Michigan -6.5 vs. Utah

Submitted by turd ferguson on

... according to the lines that ESPN has posted so far (BETONLINE.ag, 5Dimes.eu, SportsBetting.ag).


Other Big Ten games:

Texas State +14.5/15 @ Illinois
Indiana +16.5 @ Missouri
Iowa +5/5.5 @ Pittsburgh
Maryland +1.5 @ Syracuse
EMU +45/45.5 @ MSU
Miami (FL) +7.5 @ Nebraska
UMass +28.5 @ Penn State
Bowling Green +21.5/22 @ Wisconsin


No line yet:

San Jose St. @ Minnesota
Western Illinois @ Northwestern
Southern Illinois @ Purdue
Rutgers @ Navy


Bye:

Ohio State
 

MayOhioEatTurds

September 14th, 2014 at 10:38 PM ^

I hope the oddsmakers are right. 

I'm not so sure they are.  Took a job out here at the U of Utah and have been watching Utah play live.  I'm hoping for the best, but the QB they got back from cranial artery/concussion injury last year runs very well.  Michigan hasn't dealt well with those sorts of QBs in recent years/games . . . .

I'm excited for this game, but having watched both teams this year, very apprehensive. 

M-Dog

September 14th, 2014 at 11:15 PM ^

The oddmakers are setting the line based on the sentiment of the betting public . . . how can they get the bets evenly on both sides?

There are still people who are dismissive of Utah, especially on the road, because it is not a "name" team.  

I doubt that they really feel that Michigan will win by a toughdown, but the line at 6.5 will get them more action on the Utah side.

 

LJ

September 14th, 2014 at 11:22 PM ^

I've always wondered this about sports betting.  If it's really the case that Vegas simply tries to equalize money, couldn't you reliably win at sports betting simply by betting on unpopular teams, which are presumably undderrated in the lines?  You would think that if this phenomenon shifts the line by even a single point a game from the "true" line, you'd have no problem cleaning up over a large sample by always betting against large schools.

There's gotta be more to it, right?

Gucci Mane

September 15th, 2014 at 1:39 AM ^

If you consistently bet on undervalued teams then yes you would make money. The problem is that isn't always easy to identify. A large school does not make it inherently overvalued. Many times it's the opposite, because the extra exposure makes people overreact to soemthing bad that team did. In this case there is two ways to look at it. 1. Michigan is a name, and therefore is overvalued based on people associating Michigan with success. 2. Michigan is a name, and therefore is undervalued because a huge deal was made about losing 31-0 to ND. so you see, you can't just simply bet against name teams and make money.

Muttley

September 15th, 2014 at 8:39 AM ^

If there is easy money to made by the smart money, it will be made, thus gross mispricings should be corrected by the demand of the smart money.

But if that easy money has to overcome the vig, then that leaves room for some mispricing before it becomes profitable for the smart money to go against the "dumb masses".  But then again, the smart money will be shopping around for a minimal vig in addition to the dumbest line.

gbdub

September 15th, 2014 at 10:17 AM ^

The other issue is that the "smart money", i.e. pro gamblers, often play larger bets. So they can have a disproportionate impact on the odds even though many more bets are on the "dumb money".



Then there's weird stuff. I think it was last week in the NFL somebody put a $30,000 wager on the Dolphins, which instantly moved the line a point.

chadborman

September 15th, 2014 at 9:08 AM ^

There's no way this U-M team beats Utah.  The U-M secondary is a sieve, the front seven can't tackle and there's nothing resembling a rush, even when they blitz.  Utah will carve up Michigan's defense.  Michigan might score a few points, but every defense now knows that you just need to blitz Gardner to rattle him.  Gardner will toss up two or three interceptions and fumble once or twice and the running game will be held to under 50 yards.  With the exception of the Rich Rod era, this is perhaps the worst U-M team since the 1984 team that went 6-6.  Couple this with a loss to PSU, MSU, and OSU, and the best case scenario for this team is a 7-5 record. If the Big-10 weren't abysmal (see the 3-6 non-conf record this past weekend against a bunch of teams no better than FCS teams), I'd say it wasn't impossible for this team to go 6-6 or 5-7, but the MAC-like strength of their Big10 schedule will almost guarentee this team 7 wins.

MGoClimb

September 14th, 2014 at 10:40 PM ^

3 points for home field advantage, so about a field goal favorite on a neutral field. Wouldn't be surprised to see the line move closer to 0 as the game gets closer.

At first blush, -6.5 seems a bit high. Happy to be wrong, though.

carlos spicywiener

September 14th, 2014 at 10:43 PM ^

Still remember that very 1st RR game in which Threet and McGuffie dragged Michigan back in the second half. It was so strange seeing a new coach, QB, and RB all of a sudden on the sidelines. That game got pretty loud.

alum96

September 14th, 2014 at 10:47 PM ^

I think Wolverine Devotee had a good one and that is to take UMass and the points.  They lost to Boston College 30-7, a bad Colorado team 41-38 and a bad Vandy 34-31.  PSU has not had a game that was comfortable to play 2nd stringer so if they get up 28-7 or whatnot they might throw in some subs late.   PSU's defense seems good enough to hold UMass to 10ish, so I guess the question is will PSU put up 38+...with their OL perhaps not.  Also feels like  an emotional letdown game after their HUGE RIVALRY game (BTN!) v Rutgers.

Geez the rest of that slate is impossible to really tell.  Indiana could put up 35 and still lose by 20 on any given Sunday.  Miami (YTM) is not a good program right now but Nebraska almost lost to a FCS team at home 2 weeks ago.  Wisconsin has a safety as a QB.

Wouldn't touch our game with a 10 foot pole.  Two teams that are mysteries at this point.

Wolverine Devotee

September 14th, 2014 at 10:47 PM ^

Michigan's last win against a current Pac-12 team was against......

 

utah. September 21, 2002.

Julius Curry saved the day, picking off utah in the final minute to seal the 10-7 Michigan win.

Brady Hoke sighting below-

alum96

September 14th, 2014 at 11:00 PM ^

I knew it couldnt have been too far before that - we used to be ok v the Pac 12 if it didnt include the Rose Bowl.

Fun fact:

After the Wolverines failed to complete a pass on third-and-10 with 6 seconds left, Washington was penalized 15 yards for having 12 men on the field. Without the flag, Michigan would have attempted a 59-yard field goal.

alum96

September 14th, 2014 at 11:09 PM ^

We played virginia in 95 and NC State in 93 and Syracuse in 99 but Syracuse was still in the Big east.  I dont think we've played anyone else from that conference aside from VA Tech in a bowl since Florida State in 91?

So I'm sticking with virginia (nearly 20 years) as the last ACC opponent in the regular season unless WD has a better answer.

Wolverine Devotee

September 14th, 2014 at 11:08 PM ^

Against the current ACC, Michigan's last win over an ACC team--and last regular season game against an ACC team--was at Syracuse in 1999.

If you're talking about if they were ACC at the time Michigan played them, then yes, Virginia was the last win over a team who was in the ACC at the time. 

After that Virginia game in 1995, Michigan beat Boston College in 1995 and 1996, also. 

 

alum96

September 14th, 2014 at 11:12 PM ^

Yes BC was Big East too.  Strange - due to geography it seems like a natural fit to play ACC teams more often in OOC the past few decades.  Probably due to the watering down of schedules in BCS era.  With Notre Dame every year you fit in mostly baby seals elsewhere.

Wolverine Devotee

September 14th, 2014 at 11:17 PM ^

Michigan played Maryland several times, most recently in 1990. So that would be Michigan's last win over an ACC team who was in the ACC at the time. 

Michigan played North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia and Maryland in the regular season from the 1960s-1990s. 

Michigan's only losses against true ACC teams are against UNC in 1966 and the 1979 Gator Bowl.

Other than that, Michigan's 7 other losses against ACC teams are against teams who weren't actually in the ACC at the time they played but are now. (Syracuse, Miami and Florida State).

Michigan has a 29-9-1 record against the ACC.

alum96

September 14th, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^

Synopsis: MOAR ACC scheduling*

*except FSU/Clemson

I think UM even in current form could win the ACC Coastal.  Us or Duke!  ACC Coastal and Big Ten West might be the 2 worst divisions in the Big 5.  We and Northwestern would also fit very well in this ACC division from an academic standpoint - some really strong schools there.

Might have to erase this post before Jim Delaney sees it; he might just ask the whole division to secede to the Big 10.

ACC - Coastal W-L PF PA W-L PF PA STRK
Pittsburgh 1-0 30 20 3-0 134 45 W3
Virginia 1-0 23 21 2-1 88 62 W2
Georgia Tech 0-0 0 0 3-0 118 78 W3
Duke 0-0 0 0 3-0 127 33 W3
North Carolina 0-0 0 0 2-0 87 56 W2
Virginia Tech 0-0 0 0 2-1 90 58 L1
Miami (FL) 0-1 13 31 2-1 95 58 W2

 

Wolverine Devotee

September 14th, 2014 at 11:04 PM ^

Michigan's record against the current Pac-12 members is 48-24-1.

Here is every game against the current Pac-12 since 1984.

9/15/1984 vs #16 Washington L 11-20  
9/20/1986 vs Oregon State W 31-12  
1/1/1987 #7 Arizona State L 15-22 Rose Bowl
9/19/1987 vs Washington State W 44-18  
1/2/1989 #5 USC W 22-14 Rose Bowl
9/23/1989 at #24 UCLA W 24-23  
1/1/1990 #12 USC L 10-17 Rose Bowl
9/22/1990 vs UCLA W 38-15  
1/1/1992 #2 Washington L 14-34 Rose Bowl
1/1/1993 #9 Washington W 38-31 Rose Bowl
9/4/1993 vs Washington State W 41-14  
9/24/1994 vs #7 Colorado L 26-27  
9/14/1996 at #5 Colorado W 20-13  
9/28/1996 vs UCLA W 38-9  
9/13/1997 vs #8 Colorado W 27-3  
1/1/1998 #8 Washington State W 21-16 Rose Bowl
9/16/2000 at #14 UCLA L 20-23  
9/8/2001 at #15 Washington L 18-23  
8/31/2002 vs #11 Washington W 31-29  
9/21/2002 vs Utah W 10-7  
9/20/2003 at #22 Oregon L 27-31  
1/1/2004 #1 USC L 14-28 Rose Bowl
1/1/2007 #8 USC L 18-32 Rose Bowl
9/8/2007 vs Oregon L 7-39  
8/30/2008 vs Utah L 23-25