The most BPONE 2020 Michigan Coaching search scenario
There has been a lot of talk as of late about a possible coaching replacement. Harbaugh is not getting the job done, and this is the worst Michigan has looked in recent memory. Many reasons can be sited as to why this team is so bad, and maybe a new coach is the answer. While I do agree, this concerns me for a myriad of reasons. Maybe it is the new lockdowns compounded by the previous 2020 lockdowns affecting my mood. Maybe it is that I am so fully immersed in BPONE that I am thinking of getting my mail forwarded here. Maybe there is some Michigan version of the Curse of the BIlly Goat, and no matter what happens, things will not work out in Michigan’s favor. Maybe it was because I indifferently turned off the game before the end of the 1st quarter, and instead played several games of Chickapig with my kids before bedtime. Whatever the explanation, here are my thoughts on the most likely outcome of a Michigan coaching search.
Once Harbaugh is let go/quits/retires/steps down/mutually parts ways, there will be a plethora of coaching candidates examined in detail. People finally decide that the “Michigan Man” comment was not a mandate that Michigan hire someone with a Michigan connection, causing an emboldening where the A.D. is able to branch out and look for people outside of the program. After a lot of searching, they will probably decide on Luke Fickell. He understands the big ten, he has been successful, he is a good recruiter, the move to Michigan will be a step up, and he understands Ohio State and may give Michigan some advantage in the Rivalry. This is all great, and the Michigan Faithful are nervously optimistic that the program will soon be back on track.
In the meantime, candidate B, C, D, and E all either resign with their teams with a Michgian is interested bump in salary, or move on to other programs. A majority of those who are not selected by Michigan will go on to have great careers at their new schools.
At the last few days before a contract is signed, Luke Fickle will change his mind and decide to return to Cincinnati. Rumors will abound, with many clamoring that he never intended to come here, and it was a masterful troll job orchestrated by current and former OSU coaches and alumni. There are a lot of people upset about this, but there is no way to prove that it was the plan all along, while the cooler poopers proclaim from the top of their ivory towers built of championship trophies that our mothers were a hamster, and our fathers smelt of elderberries. Michigan will be left scrambling for a worthy candidate, and must settle for a B- hire. This lasts for a few years, where Michigan fans will be exactly back where we are now.
Tell me why I am wrong…
Please...
November 17th, 2020 at 8:46 AM ^
Thanks for writing this but why did you have to make it so emphatic?
November 17th, 2020 at 9:38 AM ^
Old guy eyes here. I find the bold text easier to read.
November 17th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
Same here... large font and bold +1
November 17th, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^
I tend to read large font more slowly. Weird. Makes me feel more dumber.
November 17th, 2020 at 11:24 AM ^
What?
November 17th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
HE SAID HE LIKES THE LARGE FONT!
November 17th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
Great, thanks for letting me know!
November 17th, 2020 at 4:58 PM ^
Yes. This. Pleases my 57 yr old eyes
November 17th, 2020 at 8:48 AM ^
Brady Hoke. Yet again walking from San Diego to Ann Arbor.
November 17th, 2020 at 8:49 AM ^
Luke Fickell is a B- candidate.
November 17th, 2020 at 9:17 AM ^
Yeah, I feel like he is benefiting from the fact that OSU is so dominant right now that there are tons of players in the state of Ohio that would otherwise end up at OSU, but since they can go into any state and recruit a top 100 player, they don't need to focus on Ohio much at all.
Not saying he's not a good coach, but his success can be deceiving since he may not have that sort of advantage somewhere else.
November 17th, 2020 at 9:38 AM ^
Some of those players that "otherwise end up at OSU" may end up at UofM.
November 17th, 2020 at 9:52 AM ^
Is our first choice of head coach really the only guy at OSU to lose to Michigan for the past 17 years? Who took a OSU team with plenty of talent and finished 6-7 only for many of the same players to go 12-0 when Meyer took over?
We want an offensive genius and recruiting savant to take over. Not a former DC who's only notable victories as a HC have been against Army, SMU, and UCF? What exactly is there to like about Fickell besides his ties to OSU and the BIG 10? The fact that he lost last year to OSU 42-0? Or that he is 3-6 against ranked opponents. All three of those wins against the teams above
He's had a total of four 4* recruits commit to his team since 2016. You think we get the left overs from OSU now? We'll be looking at getting the left overs from Penn State and MSU.
Michigan can and should do better than this... This type of resume would be good for a school like Iowa if Fickell wanted to make a jump into the BIG 10.
November 17th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
Good Points. Chasing after Fickell is like the opposite dynamic of needing a 'Michigan Man.' Let's see, who is the antithesis of a Michigan Man?? Ah, let's get Fickell! as if he's got some magic sauce from his one year filling in as head coach at Ohio (with less than sterling results) and a few years of success at Cincinnati playing less than best Div. 1 competition.
November 17th, 2020 at 9:26 AM ^
Clearly things aren’t working right now but I don’t think Fickell would be the answer.
November 17th, 2020 at 9:35 AM ^
I get negged every time I say this, but Matt Campbell is probably below this in the C+ range. I think Fickel may have more upside and Campbell has the higher floor. People bring up Iowa State as a horrible place to coach and while I don't think its great, I went to KSU and have watched them beat ISU every year even when KSU is having a bad year. I think he is a fine coach, but I don't believe he is putting UM over the hump. If UM wants 7-9 wins a year, he's probably your guy.
November 17th, 2020 at 9:50 AM ^
What about hiring Chris Klieman as a coach here? He won four championships at NDSU and has done a decent job at KSU. His teams seem well-coached. I'd wonder how he would fare at recruiting here.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:28 AM ^
I'm not sure he would be a good fit at UM either. He def seems like a small school type. He's done a nice job at KSU so far and I don't have too many complaints. I would have rather taken a risk with a younger position coach with recruiting chops at KSU, but he has been fine. Also, his buddy is the AD at KSU and he also came from NDSU. I'm not sure he would leave that situation for the pressures at UM. Def all speculation on my part.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:00 AM ^
Thank god, another reasonable voice here. Matt Campbell is a terrible prospect.
November 17th, 2020 at 11:22 AM ^
I'll preface this by saying I am fully ready to move on from the Harbaugh era are our 10 win ceiling.
With that said, if my options are 4-5 years of Matt Campbell, Luke Fickell, or Jim Harbaugh, i'm going with Harbaugh. If we move on from Harbaugh we NEED to make sure that replacement is an upgrade. I'd rather move forward with the 2021/22 recruiting classes, see how things shake out and see if Gattis and a new DC can get things going than seeing Campbell or Fickell, both of whom haven't proven to be better than Harbaugh at anything, to run the a middling big 10 team.
I would be only interested in Venebles as a HC if we either were able to retain Gattis (current players and recruits who were brought in for his system) or was able to make a home run offensive coordinator hire. We need a high octane offense in today's college football landscape.
November 17th, 2020 at 11:51 AM ^
Why was Harbaugh so successful at USD, Stanford, and San Francisco? I don’t understand what’s holding him back at Michigan? Is it having the wrong coaches on the staff? Is it recruiting kids who are overrated coming out of high school? The inability to develop kids? Changing OCs and scheme every couple years? A DC who can’t recruit on the defensive side?
Maybe keep Harbaugh, fire everyone else, start McCarthy next season, and build around an elite freshman QB.
November 17th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
People keep trying to rationalize keeping Harbaugh. The fact is the program has crashed into a brick wall with full airbag deployment. Harbaugh has no answers. He has said numerous times he has to coach better. Just like, you know, Matt Patricia. That's the answer when you don't know what the answer is. If he had any real ideas he would have instituted them a while ago. He is what he is. It ain't working and he ain't changing.
So the M powers that be may or may not make a change. But if he stays, even with new coordinators, it will just be more of the same. Let's not wishful thinking ourselves into believing he can return this program to even second best in the B1G East. Best we all be honest about it and move on. Said more in sorrow than anger.
November 17th, 2020 at 5:43 PM ^
Harbaugh was successful at those places because of great QB play and great assistant coaches.
November 17th, 2020 at 11:06 PM ^
Yeah, why can’t we get great assistant coaches like Tim Drevno and Pep Hamilton?
November 17th, 2020 at 10:08 AM ^
Matt Campbell is 28-17 in his last 45 games at Iowa State. That is a .622 winning percentage. The program has a .454 winning percentage as a whole. He has significantly improved that and this is his best team so they should finish strong too. Their SP+ rating has improved linearly from 78th the year before he got hired to 19th this year. Mario Cristobal is my top choice but Matt Campbell is a strong #2.
Jim Harbaugh is 28-17 in his last 45 games too btw.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
Yep, hes a fine coach and will probably have the same record as Harbaugh at UM. That's the point. If you want that, he's probably a safe bet, but he isn't getting UM over the hump. ISU isn't a great job, but they get KU, TT, OSU (up and down), TX (mostly down lately), WV, Baylor, and TCU. While some of those teams have decent years, they have been up and down during the time Campbell has been at ISU with a lot of really down years. Plus, he can't beat KSU. Again, he is consistent and I think he would do that at UM as well, but I don't think he's putting UM in the playoffs. I'm not even considering beating OSU. Plus, I don't think OSU would hire him.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^
You're supposed to win more games at Michigan than Iowa State. If you can win at Iowa State then logically you should be able to win more at Michigan due to better recruiting, resources, infrastructure, and literally everything else being better. It's like Dan Mullen at Miss State. He overperformed Miss States historical norm and then went to Florida and they have become a powerhouse again.
As far as beating OSU goes, Iowa State has beaten OU 7 times in their history. Matt Campbell has 2 of those wins so he is not just fattening up on the dregs (which you can't do at ISU because they are normally the dregs). If you can beat OU at ISU you can beat OSU at Michigan.
November 17th, 2020 at 11:43 AM ^
The counterpoint to that would be if you can beat Pete Carroll USC at Stanford, you can beat OSU at Michigan, right? Doesnt always translate
November 17th, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
His 2 losses have been by 10 and 1 point. Even when he doesn't beat OU they are in it to the end. In addition to those wins over OU they also have upset wins over #4 TCU and #6 WVU. His teams are able to battle and beat better teams on paper. That is good coaching.
November 17th, 2020 at 1:33 PM ^
Somewhat true I guess, but I would argue that it is vastly different beating PSU, MSU, and OSU than it is beating Big 12 teams. It isn't like he has dominated there. If he had, I would be thinking differently, but he isn't even beating KSU.
November 17th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
Its Iowa State, no one dominates there. Here are all the times they have finished the year ranked: 1976 and 2000. He has a better win % than every ISU coach since WWI.
November 17th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
My problem with Matt Campbell is his 3-3-5 defense. Between the Gerg experience and Don Brown's flirtation with it over the last two seasons, I want nothing to do with it moving forward.
November 17th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
It's a reasonable take. However, a few things to consider. For one, he is insanely young. He's turning 41 this month, and already has 9 full seasons, plus an interim, as a head coach. There is a real possibility we would be getting him on the way up on his career, rather than the way down. Also, he basically has Dan Mullen's resume pre Florida. I feel like if we don't hire him, some other big program will end up with him in a year or two.
Beyond him, there are few options with a solid history.
November 17th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^
OSU got Earle Bruce from ISU (after a term at OSU as an assistant). If memory serves me correctly, his nickname in Columbus was "Old 9 and 3", but he was 5-4 in The Game before being fired and replace by Wolverine legend John Cooper. Would similar results from Campbell be enough?
November 17th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^
He might be B-, but I don't think there are any B+ or above candidates out there at the moment.
I think the only way we get a coach we like is if we pull off another RR type coup, and poach a successful coach out of their existing successful situation.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^
Joe Brady, Lincoln Riley, and Mario Cristobal.
Joe Brady might accept because:
A. We could increase his salary by 5x the amount he makes now
B. Head coach at one of the most prestigous programs in the country is an upgrade from a coordinator position in the NFL.
C. Further opportunities to build his legend after only two years at LSU.
Lincoln Riley accepts because:
A. We have the resources to throw a mega offer at him that not many schools could rival.
B. An opportunity to prove he is an elite coach who can compete with elite competition (something the BIG 12 is lacking).
C. Would be given as much if not more resources to work with in Ann Arbor.
Mario Cristobal accepts because:
A. Everything that applies to Riley applies to Cristobal.
I would be up for Campbell or Fickell if they were absolutely dominating their weak conferences and recruiting above their weight but that is not the case. I don't want to settle for another Brady Hoke only to blow up the program again in 4-5 years.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^
Lincoln Riley? LMAO. Keep dreaming.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^
Riley is a pipe dream but Urban Meyer is widely discussed? If you were to throw $12 million at both Riley and Meyer, I would bet Riley would be more likely to accept. If he is worth that price is up for discussion.
Personally, i'd rather have a fun team to root for that occasionally disappoints than a slog of a team that only beats teams significantly less talented than them. If Riley were able to occasionally beat OSU (which he already has) and pump out heisman candidates then i'd be all for that.
November 17th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^
Cristobal is the new hotness. Gotta have him. Matt Campbell Is maybe a B quality candidate.
So, let's look at the head coaching jobs before the ones they currently have:
Chrisobal: 27-47 in six seasons at Florida International. Fired.
Campbell: 35-15 in five seasons at Toledo. Took a better job.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:51 AM ^
Riley keeps losing games he shouldn't, including to Klieman and Campbell.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:52 AM ^
Why isn't anyone talking about Brent Venables?
November 17th, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^
Because if he was gonna leave Clemson, he would've done it by now. It's looking like he's happy to be a Bud Foster type
November 17th, 2020 at 3:12 PM ^
At $2.5 million per. Why not? Who needs the aggravation of being the head coach when you're petting paid that kind of coin.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:57 AM ^
Riley has zero reason to jump from OU. He’s already at a blue blood program with a huge salary, low academic standards, an a much easier path to titles.
Oregon’s Nike money can easily match any salary offer. Also an easier path to titles. But it’s possible.
Brady made it clear he wants to be an NFL coach. He’s already on that track. And he’d bolt Michigan at the earliest chance. Non-starter.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:13 AM ^
My biggest concern is that the last two guys from the AAC to make the jump to P5 (Scott Frost and Mike Norvell) have underwhelmed, and before that it was Chad Morris, and Willie Taggart. The two big "success" stories I've seen recently are Matt Rhule and Tom Herman, which isn't...bad, but is starting to feel very Big 12-specific.
November 17th, 2020 at 8:50 AM ^
The most BPONE coaching search is if someone decides that Mark Stoops is the best candidate and we go get him.
November 17th, 2020 at 9:29 AM ^
The only coach I think I'd want is his big brother. Bob's only 60 and has the type of resume to make recruits want to honor their commitments and keep current players from transferring.
November 17th, 2020 at 9:33 AM ^
SO you want to replace a guy who the game has passed by with an even older guy who was under achieving his last few seasons at a better job before he retired and made way for a successor who immediately upgraded?
This is unwise.
November 17th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
Stoops went 22-4 with a CFP appearance and two conference titles in his last two seasons. He left on a pretty high note.
November 17th, 2020 at 8:49 PM ^
That was after Lincoln showed up and refurbished the offense. The Bob/Mike Stoops defense was such a tremendous disaster that it slashed their title chances to pieces. Is Lincoln coming along for this Lou Holtz-In-South-Carolina Bob Stoops to Michigan gig?