Michigan Basketball: Domination until further notice. (2015/2016 outlook)

*Also possible for Nik and Glen to leave which would slide Donnal into the starting 4 spot and take a shirt off of either Wilson or Doyle. Don't do this to me Glen.........

Sorry, but I think it's very likely to happen.  Don't be selfish - if it's his dream and he's going to get drafted (1st or 2nd round) he should go.  The 1st round guarantee isn't needed for guys to feel it's time to go.  Look at Manny Harris and Darius Morris.  If they want to go and they're good enough to get drafted, they're going to go and they should go.

Glen Robinson isn't going to improve at Michigan any more than he would improve at the bottom of an NBA roster with an entire summer league to get ready.

Stauskus and McGary are gone. That's as good as done. It would be unwise for these kids to stay.  

GR3 - more questionable, but most likely he's gone too. 

But the real questions are, how do you "throw pre-reqs" at someone? And, how do you "practice grief"? Are there classes for that? 

I don't follow college basketball that closely but it seems like Michigan has been more prone to players leaving early than other schools, with the exception of the Jabari Parkers of the world. Is this because of the level of talent we're now getting or are other schools just more successful at keeping their players 3 or all 4 years? Is Beilein positioning Michigan as a two and done place to attract the better players?

would make for a competitive starting five in the B1G.  Please let it happen.  I have to think Doyle would get to RS in that situation too.  That's been the main benefit of Bielfeldt so far, giving us the chance to RS Donnal and possibly Doyle.

While I share the OP's enthusiasm, it does seem premature to make claims about the future.  Yes, this year's team has already exceeded expectations (especially considering the loss of McGary), but perhaps we should wait to see what this team does in the tournament before proclaiming the future of Michigan basketball is full of sunshine and unicorns.  I'm optimistic, but I also realize just a few things not quite turning out the way we hope could lead to a less than stellar season.

You put a lot of time and effort into this post. 

You could have spent that time doing something amazing!

Negged

I'm fairly pessimistic but I think all three leave.  If you had asked me a month ago, I'd say GR3 stayed, but the way he's played of late makes me think he's gone.  Stauskas has earned it.  I just don't see McGary staying with everyone else leaving, but he's the most likely to stay in my opinion.  

It's just too hard to project out the future given the huge uncertainties not only with who's staying, but who's coming in.  I like the discussion but there is absolutely nothing to go on here as far as speculation.

He's using Irvin as the only backup at three positions this season and he's not getting a lot of minutes. I can't see how he'll be compelled to burn Wilson's redshirt to add depth in your most likely scenario. I'd bank on on 8-9 man rotations continuing to be the norm however the roster shakes out.

I think you underestimate how the likelihood that GRIII and Mitch leave. The NBA is quite different from how football players develop and needing time. The vast majority of college basketball players are predetermined to not play in the NBA because of the step up. As several other posters have mentioned, the NBA drafts quite often on potential. And any player development that can be done in college, can more easily be done in the NBA where you are focusing exclusively on basketball (obviously excludes situations where players are focusing on partying/social life more).

The question becomes what is the cost/benefit ratio to staying. Basically, what return will GRIII or Mitch get if they stay. That benefit diminishes significantly as you get older in college. Yes, both Glenn and Mitch can develop more, but why can't they do that in the NBA. One of the issues with age is that few players are ready to make an immediate impact and take years to develop. If you're younger when you enter the NBA, then when you hit that level or preparedness, you are that much younger and will have that many extra years to play.

I think Glenn is more likely to go than not, especially if he gets a 1st Round grade. Mitch has to ask whether staying will boost his stock. He probably isn't a first round grade with the back injuries, but will another year of college cure that problem, especially when he gets another year older? Maybe. If it won't, he will want to enter the draft and start preparing for his career there.

If all three leave, I think we see a lot more Spike and Walton line-ups. Also, lots of 38+ games for Levert. Chatman will probably be more of a SF, although certainly can play SG. I don't know if Wilson will be ready to contribute immediately. And, although Biefeldt is shorter, he is more of a C than PF. If we lose all 3, we probably take a step back, unless Levert, Walton, and Irvin all take a big step forward (quite possible) and Donnal is ready to go.

There is a wise saying that things are never as bad as you fear when you are down and never as good as you think when you are up.  This rule probably applies to euphoric projections for the upcoming basketball seasons.  For instance, don't be surprised if McGary goes pro this year, being worried about how scouts will view his age.  Or GR3 going pro, realizing that his stock is based on potential, not performance.  I hope neither of these happens, but one may very well take place.  Let's just live in the present and enjoy these great days under our wonderful Coach Beilein.

Per Sam Webb today on the recruiting roundup, Jamal Murray was at the game Saturday. You might notice a couple of things from his profile. He's ranked #24 by Rivals, is a point guard and he's from ...Windsor. You have to believe he loves what he saw at the game.

I love Canadian guards.

Rivals Profile

WTKA Podcast

The podcast mentions several other BB recruits there and there is an update on Tyrone Wheatley Jr.'s recruitment.

There's been enough noise about all three of them going that I'll assume it likely until (happily) proven otherwise.  But after the way this year's team demolished expectations, I'm not going to count out next year's group.  LeVert with another 15lbs is going to be a load to try to keep from penetrating, and I think Walton's game takes a major leap forward.  If Irvin can develop his all-around game and go from a pure shooter/scorer into a quality overall player, that team will be plenty good.  If by some miracle we even get one of those three guys back, then count me thrilled.

My biggest concern going forward in general is finding a quality big man, ie not just a stretch four or tall guy that can shoot, but someone with some semblance of a post game, some rebounding and defensive ability, etc.  Assuming McGary goes, there doesn't seem to be anyone behind Horford that fits that mold, and he'll be gone the following season.

In your 2015-2016 scenario, I could see Caris leaving after next year putting Chatman at the 3 and Zak Irvin at the 2.

Got a BTT to win and an NCAA tourney to make a run in first.  Check back in April.

It's going to be very tough for Bielfeldt to get minutes going forward, even if McGary/GRIII leave.  

Donnal, Chatman, and Wilson all have the size/length to play the four in Beilein's system and offer much greater skill (Donnal probably already has a better jump shot and is a more skilled offensive player, Wilson can shoot, pass, and handle, and Chatman may be the most versatile player on the team next year).  Hell, if McGary stays I think playing him at the four alongside Horford/Doyle would offer more upside than putting Moose in.  And if GRIII stays...really don't see how Max B gets on the floor.  

If we lose all three potential NBA guys this spring, I think that this is probably a 9-9 B1G team next year.  Those are just going to be brutal losses to absorb and we are going to have major front court issues.  The '14 class isn't as highly regarded as the '12 and '13 classes. 

In the years after, I expect us to be better than .500 in the B1G, but I think that we'll need another group like the '12 class to win it outright.

Where it stands now, I think Stauskas is definitely gone and I would lean towards Robinson and McGary returning.  Robinson has improved his play over the last couple weeks but he can still raise his stock more than any other player on the roster if he can get his 3 point % closer to the mid-30's and continue to improve his play making ability.  I think Mitch is the most likely to stay simply because his stock just isn't that high as of now.  Gun to head, I think both Glenn and Mitch come back next year.  If they do return then UM is the clear Big Ten favorite along with Wisconsin.  If all 3 were to leave then UM would be around the same level as OSU and IU, meaning a step below the conference favorite but still a threat to win the title.

It's also important to note that with the exception of Mitch and possibly GRIII, no one - not even Beilein, I think - was thinking of any of our potential or actual early entries as such.  Beilein was planning on having guys who stuck around for 3-4 years, but he and the staff have just been that good at identifying and developing talent. 

And as many others have said, the opportunity to hone what you've been doing best all your life at the highest level with its concomitant compensation is a life-changing thing that more often than not is too good to pass up.  There are unfortunately too many cases where jumping to the NBA was the wrong decision - I personally think Darius Morris would've been better off staying - but if you are good enough, you are doing yourself a disservice by staying in college.  If I was a rockstar finance major who was being considered as a high draft pick by Chase Manhattan, I could probably better my draft stock by staying in school and I'm very likely not leaving that much money off the table since I can be a hedge fund managar for all my adult life up through my 60's.

That is most assuredly NOT the case for an NBA prospect.