Michigan Monday up at the Ozone

Submitted by StephenRKass on

Michigan Monday is up at the Ozone.

LINK:  Michigan Monday:  the Land of 1,000 Breaks

Overview:

Every road conference win is a good win and Saturday night's 29-26 win at Minnesota (4-4, 1-3) for Michigan (6-2, 3-1) was no different, even if the Wolverines did look a bit odd along the way.
In the end, however, the Michigan defense won the game on a goal-line stand that should have been unnecessary, but thanks to the Gophers' buffoonery it absolutely was not. In a game that saw Minnesota's offense receive a number of baffling breaks, when they had to have a single yard, they just couldn't get it. Twice.
The weird parts came soon after that 14-3 lead, however, and then kept coming. Gopher quarterback Mitch Leidner was completing passes to falling receivers, receivers who were open simply because of the inaccuracy of the pass, and even one off of a Michigan defender's hands. We can call them flukes if you want, but they happened because the Wolverine defense didn't make the plays that were available to them, and that's the one thing a coach is going to ask of every single one of his players. Still, the most surprising part for me was how well Minnesota ran the ball — and they only ran for 166 yards and averaged 4.1 yards per carry — but don't tell me you weren't surprised by it either. The Michigan defense has set a standard for itself that now sees 166 yards on the ground as something wrong, and that's a very, very good thing. In the end, however, we can impugn Michigan's defense all we want for the 461 yards they gave up, but Minnesota had two shots from inside the 1-yard line to win the game and neither came close to getting into the end zone. For that reason alone, it was a very successful day for the Wolverine defense.

Offense:

I applaud Michigan trying whatever they can to get a running game going, from the reverses with receiver Jehu Chesson, to all of the different things they do with Jabrill Peppers. Jim Harbaugh recognizes that every little bit counts and the more explosion he can get to his offense, the easier everything else becomes.
Michigan is No. 110 in the nation in number of plays that gain 10 or more yards from scrimmage. They have just 92 such plays in eight games. They are tied with Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette and, most egregiously, Syracuse.
Of Michigan's 30-yard runs, two are by receiver Jehu Chesson, two are by De'Veon Smith, one belongs to tailback Ty Isaac and another to fullback Joe Kerridge. That's six total. Penn State running back Saquon Barkley and Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott each have five a piece. Heck, even OSU quarterback J.T. Barrett has two and he's carried the ball 63 fewer times.
The numbers are no better in terms of big plays in the passing game, which will surprise absolutely nobody reading this. Their 20 receptions of at least 20 yards is No. 97 in the nation. The five receptions of at least 30 yards is No. 121 in the nation, and bested by 39 individual wide receivers. Michigan is also one of 14 teams that have not had a 50-yard completion this season.

On Defense:

Minnesota attacked Michigan's safeties and linebackers in the passing game, which is something that I've been saying teams should do for a while now. Early in the game, every third down pass was aimed at a safety, and they were successful in picking up first downs.
The Gophers also caught linebacker Desmond Morgan in coverage against running back Shannon Brooks, which turned into a 40-yard gain on a wheel route. Though to term it "coverage" would be giving Morgan an enormous amount of credit. It was overall a pretty rough game for Morgan defending the pass and they attacked him on the sideline and over the middle.
Ross's first huge play came early in the fourth quarter when he sacked Leidner on third-and-7 from the Minnesota 23 for a 12-yard loss. The Gophers punted the ball from the 11-yard line, but it went out of bounds at their own 40-yard line. This left backup quarterback Wilton Speight with just a 40-yard drive in order to put the ball in the end zone, which was clearly a manageable number. Could he have done it from 80 yards? Because of the sack by Ross, we didn't have to find out.

When Michigan was Jabrill Peppers:

It's pretty clear that we need a new area to talk about defensive back/running back/wildcat/slot receiver/icon Jabrill Peppers because with everything he is doing on offense, defense and special teams, it's just easier to centrally locate it all. I wasn't charting it, but just off hand I can remember him lining up at running back, quarterback, slot receiver, cornerback, nickel back, and probably safety. He was even the boundary cornerback, which asks him to run defend more than field corner. I believe he played 92 snaps total. They really have no worries about putting him anywhere on this offense or defense, and they shouldn't.
A year ago I voted for the top 15 players in the B1G for a magazine before the season started and I put Peppers at No. 15 before he ever played a game. I don't know if he is an All-Big Ten player this season because he doesn't really have a home, but I doubt if you let the B1G coaches have a draft that he would last 15 spots.

What Does It All Mean?

It means that Michigan's offense is what it is at this point, but Jim Harbaugh is doing his absolute damnedest to make it more of what it isn't. He is trying to give it more explosion, but along the way he is also forced to entertain the neighborhood kids with sparklers because that's what he has the most of. This is an offense without a dynamic runner or thrower, and Peppers and Chesson aren't going to change it enough to make this a running game worth fearing. It does need to be respected because De'Veon Smith is a brute, Drake Johnson is an athlete, and the fullbacks are sneaky, but none of them should be feared by a defense.
So what happens if the Michigan defensive line isn't getting a push and they are facing an offense that has receivers outside and inside and they can also run the ball from every angle as well? That's a lot to ask of any defense, and in a few weeks the Buckeyes will be asking it of Michigan.

As always, there is a ton, ton more. Go to the link. Worth your time for another read.

My two cents: I'll be happy with 8 - 4 given the last two games. And if we manage to beat OSU, well, Harbaugh has some scary incredible juju that is beyond anything I've ever seen.

chunkums

November 2nd, 2015 at 11:23 PM ^

Yeah, this one makes me a bit more nervous than it did in weeks 3-4. Their defense is good enough to largely neutralize our mediocre offense. At that point, it's anyone's game. Hopefully Drake Johnson is close to 100%, because he seems to be the only back on the roster who can run against front sevens with a pulse. 

BlueinLansing

November 3rd, 2015 at 10:17 AM ^

I really don't understand why.

 

What game impressed you in the last five?  Beating Army by 6, beating Indiana ok maybe but that was Indiana backup QB's which turns IU into a tire fire on offense, we will not see that team.  Lost by 28 to Ohio, it was " a game " into the 2nd half but then it wasnt'.  Beat Maryland by 1, repeat that, Maryland by 1 and gave up 30 points to Maryland.  And finally they beat Illinois 39-0, the  Illinois team who has beaten MTSU, Kent and Western Illinois and a 1 point win over Nebraska in a wholly fuck did Nebraska screw that up game.   Since Illiniois has been beaten by Iowa, Wisconsin and now PSU.

 

 

alum96

November 3rd, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^

Same comments said about Minn a week ago, incl by me.

It's about matchups.

It's a road game with a team full of 4 stars with more inherent talent than MN has (MN has one 4 star on its roster I believe, Utah had like 3(.  See comment one in OP about winning road games - they are not easy.

Teams are seeing ways to attack UM D and teams who can attack our safeties and LBs in space are an issue - PSU can.  Hack is not horrid and certainly better than Leidner.    Barkley is a legit running back - Minn was able to run last week with a legit running back.  So they have ways to attack our D.

Defensively they match up perfectly with UM's strengths in that DL is a strenth and our OL is no great shakes.  We lack big play abililty.  They will be up for this game as a Michigan scalp is always a good one and they - like everyone - has had Harbaugh talk stuffed down their throats for 9 months.

These look like 2 somewhat equal teams - both with good to great defenses and both with struggling offenses.  PSU has the better QB, and a better rb IMO as well.  Neither OL is great shakes - they have given up only a handful of sacks the past 6 weeks.

Not sure why people assume 2 pretty equal teams playing in Happy Valley should be a pretty easy win for UM.  This feels like one thhat comes down to the last drive - not sure how anyone can be saying "why worry?" 

westwardwolverine

November 3rd, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^

Those last two weeks are going to be something in the Big Ten...Especially if MSU is 10-1. 

(Assuming we beat Rutgers/IU. Knocking on all kinds of wood)

StephenRKass

November 3rd, 2015 at 9:18 AM ^

Yeah, on reflection, I wouldn't be "happy" with 8 - 4. But I'm happy with Harbaugh, I'm happy with the what the team is doing. I'm happy with the direction Michigan is heading. I want more, but would 8 - 4 be a failure? It depends. If Michigan played like they did last year, yep. But if Michigan continues to fight, to play to the best of their ability, and they win a tight game to PSU and OSU, I won't wail and gnash my teeth. I won't get drunk. I won't rip on Harbaugh and the team.

When I look at our team, I see some holes. We all know about the QB situation. I don't know if it is an injury or what, but I no longer have confidence that Rudock is going to complete passes over the top. I like Darboh and Chesson, but they aren't the same kind of receiver as Burbridge. I don't know what to say about the RB's. Isaac isn't on the depth chart, Green is a guy, as Brian said, Smith is hurt, Higdon is a freshman. That leaves us with Drake Johnson. In our secondary, after Jourdan Lewis, they are good, but not great. Our LB corps have been exposed.

The thing is, all of them are doing close to the best they can, and getting better every week. That's good enough for me. I'm not gonna blame Rudock or Morgan or Smith or Chesson for not being fast enough or strong enough or having good enough hands. They are what they are, and Harbaugh has done an awesome job getting what he can out of them.

Goggles Paisano

November 3rd, 2015 at 6:12 AM ^

Agree - I look forward to reading this each week.  It is fair, entertaining and from a different perspective.  He makes a great point about all the fluky plays Minn hit on - we were there to defend them and didn't.  We bitch all week about the bad luck we have recently had but dang...just make those plays we are in position to make.  

StephenRKass

November 3rd, 2015 at 9:21 AM ^

I do love Michigan Monday and Gerdeman's unbiased enemy perspective. Minn did hit an awful lot of fluky plays, but that happens sometimes in football. And fluky plays cut both ways . . . think back to Michigan's Sugar Bowl victory a few years ago.

I especially like Gerdeman's analysis of how we might be attacked by opposing teams going forward. This helps me take off my homer glasses and see things a bit more clearly.

Mgodiscgolfer

November 3rd, 2015 at 6:13 AM ^

drummed up 2500 points in less than 2 years. You would know what the Ozone is if you bothered to read more than just the title of the thread before you comment. Try going to the link provided read the article THEN comment. You will look much smarter if you come in knowing what the Ozone is.

LSAClassOf2000

November 2nd, 2015 at 11:28 PM ^

Perhaps a few fits, but they are deficient enough on defense and in some regards middling enough on offense (as their stats now bear out on some specific measures) that we'll probably rule the day in that game, at least if you go with the numbers right now. Aside from OSU, a game in which we would be a slight underdog if you go with Sagarin at the moment, PSU is probably the toughest matchup left really. 

StephenRKass

November 3rd, 2015 at 9:27 AM ^

It seems to me that when a QB can fit passes in a tight window, and a team has at least 2 - 3 high quality receivers, Michigan struggles. We have Jourdan Lewis, and Peppers, but Stribling and the safeties and the LB's can be beat by slants, wheel routes, over the top with double moves. That's what I wonder about with Indiana.

And it is true that their defense is pretty sucky, but I have scaled back what I expect of our offense. Smith being hurt doesn't help. And the book on Michigan is they can't complete a pass more than 10 - 15 yards in the air. So every team can cheat with their safeties and LB's. Until Michigan burns a team repeatedly with explosive plays in the air for 20 plus yards, no team is going to respect Rudock and our receivers.

drjaws

November 3rd, 2015 at 12:03 AM ^

I said I'd be happy with 8-4 at the beginning of the year and I still feel like that. Given what I have seen this year in 9 months of Harbaugh, we have a very bright future



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

M-Dog

November 3rd, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^

What is most important to me is trajectory.  I'll be happy with 8-4 if we are moving in the right direction, look organized, and can go toe-to-toe with our rivals.

Then I will know that the rest is just recruiting over time, which we all know Harbaugh can do.

Truthfully, I would be happier with 8-4 where we play PSU and OSU competitively to the very end, than 9-3 where we beat PSU but look aimless against OSU and get blown out.

I am looking for a line of sight where we can beat our rivals and win B1G championships, not just beat up on teams we are supposed to beat.

 

 

StephenRKass

November 3rd, 2015 at 2:40 PM ^

Yep, you've nailed it. I want Michigan to play well, to play hard, and not to get their wins by flukes. It isn't enough to beat up on cupcakes. Can Michigan play the best teams toe to toe? Yes, I believe we are on the right trajectory, regardless of what happens against PSU and OSU this year.

HailChicago

November 3rd, 2015 at 12:12 AM ^

I was definitely one of the many that said 8-4 would be solid at the outset of this year. That said, I don't think you can say we can or should be "happy" with 8-4 anymore. Know what most people mean...semantically, I think it'd be fair to say that we wouldn't be terribly disappointed at 8-4 but can't say we'd be "happy". As padog noted, no way anyone on this board would be "happy" splitting the last two games and enduring a couple of losses.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

HailChicago

November 3rd, 2015 at 12:35 AM ^

No doubt, he's nowhere close to those 3 coaches. But, there are probably 100 coaches that are not on the level of those 3. To be classified as awful would have to put you in the bottom 30 or so coaches, Franklin is not in that territory. Wish I could troll him more but can't be that extreme.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

snarling wolverine

November 3rd, 2015 at 9:12 AM ^

He managed to hold things together there when the sanctions hit and players were free to transfer without restriction. I would not have predicted them to post winning seasons those two years. He also is pretty good offensive mind. Defensively he may not be as strong.

EGD

November 3rd, 2015 at 10:16 AM ^

I thought BOB was an outstanding coach at Penn State. I don't watch much NFL football so I have no idea how he's doing now. But yeah, his 8-4 and 7-5 records at Penn State were impressive because a lesser coach might have gone 4-8 or worse with the teams he had. Beyond just the records I thought he got the most out of the talent he did have available, and--like M's current team under Harbaugh--his teams seemed to be greater than the sums of their parts.

Also, since I don't really follow pro football, my frame of reference for deciding that BOB was an outstanding coach is "compared to other college coaches." If he's not doing well in the League, maybe he's just average (or worse) compared to other pro coaches. That doesn't mean he wasn't a great college coach. Lots of great college coaches couldn't cut it in the NFL (Saban and Spurrier being two recent examples). Of course, there could also be other explanations (current Houston team not great talent-wise, tough schedule, injuries, etc.) but I among familiar enough with the NFL to evaluate any of that.