Michigan Football has 4th Best Odds to Win National Championship per FanDuel
https://www.on3.com/news/teams-with-best-odds-to-win-college-football-playoff-national-championship-revealed/
Top National Championship Odds...
+220 – Georgia
+500 – Alabama
+700 – Ohio State
+1000 – Michigan
+1600 – USC
Not sure how many times we'll have to beat Ohio State to move ahead of them. Keep making us the underdog. It's been working well so far!!
Penn State also checks in at +2000
Seriously this pinhead coach???
I think they are banking on Chad Powers walking on.
“Not just good-looking, I can throw it, baby.”
Too low. Sign me up.
Haha. thee Ohio is going to lose their 5th game on 11/25/2023
Beating osu twice in a row is priceless. The off-seasons are so much fun walking around in new Big Ten champion shirts.
I live in Atlanta and was in a Kroger the other day and happened to have a Block M golf shirt.
There was a couple near the meat freezer...BOTH with OSU t-shirts.
I was compelled to walk over to that freezer section even though there was no meat on the list.
They were good natured about it and we chatted for a bit but as I told them - it's a lot easier to have these encounters over the past 2 years since order has been restored to the universe.
This either downplays the importance of a returning QB, or really shows the confidence Vegas has in the new starters at OSU, Georgia, and Bama.
OSU's offense will be explosive again even with their new QB. As usual, their season will ride on their sorry ass defense.
....and of course Michigan can't pass the ball.
- Jim Know-less
It's a bit fanciful to think that OSU will replace a guy who may be the first QB in the draft (2nd at worst) and two-time Heisman finalist, and be just as explosive. Their QB room may not produce the winning tickets it did with Stroud and Fields. You can't always hit, as we've learned with UM recruiting. Even if they fully replicated Stroud's incredible accuracy, they're averaging 25 ppg against us under those conditions, because they can't run the ball. I would not be shocked if they lost 3 games. They have to visit ND, Purdue, Wisconsin, UM, and receive PSU, Minn, Maryland. MSU is going to be a joke. But PSU, ND, Maryland played them tough last year, and Fickle will want this badly. Lastly, we know they don't have the hearts of champions when things get tough. Even their reliable kicker made perhaps the worst shank in the history of crunch-time kicks.
They have 2 5 star recruits competing for the starting QB spot. Pretty sure they will hit on one of the two.
Kind of like how Ryan Mallet, Shane Morris and Shea Patterson turned out? You're right, five-star QB's are total guarantees.
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/grading-5-star-qbs-past-decade/
OSU and especially Ryan Day arent going to miss on multiple 5 stars. Maybe one may not be as projected but they havent missed on a QB in decades. To think now is the time they will fail at the QB position is wishful thinking at best.
Maybe they will, maybe they won't, but they missed on Joe Burrows, and missed on many others. So far, Day has one unicorn transfer in Fields, whom he neither recruited or significantly developed. And Stroud whom he developed. They recruit at least one QB per year, so there have been many misses. I'm not debating that one of the two they have will likely be good (although if you look at the list I posted above, being a 5-star isn't a recipe for being an incredible college QB), I'm debating whether that will really happen in year 1. Day doesn't have enough of a statistical sample to know if this is a transcendent skill of his.
OSU didn't miss on Burrow. He was in a tight battle with Haskins when he unfortunately broke his hand which set him back. Haskins went on to set several B1G records that year. Burrow still loves OSU and can be seen wearing OSU clothing-gear during the season.
OSU missed on Burrow in the sense that he accomplished nothing there. I'm not sure how there could be more of a miss.
When you look at the level that those 3 teams have recruited at, it’s hard not to be confident that they’ll all be reloading.
They're just setting a line, it will adjust according to the money. They are just weeding out the suckers.
We're the new Oklahoma.
We are early Saban/Alabama if we can recruit like Saban did we can make that jump. The one difference being Meyer quit at Florida and he had no Bama/Georgia to overcome.
We are at the point where we are as good as we can possibly be without collecting top 3 recruiting classes.
Good thing the '24 class is #2!
At this point, with so many high recruits yet to commit, the rankings don't mean as much as the average rating per recruit. Many of the recruiting powers are in on many HS stars that are still deciding where to commit.
Having the best returning offense in the country used to mean something. Now it’s all about reputation.
Michigan and USC are really the only smart bets here on the list and the only two teams returning Heisman worthy QB's.
These odds will drop considerably so get in while the gettin's good!
Did they change the rules to count handoffs as pass attempts?
I have no idea WTH your talking about here, but JJ has the best odds of any Michigan Heisman odds on Draft Kings (+2500) that includes Corum (+3000). Not saying it's going to happen that way but a total reason to take the aggregate wager on Michigan now.
Odds are about popularity as it pertains to betting, i.e. are a psychological configuration. No matter how great JJ becomes, he will never win the Heisman with Corum and Edwards in the backfield. I bet you're not putting any money on him.
Not enough pass attempts for JJ to win the Heisman.
The big question for USC is "can they tackle a soul?"
It is absolutely amazing how abhorrent defense just seems to follow some coaches around, no matter whom they hire as a coordinator. Lincoln Riley is this generation's RichRod. He just made a good call and took his big promotion in a conference without defense. If he went to the SEC he would essentially be one of these offensive powers that go 11-1 and then 8-4, over and over. All on how the ball bounces.
Absolutely agree. Those are the 2, at the price, to take.
Nope, USC is a carbon copy of OSU - all offense and a shit defense. The same can be said for Day and Lincoln Riley.
That feels… nice. Good feelings are ok now you guys?
High expectations aren't a good thing for us. Never has been. Hopefully the team just focuses on winning. JJ and others were too cocky in the press conferences for the TCU game and we all saw what happened.
Agree. Overconfidence may be Michigan's biggest challenge this year. Hopefully the team leaders and coaches will keep it in check.
After the TCU game, overconfidence should not be an issue.
It feels like we should be ahead of OSU but it just proves that Harbaugh, even though finally getting over the hurdle of beating OSU, twice, people still have their doubts of him in big games. I think beating TCU would of changed these odds significantly.
Georgia will not three peat that is a complete waste of money if you are tripling down on that. I have a feeling Saban is coming back with a vengeance this year.
Dang, that +1000 is solid. Probably worth at least a $50 bet. And this is coming from a guy who gets a little nervous placing just a $10 bet.
Here is why a Michigan futures bet isnt a smart financial move. These are all estimates of course but it starts to make sense as you stack up the hurdles.
Going 11-0 50% chance
Beating OSU 50% chance
Winning the big ten championship 75% chance
Semi final 50% chance
Final 50% chance (and this is being as generous as you can possibly be)
That is a lot of coinflips.
Everybody is talking about it coming down to the UM-OSU winner but this could be the year that PSU throws a monkey wrench into everything. And it pains me to say that. They have a ton of talent.....if Franklin doesn't screw everything up.
Franklin = bad OL
Franklin + new QB - good OL = UM/OSU for it all.
The two question marks - unknowns for the 2023 B1G East champ is the PSU OL and the OSU defense. It's been that way for a few seasons now. If either gets fixed this year, it could be a huge challenge for UM. The headscratcher around the PSU program - as you mentioned - is why PSU can never field a decent OL. Same can be said for the OSU defense especially with all of the "star" power they always get in recruiting on the defensive side
I don't think you've quite mastered statistics. Some of these contingencies are interrelated (like beating OSU and winning the B1G, hard to do one without the other), and some mutually exclusive, like going 11-0, which isn't required for any of the others. So, the probability isn't just a factorial of coin flips. Michigan could theoretically win a title after failing 1-2 of your pre-CFP criteria above (probably only one).
I calculate your odds of all of these occurring simultaneously at about 1 in 21. But, I think that's too favorable. I would put the odds of us going 15-0 and winning the title, closer to 200-1. That's a pretty tall order, and requires some significant level of luck.
You missed that I put them in order. Each one when you get to the next step was my odds of overcoming the next step. Its pretty simple if you dont try to over think it, Its just estimates.
Step 1: Going 11-0 50% chance -Pass? Go to step 2!
Step 2: Beating OSU 50% chance -Pass? Go to step 3!
Step 3: Winning the big ten championship 75% chance -Pass? Go to step 4!
Step 4: Semi final 50% chance -Im guessing you get the point by now.
Final 50% chance (and this is being as generous as you can possibly be)
Maybe we have a shot if we dont hit on 1,2, or 3 but we dont have OSU luck so, pardon the pun, I wouldnt bet on it.
The top 3 all have new QBs. I say we are the favorite.
It is amazing that three new QB's, with three departing QB's all of Heisman caliber, don't cause any hesitation in the betting line. Football is incredibly unique in the singular importance of the QB position. There isn't really another sport like it, with so much failure/success tied to one spot. If any of those teams get sub-par QBing, they could easily drop 2-3 games.
“Not sure how many times we'll have to beat Ohio State to move ahead of them.”
How about not shitting the bed against TCU while OSU is a missed FG away from beating the eventual national champion?
Christ, this stuff isn’t rocket science.
Fine, but OSU "shit the bed" in game 12. If every future prediction hinges on the last game only, then it makes sense. Is that what you mean by "rocket science"? Because it seems more like unreason than reason to rest everything on challenging Georgia. OSU was in dogfights with NW, MD, PSU, ND, last year. They were embarrassed in the game they'd monolithically aimed at for 363 days. They backed into the playoff and gave Georgia a great game. They are losing 3-4 day-one players including the most important position on the field. They have a brand new OC, who's never done it before. Is that a recipe for #3, when the they play @ #4, and the road to the B1G title clearly goes through Ann Arbor now?