MSU's terrible pass defense
Hey all. I don't usually start threads but I'm really surprised to see so little discussion of how abysmal MSU's pass defense has been this year. I know we're supposed to not show disrespect and all but the facts are the facts: MSU is dead last in the B1G and 121 out of 130 teams in all of FBS in pass yards allowed a game. Since I'm not finding much coverage of this anywhere, I'd like to post a couple thoughts and a prediction:
1) As much as I love our run game, this particular game seems like one where we should be using the pass to open up the run. Watching film of MSU, it seems like they sell out their (stout) front seven to take out the run but it also seems like there are tons of easy yards to be had on screens and quick throws.
2) I am a bigger fan of Cade than most (so take my bias into account) but I think this is a game where he could really shine. I know he's missed a few key passes here or there (that one 3-and-out drive vs. Rutgers comes to mind) but I feel like his accuracy and effectiveness increases when his sample size increases.
3) I get why many of you would be skeptical that Harbaugh/Gattis would go to a pass-heavy approach after putting so much emphasis on establishing the run so far. But I also think Harbaugh and co don't get enough credit for opening up the playbook in big games. I'm not saying we'll go full Air-Raid but I would not be surprised to see way more passes than we have in other games.
Prediction: I know I'm alone on this but I predict that our coaching staff is preparing to open things up this weekend. I think they know MSU will be able to hit a few big plays and that they will plan to try to match them with a little explosiveness of their own. And I know I'm WAY alone in this: I think Cade is up to the challenge and that this is a game that plays to his strengths--identifying the right call at the line and attacking MSU's weaknesses.
P.S. Please delete and shred this entire post if it rains buckets on Saturday.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:41 PM ^
Doesn’t matter how bad msu pass defense is, we don’t have the qb, playcalling or the wrs to take advantage. Msu is actually better prepared to take advantage of our secondary. Also, it looks like it’s gonna rain all day Saturday so throwing may not be the best option for either team. If it’s comes down to just relying on the ground game, we have a better rushing attack than msu...
October 27th, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
Weather Underground is saying 20% chance of rain around kickoff (0.00in/hr). Looks like, as of now, there is rain in the overnight forecast and should stop by breakfast.
October 27th, 2021 at 9:33 PM ^
Weather Underground??
October 27th, 2021 at 11:13 PM ^
Oh, it's a real thing. Unrelated to the 70s activists (or terrorists, if you prefer).
https://www.wunderground.com/
It's a brand naming choice akin to this which is apparently NOT people. But they would say that...
October 27th, 2021 at 11:53 PM ^
I think I'd rather drink the original soylent green.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:32 AM ^
And both have U of M ties! Go Blue!
October 28th, 2021 at 7:28 AM ^
Soylent is the best, fucking lifesaver
October 28th, 2021 at 9:14 AM ^
Looks like it’s about twice as expensive as Premier, but I have to try the mint chocolate. If it tastes anything like Ande’s, I’m all over it.
October 27th, 2021 at 7:13 PM ^
". . . gonna rain all day Saturday . . ." Is that the forecast for PSU v Illinois at The Big House?
October 28th, 2021 at 12:33 AM ^
Because we totally didn’t come out throwing during another big road noon game in a hostile environment in Madison earlier this year? It seemed to me like we threw it more than ran on our first few drives in that game along with a lot of aggressive 4th down go for it attempts. But sure, go ahead with the lazy “Gattis turtle” takes. I’m convinced we’ll have the right game plan because I was so impressed with the Wisconsin game plan.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
Wonder if our quarterback can make all the throws in order to take advantage of MSU's weak secondary?
October 27th, 2021 at 5:45 PM ^
4 verts all game long
October 27th, 2021 at 11:13 PM ^
Let's turn the tables on them from last season's game. Throw a bunch of prayers against single coverage and hit on 75% of them.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^
I predict this will be yet another game where Michigan is unable to take advantage of an abysmal pass defense.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
Eh. MSU's numbers may look worse than the actual product. Western Kentucky has the #1 pass offense in the country. Miami is probably the game that looks the worst, when they allowed 388 yards in a game that was competitive into the 4th quarter, but since then they've been decent.
What I agree with is that our success in this game likely depends on our ability to leverage the passing game. Whether that means we just hit a big play or two or actually throw the ball 40 times doesn't really matter--if it opens up the run game, we win. If we can't run well but get big plays from the passing game, we can win. If it isn't enough of a threat to soften the MSU run defense or score points on its own, this game will be very, very tough to win.
October 27th, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^
Despite their great passing attackWKU isn't a good team and they don't play good teams. MSU should never have given up that many yards passing to them.
October 27th, 2021 at 9:48 PM ^
Go Tops! Fuck MSU!!
October 27th, 2021 at 10:15 PM ^
Maybe, maybe not. They have played nobody with an offense. Washington is one spot behind Miami in offensive FEI. Western Michigan is 29th, only 6 spots behind W Kentucky. They've won two of their last four games after gaining less than 250 yards on offense. Their numbers have been mediocre or worse and haven't even been challenged, really.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:50 PM ^
Agreed. They seemed to test NW's pass defense a lot last week early in the game, just went away from it as the run game was working so well and a couple of pass opportunities didn't connect. Wouldn't be surprised to see them test MSU's secondary a little at the start of the game and see what they can get.
October 27th, 2021 at 9:26 PM ^
"didn't connect" is about as kindly as you could have put that.
October 27th, 2021 at 10:22 PM ^
I disagree. Cade has put a ton of passes on the money this year.
October 28th, 2021 at 9:15 AM ^
Irrelevant to the point about those particular passes, and there are a bunch of variables on them, not just the QB.
You Cade Karens need to step back from your mgoboard culture war.
It's becoming difficult to say anything about the passing game, or in this case just a couple of plays, without someone coming along to test whether it might impinge on the ideology enough to require comment-cancellation.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
Their pass defense is actually pretty good if you look on a yards per attempt basis. It’s only bad when you look at the total yards. Teams are attempting more passes against MSU. Only one team has had more pass attempts against them, and that’s Hawaii. At 6.07 yards per attempt, MSU’s pass defense is in the top 15.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:04 PM ^
This was the first thing I thought of. Thanks for saving me a Google search.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
Good shit, Hail.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:58 PM ^
Great point. Sparty gives up yards in between the 20's. They play that bend don't break. However, they tighten the screws in the red zone or when needed. They will gladly give up yards and hold teams to FG's.
October 27th, 2021 at 8:24 PM ^
But that’s also misleading. They’ve faced a lot of dink-and-dunk offenses. Given the passing attacks they’ve faced, they really shouldn’t have given up so many total yards. If their opponents are attempting a ton of passes, that means MSU’s D isn’t getting off the field.
October 27th, 2021 at 9:52 PM ^
Or it could mean that MSU has generally been leading in games and teams need to pass to come back. That’s often the case when you are a decent team. It doesn’t seem to me that MSU’s pass defense is the glaring weakness that OP has indicated.
October 28th, 2021 at 6:45 AM ^
That wasn't the case in their games against Nebraska and Indiana. Those were dogfights. Their Miami game was also close for three quarters.
Besides, there are lots of top 25 teams that have led most of their games and their pass defenses aren't this bad.
October 28th, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
Joel Klatt disagrees with you:
October 29th, 2021 at 12:02 AM ^
How do they look for a full game when you watch them week in and week out? I'm honestly asking, because I haven't paid much attention to them. Do they give up easy short stuff repeatedly, or is it a handful of big plays? Must be the former or they wouldn't have so many attempts available to put on them.
So then the damning stat is that MSU leaves offenses on the field for long methodical drives. I'm not saying Cade is going to perform surgery on Michigan State's defense, but what you're describing does make it sound possible to do.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^
BTB offers some good arguments and I think most will agree with you. All and CJ, Baldwin, and Wilson could be the difference makers on Saturday. Cade will be fine if the line keeps him clean. Cade is widely credited for being an excellent pre-snap read QB. That will be a big problem for MSU. Add Corum into the mix as a playmaking safety valve and you create all kinds of matchup problems for MSU.
Overall, I agree with your assessment. This game will highlight Cade and the receivers in a positive way and lead to our win on Saturday.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:39 PM ^
Those guys will need to execute but if the run game opens play action it’ll be easier to execute. They got kind of beat up in the PAP game against Nebraska and IU. Their corners aren’t bad but they play soft a lot. Cades shown an ability to hit short throws near the sticks so it may actually work out. My big concern is their pass rush on obvious passing downs. They can get after the QB a bit.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:58 PM ^
"to not show" = split infinitive
October 27th, 2021 at 8:13 PM ^
Winston Churchill on split infinitives: "This is the kind of bloody nonsense up with which I will not put."
October 27th, 2021 at 8:46 PM ^
That was regarding ending sentences with prepositions. ?♂️
October 27th, 2021 at 6:06 PM ^
“Missed a few key passes here or there”
He’s 60th in completion percentage and 66th in YPA. This needs to improve. Hopefully that starts this weekend.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:07 PM ^
It doesn't matter, they will be lights out on Saturday!
That's just the way it works!!!
October 27th, 2021 at 6:08 PM ^
I’m not on the bench Cade bandwagon yet but his last two games have worried me. I’m not sure where his deep ball touch went but he needs to find it soon. Can’t justify playing 10 vs 11 in the run game if he can’t hit those throws, many of which are wide open
Now, if it does rain so much that passing is limited then JJ is objectively the better choice.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:11 PM ^
I'm starting to gain faith in what this coaching staff is doing in prep each week. They really seem to be game planning to the other team's weaknesses. If they see a reason to expose the MSU secondary, I'm betting they put that into the game plan. They seem to be doing a good job of scheming away from a team's strength. At least to my untrained eye.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:16 PM ^
I'm with you, OP, even in the rain.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^
I'm hoping we see a pretty balanced attack with a heavy dose of play action deep shots
October 27th, 2021 at 6:19 PM ^
If they had a game similar to Wisconsin, I think they’d be fine. Feels like intermediate stuff, especially of PA, will be important.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:26 PM ^
I don't know that we need to or will throw the ball more in general. I hope we have a few more throws, of the into the end zone variety, in the red zone.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
Wisconsin held us to 105 yards rushing and our passing game was pretty solid . Cade throws better on the road in his career . Our tight ends will be used like the Nebraska game and Msu can’t cover tight ends . Huge advantage
October 27th, 2021 at 11:07 PM ^
To be clear, this Sparty defense is nothing like Wisconsin.
I get the disrespekt types but it's just not.
October 28th, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^
I've been clamoring for more throws to the tight ends. They are both so involved in the running game and with MSU likely to load up on the run, they should be able to slip behind the linebackers on a regular basis. Erick All has All-B1G potential--in fact, as a blocker he's already there. The guy is very athletic. It's time to exploit his talent to the max.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
Cade's throws look fine but they kind of float up there. I think that's why CBs are able to recover even when our WRs have a step or two. I had a sense that something wasn't quite right watching on TV, but it was obvious at the game on Saturday. I'm no QB guru, but it seems like he's putting touch on the ball in a situation where it's not necessary?
October 27th, 2021 at 7:08 PM ^
Or he just simply doesn’t have the arm strength to zip it in there on those long throws and he HAS to get air under it to get the distance. That could also explain the lack of an intermediate passing game from Michigan.
October 27th, 2021 at 8:51 PM ^
This. I love Cade but his arm strength is just okay. He REALLY has to push the ball to get it across the field. His tosses will never just zip to the receiver like Joe Milton's or JJ's. But that's fine. It just means he has to be more cautious and calculated, and basically always throw before the receiver is ready if he wants it to arrive on time. And like you said, I think that's partly why we don't throw over the middle a whole lot unless it's a wide open tight end or a WR open on a crosser. He'll never really be able to zing it into a tight window over the middle because his throws are always gonna float just enough to give the defender enough time to make a play. This plays into why he relies on pre-snap reads as well. He simply wouldn't have enough zip to throw a tight window pass if he's reading well after the snap. Which again is fine, as long as he's aware of this, which he definitely is. And that's not to mention that he's a bit short too, so passes over the middle are at a higher risk of being batted down, which we saw happen often earlier in the season.