Michigan Draft Decisions......hold me tightly.
http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2014/03/mitch_mcgary_nik_stauskas_glen.html
Here are some qoutes just updated after the Kentucky Game. Interesting qoutes from all 3!
We have 3 B1G decisions on our hands at the moment about a week sooner then we all would have liked. Stauskas, McGary and Robinson all have large and looming decisions to make. Regardless of what they decide the past two years have been an absolute treat and they have represented the University well both on and off the court.
Stauskas- He is ranging anywhere from 11-18 in the 1st round.
Nik has a polished overall offensive game and a deceptive ability to get to his spots on the floor. He is an exceptional shooter and does not shy away from the big moment. He is not an uber-elite athlete or defender. If he stays he might vault into the top 10 and round out his athleticism and defense with another year with Sanderson. I'm not sure that he has much left to prove on this level and it would be a fairly self-less decision to come back. He has the talent to play in the league now and the tools to be a solid starter in the future. Verdict: Likely Gone.
McGary- Mitch is a 6ft10 263lb beast with quickness and great hands. He possesses the ability to score from out to 17 feet and plays with a V12 motor. The problem is that his back injury cost him a chance to showcase more of what we saw last season and is the type of injury that a cutthroat NBA will not excuse. Mitch has an opportunity to really inflate his draft stock by returning and performing next season. He could go 2nd round this season or maybe even late 1st if he had an amazing recovery off his injury and showed scouts he was back to normal. Those are a couple of "ifs' that I can't see any logical comfort in. McGary would be the Premiere Big in the B1G next season and would likely garnish gobs of attention. He would need to perform under this microscope but I have no doubt that he would.
Mitch is a transcending player that is loved by the University of Michigan and all of it's fans. We lost today because he could not go...lets just be real. He watched us get "beat up" down low and could do nothing to help. I just don't see it in the stars that his last experience at Michigan is helplessly watching a Final Four berth be just missed knowing he could have made all the difference. It feels proper for Stauskas to make the jump but I can't say the same for McGary. #Unfinishedbusiness. That is the fan in me and all of us talking lol. I think that next season Beilein could allow Mitch to play the 4 and grow with the position. I think both the University and Mitch win. There are too many ?s about him jumping into the cutthroat business of the NBA to logically make that choice. We don't know what he is being told but everything I've seen has him as a composite pick in the mid second round. Thats a monster risk. The undertone of him returning last year for "one more" year is undercut by his injury. Verdict: Returning.
GRIII- Oh man. Has there ever been a more puzzling "Star" then GRIII @ Michigan? He has great basketball skills and flashes of brilliance. Athletically he is the real deal. His jumper is smooth and he has range. Defensively he is solid and electrifying as a Finisher. The questions have seemingly always been his drive and motivation which seems to fluctuate. Sometimes GRIII doesn't seem interested to be honest. He doesn't show consistent ability to get HIS OWN SHOT which leaves a lot of his production in the hustle, transition and wide open jumper categories. His basketball skill would suggest that he could pretty much do what he wants on the court and he does AT TIMES. I find it truly fascinating. Has there ever been a kid that made you jump out of your seat and holler out of awe inspired joy like Glenn? On the flip side there have been many bad on court basketball decisions and sort of lack luster halves turned in by Glenn. I think Glenn deserves a PASS on all of this because he was truly playing out of positon all year and this genuinely displeased him. Today for example, we asked him to give up 3 inches and 60 pounds to Julius Randle on the block. Glenn is a 3 forced to play the 4 due to McGary's injury and Donnal's redshirt along with Smotrycz's transfer. This hasn't been fair to Glenn particularly when he returned under the assumption that he was going to be able to blossom as a 3 under Beilein. Life isn't fair and Glenn ended up contributing to a B1G Championship team in admireable fashion despite these circumstances.
I feel like Glenn will be doing himself a disservice by foregoing his junior year because he has only scratched the surface and is nearly a Lottery Lock next year as a 3 man under Beilein. In that last sentence lies the key. Can Beilein honestly promise him the 3 next year? It depends on if Mitch stays and forcing Zak Irvin and Kam Chatman to come off of the bench....which is pretty wild. GRIII with one more year is a danger to the B1G and will likely render him a top 5-10 pick with year one NBA potential. He is simply not there right now despite showing flashes of the ability. Glenn and Mitch are very close and one's decision will likely sway the other's. Glenn is a Composite pick in the 40's currently. There is room to move up but why forego a strong potential lottery spot next year for 2nd round money? I have genuine concerns that GRIII will be lost in the shuffle of NBA "athletes" if he jumps this season. I would love to be proven wrong ala THJ but I don't think Glenn has Timmy's fire yet.
Verdict: Reluctantly Stays
2015 Roster Outlook! Cheer up and Damn all things Royal Blue.
Ideally Reasonable Roster
Walton (so) - Spike (jr)
Levert (jr)- Irvin (so)
GRIII (jr)- Chatman(fr)/ Wilson (fr)
McGary (jr)- Donnal (fr)/ Beifeldt (jr)
Horford (Sr)- Doyle (fr)
or....with 3 departing sophomores...the following... ..
. Walton (so)- Spike (jr)
Levert (jr)- Transfer????
Irvin (so)- Chatman (fr) / Wilson (fr)
Donnal (fr)- Beifeldt (jr)
Horford (sr)- Doyle (fr)
P.S. I'm still confident that Beilein would make this a 20 win Sweet 16 team.
This team will need a transfer though. Massive hole at the 2 guard spot.
Missing on Blackmon and Booker becomes increasingly painful in this scenario.
If we are going to continue this trend of 2 and Throughs....we will not be able to miss on the recruiting trail at select postions without a step back in perfomance....just the nature of the beast. Obviously the Austin Hatch situation was unforeseen and altered things. Brunson and Coleman are becoming must haves for the 2015 class.
Final Thoughts: I think the return of McGary and Robinson would vault Michigan into Top 5 status next season and make us the favorite to win a lot more than just the B1G. The team atmosphere that Beilein has created is truly infectious and evidenced by the prevailing interest maintained by guys like Trey Burke and THJ even as they embark on their NBA careers I don't think any of these decisions is a no-brainer like a Parker of Wiggins but Stauskas is solidly in the first round before the Draft Combine. Nik is not a top 5 lock due to the Draft Combine generally favoring upside and athleticism which favors some of the other prospects at the wing position. I do think that given the right system, Nik could be a really good Pro relatively soon. He probably will and should go. GRIII and Mitch seem like a package deal to me and this could go 1 of 2 ways. I don't see one staying without the other. My brain says both will stay because I think they need the development and in Mitch's case the recovery time. My heart has this hopeless feeling that they might both set sail for the NBA......that may just be the morbid snake-biten fan in me. Either way all 3 of these kids put a smile on my face for 2 years and couldn't be happier to have cheered my heart of for them!
March 31st, 2014 at 10:57 AM ^
I equate him to Tyrus Thomas of LSU from a few years back who played a few years in the league. Freak athlete. Grabs boards. Good defender. Very limited offensively.
Pretty sure Harris is gone this year...the others just took longer. Part of it is our guys playing more earlier because the roster hadn't matured.
They spend 2 years breaking down their players (aside from Harris) and then rebuilding them. It's the Marine corps over there.
Harris is the one guy I have never seen Izzo yell at. I am sure he does in practice but he is treated like a normal player whereas everyone else Izzo just seems like to crush them early to get them into line and then rebuild them up. But that takes time. Some kids never recover from the early process. Contrast that to how you could see Ollie was yesterday in his comments, how Miles coaches, how Beilein coaches - it's the Jud Heathcote method which has worked for him but aside from Jason Richardson and Zach Randolph and now Gary Harris does not lead to much early entree action.
Frankly they have had lack of player development. Harris is a worse shooter than he was last year despite having Payne take attentiona way from him. He just takes more shots this year than last. Payne is a 5 star, Dawson is a 5 star (who had an ACL) and Appling is a 4 star. Almost all of Payne's peers as 5 star big men were in the NBA 2 years ago. Payne put up numbers similar to McGary's freshman year... as a sophomore. He stayed for another year. And then another. Dawson has developed no outside jumper in 3 years on campus - he cannot shoot outside 5 feet despite being a monster athlete. Appling was a converted 2.
Our player development is just ridiculous and almost a "bad" thing at how good it is since we don't reload like Kentucky in recruiting every year. I am telling you if Denzel Valentine was a Wolverine with all his raw skills and size he'd be contemplating going to the NBA today. Instead he will be yet another 4 year player for Izzo.
Stauskas and GRIII are gone.
McGary stays. I think GRIII at least thinks he showed enough late in the year and I think McGary made some really close friends on the bench which will make him more comfortable seperating from GRIII.
Your starting lineup next year is...
McGary
Chatman
Irvin
LeVert
Walton
Albrecht will be the 6th man getting significant minutes alongside Walton in place of Chatman and Irvin.
Donnal is the 7th man and 1st post off the bench followed by Max B.
The Doyle/Wilson winner is the 9th and final player in the rotation allowing us to play 2 posts at times and sliding Chatman/Irvin to SF.
And you're exactly right...
Totally did. That actually makes me feel a hell of a lot better.
Horford
McGary
Irvin
LeVert
Walton
Spike is still 1st off the bench
Chatman
Donnal and Max B round it out.
I don't like the idea of Horford starting. He's not as effective on the pick and roll, and he's not an effective post player on offense. If he does start (which likely means that GRIII left early), then I think Michigan will take a step backward.
At times he looks like the most skilled big man on Michigan's roster. He flashes good footwork and good touch. Then other times he looks like he is lost out there, or completely over thinking the situation instead of just finishing. And he still gets blasted through on defense.
He's a pretty solid big to have coming off the bench, and if he can be more consistent then I think he can be a decent plug as a starter, but until then I agree. If McGary doesn't come back, I worry about the 5 spot next year as Michigan doesn't have much muscle on the back line at all and will be forced to be much more of a pick and pop type team (along with other things) and will likely have to go away from the pick and roll for the majority of plays.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^
Yeah, I think the same things about Horford. He always seems hesitant. And I was really pissed off at him yesterday when the Kentucky post guy (Poythress, maybe?) blew by him and Horford didn't even move an inch.
March 31st, 2014 at 11:15 AM ^
I think Horford lost confidence as the season went on and Morgan seized control of the center position. In January, when it really was "Morford" at center, he played very well at times. He dropped 14 and 9 against a big Minnesota frontline. I think that if he gets more consistent minutes, he'll be more consistent. By the end of this season, Morgan was playing 30+ minutes every night if he wasn't in foul trouble, which didn't leave Horford a lot of time. He was on a short leash.
Now I am going to go tamp down my big puppy returns hopes now.
I'm not saying that this will happen, but maybe just maybe these kids really like college, and want to come back and play a full year together. I really do expect all 3 of them to leave, but they all seem like they love playing basketball at the Univesity of Michigan. Maybe we'll get one more year.
I really liked college, but I'll tell you what - you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who likes it to the tune of a $1,000,000+ opportunity cost.
Well, if nothing else, they do have some time to make these decisions as I believe the deadline for declaring is April 27thI will say that I did like the point about player development that was mentioned in this thread - we sent two players to the NBA last year and could send a couple more this year, so there is definitely no trouble building talent that the league perceives as worthy. That's definitely a compliment to the program under Beilein.
I hope they stay. They look like they have fun being on the court together.
thanks to the OP....
Note that in the mlive article, McGary sounded like he will stay.... YEAH BABY.
The way I see it, that Nik will leave, Glenn will stay due to wanting to play with Mitch at the 3, and vastly improve his draft stock. Glenn would likely become a lottery pick if he shows what he can do at the 3 spot...
We are gonna keep 2 of the 3... and Nik may surprise all of us. (wishful thinking)
March 31st, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
The article sounds promising, but keep in mind that guys often say those types of things in the heat of the moment. Darius Morris was definitely staying - until he wasn't.
If we lose all three, then things get interesting.
Can Levert make the jump next year that Stuaskas made this year (or even, say, 75% of the jump)?
Can Irvin replace GRIII?
Can Chatman/Doyle/Donnal step it up?
And is Horford really a starter?
I think if we lose all 3, we are probably a 20 win team, maybe a 6 seed or so next year. Not bad, all things considered.
And if any of the sophs return..that is just a cherry on top.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^
I think that Michigan's options with Walton, Irvin and Caris make Nik's absence less of a problem than losing Robinson which is less than a problem than losing Mitch. The hardest guy to replace will be Morgan...if Mitch stays than I see good things ahead regardless of what Nik and Glenn decide.
March 31st, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^
March 31st, 2014 at 10:00 AM ^
or disappointed in him if he sees a path out now. His duty to himself and his family is to make the best decision about his career. Our desires. . .
March 31st, 2014 at 10:03 AM ^
i wouldn't be surprised if he declared but he never consistently showcased his talent, never seemed to want to lead and seemed like he couldn't hit a shot when the basket was in front of him when in the key, at least what I saw from watching him during the tournament.
I don't presonally think he's ready but then again, he might have been holding back in college and really show his stuff when he is actually getting paid to play basketball.
I personally think he should go pro because I don't see him as a catalyst to lead the team from my very far vantage point. Of course, I am not on the team so I could be 100% wrong about his dedication and desire to lead.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^
if they all stay, book your tickets for the 2015 final four
March 31st, 2014 at 11:10 AM ^
My humble percentage guesses as to them leaving:
Nik- 99%
Glen- 60%
Mitch- 50%
March 31st, 2014 at 10:37 AM ^
Despite being Big Ten POY, Stauskas will be the easiest guy to replace (though there would be a gaping hole at the back-up 2 spot). Michigan will have shooting with LeVert, Irvin, and Walton/Spike.
Michigan will have a very tough time in the paint if Robinson and McGary leave. Chatman and Wilson are both really skinny (and I saw an interview in which Wilson said he thought he'd play the 3 or the 2 - not the 4). Donnal is unproven, and Doyle will be a three-star true freshman. Horford, Bielfeldt, Donnal, Doyle, and mabye Chatman at the 4-5 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me. I think Donnal, Doyle, Chatman could become a very good group down the line, but next year seems like a stretch.
It's worth remembering that Michigan has gone from a team that was happy to make the tournament to a team that has been Big Ten champs ('12), national runner up ('13), and outright Big Ten champs/in the Elite Eight ('14). One year of being down compared to that run wouldn't be so bad.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:52 AM ^
I agree with what you're saying about losing bodies, but I think Michigan needs another creater if Stauskas leaves as well. A lot will expect that to be Irvin, but I think Walton takes a leap forward and becomes more consistent like the guy he was against OSU earlier this year. If he doesn't, I still think LeVert, even if he just treads water, is solid, and the combo of Walton, Irvin, and Chatman can be enough to still be quite good on the perimeter.
But you're right, if GRIII and McGary leaves, the 4 spot is scary against certain match ups. You can get away against a lot of lesser teams without a big 4, so they could plug in Irvin in limited time (he's still optimally a 3 by far though), and Donnal, Doyle, Chatman, ect and get away with it. What it does do is severely limit the ceiling though, and forces Michigan to need more luck with matchups than they otherwise would. For instance, I think Michigan would still be a better overall team than MSU, but I wouldn't want that matchup against Dawson with any of those guys playing the 4. I think there are a few teams that could really hurt Michigan there.
March 31st, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^
An assumption on my part is that LeVert will continue to bloom and fill that role. He looks to my untrained eye like a guy who is far from his ceiling as a player...Nobody pays me to be a scout, though.
March 31st, 2014 at 11:21 AM ^
March 31st, 2014 at 11:29 AM ^
...I absolutely agree. I meant to include him in the 4-5 group. I hope neither he nor Donnal is ever pressed into service at the 5. Doyle looks like a true 5 to me, though he's only 6'9".
March 31st, 2014 at 11:24 AM ^
I could not have summed up better myself. Spot on. My only addition is to highlight "should go" vs. "will go". I am afraid GRIII will go, he should not. He cannot generate off the dribble yet and the 3 position in the NBA is ultra athletic. Plus he has no ability to post up whatsover. He needs to diversify his game. Yes he plays out of position, but going to his natural position won't necessarily benefit him at the next level.
I may be naive, but I truly believe Beilin recognizes what the kids need and helps them work on it during the year. He is pushing Robinson to generate his offense and drive. He will benefit from another year, no question.
Stauskas needs to learn to post up at his height he will need some post up ability in the NBA, but honestly that is all he needs, he should go, but god I hope not.
Can't add anything to McGary. You nailed it.
Thanks for the great post.
On a side note, I wonder if there is a way to quantify the coaching of Beilin. I have to beleive NBA GM's love kids from his program. They are complete basketball players, not just athletes. 3 years in his program have got to be equal or better to any coach in the NCAA?
March 31st, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
March 31st, 2014 at 11:44 AM ^
Robinson / McGary decision will be both or neither. He said it could partly come down to how much McGary can do for predraft workouts. They don't have to declare until April 27th. I would expect they may both wait until then.
March 31st, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
my money is on both (unfortunately). GRIII sounds like he's 3/4 out the door
March 31st, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
If all 3 go, I guess our starting 5 is Horford, Donnal, Irvin, LeVert, Walton and that's still a pretty good team. Great shooters, maybe weak down low. I expect Irvin and Walton to take a sophomore leap like Nik, Darius, Trey and Caris did before them.
If you can mix even one of McGary, GRIII, or Nik in there, that's suddenly a great team.
March 31st, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
but I imagine he'll be our 6th man scorer like Caris was last year and Zak was this year. Small responsibilities freshman year, then hopefully breakout sophmore year
McGary's age should NOT be as big of a deal as people make it. Payne is old (because he is a senior). McGary staying another year is equal to other players staying for their senior years. I know the NBA like younger players but McGary's age would factor in a lot more if he stayed 4 years instead of 3.
Dont blame Nik if he going to make bank.
McGary for sure needs to come back. We havent seen enough of him yet.
GRIII & McGary could go out absolute beast's next yr & make major bank.
Come on boys - give us one more run!!!
What an awesome team btw! Pure fuckin awesome to watch. If we had McGary in Sunday - we would have rolled!
GO Blue!