Michigan Monday up at the Ozone

Submitted by StephenRKass on

Michigan Monday is up at the Ozone.

LINK:  Michigan Monday:  Goodwill Punting

I really wondered how much Gerdeman would gloat or diss Michigan. Actually, he seems to feel our pain:

A thousand different scenarios, and maybe three where Michigan doesn't leave the Big House with a win. That's why, for me, this is clearly the gutwrenchingest college football loss that I have ever seen. The good news for Michigan fans is that you'll never have to worry about something like this happening again because the mathematical probabilities just don't stretch that far.

On offense, he highlights several things:

  • Failure to gain more than 100 yds rushing (like Utah).
  • Only 3 completed passes actually travelled more than 20 yds in the air.
  • Rudock failed to connect with Chesson on a pass that would have sealed the game.
  • Rudock failed to take advantage of freshmen safeties, an opportunity that was there all game long.

On defense,

Michigan played well again. Burbridge and Lewis was a fascinated duel to watch between two  budding stars.

On special teams,

Very good play, but you can't discount the mistakes made on the final play. Not all of which (but much of which) falls on Blake O'Neill.

What does it all mean?

It means that Jake Rudock did enough to win the game, but he didn't actually do anything to win the game. The fact that Michigan was in a position to win this game despite being out-gained 386 to 230 and out-first downed 20 to 10 is an amazing feat. Every step of the way Jim Harbaugh had to figure out a way to overcome his lack of a running game while also hiding his lack of a passing game. This is some MacGyver-level stuff on Harbaugh's part. You wonder what he could have done had he found a paper clip or a rubber band or some hydrochloric acid in his pocket.

The future is ok this year, and great for the future.

Despite how far away this team is in terms of championship talent, they have shown the ability to put enough of their abilities together to win any game on their schedule. Unfortunately, they are just not good enough on offense to hide their weaknesses, and if the opponent sticks around long enough, those weaknesses will be exploited, as we have seen in both of Michigan's losses this season.

As always, Gerdeman's analysis is generally fair and insightful. Early in the season, Harbaugh said he didn't know what kind of team he had. Now we know. If Harbaugh can get this much out of the current team, I can only imagine what he will do when he has a team made up of guys he actually recruited.

MGoBoard
Football
Michigan Monday

Blue Since B.C.

October 20th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^

I see those open receiver over-throws in my nightmares.  It's tough.  5 of them on the season, and if we connect on 1 or 2, we're definitely undefeated.

Growing up, watching the Michigan teams of the 90s and early 00s, I felt like we couldn't MISS a deep ball.  Every time it went up, you knew some hoss was going to come down with it or it was going to catch a receiver in-stride.

Now it's just...different.  We'll connect on a huge one against OSU and it'll be all gravy hopefully.

Joined: 09/17/2013

MGoPoints: 2861

StephenRKass

October 20th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^

Well, there was more than one missed pass to Chesson. Brian will have it in the UFR tomorrow or Thursday.

Part of the blame is clearly on Chesson. He doesn't have the most natural feel for the ball, nor the best hands. That's why Harbaugh is trying to get the ball in his hands with sweeps, handoffs, pitches, kickoff returns, etc. He is no Burbridge, who has sticky hands for everything around him.

But part of the blame is on Rudock. Do you remember the missed passes against Utah? I chalked that up to being his first game, and not having timing down. Brian cocked his eyebrows at Rudock a couple games ago (Maryland, IIRC). I thought patience was still in order. Now, I feel Iowa's pain. I understand why they let him go. I mean, he can be very good, but I put a lot of this loss on Rudock. If he could have exploited the MSU safeties downfield not only on that lst series, but throughout the game, Michigan would have won walking away. We could easily have had another touchdown or so. And it would have opened up the run game considerably.

Instead, we see who Rudock is. He is fine. He is by far, the best option we have at QB, according to Harbaugh. But he has significant limitations, and they aren't going to change. I now am definitely recalibrating my expectations to 9 - 3. Unless special teams and something else happens, I don't see how we can beat Ohio State.

Joined: 07/15/2008

MGoPoints: 23105

gwkrlghl

October 20th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^

The reason we were in the game despite being outgained on offense is because we decisively won the special teams battle - even with the last play gaffe. We had several significant returns and several field-position-flipping punts. Those count too ya know

Joined: 04/13/2012

MGoPoints: 72

Former_DC_Buck

October 20th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^

But he did say nice things about special teams. 

The Michigan Special Teams

Aside from Lincoln getting shot in the final act, the Michigan special teams actually put on a pretty decent play.

Blake O'Neill opened things up with an amazing 80-yard punt that completely flipped the field and took away any of the momentum that the Spartan offense thought they were going to get.

Jabrill Peppers had a punt return of 34 yards and a kickoff return of 49 yards, but he did have a muffed punt late in the game that the Wolverines were very fortunate to have recovered.

Joined: 12/01/2013

MGoPoints: 1591

elhead

October 21st, 2015 at 1:44 PM ^

is that there were 10 guys on that line rushing 7 (or 8 if you want to count the LS as a blocker.) That was the way MSU designed the play and they were going for broke, what with 10 seconds left. Under normal circumstances they would have a guy back and another on the open gunner, making the blocking scheme more likely to be successful.

If I were on the coaching staff, as part of this I would be asking why the snap was poor to begin with, and whether the snapper was affected at all by the hoard lining up on the other side - but that's speculative, right? But we've heard plenty about O'Neill, and little about the snap itself.

We can assume that these points have been discussed by the coaching staff, and that they are learning plenty from them.

Joined: 11/07/2009

MGoPoints: 3377

Monkey House

October 20th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^

if anyone wants to point to one play that would have changed the game its not the miss Chesson pass, its the 75 yard busted coverage. they play doesn't happen there is zero time left even on msu final drive.

Joined: 09/05/2014

MGoPoints: 43844

StephenRKass

October 20th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^

I completely agree with you. I'm looking forward to the UFR and more analysis of that play. It really changed the game. That's at least 3 things:  the missed pass., the busted coverage, the muffed punt. Different outcome on any one of those and we win the game. Well, woulda, coulda, shoulda, will do nothing for Michigan now. Need to eliminate more mistakes going forward.

Joined: 07/15/2008

MGoPoints: 23105

unWavering

October 20th, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^

There were so many missed opportunities and things that just didn't go our eay. The Butterfly first down that was called incomplete, the targeting call, the Chesson pass, the blown coverage on the 70 yd fullback pass. Despite all of that, we played well enough to win, and gave it away on the last play. So frustrating. I'm gonna want this one back for years to come

Joined: 01/13/2011

MGoPoints: 22437

StephenRKass

October 20th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^

However . . . I think there was at least one call that went Michigan's way, and possibly shouldn't have. We were given a touchdown on a run where I didn't see the ball cross the plane, and which should have been whistled dead (forward progress) earlier. The reality is that drive stunk. Our OL and RB couldn't force the ball into the endzone. Not a good sign. My point is that while we missed opportunities, we actually were given some things that maybe we shouldn't have gotten. Michigan is better, but their offense still stinks, and needs lots of improvement. QB, WR, OL, RB, all need to be better. I'll give a pass to FB and TE, but the rest of the offense needs better play.

Joined: 07/15/2008

MGoPoints: 23105

WestSider

October 20th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^

it was a game with so many variables at work, some conflicting with others.Every point has a counterpoint. A facinating game to take on numerous perspectives. Terrible outcome, proud of the effort.

Joined: 02/04/2011

MGoPoints: 5979

alum96

October 20th, 2015 at 1:00 PM ^

Yep some stats I posted in diary on the offense below.  (Blake saved our bacon all day, it was the offense that should have put the game away much earlier to make the last MSU drive mean nothing and the last play mean nothing)  Special teams gave offense such great position and we got nothing or FGs mostly out of it.

MSU took away our running game and our TEs (3 catches for paltry yard, Butt neutralized)- that is the bread and butter of a UM offense in 2015.  Hard to win when a team takes away the 2 components of your offense you live on - but we still could (should) have. 

I do believe in 5 years we look back at this offense and laugh at the lack of playmakers everywhere and will be amazed Jim got us to 8-9-10 wins.

-----------------

Michigan had 230 yards of offense.  At home.  Purdue - a complete garbage program - had 301 yards vs MSU.  In East Lansing. 

Rutgers had 349 yds vs MSU. Taking out Leonte Carroo and Rutgers still had 215 yards vs MSU.  Or only 15 less than UM at full strength.

Not good.  Not good at all.

Was 230 yards technically enough to win?  Yes.  But it would have papered over a mediocre performance.  And a more competent offensive performance would have led to that last drive for MSU meaning nothing as well as the last play.  I blame the offense not Blake O'Neil for the eventual outcome.

We had 12 drives not incl the last one and 6 were 3 and outs (50%).  Two others were 4 or 5 plays that led to field goals only due to amazing field position (started @ Spartan 48 and Spartan 28 yard line respectively).  The 4 play drive was all of 8 yards.  So 8 of our 12 drives (75%) did nearly nothing in TOP, yards, production but we generated 6 pts out of it thanks to Peppers giving great field position.  If they began at the normal 35 yard line of UM they would have generated 0 points as well.

Did I mention this was against a defense with TWO FRESHMAN SAFETIES AND A LOL CORNER AND MISSING ITS BEST LB?  I was told MSU's D took a big step back this year on the blogosphere.  Hmph.

There were 2 material drives on offense, one a 8 play 72 yarder that we badly needed immediately after MSU's 16 play drive.   That was great.  Then a 10 play, 62 yarder that led to a field goal.   Sufficient.  But that was it in terms of moving the ball > 40 yds on a "deficient MSU defense".  The other TD drive was again on a short drive that started on MSU's 38 yard line.

The offense was given amazing field position all game and mostly derped it away.  2 serious drives (>40 yds) in 60 minutes of football.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82664

Michigan4Life

October 20th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^

are godawful. I've seen so many instance where Michigan WRs are running free because MSU secondary aren't capable of covering them.  With a better QB, they'd get torched for about 500 yards with ease.  Luckily, B1G QBs are all awful aside from Cook and maybe OSU QB (JT if he plays). MSU secondary won't get tested very often.

Joined: 07/29/2010

MGoPoints: 25522

charblue.

October 20th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^

Gerdemen recognizes the danger that lurks ahead for any team that fails to recognize that Michigan is capable of beating any team on the schedule, something many may have felt but were always afraid to acknowledge publicly.

It has now lost games to two undefeated teams it might have won with a tried and true Harbaugh quarterback instead of a developed-on-the-run version, although the coach himself will never, ever suggest this.

That Michigan might be undefeated itself and getting first place poll votes is possible had a few plays more been made. Now, that might have been the prospect, but is just a pipedream. What ifs are always bye week and downtime discussions for the downtrodden about what might have been. That's always the difference between executing certain plays and failing to.

Joined: 05/25/2010

MGoPoints: 11427

Hannibal.

October 20th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^

Here's a question -- does O'Neil get the punt blocked if he gets it off?  If so, is the right thing to do there to audible into a throw to the uncovered gunner?  Can O'Neil even throw it?  Did Harbaugh lock down all of the fakes as a result of the BYU game? 

Joined: 09/09/2008

MGoPoints: 9051

jmblue

October 20th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^

I don't think it would have been blocked otherwise but we can't know for sure.An audible to a pass would have been interesting, but I don't know if you want to put that on your punter, who's never passed before.  If you're going to audible, I think you just go to max-protect.

 

Joined: 11/07/2008

MGoPoints: 102954

mtzlblk

October 20th, 2015 at 3:06 PM ^

I hadn't really thought about it, but we are essentially very nearly two plays away from being undefeated with some quality wins.

I know you can't play the "take away" game with any amount of legitimacy, but I'm going to anyway. 

Take away, of course, the last play of the MSU game, we win against the 7th ranked, undefeated Juggalos (sorry, that is what I'm calling them, this week at least)

Take away the pick- six at Utah and we at least enter overtime, perhaps win that game.

That is amazingly close to results that would have us in serious contention for the BCS playoffs at this point in the season, with OSU to go. If that game goes our way, a potential match-up with Iowa in the Big10 championship game. 

If you gave me this scenario last year before Harbaugh was hired, I would have paid for it...likely after he was hired also.

Edited, posting from android app not helpful for proofreading

Joined: 01/20/2009

MGoPoints: 5019

LSAClassOf2000

October 20th, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^

This is some MacGyver-level stuff on Harbaugh's part. You wonder what he could have done had he found a paper clip or a rubber band or some hydrochloric acid in his pocket.

I laughed at this sentence, but it highlights something that we've seen all year - he is maximizing the effectiveness of the talent that he has, and if a group which he has almost entirely inherited can be coached up to a level where they can be winning in a game where they are being outgained, beat up an opponent on spcial teams, be as physical as that opponent and all before Harbaugh has really had a chance to fully install his system and his personnel, that's pretty damn amazing on any level really. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130748