. I feel like the last few years, more than anything else, the team showed it had no interest in playing once any legitimate hope of a Big Ten Championship disappeared. They may lose at Wisconsin -- that wouldn't be a disgrace -- but can they show heart and show up the next week?

(But obviously I'd much rather they won in Madison).

Joined: 01/23/2021

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maznblu

September 23rd, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^

If we really want to know how good this team is, I believe we will have to wait until the end of the season.

Until then, it can be helpful to separate our egos from the team, so we can simply enjoy this opportunity to watch our favorite team play football while wearing the best uniforms, representing a university that is one of the best in the WORLD, accompanied by a great marching band playing the best fight song, and sometimes with 100,000 fans watching in the one of the greatest college towns around. 

Don't forget to appreciate our abundance of riches.

Joined: 01/03/2011

MGoPoints: 587

mGrowOld

September 23rd, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^

But we're not "puffing our chests out" - an independent national sports news website with a focus on analytics is.  And all they did is identify the reasons why this 3-0 start might be different from the other fast starts we've had under Harbaugh.

I'm guessing you didnt actually read the article because in it they point out that great Septembers have been a hallmark of the Harbaugh era while October & November have been a dissapointment. This was their closing line where they basically only say "there's a chance".

"The Game is in Ann Arbor this year, and that combined with a slightly reduced OSU gives Michigan one of its best chances in a while. Predicting a Michigan win would be foolish, but for a rare change, so would be dismissing the possibility out of hand that the Wolverines give their much more successful rival a lot to handle."

Joined: 10/04/2010

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JMo

September 23rd, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^

Honestly, I can't think of a scenario where I'd "puff my chest out." This, by the way, is in no way a prediction of an undefeated season. I am not tempting fate or gods. Just playing out a hypothetical.

 

Beat Wisconsin, great but they're kinda failable this season. No puff.

Next big challenge, beat Michigan State. Ok, but we beat them in Lansing and they're still rebuilding. No puff.

Next up, beat Indiana. We're supposed to beat Indiana. No cookie. No puff.

Beat Penn State. That probably would feel like a pretty big accomplishment, but Ohio State is right around the corner. Who would even bother CONSIDERING to puff out a chest.

Beat Ohio State. Ha. Sure. But the Big Ten Championship is next week and Iowa is strong or someone is looking for revenge. No puff here.

Playoff?  It's getting silly now. But I think the point is made right?  

Go undefeated, beat Ohio State, win the Big Ten championship, beat Alabama in the National Championship... then MAYBE, I'd consider getting a little chesty.

Too much scar tissue on these wounds.

Joined: 12/14/2011

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Yost Ghost

September 23rd, 2021 at 8:49 PM ^

So you're saying unless they win the whole thing you're not going to feel prideful exuberance?

If they beat OSU on their way to a B1G Championship and a playoff appearance, that would be enough for me.

Win the Natty, even better but not required.

Hell, OSU hasn't won a national championship since 2014 and that was only the second time this century.

We all have scar tissue, those that have followed the team longer may have more than others. Knowing what we had in the 90's early 00's would make just a playoff trip very sweet indeed. It might allow us to dream lofty dreams about this program once more.

Joined: 01/18/2011

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Wolverinefan84

September 23rd, 2021 at 11:26 PM ^

Hell after last year I'd be getting plenty chesty after a win in Madison, and super chesty if we get the W in east lansing.. I agree this Wisconsin & MSU team may not be as strong as advertised, but winning in Wiscy for the first time in 20 years and beating MSU, who every year makes our matchup their superbowl, would have me feeling niiiiiiice.

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CLord

September 23rd, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^

I'm still in the BPONE but do like what I'm seeing obviously.  We've had too many great September starts only to crumble down the stretch, and sadly, most teams remaining on our schedule seem improved except Ohio State, which is likely still too good for us.  We'll see.  Hoping, but not expecting.

Joined: 09/11/2011

MGoPoints: -6341

MRunner73

September 23rd, 2021 at 12:46 PM ^

The first 3 games have been very encouraging. The next 3 games will tell us so much more. At that point, the season will be half over and then we'll know whether to raise or lower expectations for the remaining 6 games.

Compared to OH State, our football team has only minor things to work out. Our team is so vastly improved from last year whereas the Buckeyes are at a cross road but seem too talented to crash and burn. Stranger things can happen and it has a lot to do with momentum. The Maize and Blue has it so far.

This weekend alone will tell us how good this team is if we can beat Rutgers by more than a 3 TD margin. The Wisc-ND game will tell us how good or bad our next opponent is. If Wisconsin gets stomped by ND, they risk falling out of the Top 25 rankings. 

Joined: 11/11/2018

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Couzen Rick's

September 23rd, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^

Sooooo I'm not convinced ND is a good team. They had a seemingly big win vs Florida State week 1 in overtime, but it's since come to light that FSU is hot doodoo. Additionally ND has looked very mediocre vs Toledo and Purdue, despite both being winning efforts.

I'm expecting Wisconsin to make a fine chutney out of ND this weekend, but I have no idea what that would mean beyond saying that Wisconsin is a pretty good team, which is what most of us thought going into the season.

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