Michigan 22-23 basketball lineup projection
Now that the nba draft dust has settled and we have acquired our final two pieces I thought it would be a good time from this discussion. Obviously, little is known about the Soph leap for several, Reed’s post surgery ability and Khayat’s transition to college basketball, but still fun to speculate and then look back as the season progresses.
Starters: Dickinson, T Will, Jett, Kobe, Llewellyn
Rotation: Reed, Khayat, Barnes, Baker, Dug
Bench minutes: Jace, Tschetter, Glenn
I put the starters positionally but I didn’t the reserves because the rotation won’t be a player for player change. The unknowns are what can Barnes bring this year from a ball handling and shooting perspective, what does Bufkin bring as the starting 2 or is there a need for Jett to move there and move another into the starting lineup, how does Baker bounce back and is someone else a better option than him like Barnes or Tschetter and is Dug ready to get 5-8 minutes a game to spell Llewellyn? I didn’t get into minutes but that will be interesting as well. I think this roster is built less on speed and individual athleticism as it is team defense, ball handling/movement and shooting. Thoughts?
*Meant Baker’s post injury bounce back, not Reed*
Outside of Dickinson, how do they generate shots? From the film I've seen on Llewellyn he is more of an off-ball player than an on-ball creator.
Pinning a lot of creation on true freshman Jett seems like a recipe for disaster (remember early season Caleb Houstan when Michigan played anyone with a decent defense?)
Can Kobe make a huge leap? Does someone else surprise us?
I agree with you that they probably get by as a grind-it-out team defense and just riding Hunter on offense. That might be enough to be a decent team and make the tournament, but the lack of shot creation likely holds them back from being a top 25 type team. I don't think they'll be very enjoyable to watch aesthetically, but they will probably be really fun from a grit standpoint. The wins will feel earned.
I think the generating shots will come from two key areas, feeding the post to Hunter while letting him either create a shot or kick it out to a shooter and the second is the screen game for rolls and pick and pop shots. This will be a team based on spacing the floor and ball movement which can create those drives to the basket. I’m like you, I don’t see one on one creation to the basket but more of a trickle down effect of having good inside play and shooters. I still think they are a top 15 team and sweet 16 team because of the inside/out ability.
I agree with you that they probably get by as a grind-it-out team defense and just riding Hunter on offense. That might be enough to be a decent team and make the tournament, but the lack of shot creation likely holds them back from being a top 25 type team. I don't think they'll be very enjoyable to watch aesthetically, but they will probably be really fun from a grit standpoint. The wins will feel earned.
Wow, a decent team?! Juwan hasn't gotten to 20 regular season wins in 2/3 seasons coaching, and in those seasons he's a combined 21-19 in conference play. If this is another 11-9 BIG campaign, and a 18-14 overall regular season, then I proffer that Coach Howard is establishing a pattern, and his seat would start to warm. Still being a very inexperienced college head coach, Coach Howard has had an issue with both roster, and game, management. I'm afraid that another team of guys who have played very little college basketball is not a recipe for success. If this season plays out as you think it will (barely making the tournament), there will be serious questions that need to be asked about the program.
Man that qualifier of 20 regular season wins is doing a lot of lifting in your criticism given that he won 19 regular season games In his first season (in which Livers was injured for long stretches) and then won 19 regular season games in his second season (in which COVID reduced the number of regular season games played). Weird tack to take…
Well, Coach Howard took over a program which had won 20+ regular season games in 7/8 seasons prior to that. 20 wins should be a minimum for a program like Michigan, and it is usually an indicator of being a tournament team. Caris Levert, inarguably 2016's best player, was hurt for more than half the season (15 games played), and that team still won 20 games.
I just don't understand how many don't see a cause for concern after the regular season and BIG Tourney debacle of last year. Some serious coaching flaws were exposed. I just don't think we can count on making the tourney at 17-15, 19-13, etc... year after year.
Again, Howard didn’t have an equal opportunity to win 20 regular season games in his 2nd year because of COVID (and he still won 19 games).
Howard was very close to winning 20 regular season games in his first year (again winning 19) and didn’t get there because arguably the best player on the team missed 10 games (1/3rd of the season).
2/3 seasons coached by Howard basically meet your arbitrary criteria of “20 regular season wins” but were one shy because of some pretty extenuating circumstances.
you’re basing some harsh criticism on one season where he still managed to get to the NCAA tournament and the sweet 16. Sounds like you’re just manufacturing nonsensical reasons to be upset about the basketball team even though it’s still maintained a successful run under Howard.
dude no one is saying howard is a better coach than Beilein. You seem to be threatened, on behalf of a man you don’t know, by the continued success under a different coach. Sounds like a you problem.
Thanks for nailing the reality in this regard. Juwan came in and took over for Beilein's pathological mid-life crisis...one that left the roster in a severe lurch for his successor to take the lumps. And Juwan and his staff won very well-deserved national awards for their efforts that first year. The roster repercussions carried over to last year-and even this year and next year. The revisionist history that takes place in this regard is stunning.
But 20 is divisible by 10! Do you not acknowledge the importance of the base 10 system!
Username checks out.
We love Howard, but man, say anything critical of him and people go crazy.
You mean you can’t talk about how shitty JB’s recruiting was before he left.
there will be serious questions that need to be asked about the program.
No, there won't.
Honestly don’t need many guys beyond Hunter to create offense. Just him being on the floor and getting post entry pass can collapse the defense
Let’s not say that now…lol. Defenses can easily take a post player out of the game. So it will be VERY critical that they find another player to generate some offense. Quickest way for your offense to get bogged down is relying on one player to do it all. Plus it will wear Hunter down if he has to do it all season.
I’m personally bullish on TWill as a creator. He didn’t get much of a chance to show it off but the guy definitely has some signs of being a shot maker.
This is the post i signed in to check for. Now that we have Khayat on the team this feels like a high upside team that might have some developmental projects, but some really quality pieces. I am probably more excited about this year than I have been since the Livers-less postseason (sadly i was excited and we didn't quite get to see that team fully actualized). We don't have a ton of 5 stars demanding minutes, and it feels like the team could be a nice group of misfits.
Big caveat, I love every season of basketball. So this reply doesn't mean I'm a level headed analyst, just that this team has now shaped up nicely. It is likely to have amazing coaching, decent shooting (finally), an all American caliber big, and an assembly of good length / quickness that should be exciting to watch. I do wonder about the defense, however...
I kind of see the opposite with the defense, at least as the year wears on. I think we have the length to be a good defensive team. When Michigan was good defensively, we had gumby arms Franz, Chaundee and also Livers on the wings. We have that potential with Khayat, Barnes, Jett and Kobe depending on how they improve and learn the system. I think a person like Khayat that knows how to move and cut will help Hunter out tremendously with the attempted doubles.
This board belly-laughed at Iowa a couple years ago for having an offensive big who could not play a lick of defense. Now our big is worse both offensively and defensively and folks will hear none of it-but it remains a harsh reality. Hunter is big...he is slow in every way-he cannot guard anyone...this is not an exaggeration. The college opposition has figured this out and there is little that can be done to mitigate the matter. That is this team's #1 issue/fault and this is why Hunter cannot/will not play in the NBA.
Loving your optimism here, Jordan.
Dug is going to need 5-8 minutes to spell Llewellyn. I know I do.
What you did there, I see it.
Well he took the easy way out on spelling Dug.
Don’t sleep on Tschetter. He can Tshoot.
I think he has a chance, a lot depends on Barnes and Baker with him. If they don’t show the ability then I can see him getting some minutes and he might anyway.
I need a "Just a Tshooter" shirt.
He's not just a Tschetter.
But can he tshoot on the move or does he need to be tschet like Caleb Houston?
You tsure?
Everyone here is terrible at tschpelling....
This team should be a better shooting team than last year regardless of the lineup. We lost several bad outside shooters (Diabetes, Houston, Jones, Collins, Jones, Nunez) and gained a number of kids who can shoot. This should free up Dickinson or allow him to kick to open scorers.
Brooks is a huge loss though.
Diabetes, if left untreated, can affect shooting.
You misspelled...
DIDIABEATUS. That what I was saying towards the end of the 2016 football season.
Damn we lost Jones twice?
Good list and there will probably be a lot of growing pains especially early. I'd be happy with another Sweet 16 year out of this group. Wild card is how Kobe has developed and can't wait to see Jett!
Like your optimism but I have big concerns about the youth and number of new players needing to meld as a team.
Khayat helps and of course I am hopeful, but this team will have a number of players that will have to play heavy minutes while getting used to playing together. Also, I still think that outside of Hunter, this team will struggle to score.
I have faith in the coaches, but the ride will be bumpy for a bit. As long as they aim for February/March, it'll be all right.
Llewellyn and Kobe at guard seem like the make or break spot. Without guards who can create for themselves and others I don't see a path to a good team.
I think the team will resemble the Livers Michigan teams more since it seems like shooting and spacing will be better. Defensively, I don't think they'll be much better if at all compared to last year. I'm very happy with the addition of Khayat, but I don't thing he changes the outlook of the team much next year. I do think between him, Baker they can match Houstan's production.
I think the lack of guards will be a problem, if Llewellyn and Kobe aren't really productive, it'll really hurt the team. We seem love getting 3/4 guys, but have big time issues with 2s. I'm not expecting much from Dug, I just hope he's playable.
Having Reed be able to give Dickinson a break will be good though, he won't get as worn down especially since his usage will probably be even higher than before.
PG Tim
SG Gus
SF Jalen
PF Oak Tree
C Tal Gui
I would not rule out Jace seeing minutes. Dude makes an impact when he’s in the game. He’s a solid defender and an effort guy on offense. He makes the right plays.
This roster is not loaded with talent.
Don't know why people say this.
We have an All-American center. The 4 other starters will be 4-5 star players including a McDonald's All American. Our transfer shooter from Duke was the 33rd overall prospect coming our of high school. The bench is full of 3-4 star players.
This team has plenty of talent.
Juwan is not Izzo....he likes to play a 8.5 man rotation. 8 people will contribute 10+ minutes regularly and the 9th guy will see erratic but meaningful minutes. Everyone else is blowouts only.
To me, we know the 8. Your starters plus Dug (only backup guard), Reed (center minutes when Hunter needs a rest), and Baker (proven shooter who didn't transfer to sit the bench).
All of the other forwards are fighting for that 9th spot. I think Yousef has the lead, but don't count out Tschetter as a shooting big.
This is right, but early in the year various out of the rotation players may get a game in the rotation. Also an injury can move everyone else up a slot. So we're likely to see Barnes and Tschetter both at some point, and one or both may play his way into the lineup.
Is it a foregone conclusion that incoming freshman Jett will be starting over a guy like Baker or Khayat ? I say no chance... hes a true freshman. Baker is a four year player and captain.
Baker didn't play much at Duke. He was brought in as a glue guy (teamwork, spot duty, help as needed).
He is a four year guy playing with several first round picks.... Jett is just off high school.... Baker will be starting and Jett maybe in rotation.