Michigan has already won the first 12 team playoff.

Submitted by OldDad67 on January 12th, 2024 at 5:41 PM

I just watched today's "Around the Horn" (I know, I know ESPN) and one of the reporters said that "winning the championship will be a lot harder with a 12 team playoff because you will need to win 3 playoff games and possibly 4.

I would argue that Michigan did exactly that this year. If you take the week 15 A.P. poll standings, which was the final poll prior to the announcement of the playoff teams, Michigan defeated the #2 (Washington), #5 (Alabama), #7 (the Ohio State), and #10 (Penn State).teams. 

Am I wrong?

jmblue

January 12th, 2024 at 5:49 PM ^

Their thinking is backwards.  Up to now you needed a 12-0/11-1 season to make the CFP field, and even then it wasn’t always guaranteed.  Now we’ll see teams with two or possibly even three losses getting in.  You’ll just need to get hot at the end of the season to win it all.

ChiBlueBoy

January 12th, 2024 at 6:38 PM ^

It is exactly as hard as it always has been during the FBS era--you have to be #1 out of 133 teams. The process for determining that one has and will change, and the nature of the challenges change from year to year. For example, this year it required being undefeated, which is not always true. But the overall level of difficulty remains.

What is true, however, is that this is harder on the individuals players, as they will have to play more games to be named #1.

WolverineGoneTerp

January 12th, 2024 at 5:55 PM ^

Depends on how you look at it.

Four-team playoff:  Hard to get in, but once you're in you only have to win two games.

Twelve-teams:  Easier to make the field, but then more difficult

So if you define "winning a championship" as what happens once the CFP starts the ESP-genius is correct.  But if you think the process starts at the beginning of the season, I think the four-team version is harder.  Just ask FSU how easy the four-team playoff is...

NittanyFan

January 12th, 2024 at 5:58 PM ^

That's not how it works ........ and besides, I'd guess this has happened a fair amount of times in the past too (especially in the 4-team CFP era, ANY Champ gets 2 Top 5 wins right there).

2019 LSU, for instance - beat SIX teams that were ranked in the Top 10 of the final regular season poll.  Clemson (#3 at the end of the regular season), Oklahoma (#4), Georgia (#5), Florida (#6), Alabama (#9) and Auburn (#10).

rice4114

January 12th, 2024 at 5:59 PM ^

We were a one seed which means we get a bye. Next year will be easier. 

;-) 

But also we get to play half of the top ten next year going into the payoff and then will have to beat the other half to win it all. Buckle up all you bastards that whined about our schedule being too easy.

#6 Texas, #8 Washington, #10 Oregon, ranked Usc, #2 OSU, #4 Penn St in the championship 

Then in the playoff

#7 Bama, # 5 LSU , #2 Georgia

2 (2x), 4,5,6,7,8 10

Sure why not. If we end next regular season 9-3 are season ticket holders going to fold their arms and say "Now thats more like it!" 

wheatonwolverine

January 12th, 2024 at 6:17 PM ^

I've heard the same dumb point about it being supposedly harder with 12 teams instead of 4 in other contexts. At the end of the season, someone has to win the whole thing. If every team were of equal skill, the odds would be exactly the same (1 out of 133) no matter the format. Even if we went to the multiple months of NHL playoffs. 

Perkis-Size Me

January 12th, 2024 at 6:49 PM ^

We’re having too good a time today that we’re not even thinking about tomorrow. 

Honestly, folks, let’s just enjoy this glory while we have it. Before too long, the 2024 season will be here and the chase will start all over. Until then, forget next year and forget the 12 team playoff. 

Michigan won THIS ONE. Enjoy it. 

M-Dog

January 12th, 2024 at 6:57 PM ^

Mark my words, there will be some interesting upsets with the 12 team playoff.  The bye will not always be an advantage.

Look at how sloppy Michigan and Alabama played.  It was a lot of time off before they played. 

Some of those bye teams with their long layoffs are going to get picked off by the "lesser" teams that just played and won a game.

Perkis-Size Me

January 12th, 2024 at 9:34 PM ^

This.

The Blue Jackets sweeping the Lightning a few years back comes to mind.

Lightning absolutely dominate the regular season, wrap up a playoff spot early on, win the Presidents trophy, and are on cruise control the last few weeks of the season.

Blue Jackets, meanwhile, are fighting tooth and nail to get into the playoffs on a nightly basis. Every game for the last several weeks of the regular season is a playoff game for them. They squeak in, but they’ve been in playoff mode, so they’ve been in full on “kill or be killed” mode for weeks.

Lightning come in fresh, but not mentally prepared. They get punched in the mouth the first game or two by a hungry, desperate, and mentally prepared opponent who has been playing playoff style of hockey for weeks, and the Lightning have absolutely no idea how to respond. They get swept in one of the biggest playoff series upsets ever.

 

oHOWiHATEohioSTATE

January 12th, 2024 at 8:00 PM ^

Impossible to tell if 12 teams makes it harder or easier.  Yes playing 3/4 games makes it potentially more difficult because you have to play 1 or 2 extra games. It could also make it potentially easier if a favorite on your path gets upset by a lower team.

Jinxed

January 12th, 2024 at 8:06 PM ^

I think it will be harder to dominate like Alabama did for a while.. but it'll be easier for second tier teams because more games means more chances for upsets. If you're a juggernaut in a single elimination situation you want as few games as possible between you and the championship. 

ma5678tt

January 12th, 2024 at 9:12 PM ^

No reseeding will also lead to some upsets. I still haven't formed an opinion on the reseeding that goes on in the NFL during the playoffs. Maybe because I don't care about the NFL like I do CFB.