The Mattison Miracle - Some Numbers

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November 13th, 2011 at 12:48 AM
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WolverineBlue
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The Mattison Miracle - Some Numbers

There was considerable speculation during the offseason as to what level of improvement was possible for the 2011 defense under Mattison. Jumping 40 or 50 spots in the rankings was considered the maximum plausible expectation based on exhaustive statistical analyses.

I couldn't wait to see where things stood following today's effort, so I went into spreadsheet mode and came up with the following:

 

  2011 Ave 2011 Rank 2010 Ave 2010 Rank
Scoring Defense 16.1 7 35.2 108
Rushing Defense 130.9 41 188.9 95
Passing Defense 191.3 22 261.9 112
Total Defense 322.2 17 450.8 110

 

The numbers should be accurate although there are a couple of late games that could nudge the yardage rankings a smidge. These numbers would be even better if the NCAA had counted the WMU game.

I know, I know, there are still two (+) tough games remaining, and I don't want to jinx anything, but how many thought these results were possible through 10 (9 that count) games. Color me delighted with Marvelous Mattison.

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November 13th, 2011 at 12:51 AM | He is a stud (Score:2 Normal)
MaizeRage89
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November 13th, 2011 at 12:52 AM | Fuck chris spielman (Score:5 Normal)
MaizeRage89
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November 13th, 2011 at 12:53 AM | +1 (Score:2 Normal)
FreeTheFabFivePlz
Joined: 03/08/2011
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For Excel use.

November 13th, 2011 at 12:55 AM | Dude. (Score:1 Overrated)
Chunks the Hobo
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Dude.

Got a quarter?

November 13th, 2011 at 12:57 AM | Didn't Brian post some stuff (Score:2 Normal)
Lionsfan
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Didn't Brian post some stuff in the pre-season showing that data-averages said we would only be like 70's? I think everyone thought we would be 50-60ish

If you're doing nothing, how do you know when you're finished?

StraightDave owes me a steak dinner: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/ot-stefon-diggs-md#comment-1476908

November 13th, 2011 at 2:30 AM | Yeah he did (Score:1)
Znell
Joined: 03/16/2011
MGoPoints: 58

I can't seem to find it, but I remember this post. Basically it was telling everyone to stay realistic and see that when there are coaching changes, almost every team either got worse, or got just marginally better in the first year. If I recall correctly, even moving into the 70s seemed like a stretch based on that model.

November 13th, 2011 at 1:04 AM | Man think how good we will be in the future! (Score:2 Normal)
Son of Lloyd Brady
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Not saying our players on D are not good, because by the numbers they most definitely are not, but they were not recruited to play in his system the way he wants them to play. We can see what he is doing with the few freshman that Hoke secured for the last class (see Countess, Morgan, and Clark), but with a few classes and years for the players to fully learn the system, I am expecting great things.

"I said climb on up but honey watch the cup, where I’m spitin’ my dip inside. And hold on tight, 'cause its gonna be wilder than any 8 second ride."

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November 13th, 2011 at 1:48 AM | I don't like looking (Score:3 Normal)
ashea
Joined: 07/19/2011
MGoPoints: 39

I don't like looking too far ahead but I think it's going to be interesting to see how much miracle Mattison can put into rebuilding our line the next couple of years. 

November 13th, 2011 at 2:37 AM | Countess and Morgan committed (Score:3 Normal)
mgoO
Joined: 10/11/2010
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Countess and Morgan committed to Michigan when RR was still the coach.  Clark was a Hoke recruit.

November 13th, 2011 at 11:28 AM | My thoughts too (Score:2)
UM Fan in Nashville
Joined: 01/22/2011
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I can't wait to see the next few classes come in.   Not that we don't have talented guys, but we obviously did not recruit a ton of 4*+ guys on defense the past 3-4 years.   I'd love to see what this next group of defensemen could do with Mattison's coaching.   It's going to be fun to watch them in the next few years.    

Side note, what recruit wouldn't want to play for Mattison after seeing this kind of turnaround.    

November 13th, 2011 at 11:59 AM | Rich Rod recruited a ton of (Score:2 Normal)
sitdown248
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Rich Rod recruited a ton of defensive talent.  THe problem is he just never did anything with it.  I think you can see that there was at least SOME talent there from what Mattison has been able to do.  If the defensive players were that bad, that turnaround should have been basically impossible.

I expect the defense to improve, but let's not act as if Rich Rod didn't recruit. The defensive coaching just sucked

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November 13th, 2011 at 1:24 PM | I don't disagree at all, I (Score:3 Normal)
UM Fan in Nashville
Joined: 01/22/2011
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I don't disagree at all, I just don't think he really recruited as high of recruits as we are getting with Mattison and Hoke.   It's obvious there's some talent on this team, no doubt about it, I wouldn't go as far as saying "A Ton".  It just wasn't a high priority for RR.   Also you can still have a solid defense with lower rated recruits (see Wisconsin, Iowa, etc).   I'm just saying the next few years will be a lot of fun watching this D potentially grow to a top 10 or higher defense nationally.  

November 14th, 2011 at 12:06 PM | There is never going to be a very good way to compare... (Score:2 Normal)
Section 1
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the overall recruiting of the Rodriguez staff and the Hoke staff at Michigan.

Rodriguez was recruiting against PSU, OSU and MSU at the peak of their security and solidity; and at a time when Michigan was saddled with a bullshit NCAA investigation.  Not a fair comparison, now that OSU and PSU are reeling.

 

 

November 13th, 2011 at 1:04 AM | If we finish the season (Score:1)
BlueDragon
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If we finish the season ranked in the Top 50 in those statistical categories I will be very happy, very happy indeed.

Land of the free market

November 13th, 2011 at 1:06 AM | Sky is always the limit (Score:5 Normal)
robmorren2
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I had very high hopes. We have the players. We are chocked full of 3 & 4 stars. Teams like Iowa and MSU have respectable defenses with less talent. Add an NFL defensive coordinator and a defensive minded head coach, and you've got the formula for a good defense. This is Michigan.

November 13th, 2011 at 1:08 AM | *Correction (Score:2)
Chunks the Hobo
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The Mattison Muppets Miracle.

Got a quarter?

November 13th, 2011 at 1:39 AM | Much better (Score:1)
TIMMMAAY
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Marvelous is for Martavious. 

not just "douchey" MGoBlog user, but now TRUSTED MGoBlog user

November 13th, 2011 at 10:29 AM | **Another Alternate (Score:4 Normal)
kalamazoo
Joined: 08/20/2010
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The Mad Matti-gicians

November 13th, 2011 at 1:22 AM | Not even the most (Score:1)
BlueinLansing
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over the top homer Michigan fan could have expected this big a turnaround with this defense.

 

The eye test is the biggest thing for me.  They play fast, hit hard, swarm, tackle and don't let teams get behind them.

 

remarkable improvement

November 13th, 2011 at 1:29 AM | Somebody ought to pull some (Score:5 Normal)
FrankMurphy
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Somebody ought to pull some season-to-season defensive improvement numbers. This could be shaping up to be the biggest defensive turnaround in history.

November 13th, 2011 at 12:51 PM | you're probably right (Score:1)
umchicago
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2980

a jump like this is crazy.  i could see a team freefall due to losing a lot of starting seniors, but to jump over 90-100 spots is improbable.

November 13th, 2011 at 1:29 AM | I am thrilled and amazed at the turnaround (Score:5 Normal)
AMazinBlue
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how can it possibly happen, we were all told that Lombardi himself couldn't fix this defense.  So does that mean: Mattison/Hoke>Lombardi?

Can you imagine the speeches in the lockerroom before the Ohio game, those kids will sky high by Nov. 26.

What the mind can conceive and believe, the mind can achieve and...Those Who Stay WILL Be Champions.

November 13th, 2011 at 1:30 AM | Hey, guys, I don't know if you've heard but (Score:2 Normal)
hart20
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Mattison is a defensive god.

"If you want a happy ending, that depends, of course, on where you stop your story."

November 13th, 2011 at 1:41 AM | I remember someone (Score:2 Normal)
turtleboy
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posting a thread about the biggest statistical jumps in one season in recent NCAA Div 1 history, and I seem to remember the biggest jump being somewhat smaller than 108th to 17th. Maybe my memory is as drunk as I am right now, though.

1) Because I love @erikmagnuson77 he's my boo and 2) I hate Ohio State

November 13th, 2011 at 1:43 AM | i think this turn around is (Score:3 Normal)
Carl Winslow
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a combination of the greatness of Mattison, and the ineffectiveness of gerg.

"Go home, Steve!

 

November 13th, 2011 at 1:59 AM | Interestingly.. GERG had more (Score:2 Normal)
Jinxed1
Joined: 11/08/2011
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Interestingly.. GERG had more success during his tenure as an NFL DC (two super bowls with the Broncos) than Greg Mattison did. How? I really don't know. I guess he was good in the past and the game just passed him by. 

November 13th, 2011 at 12:03 PM | Yeah and I'm sure having John (Score:1)
sitdown248
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Yeah and I'm sure having John Elway on those Bronco teams didn't help either...

I don't think he's THAT bad of a coordinator if he's allowed to run HIS system, but in hindsight, a lot of his achievements don't look that great.  It appears as if he had a LOT of help from the offensive side of the ball

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November 13th, 2011 at 2:27 PM | Both those teams had top ten defenses (Score:2 Normal)
befuggled
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Per pro-football-reference.com, they were 6th and 8th in the league in points given up and slightly worse in terms of yardage. Although you're right that the offense certainly didn't hurt (and you didn't even mention Terrell Davis).

I think with a little less interference (his own scheme and assistants), he'd have merely been mediocre to bad instead of all-time bad.

 

Where's Charlie Bauman when you need him?

November 13th, 2011 at 3:00 PM | Those Broncos defenses were (Score:1)
FrankMurphy
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Those Broncos defenses were loaded with talent (Romanowski, Crockett, Atwater, etc). GERG got a lot of undeserved credit for their success. He was also DC of the Jets and the Chiefs, and his defenses on those teams were mediocre. 

November 13th, 2011 at 1:46 AM | Almost the entire defense (Score:2 Normal)
Farnn
Joined: 07/07/2008
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Almost the entire defense being one year older helps too. 

November 13th, 2011 at 9:09 AM | Exactly..... (Score:1 Normal)
Bosch
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While there is no doubt that Mattison is a better DC than Gerg, I would argue that the single biggest reason for the jump is that the true freshmen, RS freshmen, and former walkons that were key contributors last year are now another year older.

All right Lemmings. Bring the heat.

November 13th, 2011 at 11:41 AM | You can argue.. (Score:4 Normal)
UM Fan in Nashville
Joined: 01/22/2011
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But, I don't think that's the biggest reason.   The D didn't improve at all under GERG.   So, I think it's fairly obvious the single biggest reason is coaching.   The previous defensive staff did a really nice job with a few people (Kovacs, Martin) but overall it was a trainwreck.  This new staff just polished the players and they have a much better scheme.  

November 13th, 2011 at 11:50 AM | Last year we had Craig Roh (Score:5 Normal)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 26839

Last year we had Craig Roh playing linebacker, Carvin Johnson and Thomas Gordon playing linebacker, and Cam Gordon playing free safety.  They were not even remotely suited for those positions.  We also had Jonas Mouton, a 5th-year senior and 3-year starter, continually missing his keys and overrunning the play.  We had Obi Ezeh, another 5th-year senior and 3-year starter at our playmaking MIKE spot, continually misread plays.  This was coaching.  Why people insist on making excuses for last year's defensive braintrust (and I use that term very loosely) is beyond me.

 

November 13th, 2011 at 12:45 PM | Dude (Score:4 Normal)
MichFan1997
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Michigan has 2 walk-ons (or former walk-ons in Kovacs case), and 3 freshman starting still. That's 5 of 11 defensive starters. And they are STILL doing this well compared to last year.

Follow me on Twitter @gfraley05

November 13th, 2011 at 3:03 PM | That's the part that scares me the most, (Score:2)
BlueDragon
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the fact that Michigan is still starting true freshman, and probably will have to next year as well.

Land of the free market

November 13th, 2011 at 4:22 PM | Where are we going to start (Score:2)
jmblue
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Where are we going to start true freshmen next season?  At DT?  Every other position would seem to have veterans ready to go.  Even at DT, I feel like some combination of Campbell/Washington/Ash is going to turn out to be okay.

November 13th, 2011 at 4:35 PM | LBs are a possibility (Score:1)
BlueDragon
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Remember how much trouble we've had with contain earlier in the season?

Land of the free market

November 14th, 2011 at 12:51 PM | I'd be surprised if a frosh (Score:2)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
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I'd be surprised if a frosh beat out any of Demens/Ryan/Morgan.  If one can, he'll have to be pretty good.

November 13th, 2011 at 2:59 PM | It's not unusual... (Score:3 Normal)
Yeoman
Joined: 06/08/2011
MGoPoints: 1097

...for players to get one year older from one season to the next.

Having nine starters back is nice but it isn't exactly unprecedented either. Purdue and Minnesota also have nine back this year. Penn State has 8.

As an explanation for the biggest improvement in recent FBS history, this seems lacking.

November 13th, 2011 at 1:56 AM | Pincherbug is speechless.  (Score:5 Normal)
NoMoPincherBug
Joined: 04/08/2011
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Pincherbug is speechless.  Playing a bunch of freshmen too.  So much for that old excuse...its coaching really.... love the G Mattison and staff...

This defense plays with great effort, swarms to the ball, takes proper angles, and tackles very well overall.  We are still a bit undersized and a tad slow on the edges but coming around...fundamentally they are much improved and are getting better as the season goes along... gone are the misalignments and blown assigments that we saw vs. ND for the most part the defense is playing very sound football.  Im particularly impressed with the improvement in the DBs both in coverage but also in tackling.

no easy way to be free

November 13th, 2011 at 9:32 AM | As for "the old excuse:"  If (Score:0 Overrated)
November 13th, 2011 at 12:08 PM | For the most part, it is the (Score:1)
sitdown248
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For the most part, it is the same players.  There's what, 3 freshman getting significant tme or starting on defense?  All the rest were under the past system.  Plus, don't forget Rich Rod actually recruited some of those freshman who are playing.

I think there's no doubt that the vast majority of the improved play has been coaching. I will agree that with the amount of people returning you have to add in some improved talent and experience, but when your new d-coord moves multiple people immediately and they start having good success and the defense massively improves, it's pretty obvious its coaching

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November 13th, 2011 at 12:26 PM | It's much different than just (Score:1 Normal)
cbuswolverine
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It's much different than just "three freshmen and the rest is the same from last season."  JT and TWoolf not walking around on crutches and Mike Martin with two good ankles helps, too.  

November 13th, 2011 at 2:03 PM | Floyd and Martin were healthy (Score:4 Normal)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 26839

Floyd and Martin were healthy in the first half of last season - when we surrendered 37 points to a 6-5 FCS team (UMass) and 35 points (and something like 560 yards) to a 4-8 Indiana team.  As for Woolfolk, he certainly hasn't been healthy this season; he's been hobbled since week 1 and opponents have targeted him in the passing game whenever he's played. 

Why people continue to try to rationalize the performance of the defensive staff last year is beyond me.  It was by every measure the worst defense in school history.

 

November 13th, 2011 at 1:11 PM | wait a sec (Score:2 Normal)
umchicago
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2980

what frosh players from last year lost their jobs and/or have not improved?  i can think of only two guys - cam gordon and carvin johnson.  i believe both those guys came out of the gate this year injured and cam's position no longer exists (3-3-5 last year).  so both these guys were competing against kovaks and the other gordon (and now woolfolk).  i'm not surprised they lost PT.  i don't think you can conclude that gordon and johnson didn't improve.  they just got lost in the #s game.

vinopal transferred.  and avery was replaced by countess.  but avery's play has improved when he's been in there.  he made a few big plays in limited PT yesterday.

who else is there? jabreel black competes now against roh. 

it's obvious that almost every players performance has improved (except maybe woolfolk) with this coaching staff.

November 13th, 2011 at 2:03 AM | Once again  -1000000000000000 (Score:5 Normal)
ken725
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Once again  -1000000000000000 to Tony Gibson

Greetings from Bolivia.

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November 13th, 2011 at 2:22 AM | Mattison 2012!!! (Score:2)
srzeppa27
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Mattison 2012!!!

No man is more important than The Team. No coach is more important than The Team. The Team, The Team, The Team....

November 13th, 2011 at 2:23 AM | Not a lot of penalties this (Score:1)
U Fer M
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Not a lot of penalties this game either, and don't recall any on defense, very disciplined.

"Prejudiced? Partial? You better b'leeve I am. Michigan football is a religion and Saturday's the holy day of obligation." Bob Ufer

November 13th, 2011 at 2:33 AM | Floyd got called for one (Score:3 Normal)
Znell
Joined: 03/16/2011
MGoPoints: 58

He got called on one of his jumps midway through the 3rd on the first TD drive. Pretty much the only blemish on his otherwise phenomenal day.

November 13th, 2011 at 2:40 AM | MM (Score:3 Normal)
BlueDragon
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was called offside.

/that guy

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