Honestly I have no idea what will happen.
Michigan Basketball: Domination until further notice. (2015/2016 outlook)
I know exactly what is going to happen.
We will eventually run into some bad luck or injuries and will fail to live up to such lofty expectations.
At which point the same people who are singing such high praise will turn on Beilein and the kids, screaming about how this team has no heart, how it is all unacceptable, and how Beilein has lost his touch and call for a new coach. Hell, that was occurring this year early on with our slow start.
It is pretty obvious...
Could it get better? No, this is an awesome fun team that is a national contender. It cannot get any better than this. It will hopefully continue to be great.
And no team is a likely national champion. 1/3 chance is as good as you can get I'd say, and that's after a dominant season and heading into the tournament. Preseason, even the most elite returning roster I'd say no more than 10%.
Not trying to be a downer, just trying to keep things realistic. Ultimately, Beilein looks capable of keeping this show running. I don't think he needs 5-star studs to do it either.
Saying a team is likely National Title Team is a bit of a stretch....but that roster is absolutely stacked. In 1993 The Fab Five was a likely Champion that fell just short in the Title Game so it's probably ill-worded on my part to boast that potential 2015 Michigan squad in that manner. I just don't see that team losing if healthy.
You must not watch much NCAA basketball.
If Mitch McGary comes back this tournament, we have a good shot at a national championship. No team scares me like Louisville last year. Florida skated by against Auburn and Mississippi State. Arizona has lost to quite a few Pac 12 teams and we barely lost to them in December. Syracuse is on free fall.
His mere presence would provide a lift for this club.....as if they need it lol. I think Belein is going to coach this next month with some fire after the B1G coaches did him that severe injustice of denying him B1G COY. That was absolutely ridiculous.
Beilein wasn't COY?
He was the B1G COY per the media, but the coaches voted Miles from Nebraska as their coach of the year. As impressive as Beilein was, I have absolutely no issue with Miles getting this piece of hardware as he absolutely deserved it. Even as a U of M homer, I, and may others here, think the bigger injustice would've been if Miles walked away without any award.
I NEGGED YOU BECAUSE HOU DAR U BE A MICHIGAN FAN AND EVER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT ANYONE ELSE IS EVER WORTHY OF AN HONOR.
Actually no I did the opposite in order to cancel out the drooling idiot who did do that.
Miles did an amazing job and he deserves tons of credit, he did not deserve that award over Beilein. The biggest reason many believe Miles should win is because he took a team predicted last in the conference to 11 wins, so they outperformed expectation by a lot. But what is missed is that once Mcgary went down everyone was expecting Michigan to be a bubble team, and finishing around 9-9 or best case 10-8 in conference. So basically Michigan outperformed expectation by 5-6 games while playing the toughest schedule in the league with one plays against PSU, NW and Illinois. Given that the worst team in conference won 5 games, Nebraska outperformed expectation by 6 games with the 11-7 mark. Nebraska also played a significantly easier schedule by only playing MSU, Wisconsin, minnesota and Iowa once. Im not losing sleep over it as Beilein is so classy I dont think he cares, but there is no way Beilein isn't the coach of the year.
I doubt he feels an injustice in any way. He said the award doesn't mean anything, and it belonged to miles.
Agreed. I'd bet a candy bar that Beilein voted for Miles in the coaches vote. And not a cheap candy bar. One of those big ones they charge a full $1.25 for in the vending machines.
Mitch if he was available for the Final Four tournament. Trouble is he is not in basketball shape, let alone prepared to get in the mix; he hasn't practiced with the team has he? No doubt he would catch on quickily but in a one and done scenario can we afford to give him the time he needs to adjust?
but the way Coach Beilein develops talent can be our undoing! I think next year is going to be similar to how this year went; I wouldn't be surprised if both McGary and Stauskas go, and even Glenn might test the waters. Mitch is getting old and if his back is 100% over the off season he's probably going to be in the first round. Glenn has tremendous upside that he is just starting to touch; that might be enough for a team to take a chance on him.
I think Caris is going to have a next year similar to how Nic had it, that he's going to step up and be 'The Man'. I don't think he's going to be here as a senior btw, I think he'll be leaving after next year, he's simply making too much progress. Hopefully Glenn comes back, I think the light goes on for him next year and if that's the case we may have yet another special team to root for. Horford will be the 'ole man' next year to provide a steady focus While Walton will also continue to blossom. Spike will improve and provide valuable minutes, and perhaps Chatman can give us some good minutes that will have us bemoaning him being a 2 year and done guy as well.
And that's the crux of the issue; Coach B develops talent and the talent leaves! The average talent level for the team will rise - there will be more Jordan Morgans in the mix - so I'm thinking Final Four/Elite Eight appearances will be common for our Wolverines in the coming years but will we keep enough players year to year to win it all?
McGary simply doesn't have the body of work to justify a 1st round choice if not completely healthy. It would be a HUGE risk for him entering the Draft this year. The age aspect is overrated and has nothing to do with a rookie contract when you look at the big picture. It's inflated how much teams actually care about a kid being 20 or 22 because it likely effects teams that offer the 2nd contract. The NBA and their scouts like to coax all the college talent into jumping into the league because it's a business. I would hate to see another Michigan kid fall victim to leaving too early. Manny and Darius both left a year early and it has adversely effected their careers.
DeAndre Kane of Iowa State is 26 IIRC. He'll be taken in the 2nd round this year. Age is overrated. Plus, when you draft a guy, you're only guaranteed to have him on your team for the initial term of his contract which would still leave a guy like Kane under the age of 30 at the point where his contract expires.
...whenever I see your username I become illiterate for a brief moment...always comes out "yp suck it boy".
And the phallic symbol doesn't help either...
Haha. Well, I think Mr. William R. Coats (architect of the Water Tower) would be slightly offended at your characterization of Ypsilanti's most famous monument, but that's your prerogative.
Haha- not knowing about Ypsi very much left me no options on the giant pen...water-tower.
Now I see it though. My apologies to Mr. William R. Coats!
Still can't read your username though.
Your logic is not wrong, but I think you are missing the other side. If Mitch comes back and gets hurt again, not unlikely with a back injury, his NBA stock is really going to tank. On the flip side Glenn came back and saw his stock take a huge hit, both may not be willing to chance that happening again. I think both should come back as I am not sure if either is NBA material, but coming back has big downside potential for their draft status. But then there is that whole Michigan degree thing.....
Nobody should expect a national title when you have to play a 68 team single elimination tournament to get one.
However, I don't have a problem with expecting a contender. Especially with how the coaches have shown they can fill holes left by key players from the previous season.
a final four and championship this year.
Would be the loss of an assistant coach. Let's hope that doesn't happen but you have to think Jordan (and Bicari) is on plenty of AD hiring lists.
While long term it might be nice for Jordan to get some head coaching experience since it seems he's our next head coach.
His development of guys and ability to recruit and identify means so much to our program. We need him, especially now when we're facing a couple of HUGE recruiting years.
These next two years could be what keeps Michigan on top. We've got to find a way to capitalize on the recent success AND replinish what we've got.
With all due respect to Novak and Douglass, we were solid, but we didn't become GREAT until we started pulling in these highly touted kids.
Thanks for this discussion. I love looking ahead, even while enjoying another March. A few randomly ordered thoughts:
-I think Mitch could be tempted to jump due to age. Even as a second rounder, he starts his NBA clock sooner, which gets him to a potential second contract sooner. If he's healthy enough for pre-draft workouts, he could even end up as the ideal candidate for a team like the Spurs late in the first.
-I disagree that we need to hit a home run with PG in 2015. PG is a luxury until the 2016 class due to the depth on the roster. To get a true blue chip point, they will likely need to see a faster path to playing time than a potential Jr. Walton/Sr. Spike depth chart. Of course, things change. Walton could make the leap in year 2. And Michigan is still recruiting Brunson, even if (according to Sam Webb) they've slowed their recruitment of other 2015 points.
-Completely agree that we need a talented big in 2015. I hope Diamond Stone has continued to watch closely after his visit last year, because there's an opportunity for quick playing time here.
-I have to think that Nik is gone. His draft stock will likely never be higher, and I don't think we can discount the impact of seeing Glenn and Mitch come back, only to have their draft stock fall. We should enjoy every one of these last 9 games ;)
Horford is gone after next year and McGary is too if he even stays. Max B could easily do that 5th year somewhere else so he can get some playing time.
That leaves you with Donnal and Doyle.
We need a big time, even one-and-done type freshman. We need Stone, Zimmerman, Jeter or Dickerson.
We also need a guard, but it can be more of a LeVert type than someone who you're counting on as a freshman.
Now I think we lose Nik...and GRIII.
I think we lose Nik because he just desperately wants to play in the NBA. He's accomplished his individual goals here at Michigan. I think we lose GRIII simply because he's bored with college.
No facts. Just my opinion.
Before the season I thought everyone would return for a national title run. Now I think the only way that happens is if we get close and don't get it.
I think McGary comes back even though Glenn Robinson leaves. It's not like they'd be playing on the same team in the NBA, so even though they're best friends, they don't really have to declare at the same time.
Then again, McGary's age scares me. He may leave just because he's old. But I'm going to say no. I'm going to say he stays for one more year.
If this happens, I'm guessing your starting lineup is Horford-McGary-Irvin-LeVert-Walton. Spike and Chatman become your top subs and Donnal/Bielfeldt give you minutes in the post.
Not a bad lineup, but it would be totally contingent on Irvin learning how to be a more well-rounded player rather than a chucker like he is now. My guess is that we'd play a LOT of minutes with both Spike and Walton.
Irvin starting in 2 years, fine...next year? Scares me. This is why if there is ANY way Nik could come back, it would be AWESOME. Because I think Caris is a GREAT #2, I don't think he's a #1 option though. Not next year. Again, in 2 years, absolutely.
In the end, I don't think it would hurt Nik or Glenn by returning. They both have some glaring things that they need to work on. Same way THJ worked on his game between his sophomore and junior years (and didn't lose ground in the draft).
Nik needs to continue working on his game going to his left. He could improve his ball handling so that playing PG in the NBA in spurts is an option (i.e. Grevis Vasquez, Lance Stephenson, or even Dwayne Wade). He still needs to get better defensively. Lastly, I'd like to see him develop a little post game against smaller guards. THJ REALLY improved in all of these areas his junior year and I think Stauskas could certainly do the same. Imagine if he could take a guy like Appling down in the post and hit a turnaround jumper.
Glenn's improvements are more energy/effort/toughness related, but he can still get more consistent with his shot (from 2 and from 3). He DESPERATELY needs to add a post game. Not because he's going to play PF in the NBA, but because SF's don't just stand on the outside and shoot or cut backdoor in the NBA. However, moreso than develop a game of his own, he needs to develop his post defense. Because right now there are 20 SF's that are going to see him and head straight to the block...and he won't be able to do anything. Overall consistency and post game (offensively and defensively) is where GRIII needs to work.
Can we stop this "McGary is too old nonsense already?" He is turns 22 this June and would be 23 if he comes back another year. Payne is sitting at 23 right now. How come we didn't talk about Paynes age as a big factor last year? The only way age is a big factor is if McGary comes back for 2 more years which is just not going to happen. It's a nice narrative but it really doesn't hold up.
Lot's of people were saying Payne should go last year.
Payne made the right choice by staying another year. He's really improved in the last two years.
Age makes a big difference in the eyes of NBA scouts. Last year, I remember reading Mason Plumlee (Duke/Nets) probably would have a been a top-5 or top-10 pick if he was a sophomore instead of a senior.
and everything to do with him playing four years in college. That's what put him closer to his perceived ceiling.
Agreed. If he was just as good as a Soph, he would have been drafted higher. That's different than saying they didn't want to draft a guy his age.
I think this age thing is way overblown. Why does a team care if a guy is 23 instead of 20? That team will only have him for about 5 years (on average) anyway, and that's if he's not an initial bust. That takes him to 28, well within his prime.
And bigs take longer to develop. I'm sure a lot of teams would rather take a 23 year old who has had a lot of good coaching over a 20 year old who they need to pay 3 mil a year while he receives it.
NBADraft.net - which never gets anything correct has Stauskas as a high 2nd round pick.
I think we need to pump the breaks just a little. Stauskas could get his stuff back from the advisory committee and it not be what he wants. If it says late first on it...he's not going to hurt himself by returning for a year.
Personally, I see him in the #15-#25 range with the late teens being the most likely. This puts him with a team like Boston (good fit as well). But as more guys declare for the draft, the more crowded it gets at the top.
But just take a look at the lottery of their mock draft, it's going to be tough for Stauskas to crack that bad boy. They've even got Gordon at Arizona down at least #21. I'd put Nik right where I said before in that 15-25 range with the late teens being most likely.
If he stays for a shot to win a national championship and they all declare together after next year...he's not going to hurt his chances. He's still the #1 option so he should be fine. I doubt he improves on his potential positioning, but it shouldn't get worse either.
If you can't improve your draft stock, there's little reason to come back. Stauskas has done everything he can do at the college level short of winning it all. And winning it all in college basketball is a totall lotto ball proposition, even for the best teams.
All the tea leaves have been about it being his dream. If that's his dream, he should go.
Same with GR3 and Mitch. They almost went last year. They're likely gone. You can look at all the draft boards you want, but it comes down to what the players want and they clearly want to be in the NBA.
My money is on all three leaving. I wish, for him and his family's sake, Mitch had went last year. I'd bet his age is becoming a concern among NBA execs when coupled with the back issues. You usually can't expect much growth out of 23 year olds.
He could easily play himself into a lottery selection next season. I think there is too much thought and over emphasis put on a couple of years in terms of player age. NBA execs want players that can help their ball club...not projects that take their entire rookie contract to develop...only to lose them to free agency. McGary and GR3 need to come back. Nik would do himself a favor by coming back also. He is a great talent but I think he would get exposed a bit in individual workouts especially against some of the other elite and seemingly more athletic wings coming out this year. I hate these scouts for enticing players to come out early. They simply do not have the kids' best interests at heary. Unfortunately money talks. It will be interesting to see who does what.
Ahh...excuse me? The NBA wants players to immediately help their ball clubs and not projects?
All the NBA does is draft on potential talent alone. How else do you explain Anthony Bennett being the #1 overall pick last year, you know the guy they wanted to send to the D-League because he was so bad or for that matter the majority of top #15 selections in the past 10 years? Fuck what about Darko?
Nik-honest to god skills, showed great improvment in all areas, potential is there
McGary-showed flashes but being sidelined will hurt his draft stock unless he comes back and has another monster March/April
GR3-(IMO) strictly a potential pick
Given the rookie salary structure in the NBA, there's not a vast difference, finanicially, from being a late lottery pick and a guy in the early 20s, roughly $1 to $1.5 million over the five year life of a contract (15% total). That difference is mitigated by the ability to get to a second contract (where the real salary escalators take effect) one year earlier.
Here's the rookie scale:
Now, it if was a matter of him pushing himself into the top 5-6 picks, then it would probably be financially worthwhile to do so (though the extra year of salary might still weigh against it) but if it's just a matter of 5 spots or so, it doesn't make sense, financially, to return.
Also, the place that Stauskas is going to learn what skills he needs to develop to play in the NBA at this point is the NBA. He's not going to learn how to play NBA defense (laugh all you want, teams are paying a huge amount of attention to complex defensive philosophies in the post-Thibs era) at the college level. It's going to take him a year playing in the NBA at least to understand how to play NBA help defense (watch how lost THJ and Burke are defensively sometime). He's also going to learn a lot more about how to run wing pick and rolls and occupy floor spacing positions (the two things he'll be called on to do a lot in the NBA) playing in the league than in his role in college.
I'd love for him to come back, because he's really fun to watch for M, but financially and basketball-wise, he should probably move on.
Robinson were likely tempted by the possibility of being lottery picks. Wanting to play in the NBA doesn't mean they don't have some terms.
Ask those guys that UNC that all came back to win a National Championship if they regret it. Either team (May/Felton/McCants) or (Hansbrough/Lawson/Ellington)
Ask Noah and those Florida Gators if they regret coming back to go back-to-back!
If McGary, GR3, and Stauskas come back and don't improve in the draft...it very well may be worth it to them if they win a National Championship.
You don't have to go just because your draft stock isn't going to get higher. Sometimes you just want to continue playing college basketball (like McDermott who could've left after last year), sometimes you want a shot at a college award or title, sometimes you just like college and college life.
Plenty of guys do this, mainly in football but that is because it's a bigger draft.
Lewan's stock didn't go up, should he regret his decision? What if we were actually good and won the B1G and the Rose Bowl like we set out to?
I don't think coming back is going to help or hurt any of these 3 guys. If GR3 blows up it'll help, but that's a huge IF at this point. McGary is most likely to help his stock simply by playing a full year. But no one is going to slide drastically like they all would if they stayed TWO years.
A bunch of guys showing up to play for a couple of years and then they are gone, to their preferred destinations.
It's somewhat surprising, that college basketball can maintain its popularity with the constant reshuffling of lineups. Even more surprising, that anyone can get any of the great collegiate players to show up for a single class. How many credits did Trey Burke complete?
College basketball is not like the NBA. Fans by definition root for Institutions, and then they root for players. This is not so much the case with the NBA. There is no following a player from team to team. You root for the school, and then you gain interest in the players in that program - its more of a top-down sort of fanhood, where in the NBA it is a mixture, sometimes top-down, sometimes bottom-up in which you root for a program based on its players.
The starting center, is getting his masters in engineering. Novak, Stu, Appling, Payne, are all 4 year players. There are 30 1st round draft picks every year for the NBA. With some of those going to seniors, there are only a handful of players each year that can leave early. The fact that Michigan has had a few over the last few years and has some more expected is not a failure of Michigan's education nor for the sport of college basketball. The fact that players are talented enough to go make a fortune doing something they love is great.
the crap out of this if I could.
That's really not how it goes. You have about 30 players, total, among all NCAA teams, leaving early for the NBA. About 5 per conference, and some of them were there for 3 years, like THJr. That's not exactly a ton of turnover.
Sure, Michigan has had a lot of these guys lately, if you count the guys currently on the roster. But even very good programs like MSU and OSU haven't had much of this for a while.
Last year was the first time since 2007 that more than two of them left early for the draft. Three of those five were juniors.
I can see Michigan in position to be one of the leaders of the B1G each year. Dominate is a strong word, especially for a tough conference like ours.
*Also possible for Nik and Glen to leave which would slide Donnal into the starting 4 spot and take a shirt off of either Wilson or Doyle. Don't do this to me Glen.........
Sorry, but I think it's very likely to happen. Don't be selfish - if it's his dream and he's going to get drafted (1st or 2nd round) he should go. The 1st round guarantee isn't needed for guys to feel it's time to go. Look at Manny Harris and Darius Morris. If they want to go and they're good enough to get drafted, they're going to go and they should go.
Glen Robinson isn't going to improve at Michigan any more than he would improve at the bottom of an NBA roster with an entire summer league to get ready.
On a serious note...I think GR3 needs another year of offensive maturation before he makes the jump. The difference in the NBA is that they can cut you. No guarantees once you declare....you better bring it....not sure GR3 is ready for that.
Maybe he leaves because his fans keep spelling his name wrong.
You keep saying "it's his dream." No shit. He's a college basketball player, and that can be said for probably 90% of all college basketball players, ever. That's doesn't mean every kid who has an NBA dream bails before it makes sense (though some do).
Stauskus and McGary are gone. That's as good as done. It would be unwise for these kids to stay.
GR3 - more questionable, but most likely he's gone too.
But the real questions are, how do you "throw pre-reqs" at someone? And, how do you "practice grief"? Are there classes for that?
I don't think McGary leaving is as certain as you think. I can't see why he would leave for the NBA when he has the chance to greatly improve his draft stock next season. If he somehow ends up playing in the tourney, I might change my opinion.
How can anyone claim that McGary is certainly gone?
1. Hit reply button.
2. Type "McGary is certainly gone."
But in all seriousness, I did explain my logic more in a post below.
How exactly is McGary as good as gone. He has played 1.3 seasons at Michigan and approximately 6 games of NBA type ball. Many GMS will disagree. Stauskas is outstanding but if you think he is just good and ready to go toe to toe with Lebron...KD....and Melo...Cmon. There is a difference between being a great college player and a great pro. If you don't project as a serious organization changing draft selection I'm not so sure giving up 2 years of eligibility is the best move one can make. There is a difference between a Jabari Parker and a Wiggins and a late first round or second round like some of our guys are projected.
Your whole logic throughout this thread is that the NBA drafts on a college body of work. This is certainly not the case. All one has to do is look at the guys who have skipped college altogether and who were drafted after one season. If McGary shows he can play up to his potential during draft workouts, his body of college work is near meaningless. The question is whether he will be healthy around draft time. If he is, as reports seem to suggest, he's gone.
His college body of work is not meaningless, and will likely play a large part in determining whether he comes back or not. He will get his draft analysis, which will be built on what those people know. They know he was pretty raw, that he had a great tourney run, and that he missed almost a full year due to a back injury.
He has as much bad as he has good. If I were him, I wouldn't declare until I can show scouts I can play at a high level while healthy. Draft workouts won't show that, and as long as that red flag is there, I'm leaving money on the table. If you can improve your stock from 30th overall to 20th overall, the money you gave up will be made up for and then some.
I said "near meaningless" for a reason. But you are right, his college body of work is more meaningful than "near meaningless", but I just dont think its as meaningful as you portay.
I don't follow college basketball that closely but it seems like Michigan has been more prone to players leaving early than other schools, with the exception of the Jabari Parkers of the world. Is this because of the level of talent we're now getting or are other schools just more successful at keeping their players 3 or all 4 years? Is Beilein positioning Michigan as a two and done place to attract the better players?
You have a confirmation bias. Lots of schools have early declarations. The reason you're seeing more Michigan kids flirt with the draft is because of 1) talent identification and 2) talent development, 2 things Beilein is exceptional at
in this day and age if you're one of the premier college programs in the country (say year in and year out Top 15ish), you are more then likely losing at least one player early to the nba every year.
I don't know about that. I'd say you're 50/50 to have a player leave early. How many programs haven't had one in a few years - MSU, OSU, UNC, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Louisville. Did any of those schools have an early entry last year? I might be wrong on some of those, but I know I'm missing some too.
would make for a competitive starting five in the B1G. Please let it happen. I have to think Doyle would get to RS in that situation too. That's been the main benefit of Bielfeldt so far, giving us the chance to RS Donnal and possibly Doyle.
getting Wilson a RS would happen too. A year in the weight room for him with his length would turn him into a monster. Was watching his highlights last night; plays like Austin Daye, college version.
As long as he doesn't play like Austin Daye, pro version.
But that's why I think him putting on weight isn't a huge deal. Guys like Daye or Tayshaun have been very successful at the college level that thin. Levert too. I'm sure he'll put on some weight naturally between his senior season and his frosh season here, but in basketball that's not as big of a deal.
While I share the OP's enthusiasm, it does seem premature to make claims about the future. Yes, this year's team has already exceeded expectations (especially considering the loss of McGary), but perhaps we should wait to see what this team does in the tournament before proclaiming the future of Michigan basketball is full of sunshine and unicorns. I'm optimistic, but I also realize just a few things not quite turning out the way we hope could lead to a less than stellar season.
M bball is not mythical
We're in good shape regardless of our Sophomore decisions (I think all 3 leave, fwiw). Your point is made. But there's no sense in predicting wins right now. The Big Ten is very very good. OSU, Indiana, and Maryland figure to have extremely talented teams in the next few years. Wisco is always good. MSU talent takes a step back on paper, but let's not kid ourselves. They'll be very good. Iowa should be in mix. Nebraska, Illinois, and Purdue have either good coaching, solid talent, or both. NW has some reason for optimism. Minny loses a lot in the short term, but I'll buy on Pitino.
My point is, the conference is great. No sense in sitting here and salivating over our roster because they'll have to earn every win, every year. But we are in good shape to be a contender with our best and worst case scenarios.
You put a lot of time and effort into this post.
You could have spent that time doing something amazing!
This made me lol.
GRIII is the hardest to get a read on. On the one hand, he might be better off in a professional environment. I don't think he is getting pushed hard enough on the college level, and he needs to be pushed. On the other hand, of the three, he seems the most likely to benefit from the experience of another season at Michigan, in more of a leadership role, another year older. I imagine the NBA would like to see him become more assertive, and that will likely happen if he stays.
McGary is a natural leader and will be on the next level. There really isn't any question about that if he is healthy, and there's the rub -- the decision really depends on his health. We don't know all that much about how it fits into preparing for the NBA combine and other workouts. Staying at Michgan another year would allow him complete control over his rehab, but maybe that's not enough -- his second contract in the NBA will be a big one, and if he stays he delays that by a year. Nonetheless, I tend to agree with the people who are saying he should stay and become a lottery pick next year.
Stauskas seems (to me) like he wants to go. I also tend to agree with the conventional wisdom that he has progressed as far as he can at Michigan. He can reprise this year and be just fine, maybe improving as a defender.
In sum, I think GRIII might be persuaded to stay, by his father and others. But McGary is gone if he is healthy. Stauskas I don't know.
I'm fairly pessimistic but I think all three leave. If you had asked me a month ago, I'd say GR3 stayed, but the way he's played of late makes me think he's gone. Stauskas has earned it. I just don't see McGary staying with everyone else leaving, but he's the most likely to stay in my opinion.
It's just too hard to project out the future given the huge uncertainties not only with who's staying, but who's coming in. I like the discussion but there is absolutely nothing to go on here as far as speculation.
Every win has to be earned. Michigan could lose on Friday, for example.
There's no way we retain all 3 of these guys. I could see legitimate situations where each individual guy will want to stay, but the odds of getting them all back are slim to nill. Just from a pure odds standpoint.
I think there's a good chance McGary comes back. Yes he won't want to further risk injury, but he doesn't have much stock to work with now anyway (6 game stretch from a year ago). Might want to take another year to re-establish it. One more year could bring him to lottery pick status.
I think Stauskas is gone since he's playing really well and his stock might not get much higher, and GRIII is probably gone too. I could see him staying, and he might want to stay one more year to establish more assertiveness on the court. But I don't see him staying.
I think McGary stays and we lose the other two. It'll hurt, but someone(s) will step up and fill production. And with betting on the further development of Walton, Irvin, Albrecht, and LeVert, and some pretty good freshmen on the way, it might be a pick your poison type of situation.
He's using Irvin as the only backup at three positions this season and he's not getting a lot of minutes. I can't see how he'll be compelled to burn Wilson's redshirt to add depth in your most likely scenario. I'd bank on on 8-9 man rotations continuing to be the norm however the roster shakes out.
I think you underestimate how the likelihood that GRIII and Mitch leave. The NBA is quite different from how football players develop and needing time. The vast majority of college basketball players are predetermined to not play in the NBA because of the step up. As several other posters have mentioned, the NBA drafts quite often on potential. And any player development that can be done in college, can more easily be done in the NBA where you are focusing exclusively on basketball (obviously excludes situations where players are focusing on partying/social life more).
The question becomes what is the cost/benefit ratio to staying. Basically, what return will GRIII or Mitch get if they stay. That benefit diminishes significantly as you get older in college. Yes, both Glenn and Mitch can develop more, but why can't they do that in the NBA. One of the issues with age is that few players are ready to make an immediate impact and take years to develop. If you're younger when you enter the NBA, then when you hit that level or preparedness, you are that much younger and will have that many extra years to play.
I think Glenn is more likely to go than not, especially if he gets a 1st Round grade. Mitch has to ask whether staying will boost his stock. He probably isn't a first round grade with the back injuries, but will another year of college cure that problem, especially when he gets another year older? Maybe. If it won't, he will want to enter the draft and start preparing for his career there.
If all three leave, I think we see a lot more Spike and Walton line-ups. Also, lots of 38+ games for Levert. Chatman will probably be more of a SF, although certainly can play SG. I don't know if Wilson will be ready to contribute immediately. And, although Biefeldt is shorter, he is more of a C than PF. If we lose all 3, we probably take a step back, unless Levert, Walton, and Irvin all take a big step forward (quite possible) and Donnal is ready to go.
There is a wise saying that things are never as bad as you fear when you are down and never as good as you think when you are up. This rule probably applies to euphoric projections for the upcoming basketball seasons. For instance, don't be surprised if McGary goes pro this year, being worried about how scouts will view his age. Or GR3 going pro, realizing that his stock is based on potential, not performance. I hope neither of these happens, but one may very well take place. Let's just live in the present and enjoy these great days under our wonderful Coach Beilein.
Per Sam Webb today on the recruiting roundup, Jamal Murray was at the game Saturday. You might notice a couple of things from his profile. He's ranked #24 by Rivals, is a point guard and he's from ...Windsor. You have to believe he loves what he saw at the game.
I love Canadian guards.
The podcast mentions several other BB recruits there and there is an update on Tyrone Wheatley Jr.'s recruitment.
There's been enough noise about all three of them going that I'll assume it likely until (happily) proven otherwise. But after the way this year's team demolished expectations, I'm not going to count out next year's group. LeVert with another 15lbs is going to be a load to try to keep from penetrating, and I think Walton's game takes a major leap forward. If Irvin can develop his all-around game and go from a pure shooter/scorer into a quality overall player, that team will be plenty good. If by some miracle we even get one of those three guys back, then count me thrilled.
My biggest concern going forward in general is finding a quality big man, ie not just a stretch four or tall guy that can shoot, but someone with some semblance of a post game, some rebounding and defensive ability, etc. Assuming McGary goes, there doesn't seem to be anyone behind Horford that fits that mold, and he'll be gone the following season.
In your 2015-2016 scenario, I could see Caris leaving after next year putting Chatman at the 3 and Zak Irvin at the 2.
I think all 3 leave and are drafted in the first round. Nik on the edge of the lottery. Glenn and Mitch mid to late first where good teams can take the chance on potential while being patient. The NBA Draft is all about potential and less on production. I think both Glenn and Mitch will impress in pre-draft workouts and will be too enticing to pass up. I know people think Glenn is not ready for the NBA and and he probably isn't. That hasn't stopped guys before. I think he is like a passive Shawn Marion when he was at UNLV. Marion scored a lot on dunks and put backs at UNLV. Marion was a much better rebounder but Glenn has a much better form on his shot. I think with his form his percentage improves. Marion was the 9th pick in his draft. Marion developed a three point shot while in the NBA. I think Glenn has a chance to really develop at Michigan or the NBA in the next couple years. If he develops an edge his game goes to another level some guys never do. Either way I appreciate what they've done for the program and we know the coaching staff will have the next man up mentality.
Got a BTT to win and an NCAA tourney to make a run in first. Check back in April.
It's going to be very tough for Bielfeldt to get minutes going forward, even if McGary/GRIII leave.
Donnal, Chatman, and Wilson all have the size/length to play the four in Beilein's system and offer much greater skill (Donnal probably already has a better jump shot and is a more skilled offensive player, Wilson can shoot, pass, and handle, and Chatman may be the most versatile player on the team next year). Hell, if McGary stays I think playing him at the four alongside Horford/Doyle would offer more upside than putting Moose in. And if GRIII stays...really don't see how Max B gets on the floor.
I don't think we need to land a homerun center in 2015. Obviously, it'd be great, but we've shown we can do some good things without having great centers.
I don't think we need a "homerun" center, no. We've got scoring and will likely continue to have scoring, so a big body that can just give us a bit of a physical and defensive presence plus pull down his share of rebounds would probably suffice. He won't have to be a 5* - If Beilein snags a 6'10"+ 3* interior player then consider me highly optimistic based on our current hot streak of player development.
To the second point, yes, we've won without a high caliber post player. Of course, you can also look back at what having a great center did for us in March last year vs all the other Beilein teams. Is there any chance we lose to Ohio if we'd had a great post player the year before last? How good would the team that Morris almost lead past Duke have been with a good big? What about the Harris and Sims team if Udoh had stuck around?
I certainly don't want to be accused of sticking a glass ceiling over my expectations for this program in any way, not given what we've accomplished the last two seasons. So let's just say it would make our exemplary achievement at a super high level a little bit easier if we had a big body under the basket.
If we lose all three potential NBA guys this spring, I think that this is probably a 9-9 B1G team next year. Those are just going to be brutal losses to absorb and we are going to have major front court issues. The '14 class isn't as highly regarded as the '12 and '13 classes.
In the years after, I expect us to be better than .500 in the B1G, but I think that we'll need another group like the '12 class to win it outright.
See, if this were the 2012 version of the Big Ten then I would agree that .500 in conference play is likely without the three players in question. I think the conference as a whole will take a pretty big step back next year, especially if players like Vonleh, Dekker and Petteway make the leap. I'd still expect something along the lines of 12-6 or 11-7 if all three UM players left early.
You say the '12 and '13 classes are highly regarded, so remember that some key members will be a year older.
LeVert will return and if he can continue his incremental improvement should be a B1G POY contender. Walton is already showing flashes of being a great point guard and another year working with Lavall Jordan should help him take a big leap. Irvin has had a smaller role, but this guy was still Mr. Basketball. Even if he only improves his defense and remains a one-dimensional shooter, he will still be huge as a third option. If he adds the off-the-dribble game he was expected to have out of high school...will be a serious offensive threat.
On top of all that, Donnal should provide a strong post presence and Beilein's first true pick-and-pop threat (Smotrycz never completely panned out). Kam Chatman looks like a great fit occasionally running the point forward but mainly causing mismatches at every position.
There will probably be defensive growing pains and we may miss the leadership of Morgan, but there will still be enough talent for a 4/5 seed. I think Walton-LeVert could be the best backcourt in the B1G next year.
Where it stands now, I think Stauskas is definitely gone and I would lean towards Robinson and McGary returning. Robinson has improved his play over the last couple weeks but he can still raise his stock more than any other player on the roster if he can get his 3 point % closer to the mid-30's and continue to improve his play making ability. I think Mitch is the most likely to stay simply because his stock just isn't that high as of now. Gun to head, I think both Glenn and Mitch come back next year. If they do return then UM is the clear Big Ten favorite along with Wisconsin. If all 3 were to leave then UM would be around the same level as OSU and IU, meaning a step below the conference favorite but still a threat to win the title.
It's also important to note that with the exception of Mitch and possibly GRIII, no one - not even Beilein, I think - was thinking of any of our potential or actual early entries as such. Beilein was planning on having guys who stuck around for 3-4 years, but he and the staff have just been that good at identifying and developing talent.
And as many others have said, the opportunity to hone what you've been doing best all your life at the highest level with its concomitant compensation is a life-changing thing that more often than not is too good to pass up. There are unfortunately too many cases where jumping to the NBA was the wrong decision - I personally think Darius Morris would've been better off staying - but if you are good enough, you are doing yourself a disservice by staying in college. If I was a rockstar finance major who was being considered as a high draft pick by Chase Manhattan, I could probably better my draft stock by staying in school and I'm very likely not leaving that much money off the table since I can be a hedge fund managar for all my adult life up through my 60's.
That is most assuredly NOT the case for an NBA prospect.
I think the meme that Belein only or primarily recruits guys he thinks are going to stay for 3 to 4 years is bogus. He recruits guys to fill roles, and some guys may take more develpment to fill those roles. Yes, he recruits guys who are not NBA-calibur (again, he recruits to fill roles, not to prepare for the NBA) but this does not mean that he recruits based on the amount of time he thinks they will be around. Looking at a guy like McGary and other guys Belien has gone after, he recruits guys to fill roles, whether those roles will be filled for one year or four years.
What do you think Michigan's starting lineup would have looked like if he had stayed? It's very interesting to think about.
Given Trey Burke's skill level, there is no way he was going to come off the bench. Would that have pushed Stu to the role of sixth man? Personally, I think a backcourt of D-Mo and Trey flanked by THJr. would have been lethal. Morris could run pick and roll all day and Trey would destroy teams by focusing on being a shooter and driver off residual action.
Trey is a great point guard, but if he has been freed up to focus on scoring while Morris played qb for a year...man that offense could really have been something.
Then again, they still won the B1G tournament without D-Mo. Just an interesting thought experiment.
about the NBA is guys can declar, test the waters and if they don't what like they are hearing from scouts, they can come back to college as long as they haven't signed an agent.
There's interesting cases made on both sides of whether certain players should go or stay. A few things to keep in mind. You only get a guaranteed contract if you're a first round pick. You get drafted in the second round and do not make the team, you're scrambling hoping someone picks you up. This is supposed to be a really deep draft. I think Stauskas is gone. Mitch and GRIII I think declare and test the waters. Depending on what they hear from scouts will determine whether they come back or not.
Let's wait and see who's coming back before making these type of projections. Plus you're not taking into account potential injuries. UM has a lot of very good players, but so do a lot of other teams.
Let's enjoy what we have right know and spectulate on the future after March Madness and the NBA draft deadline.
1. Chatman is a stretch 4 who can play on the perimeter
2. Even if all 3 come back, Duke, Kansas and Arizona will have higher preseason rankings
3. Projecting 2 years out is kind of absurd
4. No matter who comes back, I'm willing to bet Caris will be our most talented player next year and I dount he stays for his senior year
5. Donnal seems like a center to me. Can't dribble, can't run PnR, can't shoot off the dribble, taller than Morgan. Perfect as the roll man or the pop man.
6. If all 3 leave, I still think UM can maintain a great team. I think their defense would be better with Irvin and LeVert instead of Stauskas. The only thing that would be a question mark is who becomes the ball screen guy? It was Morris, then it was Burke, then it was Nik. I'd bank on Walton or LeVert becoming the guys next year and yet again, UM will have a top 5 offensive efficiency.
Very well thought out blog ! I don't think it hurts too bad to see GR3 go; Irvin is comin up. He has to confidence to pretty much take over next year.
Illinois is all over Brunson....hope we can get him out of Illinois.
The solution is simple. Perform Inception on Stauskas, GRIII, and Mitch so that they all come back. Brian could do a Kickstarter to raise the necessary funds. The hardest part will be to get all three on a flight from Sydney to LAX but I think we can do it.