Matchup Thoughts Vs. Alabama
1. Our WRs v their CBs - Funny thing about this is there is no expectation that we'll have any success here. Rational Michigan fans understand that we don't have the horses on the outside this year, conversely Alabama's secondary is fantastic. I actually think this is a good thing for Michigan. I'd much rather have their best defensive unit matched up against our weakest. It's like wasting an Ace against a 2 in a card game of War. But also, if we do get some early success from this unit it could demoralize them a bit.
2. Our TEs v their LBs/safeties? - Obviously this should be a big advantage for Michigan. MGoBlog crew thinks their LBs run in the wrong direction often, and/or just aren't very good. Not much more to say here.
3. Our OL v their DL - Zinter's injury could end up being the difference. But I feel like G Barnhart/T Jones might not be all that much of a step down compared to G Zinter/T Barnhart. While their DEs are expert, their DL is supposed to be, not. We SHOULD be able to run between the tackles a bit, and that to me will be the most important aspect of this side of the ball for me. I'll take 4/5 yards to grind and possess all game.
4. Minter v Milroe - Not sure why I am putting this at #4 because this is the most important key to the game for me. Sure, Milroe has improved and has cut down on mistakes since Texas. But I still think Minter can show this young QB coverage looks that he hasn't seen (see MHJ's post Michigan game comments) as well as pressure/stunts to add enough pressure to force him into inaccurate throws and/or costly mistakes.
5. Our DL/DEs v their OL - They had 2 5* freshmen LTs until recently. Proctor won the job and the other guy is now off the team. While Proctor is obviously talented enough to start as a freshman at LT for Alabama, he's still just a freshman. And the rest of their line isn't supposed to be fantastic. Meanwhile our DEs & DLs are very good and very deep. Just feels like they'll strengthen throughout the game and Minter will dial up some stunts (which have been killer) and just enough blitzes to make this a great matchup for Michigan.
6. Our spies/LBs v Milroe's legs - This will clearly be an important matchup as well. Milroe doesn't want to run, he wants to be a pocket passer. UGA at times had 2 spies standing in no man's land. Hindsight is 20/20, but what a mistake that was. I can't imagine Minter deciding to do that. Better to use those guys either in coverage or to pressure the pocket. Barrett/Colson are about as good as we've had in the last few years to combat Milroe's scrambles.
Lastly, I'm very intrigued by how much JJ will run and if our staff can finally figure out how to get Edwards in space.
What are your thoughts or other matchups that you think will be key?
December 29th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
As with all thoughts or predictions related to Michigan opponents, I’ll need to read the MGoBlog preview 76 times before making an educated guess.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
My take is that the defense is going to have to play a near perfect game because I really have a hard time seeing the offense doing a lot. Bama will be able to commit extra resources to stop the run and even if you can find some traction there, winning with long 15 play drives is not really a recipe for success when you get to this level of competition. I'm sure Michigan will have some wrinkles but Moore vs. Saban seems like a bigger mismatch than Minter vs Rees. Michigan can win but I think if we do it is gonna look like an Iowa game.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
Great point. One thing about these types of matchups for me is controlling the game/scoreboard. In other words last year's TCU game was 14-0 early, which forced us to have to step out of our comfort zone and open things up. If we can get into the 2nd Q with a 7-3 type score, that plays into our hands. If it's 14-10, we're probably in trouble as we're not built to put up 45 on Alabama like we did against TCU.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
I would love to see at least one Donovan run to pass with Loveland leaking out deep covered by one of their LBs. Roman takes the safety help to the other side. Feels like a recipe for a big play.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
Saban has seen our halfback pass and my guess is that they'll be ready for it. Not too say it can't work but... You have to have new wrinkles. Would love some screens to Donovan... Something we rarely do, which are pseudo run plays that slow their pass rushers.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
Agree with all your points. Our pass offense turtling up the last 4 games of the year is very concerning. Yes I know we finally played good defenses but Roman Wilson has disappeared from the equation, and JJ was straight up bad against Maryland (and at times against Iowa). I really hope Michigan has been implementing a new offense the past few weeks like they did in Lloyd’s last game.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
My concern is not with JJ, I think the Maryland game was an outlier after an injury that made him almost miss the game. My concern is that the WRs just are not good enough. Not to be too negative but in evaluating them Roman Wilson is just fast and Johnson just doesn't play like someone with his physical ability should. I think if they get past Bama both Texas and Washington present better matchups in part because Bama has their best players at the highest leverage positions (DE/CB)
December 29th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
My concern is--as others have hinted--JJ was not passing down the stretch because of our O line. If they're not willing to run him then we're in that same boat against some monster edge rushers, it could be a long day (which doesn't mean I don't think we can win this). I think that we'll get some indication quickly. Just hope the refs will also play their part, and not let 'Bama take extra cracks at JJ.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:26 PM ^
I mean calling, what, 4 year starters underachieving and one dimensional before biggest game of year … yeah a bit negative. These guys are being slept on big time especially Roman. Both have a ton of experience in big games and making big plays.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^
While I don't disagree with your assessment on the WR group I think you may be over looking our TE group against their LB's. I think they need to have a huge day and we need JJ to run the ball a lot more than he has recently. If JJ can roll out away from their elite DE pressure and hit TE's or take off it could be the key to this game. If they can do that and have some success running the ball then the D may not need to be lights out.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^
Wait, long drives "aren't" the way to win these games? I would argue just the opposite. At this level teams don't make big play mistakes and you have to drive the field.
Also, all this doom and gloom about our offense is ridiculous. This team wins and can beat Alabama. This offense scored on 6 straight possessions against (at the time the #1 rated defense in the nation without JJ running due to injury). This isn't a vintage Bama/Saban team. This Bama team was beaten by Auburn 2 games in the rearview mirror. Is it a given, of course not. If I had to bet my house, I'd probably bet on Bama simply as historical logic. But UM can win this game and has a good chance to do it.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^
Completely agree with your assessment Bush. It almost seems like the closer the game gets, the more doom and gloom our fan base gets. It all seems to stem around Milroe too as if we already have no answer for him. Bama beat Georgia which is the most recent game we have to use for Milroe. He also seem to get his yards, but was far from dominant against a very mediocre Auburn team. I do think one factor that not a lot of people are talking about is the experience our veteran leader players have had by now making the playoffs the 3rd year in a row. Bama has a lot of young players that have not experienced this moment before. We have a very veteran team that many of them came back for this opportunity. I like our chances because of our leadership on our team that seems to know what they are up against. Go Blue!
December 29th, 2023 at 4:40 PM ^
Doom and gloom is perfectly natural. Our defensive stats are overinflated by playing weak competition. Maryland and OSU had functional offenses and scored 24 points each. I expect Alabama to put up that many as well. I do not expect our offense to score four touchdowns against Alabama, short of outstanding turnover luck.
Corum and Edwards are both off their peaks from last year, and we've yet to see the gameplan where Jim will let JJ have 30-35 pass attempts.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:55 PM ^
Drive charts from the playoff games of the last 2 years tend to say big plays are the way teams score in the playoffs. Yeah, there's some drives of 10 or more plays but there's more drives of less than 10 plays.
Scoring drives, Michigan vs Georgia 2021 semi-final. 7 plays 80 yds, 6-59, 11-49, 9-57, 7-64, 3-69, 6-59 (didn't char the last UM TD).
Scoring drives Bama vs Cincy, 2021 semi-final. 11-75, 13-60, 13-57, 8-94, 11-56, 9-70, 9-49.
Scoring drives, Bama vs Georgia, NC game, 14-56, 11-87, 5-47, 6-55, 9-34, 4-80, 10-72, 4-16, 4-75, 7-62.
Scoring drives, OSU vs Georgia, 2022 semi-final, 4-71, 8-75, 11-75, 3-30, 4-75, 6-70, 7-59, 12-62, 1-76, 11-45, 5-72.
Scoring drives, Michigan vs TCU, 2022 semi-final, 12-76, 8-51, 10-83, 5-26, 7-63, 3-45, 8-75, 3-69, 3-78, 3-75, 2-27, 3-79, 4-1, 9-56.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:30 PM ^
That's interesting, but seems relatively split between longer (more plays) drives and shorter drives. And I wouldn't say 10-plays is the marker for longer drivers. I'd say more like 7-8 if you're looking at FG drives as well. I would expect to have to drive the field against Alabama.
Looking at the TCU one is heartbreaking.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
Losing Zinter is huge. Bama seems easily confused on both sides of the ball. Michigan being one dimensional is going to really hurt. I don't trust Michigan offense will have a enough to win them this game. I think for Michigan to win the defense and special teams is going to have to win it. And recent history doesn't give me much confidence in this game. At all.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
Zinter out is huge. I was really hoping we'd see a UFR for the UM offense against Iowa to see the oline grades without Zinter. The offensive performance without Zinter against Iowa doesn't give me a lot of confidence heading into the playoffs.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
Alabama had made the playoffs many times and won many playoff games. Michigan has not. I want Michigan to win but this is an uphill battle.
Nick Saban is the goat because he knows how to win when it matters. Harbaugh has yet to make it over the championship hump, whether in the Superbowl or cfp.
Muppets when we beat Alabama.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Key points for Michigan:
- Utilize the opening scripted drives to take an early lead
- Control the pace by limiting big plays from Milroe
- Grind your way to a good enough success rate on the ground
You had a good point above about the game state. Michigan is really uncomfortable playing from behind or playing in a shootout. It'll be key to get to an early start. I'd watch for us to go for some chunk plays with the reverses, flea flickers, and QB run on our scripted drives.
My #3 above is the big one to me. Can Michigan run the ball to move the chains? I do not anticipate much contribution from our passing game in that regard- we will be able to hit the TEs/RBs a bit, but it's hard to make a living doing that. I think we will go heavy on gap schemes to get their LBs in the wrong spots.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
Making Milroe beat you with his arm is the key imo. If Milroe goes something like 24 for 37 and 280 yds, I'll tip my cap to him. But the last thing I want to see is Milroe racking up yards with his legs. He's going to get some yards with his legs but if Milroe's ripping off chunk plays with his legs, it's going to be a long game.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
The worst matchup is Alabama’s edge rushers vs Michigan’s tackles. If they can’t hold up a lot better than they did against PSU, they can’t win the game. One tiny upside of Zinter’s injury might be that Barnhart, who was absolutely horrible in that game, wont be matched up against them. But as unfavorable as that matchup might be, the play calling can’t be ruled by fear. They can’t shy away from the passing game because trying to live on a heavy diet of runs up the middle and short passes will only make it easier for Alabama’s athletes on defense to start running downhill. Bold and mistake free is the way to play this game.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
You're right, I purposely didn't want to type up anything about matchups I don't like :)
That said the PSU situation was a bit of a perfect storm. Harbaugh suspended before the game. Crowd loud AF. And their DEs were timing JJ's snaps perfectly. None of those things SHOULD happen Monday night.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
I’d also call Michigan’s schedule a bad matchup for this game. Most of the offenses they’ve played this year haven’t even been average and only OSU’s was very good, and they have the advantage of familiarity with OSU. I hope the last two years have taught them the CFP is a different animal. Georgia rolled up 521 yards in 2021 and TCU had 488 last year. I don’t think the schedule helped them in those years, either. They have to be ready for the major upgrade in speed and talent they’ll be facing.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
Agree. It's one of the reasons I like USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington coming to the Big Ten. It's going to diversify the types of offenses that UM sees during the regular season.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:39 PM ^
We better have a plan to score 30 points on offense against Alabama or don't even bother showing up.
We can't punt and play defense against Alabama the way we could with Iowa, PSU in the second half, and OSU in the 4th quarter. That only worked because those offenses were not a threat to score at that point.
Punts are death.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
100% agree on this. If our OL cant give JJ adequate time to either pass or scramble, then we are likely cooked by halftime. BUT, if we can somehow slow the speedrush, then I think we have a legit chance. But we need to get our playmakers involved, and keep them involved all game
December 29th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
Keep Alabama defense on the field as much as possible. Michigan can't get in a shooting match with them, especially with our passing game lately. I think the defense will hold its own, but if our Oline doesn't control their dline its going to be a long game.
They're going to have to win this game by wearing them down and getting first downs.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
We need to score 30 and we win. Will need to get heavy RB and TE involvement in the passing game and hit the intermediate throws. Edwards will finally be used in the passing game as a weapon vs a decoy. Will need pressure on Milroe and contain their running backs.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
Games already over, Alabama won and Milroe is the greatest QB to ever live. Just ask the sports media.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
With their two Edge guys and the WR/DB matchup I think any slow developing routes are asking for disaster. The best bet is to try and grind out 3-4 yards on 1st and 2nd down, pick up enough 3rd downs and get a few chunk plays with 1) JJ's legs (involve him early PLEASE to slow down those edges), 2) the TEs and 3) Edwards (this time the coaches have actually been holding back all season to use him here right?) and hopefully get to something like17-21 points with that.
On Defense keep everything in front, use Barrett or Colson and their speed to spy Milroe and force him to slowly march it down the field.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
The best bet is to try and grind out 3-4 yards on 1st and 2nd down,
The best way to sabotage our passing game—and our entire offense—is to repeatedly run the ball on 1st and 2nd down for little gain, putting McCarthy in a constant 3rd and long situation. Play action will fool nobody on 3rd and 8, and Alabama's DL will feast all day in that situation.
If we're going to have any success on offense, it will be necessary to break our season-long tendencies, especially our refusal to run play action on early downs.
We won't do that, though, because we're Michigan and we don't believe in doing anything our bowl opponent hasn't seen already on game film.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:25 PM ^
Michigan is the #1 team in the country, but they need to change what they've been doing all year to get to #1?
December 29th, 2023 at 7:54 PM ^
Yes. We're number 1. But look who we've played and the matchups.
Look who Texas, Alabama, and Washington have played.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:45 PM ^
We will NOT be able to just run Corum into a stacked box against Alabama. Their lockdown corners will allow them to commit significant resources to stop the run.
We will have to pass some on 1st and 2nd downs, so that we are not always doing it on 3rd downs. We can not be overly afraid of their edge rushers to the point where we freeze up our offense. We will have to trust our 5-star QB to play like a 5-star QB to win a CFP game.
That is as it should be. Does any team deserve to win a CFP game by still "protecting" their QB at this point in the season? You win these games by having your elite QB go out there and play out of his mind.
That is why we were so excited to have JJ commit to Michigan. He had all of the tools to finally be able to win a CFP game. It is time to cash that in.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
One more thing: we need to be successful using play action. McCarthy had a banner day with play action vs TCU last year (that was a large part of how we were able to come back from the early deficit).
Unfortunately we've almost entirely gone away from it this year. The comparison to the other playoff teams is stark:
December 29th, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^
Very interesting, thank you for this!
December 29th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
Good synopsis - and, no matchups to add. My view of the areas of emphasis.
- Michigan TE's vs Bama LB's
- QB Play
- Michigan OL vs Bama DL
- Michigan DL vs Bama OL
- Michigan WR's vs Bama secodary
As many have noted - ensure Milroe doesn't gain a lot on broken plays is critical. And, I look forward to a healthy JJ, Nugent, and Will Johnson.
Go Blue!
December 29th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
Michigan’s defense is going to give up 25-30 pts. Milroe is going to be a major problem.
Michigan’s offense needs to be able to match that and I don’t think they can with the OT and WR mismatches.
I see a 30-17 Bama type game. Milroe makes some mistakes, but also some remarkable plays with feet and arm. JJ is good, but not good enough as he is sacked 5 times and hurried 12 other times. Michigan’s run game is muted.
Texas beats Bama for the national title. Texas’ receivers are the difference.
I am kind of perplexed as to why Michigan is favored based on Michigan’s poor performances in postseason play and the aforementioned mismatches.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:13 PM ^
Like many others, I feel better about our defense being able to contain Milroe and the Bama offense and I am terrified of our offense vs. their defense.
IF the game plan is to use JJ in the run game A LOT and we use Edwards as a receiver and are motioning everyone all the time then we can absolutely win this game. But I have not seen this staff do that yet, so I will believe it when I see it. I sincerely doubt they devote a ton of time to stuff just to 'save' it for the playoffs.
This is why I am a not a fan of the "keep it all in the garage and just get out with a win" play calling strategy. Fuck that. Put it ALL on tape, make teams prepare for every fucking thing we have and the counters to it all.
Michigan can win, I just think the ways they can win are not the ways in which Harbaugh and Moore have shown they game plan and play call. I hope I'm wrong but I think this is a 2+ score Bama win.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
IF the game plan is to use JJ in the run game A LOT and we use Edwards as a receiver and are motioning everyone all the time then we can absolutely win this game. But I have not seen this staff do that yet, so I will believe it when I see it. I sincerely doubt they devote a ton of time to stuff just to 'save' it for the playoffs.
As much as I want to disagree with this, unfortunately I cannot. History tells us that the Harbaugh team we see throughout the season is the Harbaugh team we will see in the bowl game. I hope beyond all hopes that we have big wrinkles in store for Alabama. Not small tweaks, big tweaks. Because I will guarantee that Alabama will be prepared defensively for everything we have shown on film this season.
EDIT: maybe we run a few drives in up-tempo. That would be an example of a big tweak.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:35 PM ^
I don't want to agree with it either.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Michigan is favored because when you take emotions and fandom out of the equation, computer predictions, michigan has a more consistent body of work. M has done nothing on offense as it has not been needed. I dont think Alabama has the ability to contain a healthy JJ. So much focus on Bamas qb, but he would be riding the pine if on Michigans roster. Bama offensive backfield would be riding the pine backing up Corum. Alabama players are not giants, but rather they want to be giant killers. The Wolverines ARE the giants.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
After reading the Alabama previews, I feel better about our defense and worse about our offense in this game.
On D, we will have to keep an eye on Milroe, and that will limit any extra resources we can commit to their passing game. So, our secondary will have to have a day. Fortunately, I think they can. I look for Johnson to do well and Moore and Sainristil to hold their own too. The secondary will have to continue to have a nose for the ball, as getting an INT or two will be key.
On O, our passing game will have to focus on the TEs at the LB level, and then creative ways to utilize Donovan out of the backfield in the pass game. Focusing on the run game without establishing at least the short passing game will make for a slog on O.
Overall, it's imperative that we not fall behind early. Jim and Sherrone will have to apply the lessons conveyed in the TCU game.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
Biggest key is getting after Milroe, while not letting him break contain. Plus disguising coverage to confuse his reads.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
Michigan will try one trick play that's horribly obvious, fools nobody, and gets stuffed.
Alabama will run a trick play that takes Michigan by surprise and gains a big chunk of yardage.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
Alabama has the athletes with speed. Probably my biggest concern is the number of elite athletes they have. My only hope is that we play more like a complete team and can limit mistakes.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:36 PM ^
On paper, alabama has the same mix of elite athletes as osu....yet 3 years in a row it hasnt yielded results. TCU ripped up and down the field against us last year with lesser athletes. Star gazing.
December 29th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
Not a game you can fall behind in early like last year. If Michigan goes down 10-14+ points, in all likelihood their goose is cooked.
Truthfully, Alabama was/is the absolute last team I'd want to find myself lined up opposite from in the playoff. I'd probably rather have even played Georgia. This year's Georgia team, anyway.
Its not a vintage Alabama team, but Nick Saban just knows how to win these games, and they have big mismatches at spots where Michigan may have little to no answer. There are ways for Michigan to win this game. But there are also ways that Michigan loses this game 38-17.
Honestly, JJ McCarthy is going to need to have the game of his life. I trust that the defense will be able to do enough, but if Alabama forces Michigan to being one-dimensional....against that secondary? We're probably done, unless JJ starts playing like a first rounder. Which he can do, but tough sledding against two corners who are being talked about as first round guys.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
Auburn was down 14-0 early vs Alabama.