Maybe OT (or a Diary?): 5* QBs Transferring

Not really surprising in my mind. Being a 5* QB means you have the tools to make it to the NFL. If you get put on the depth chart behind another potential NFL QB, why wouldn't you transfer to somewhere else you get the chance to play?

Maybe you're a 3rd rd QB talent and get put behind a 1st rd QB talent. Should you settle with being a backup for the rest of your career and not end up being drafted? Or should you transfer to another place you can play and show you're a 3rd rd QB talent?

True but typically they transfer because they are better then sitting on the bench. This reinforces the fact that you need to keep recruiting top level talent. You failed to mention the competition for these qbs. It’s not like they lost their jobs to walk-ons. With that said I think the whole transfer thing is good because it gives smaller schools a chance at a player they would never dream of getting. South Florida might end up going undefeated with Barnett who is putting up great numbers for them. I feel like this rule will only apply to qbs so it won’t be too big an impact on the sport

very cool

Come on.  You're not using the proper parlance of our time.  It's "cis school" and "trans school"

Too soon?

This might be more of an indication that a five star recruit will transfer if they're not getting playing time. Five star recruits know they're good. They know they could (and probably should) be playing somewhere. So it's not a surprise that they transfer sometimes.

Why would quarterbacks be more effected, though? It's harder to get a backup quarterback meaningful snaps than it is most other positions (offensive line being the obvious exception).

For instance, you can rotate in a freshman at running back, wide receiver, tight end and pretty much anywhere on the defense without causing any problems beyond those cause by lack of experience. Platooning quarterbacks, on the other hand, is done much more rarely. So the only time a five star backup is going to see the field is most likely during blowout wins. 

(I am assuming that quarterbacks are more likely to transfer; I suspect that's the case, but OP only has numbers for quarterbacks.)

Barnett actually transferred twice, he's the starter at USF now. Same with Sims who transferred to Winston Salem St. after Virginia.

I was just looking for a similar chart to prove a point about how crazy transfers are getting, specially with the QB position. I can’t blame the players but it is very interesting. I looked back 5 years and just in that small sample a lot of top 50 4* types are also high transfer rates. Thanks for the chart 

Wasn't Shane Morris also a 5* by at least one service?  Or maybe he dropped after getting sick.  Anyway, that's another one who transferred.

I'm not one to begrudge or besmirch an individual for attempting to better their situation, but doesn't this speak more loudly to the generation of "instant results?"

If you are a 5*, and consider yourself better than other individuals at your position, wouldn't that motivate you to work harder and prove yourself?

Shea is the only one on that list that took a chance with an equal, or better, program. There is still something to be said about dedication and hard work.

Ryan Mallett says hi and Go Blue! 

Great research, but I think that your analysis that "getting a 5* QB gives you less than a 50-50 shot to keep that player" is wrong.

Virtually every one of the guys on this list who transferred were beaten out at their first school. I think Kyler Murray and Shea Patterson are the only guys on this list who were successful starters at their first school and still transferred. I think the conclusion from this research should be that 5* QBs only pan out about half the time, and if they don't, the players are still talented enough that they'll transfer to get another shot at playing time.

Would of lost that bar bet. Interesting 

so is it gonna be like CBB where you don't want a one-and-done player, but high-enough-potential/low-enough-to-stay talent player so you can mold them for a year and two?

also i think there should be a follow-up examination to how the transfer player did at the end. maybe the 5 star didn't live up to his potential or was miss-scouted.

What's the stat for 4*s?

Give me 5* linemen instead please.  I'd rather have 5* linemen than 5* QBs.

Shouldn't we take into consideration why they are transferring, and is getting beat out really saying anything bad?  If you are Alabama and the last 4 of the last 5 QB's you get are 5 star, getting beat out isn't really saying much. If you are good enough to start somewhere else, why would you sit 3 or 4 yrs behind a guy that might be a little bit better, or who is a little better fit because they changed their offensive play style because they have a new coordinator? Shea left because of sanctions. Georgia might have to deal with Justin Fields or Jake Fromm next year. Being a year apart creates issues. I don't think it's a big deal, especially with coaches willing to play freshman QB's. 

I think the proper conclusion to that list is the the Recruiting services are not very good at determining 5* quarterbacks. 

That list seems to make the point that projecting who will be an elite QB, college or pro, is about as difficult as it is for O Linemen.  I'm surprised to see that but the facts speak for themselves. 

If you're a 5 star QB who's probably been told all through high school that you're gonna be in the NFL, that you're gonna be the next Peyton Manning and so forth...the reality that you may simply not develop into such a player is a particularly difficult pill to swallow. Transferring for those guys basically represents hope.

It also is kind of a return of the recruiting vibe. We've seen players say over the years that once you go from being a recruit to being a player on the roster the attitude from everyone toward you changes - especially if you're not an important starter. Once your coaches have basically put you into the 'backup' drawer, it might feel a bit colder, the attention you get will decline dramatically. If you look to transfer..those other schools who covet your services will once again treat you like royalty.

Transfers often, maybe more often than not, don't work out for the kid. In other words, the problem wasn't 'getting stuck behind so and so' but simply that they struggle to even become a good college QB never mind a QB in the NFL. I'm sure in some cases it would have been more beneficial to work harder on what's holding them back rather than to go somewhere else, perhaps expecting that they'll get what they're entitled to there.