August 17th, 2021 at 12:11 PM ^
"Can't believe that's all there is, we need to land a few more of these guys to maintain a top 15 class."
The cold, hard reality is this is going to be a very challenging year recruiting-wise for a ton of reasons: 2-4 record last year, perception that Harbaugh is on the hot seat and may be gone after 21, new assistants, unhappy ex-players, and so on. But we can turn things back around this year (I'm thinking 10-3) then next year I think we'll see recruiting come back to normal as well as all of the reasons this year will be a recruiting struggle will be gone.
I actually have faith they will do just that. I think we're going to surprise a lot of people this year.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^
Hope you're right, I'm at 6-6 for our baseline.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
Looks like the Mendoza line to me.
August 17th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
Underrated comment
August 17th, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
6-6 I think would be a pretty big disappointment (not that it's unreasonable to anticipate disappointment).
To me I think a reasonable floor is 7-5 if things go about according to plan, with the tough-luck bounces going to our opponents.9-3 if the lucky breaks side with us. 6-6 to me is about as likely as 10-2.. Both certainly possible, but on the far end of each spectrum in terms of how well or poor the season will turn out in lieu of a total program meltdown (which I am not expecting).
I agree with mgo - I don't think this team can win the B1G East, but I do think they are going to be a lot better than people think they will be. 10-3 or 9-4 after the bowl game would be my prediction.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
I am optimistic, too. I think we will exceed all lowered expectations. I love your 10-3 projection.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:22 PM ^
I think we're going to surprise a lot of people this year.
I oscillate between dark 6-6 pessimism on one end and a strange (for me) optimism that we're going to do just what you predict on the other, with most of my time spent in 8-4 territory.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^
I generally have a hard time seeing more than 6-6, but then I think that's pessimistic. Michigan is not as talented as OSU, at the risk of stating the painfully obvious, but they're still more talented than most of the teams on their schedule. 8-4 wouldn't require anything extraordinary to happen.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
Here's how I get there Eric. And you know what's funny about my predictions? Not ONE of the nine pre-bowl wins would be considered an upset as of today's betting lines.
WMU - W
Washington - W
N Illini - W
Rutgers - W
@ Wisconsin - L
@ Nebraska - W
Northwestern - W
@ MSU - W
Indiana - W
@ PSU - L
@ Maryland - W
OSU - L
Bowl Game - W
August 17th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
Other than the bowl game (because we're usually punching above our weight class, it seems) I mostly agree with your list. A 9-3 regular season, worst case scenario 7-5, ceiling of 10-2.
The most likely losses are definitely @Wisconsin and vs. osu. @Penn St is winnable--- they struggled last season too. But the Washington, Indiana, and Northwestern games are no gimmes; I'm just glad they're all home games.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^
The most likely losses are definitely @Wisconsin and vs. osu. @Penn St is winnable--- they struggled last season too. But the Washington, Indiana, and Northwestern games are no gimmes; I'm just glad they're all home games.
MSU is basically a lock win because we beat them half the time and they beat us last time. /s
August 17th, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
This isn't even that far-fetched. IU will be tough but we get them at home. NW may also be decent but again we get them at home. Harbaugh, funny enough, has never lost @MSU, and they don't figure to be all that great this year.
Everything else is not all that questionable imo. Washington isn't going to be great.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
So essentially we lose every meaningful game except for Sparty. 10-3 never looked so meaningless when your three losses are Wiscy, PSU and OSU.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
Michigan will have more talent than 9 teams, comparable talent to 2 teams, and less talent than 1 team.
Win the games you should.
August 17th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Just questioning whether you think Michigan has clearly better talent than one of Washington, Wisconsin, and PSU. I doubt you are picking PSU. IMO, I cannot say that Michigan is clearly more talented than either of Washington or Wisconsin. And even where Michigan has a supposed talent advantage, it is less experienced or talented at the key QB position.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
I'm determined to set expectations so low that it's not possible to be disappointed.
Michigan loses the opener in a close game, then gets blasted by Washington.
The NFL-level talent on the roster starts focusing more on their individual NIL deals than the team.
The non-NFL-level talent starts openly revolting, asking why they're risking exposure to COVID at practice and in games just to line the pockets of the 1%-ers on the team with lucrative NIL deals.
Wisconsin blows Michigan out and makes history by winning a game, getting over 600 yards on offense, all while attempting precisely zero passes. Wisconsin gets more yards from their defense on fumble/INT returns than Michigan gets on offense.
After Wisconsin, NFL-level talent is in full "fuck it" mode and are literally wearing ads on their jerseys like Nascar cars. High profile player gets gloves that form an "M" when he puts his hands together. Except it's not a block 'M', its the McDonald's golden arches.
The iconic photo of the season is a 7-player pile up of crashed Michigan bodies that looks like an epic Nascar wreck because everyone has ads slapped all over their bodies.
Michigan finishes 1-11. Jim Harbaugh fired but goes on to get paid millions of dollars to be a Lululemon spokesman.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:31 PM ^
My pessimism goes much lower than 6-6, I see 2-4 and with a roster I don't feel is as talented as last year's and I can think we could be a lot worse than 6-6. But 6-6 is my baseline and I do think we can see a lot of improvement so 7 or 8 wins seems totally reasonable too.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
Besides Cam McGrone and Carlo Kemp, who from last year's roster who played most of the season did we lose? Giles Jackson doesn't feel like a major loss. Milton? McNamara felt like an upgrade.
We're more talented in terms of what will be on the field. Hutchinson--back and healthy; Hayes--back and healthy. Everyone else +1 year, with Daxton Hill potentially playing CB.
Ambry Thomas and Nico Collins were already out to start the year.
I just don't see 6-6 with this roster unless our QBs crap the bed and our DTs and CBs are turnstiles.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
Kwite Paye played 4 games last season, despite not getting a lot of sacks he had a spectacular year for pressuring the QB. Best pass rusher by far. And Kemp was the best DT by far, and McGrone was the best LB by far.
I like the young guys too, but we did lose our presumed starting center to transfer. And we did lose 3 of our top 6 pass receivers and 3 of our top 5 rushers. And Jackson was far and away one of the best return man we've had in years.
Losing Milton is no loss, it's a positive, but McNamara is still pretty unproven. Mayfield only played a game and a half, we'll be fine without him. Ben Mason was versatile and will be missed, but is replaceable.
Also, a new scheme on defense we don't yet have the right personnel for. Not to mention we play 5 ranked teams.
Hopeful the young guys will shine, but we don't have a lot of proven top end talent on this team, we have a lot of potential though.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
I just don’t get it when folks say they can’t see 6-6 (or worse). I am on high alert and extremely fucking worried. Take a look at what Western is bringing back. They’re a good team. Washington will be a test. I see that as a toss up. The Northern Illinois QB carved us up with Sparty last year. Doesn’t make me feel good. And there’s not a single B1G game I confidently chalk up as a win. Unless we see things drastically improved, we are on par with Rutgers/Maryland/Nebraska with all other teams having a medium to strong case that they are ahead of us.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
I'm worried, but there were some very specific circumstances why Michigan did so poorly last year(Collins and Thomas sitting out, Hutchinson hurt, Brown not putting a safety over Gray, strength of schedule with new QB's, etc...). Short story is that I don't think we will get that "unlucky" again.
I do think your high alert is justified and you might be right, but looking at the schedule, I see a lot of wins and some maybes with only two almost sure bets to lose(Osu and Wisconsin). I may actually be more high on McNamara then most(plus what should be a stacked O-Line and RB room) and am optimistic that McDonald will have our defense more prepared to confuse opponents then Don Brown. So all of that.
August 17th, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^
I'm not worried at all... think back to Harbaugh's first few seasons with a young engergetic staff.... he was 10-0 with a young Speight, too. After he had his father return home, and began to hire much older staff who couldn't recruit, things began to go sour slowly. Its been purged, and it is a new beginning again, and am looking forward to it.
August 17th, 2021 at 3:16 PM ^
I'm cautiously optimistic too. The roster's still quite talented, the staff is reasonably talented...we should bounce back to being an 8-10 win team.
I'm still going to brace to be kicked squarely in the balls though
August 17th, 2021 at 4:14 PM ^
mGrowOld, I'm encouraged by your optimism. And I hope it is based in reality.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
we need to land a few more of these guys to maintain a top 15 class.
Why's that? What happens if they get a top 15 class?
August 17th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
They get fans to not complain about not having a top 15 class. On the flip side they do then get fans complaining about not having a top 10 class. So basically a wash and the fans will complain no matter what.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:10 PM ^
I like how recruiting rankings matter
Until My Team doesn't get good recruiting rankings
August 17th, 2021 at 3:51 PM ^
When Michigan has players lifting the B1G championship trophy then I'll know they signed the right guys. I don't need to be spoon-fed a bunch of fluff about how the next group of kids will be the ones to get it done. I'll be watching if they ever do.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
Also, we get fans complaining that we don't play at a level befitting of a program that pulls in top 15 classes. If we pull in worse classes, expectations are lower. Harbaugh playing 4D chess.
August 17th, 2021 at 7:18 PM ^
Mathematically, better players.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
I'm curious to see how these rankings will change after the high school season plays out. For many recruits, it will be the first time that scouts will see them in a game situation in a couple years
August 17th, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^
I agree. So much has been impacted over the last 16 months. The players all going for one year and movement will occur.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:44 PM ^
To get the #1 recruiting class for 2023 we have to start the year 0-5.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:46 PM ^
I just realized something HUGE. The best QB on Ohio State's roster, Quinn Ewers, is unranked.
- He is not in the Rivals 250 for 2022, because he reclassified to 2021.
- He wasn't ranked in the final 2021 class either, because he only recently reclassified.
Holy shit. We're gonna own this rivalry soon!
August 17th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
I like your way of thinking delusional thinking.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
Win and they will come.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^
They will come then we win.
August 17th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
I was hoping that the "underrated" guys our coaches evaluated and got commitments from would show up, but sadly not
August 17th, 2021 at 3:38 PM ^
Camp bumps mostly. If our commits were good evaluations you the staff, then they’ll show out in their seasons and move up in the rankings then.
Still do think Myles Pollard is a top 250 player based on how hard other top programs were after him.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
Just can’t do it anymore. I am sticking with my prediction of 3-9. The talent is there on offense but Gattis is a joke and Cade will be a shell of himself because Harbaugh will be in his head telling him he can’t make mistakes.
August 17th, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
3-9 is in fact the floor. I don't see us going 3-9, but it's more possible than 10-3 IMO.
August 17th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
I disagree. And right now Vegas disagrees as we are a betting line favorite in each of the nine regular season wins I predict we'll get.
I think, and the betting pros also think, that Michigan isnt going to be nearly as bad as our fans fear we'll be. In fact we both think they'll actually be kinda good!
August 17th, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^
Vegas sets the lines to win money. They always make big money on Michigan fans over valuing their team.
August 17th, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
agreed...its more of a gauge if anything else.
Michigan started the spring with an O/U of 8... its now dropped to 7.5 because too many people were betting on the under and Vegas moved the line to get more people to bet the over.
August 17th, 2021 at 9:37 PM ^
7.5 is about right. I don't have data to back in up but Vegas always seems to overvalue us with reputation and preseason hype = money.
August 17th, 2021 at 7:13 PM ^
I've been saying 6-6 for a while, and haven't seen much (anything) to change my mind...
Wisconsin game will be telling for me at least to see how they handle a big away crowd (assuming there isn't some unfortunate shift in the current covid situation).
August 18th, 2021 at 6:40 AM ^
I think all this talk of 6-6 or worse is everyone's way of being overly excited about 8-4 and another bowl game in Florida. I really think Michigan should be better than that just based on talent but as we have seen talent at Michigan doesn't always translate to wins on the field. Maybe the new blood on the coaching staff changes that. I am optimistic but ready to be crushed. Go Blue!
August 18th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
Incidentally, MSU's QB moved up to #105, really wish we would have gotten in on him as he was one of the top guys at the Elite 11. Denegal is falling in the rankings fast, but I still think he has potential if he gets his mechanics and throwing motion sorted out.