Michigan opens as a 20 point dog in The Game

Submitted by Zoltanrules on

Everyone knows Hoke is gone and I think the troops will rally and keep it within three TDs.

I'm all in for Michigan (and the points)! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!

Now who's with me?!

 

edit: per some requests, here are some prior spreads:

2011 UM -8.5  result  UM 40  OSU 34

2012 OSU -4   result OSU 26  UM 21

2013 OSU -17  result OSU 42  UM 41

2014 OSU opens at -20 to -19.5, I expect it to go to 17 ish again.

Bando Calrissian

November 23rd, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^

I look forward to the stunning revelation that this was all in fact a sort of rope-a-dope that went on three games too long, that Devin Gardner knows how to play quarterback, that Nuss can call a red zone offense, that Brady is actually wearing a headset implanted in his skull and possesses the wizardry to make points rain from the sky like locusts...

Yet we'll still lose by 20.

dothepose

November 23rd, 2014 at 6:26 PM ^

I just don't get why Michigan can't be smarter about Hoke. Florida did a good thing and can start their search. We don't need to pull another scenario like we did with Rich Rod and drag it out.  At least with Rich Rod the teams were getting better, Hoke is getting worse. There's no debate, just tell everyone that Hoke is done after this game, I hope with all my heart that we can pull out an upset of those stupid bastards down South.  I think we can keep it close for a half, but eventually our defense gets tired and our offense makes a mistake. Here's to a future where we are 20 point favorites!

KSmooth

November 23rd, 2014 at 6:32 PM ^

Be patient.  Unlike the post-Rodriguez nonsense, we won't have a bowl game to wait for (barring some freak occurence in Columbus at least)  Which means we'll be rid of Hoke in plenty of time to run a proper coaching search, and put in a decent bid on Harbaugh or some other top-tier candidate.

DrFeelGood

November 23rd, 2014 at 6:27 PM ^

We just lost to Maryland at home on senior day, and OSU is playing for an outside shot at the playoffs, in Columbus.  This will be a blood bath.  I'll give the points.

uminks

November 23rd, 2014 at 7:17 PM ^

Bo was off to the races with his new team in the first season. No excuses about rebuilding for BO. Of course it was easier to stock pile talent back in the 60s and 70s with the large number of scholarships

Hoke looks more like Bump heading into Columbus. But Bump was having a good year at 7-1 before meeting OSU. I think that line was only 13 points but Bump let Woody put 50 on our team. Bo used Woody's decision to poor it on as motivation to beat OSU at home in '69,

Tater

November 23rd, 2014 at 6:32 PM ^

I remember being at the Heisman Pose game and watching all of the OSU fannies leaving the seats at the beginning of the fourth quarter.  I remember wondering how one team could ever become so bad that they threaten the integrity of rivalry.  I actually wished it could be more of a rivalry again.

Now it is Michigan who is "that bad."  It really needs to stop next year.  I don't want to ever see Ohio State even think they can even up Michigan's advantage in all-time wins and losses.   The lead is only 13 games now.  It will probably be only 12 by this time next week.  It is time to make the right hire and give him the support needed to put Michigan back on top.

LDNfan

November 23rd, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^

This will be interesting...

Urban, unlike Tressel, will go out of his way to rub this in...he's going to take this opportunity to really make a statement for the ages. Its a toxic combination of a team geared towards scoring as many points as possible, a coach that is big on style points leading a team that needs those points to have a shot at a NC, playing at home infront of a rabid/nasty fanbase going up against a rival that has fallen way behind, has no identity or go-to performers and is mired in turmoil. 

I'm not sure I can bear to watch...and I've never felt that way....

Perkis-Size Me

November 23rd, 2014 at 6:42 PM ^

I want to believe Hoke will empty the playbook, throw everything he can at OSU, and I want to believe his team will fight to the end for its embattled coach. But OSU is fighting to get into the playoff. Meyer will be aiming for style points, so don't be shocked when the final score reads 63-17 OSU.

The defense will keep it respectable for a quarter or so, and then the offense, in its typical style, won't be able to get out of its own way. The penalties and turnovers will pile up, making easy points for OSU. The team won't quit on their coach, but at some point, they'll just have nothing left to give. Cheer up, folks. The Hoke era (hopefully) is almost over.



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Blue Durham

November 23rd, 2014 at 6:56 PM ^

Yeah, I suspect a 50-14 type score that Ohio State beat Michigan by in 1968. And that 1968 Michigan squad finished 8-2 and was a damn sight better than this team. The only question that remains is whether Michigan is able to hire the 2015 equivalent of Bo Schembechler.

titanfan11

November 23rd, 2014 at 6:57 PM ^

during the Maryland game when they mentioned Michigan's D is giving up like 2.9 per carry and was highly ranked nationally against the run...that OSU will gash them for like 350 on the ground.  Throw in a long touchdown throw to Devin Smith (and possibly Marshall), along with 6-8 sacks...and it seems more and more like 45-10.  

Don

November 23rd, 2014 at 7:24 PM ^

with a focus on the upset wins by poor Michigan teams. I then pondered the disparity between the two teams and programs this year.

In the long history of the rivalry, you will not find any upset win by Michigan over OSU when the actual disparity between the teams is as large as it is now. There have been other Michigan teams with losing records that beat OSU, but in each case those Ohio State teams were struggling as well.

Some are going to say "1969," but consider Michigan's overall record and trajectory that season. After losing to MSU in October, Michigan was 3-2, but then Wolverines went on an absolute tear and won their next four games 35-9, 35-7, 57-0, and 51-6. That's where they were when they played Ohio State. To say that we're not playing at that level now is a sad understatement of gigantic proportions.

Others might mention '93, when we were unranked facing a 9-0-1 OSU team that was ranked #5. However, we were 6-4 going into the game and had guys like Ty Law, Derrick Alexander, Tyrone Wheatley, Todd Collins, Mercury Hayes, Jon Runyan, Trezelle Jenkins, Trevor Pryce, and Jarrett Irons on the team.

So Hoke and the team can have this as a goal: if they pull out a win in Columbus, I think it will be the biggest upset win—not in terms of hype, but in terms of actual team quality—in the history of the rivalry.

If you're interested in looking for yourself: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan%E2%80%93Ohio_State_football_rival…

I bet it will be something like 58-10; the only thing that will keep it much closer will be Buckeye turnovers. Which isn't encouraging since we're dead last in the conference in causing turnovers, with a grand total of 5 fumbles recovered and 5 interceptions made. Not surprisingly, we're also last in turnover margin at -14.

As the IU game showed, OSU isn't invulnerable defensively, and we've shown occasional signs of being able to run the ball a bit. OSU's got a pretty good DL, and since none of our receivers command double coverage and none of them aside from Butt can catch the goddamn ball with any real reliability anyhow, OSU can crowd the LOS to take away the run and force Devin to throw the ball more than we'd want. That's a recipe for disaster.

flashOverride

November 23rd, 2014 at 7:37 PM ^

I agree. I want to find solace in history, but it's just not there. Watching mediocre Michigan teams beat undefeated OSU squads three years out of four will always be one of the highlights of my fanhood, but this team simply isn't comparable to the ones who pulled off those upsets. Those were good teams that had either some bad luck or tough, competitive games that just plain didn't go their way.

1993 - lost by four at home to a Notre Dame team that finished the season ranked #2. Lost by ten in East Lansing to a .500 MSU team, but that's never an easy place to win no matter how bad State is. Wheatley fumbling a kickoff really helped that game to unravel. The Illinois loss at home, I'll grant, was terrible. But the week before, Michigan had gone into Happy Valley and beaten a Lions team that finished in the Top 10. The fourth loss was by three points, in Madison, to a surprise Badger team who played in the Rose Bowl and also finished in the Top 10. 

1995 - six-point home loss to surprise B1G-champs Northwestern. Three-point loss in EL to Saban-coached bowl team. Ten-point loss to Top 15 Paterno squad, in a snow-filled Beaver Stadium. Lost Alamo Bowl by two to Texas A&M who also finished in the Top 15, and who were pretty much playing at home. 

1996 - lost by a point in Evanston, Wildcats finished in Top 20. Six-point road loss to horrible Purdue was pretty indefensible. Lost by 12 at home to Penn State team who finished ranked #7. Lost by three in Outback Bowl to Alabama team who finished #11.

I just don't think you can compare this team's resume. 

Ray

November 24th, 2014 at 12:10 AM ^

Nice analysis. I expect a long day given the relative capabilities of the teams and that OSU covets that outside chance at a playoff slot. Would be interesting to see though whether underestimation or let down ever played a role in any of those outcomes. Probably in1969. I go back to about 1980 and I can't remember a one--given the rivalry's capacity to inspire over performance I guess there aren't many. That said, I'm really hoping they go into this game expecting a pushover. Maybe we can surprise them.

BeatOSU52

November 23rd, 2014 at 7:17 PM ^

I am just hoping our players don't start a bunch of shit before the game in warm-ups. I have seen it happen too many times the last decade against OSU, only to then see our team then get their ass kicked.

LSAClassOf2000

November 23rd, 2014 at 7:24 PM ^

A way-too-early look at the matchup from TeamRankings:

Offense
Michigan Ohio St.
Yards/Play 5.2   6.7
Points/Play 0.319   0.580
Rush Play % 55.36%   60.71%
Pass Play % 44.64%   39.29%
Completion % 56.66%   64.29%
3D Conv % 38.19%   52.78%
RZ Scoring % 82.61%   83.02%
Defense
Michigan Ohio St.
Opp Yards/Play 4.4   4.7
Opp Points/Play 0.304   0.320
Opp Completion % 59.56%   55.07%
Opp 3D Conv % 36.97%   36.71%
Opp RZ Scoring % 80.65%   76.67%

 

Rodriguesqe

November 23rd, 2014 at 7:29 PM ^

I just guessed to my dad we'd be getting 3 touchdowns... so good job me I guess.

We just lost to Maryland but Indiana just gave OSU a run.  I won't bet, but if I did I'd take the points. Our  slow play calling and boring offense will lull OSU into a 27-9 snorer.

Am I the only one who's noticed how boring we are this year? Even if we were playing elite football it'd be annoying.

Don

November 23rd, 2014 at 7:42 PM ^

I can see 27-9, but at halftime. If OSU can go up to EL and hang 49 on a vastly better MSU defense than what we've got, the idea that we'll hold them to 27 down in the snakepit strikes me as highly unlikely, especially given that our offense is also greatly inferior to MSU's.

Meyer knows that a 27-9 snorer will kill any chance of getting into the playoff, and his team will know it too.