Northwestern or Penn State?

Submitted by SpikeFan2016 on

This upcoming Saturday Northwestern plays Penn State at Noon in Evanston.

Given that our best win thus far came against Northwestern and going forward our best opportunity for a "good win", excluding The Game of course, is at Penn State, I was trying to decide who I'd like to win this one from the viewpoint of what's best for Michigan's resume.

Background: I expect this to be a close game. Penn State has looked better during October, but Northwestern definitely started the season on a stronger note. Also, the game is in Evanston and Penn State has only had to play one true road game (they were blown out in Columbus; they also lost a de facto neutral site game to Temple and barely squeaked by terrible Maryland in front of a mixed Baltimore crowd). Finally, last year Northwestern blew out Penn State in Happy Valley. 

 

On the one hand, you want our Northwestern win to look as strong as possible. Northwestern currently sits at 6-2 with remaining home games vs Penn State and Purdue, an away game at Wisconsin and a neutral site game at Solider Field vs. Illinois. Thus, Northwestern seems like they have a floor of 8-4 (Purdue and Illinois) and a ceiling of 10-2 (I view the PSU game a toss-up. Def will be underdogs in Madison, but they beat the Badgers last year as well). I think that Northwestern may need to win out to be ranked at the end of the season, especially if Duke remains unranked. It's possible that they'd be ranked at 9-3 if they lose closely to Wisconsin or PSU, but given how badly they were blown out by Michigan and Iowa, it may be difficult. 

 

On the other hand, it could be great to beat a ranked PSU team on the road during the final two weeks. However, I feel as though it's not certain that beating Northwestern would have PSU ranked given they still sit behind a few other teams in the "others receiving votes" category. Penn State also has a bye on November 14th, so they don't get a chance to boost themselves the week before. Also, as much as it pains me to say it, I see almost no chance that PSU beats Sparty in East Lansing to close the season, so, assuming that we beat them (don't want to think about the other way around, even though it's definitely possible) there's no way they'd finish ranked. Finally, Northwestern beating Penn State could leave the Nittany fanbase in a sour state over a long two weeks (because of the bye) that may damage the energy/emotion in the White Out. Any lessening of the crowd intensity, even if it's marginal, could bode well for our offense. 

Overall, I am inclined to root for Northwestern. What do you think?

SpikeFan2016

November 1st, 2015 at 3:30 PM ^

Well, I would consider Evanston road wins as the least significant of any Big Ten stadiums for teams like Michigan. Even so, the Temple game is different. That would be like if Wayne State had a D1 team that played at Ford Field against Michigan. Temple definitely turned out to be a good team, but going into that game Penn State was a huge favorite which led to a very large PSU presence. 

 

By the same token, do you count MSU's win at Western as a true road win? It technically is, but I view it as a de facto neutral site game. 

CarrIsMyHomeboy

November 1st, 2015 at 3:25 PM ^

In a future world where Michigan also tops PSU, I don't think either outcome differs from the other. But in this world, where one extant hypothesis is that Michigan peaked early in the season, I'll feel a lot better about the PSU game if M returns to mid season form and/OR NU murderizes the Nits.

Blau

November 1st, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^

Penn State. 

They're in our division, the game will be high profile at night and I'm still not over how much I hate them from the Paterno/Sandusky era. Beating them will give us great confidence going into OSU.

UMForLife

November 1st, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^

I want PSU to lose to NU and beat Sparty. Probably won't happen, but that would make our win against PSU look good and our win against NU even better. And I like NU more than I like PSU.

Eye of the Tiger

November 1st, 2015 at 3:32 PM ^

Northwestern for moral reasons. I can never wish anything good for a fanbase that cares more about the reputation of their former coach than the fact that many kids were sexually abused and that it was swept under the rug.




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UPMichigan

November 1st, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^

I didn't read the comments but we need to beat a good penn state team to make any movement in the polls. We aren't moving up any further in the polls from having beat NW




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Bambi

November 1st, 2015 at 3:36 PM ^

Michigan's biggest concern right now, outside of obviously winning, is being ranked as highly as possible in the College Football Playoff Poll. If Michigan is going to make the B1G Title Game, they will have to win that tiebreaker. If Michigan, OSU and MSU all have one conference loss and all go 1-1 against each other, which seems to be the most likely scenario where Michigan can make the B1G title, the College Football Playoff Poll is the tiebreaker that will determine who makes the B1G Title Game from the East.

Michigan will be at a huge disadvantage because we'll have 2 losses in this scenario against MSU and OSU's 1 loss. But we won't have lost since October, while MSU and OSU will have lost in the last couple weeks. No one will drop us down in polls because the Northwestern win is less impressive now but if Penn State is 8-2 going into our game against them and ranked, and we beat them, it wil help our resume. If we have that, plus a win over OSU in the last week, we might have enough momentum in the polls to pass OSU and MSU.

The only scenario where this doesn't matter and we still make the B1G Title Game is if MSU loses twice. If MSU loses @ OSU and one other game, and we beat OSU, then we will make the title game based on our head to head tiebreaker over OSU. And it is possible. MSU has games @ Nebraska and vs Penn State left. They'll be favored in both, but they haven't looked great as we all know as a loss is definitey possible. Nebraska isn't nearly as tough as we thought they would be, especially after this weekend, but a night game at Nebraska is never easy. The final game of the season for them is Penn State. If that were in Happy Valley I'd feel much more confident about a potential loss there.

Muttley

November 1st, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^

the best chance of a non-OSU team to upset MSU, even though the game is in East Lansing.

Unless Nebraska can shrug off its funk to muster a one last gasp, backs against the wall effort  against MSU this Saturday night in Lincoln.  (C'Mon, Mike Riley!  Save your job!)

Avon Barksdale

November 1st, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^

If they win, and we win the next two weeks, we will both be 8-2. We'd be ranked around #10 and Penn State would be around #20 or so. Gameday would either be there or in the Big 12 with TCU vs OU or Baylor vs Ok State.



It would be a big November resume builder to beat an 8-2 Penn State team on the road.

Mr Miggle

November 1st, 2015 at 7:37 PM ^

I'm more concerned with our resume at the end of the regular season. Unless PSU beats MSU, (in which case this game matters much less), they're still a four loss team whose only decent win would be against NW.

It would be nice to have two signature wins on our resume. A 38-0 win over a 10-2 NW team that's beaten Stanford and whose only other loss is to an undefeated Iowa, looks pretty damn good.

LSAClassOf2000

November 1st, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^

First and foremost, most models would not give Northwestern a lot of hope versus Penn State - the last time I checked Massey, for example, that model was projecting 36% for Northwestern's win probability, so there is that. I can only guess at the commitee's logic, but I tend to think that if Northwestern pulls that out somehow and then we in turn beat Penn State, you get two wins that look at least reasonably good within the conference. I could be way off there, but the next few weeks of conference play will definitely be interesting. 

BlueKoj

November 1st, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^

Rooting for NW. Tied in the division with PSU so losses by them are good. UM and PSU compete for recruits so losses by them are good. Generally, will root against division foes in crossover games.

DoubleYost

November 1st, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^

The answer is obvious.. We want Northwestern to win. Gives PSU a loss and we'll have our chance to shock the world last week in November




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Leonhall

November 1st, 2015 at 4:00 PM ^

really sure I give a shit. We just need to focus on improving each week. We aren't going to the playoffs or anything so lets just focus on us and getting better!

SpikeFan2016

November 1st, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^

MSU is a TERRIBLE matchup for Penn State.

 

MSU's defensive strength (the line) matches up perfectly with PSU's offensive weakness (OL), and MSU's offensive strength matchs up against the weaker half of PSU's defense (their secondary isn't as good as their line). Penn State's offensive strength is its run game which will face difficulty vs. MSU's front seven. Plus, the game is in EL.

 

If MSU is going to lose in the regular season in a non-OSU game, it will be in Lincoln. 

NittanyFan

November 1st, 2015 at 6:04 PM ^

he's started 34 games in his career --- the last 3 are the 2nd (Illinois), 3rd (Maryland), and 6th (Ohio State) best in his career in terms of single-game passer rating.  

(the best game was the 2013 finale at Wisconsin)

He also has the 2nd-lowest interception rate (per pass attempt) in the B1G behind Connor Cook.

I'm not saying he's Tom Brady 2.0, but things have gotten better after a very rough start to 2015.