Massey Composite Ranking Comparison of Michigan and TCU
Massey has a composite poll of 99 different rankings. Here is how the 4 playoff teams compare:
Michigan is ranked higher in 96 rankings, TCU is ranked higher in 3 rankings.
Overall Composite Ranking: Michigan #2, TCU #4
Mean: Michigan 2.26, TCU 5.33
Median: Michigan 2.0, TCU 4.0
St. Dev.: Michigan 0.80, TCI 2.73
Michigan's Highest Ranking is #1 in 6 different rankings (Donchess Inference, Massey BCS, Born, Stat Fox, Congrove, According to Comp.
Michigan's Lowest Ranking is #6 in 1 poll (Weighted Win Paths).
TCU's Highest Ranking is #2 in 5 polls.
TCU's Lowest Ranking is #12 in 2 polls.
Just 2 of 99 rankings have Michigan ranked outside of the best 4 teams.
46 of 99 rankings have TCU outside of the best 4 teams.
December 24th, 2022 at 8:54 AM ^
One more week……#GoBlue
Merry Christmas to you and your family
December 24th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^
et cum spiritu tuo
December 24th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
That’s what she said
December 24th, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
December 24th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
+1 for the Latin comment and another +1 for the Leisure Suit Larry response.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
I was trying to remember the last time I felt so confident going into a big game like this that had real meaning… maybe 2018 OSU (and we all remember how that ended). When was the last time you felt Michigan was going to win a game that had real stakes?
December 24th, 2022 at 9:11 AM ^
This year's OSU game.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
Last year's big ten championship game. Before OSU, I still had some butterflies. I was confident, but like a 7 out of 10. Going into the BTCG against Iowa, I was like 9 out of 10.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
Lloyd v Urban, as far as post season is concerned.
December 24th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
Purdue
December 24th, 2022 at 9:09 AM ^
Win the game!
December 24th, 2022 at 9:11 AM ^
The truest indicator is always set by Vegas.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:23 AM ^
Vegas doesn't care one whit about accurately predicting the outcome of the game. It is solely focused on getting 50% of the money on the favorite and 50% on the dog.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
Categorically false. Books absolutely do not seek to have equal action. They will take on liabilities based on the confidence of their predictive models.
December 24th, 2022 at 4:03 PM ^
Bullshit. Equal betting means Zero risk and a guaranteed return of 5% on one day's worth of action. That is absolutely what any book with any sense is looking for. Five-percent at, again, Zero risk, versus taking on risk that could, under the right circumstances, put you out of business. To take on liability based on your own projections makes you a gambler yourself. Maybe a self-styled sophisticated one with a system, but a gambler, nonetheless in technique. Books are not gamblers. The OP is exactly right.
December 25th, 2022 at 7:13 AM ^
Books are not gamblers.
They literally are though, there all guys who had massive success gambling full time and a sportsbook brought them in-house to set the lines.
December 26th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
Gambling is probabilities, when the books are confident in a price/prop whatever, they take on asymmetrical money absolutely. I have worked with books data science teams quite a bit in the modeling space. The 50/50 idea was potentially a strategy back in the day, but it’s not a explicit goal currently by any means.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
That is false.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:31 AM ^
New to the concept of sports betting. How does Vegas make money if they hit 50/50?
Let's say the favorite would pay out less than the dog. If the favorite wins, they have to pay out the dog. At 50/50 wouldn't Vegas lose money? If the dog wins, they lose even more, no?
I'm still trying to wrap my mind around this stuff.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
Urban Dictionary has a good description
When wagering on a straight wager (point spread or total), you lay a certain amount of money to win a smaller amount of money. The difference between what is wagered and what is won is called the 'Juice' or 'VIG'. This 'Juice' or 'VIG' is one of the ways a sports book makes its money. In football and basketball the 'Juice' (or 'VIG') is 10%. In other words, for every $110 wagered you will win $100. If you lose the wager, you lose $110
December 24th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
Obviously, Vegas stands to make money on sports betting.
If it's a point spread, you lay money odds on either side, most frequently -110. If you bet the money line, they aren't the same. For example, they may offer you TCU +255, but if you want to bet on Michigan, you have to lay bigger odds like -305.
December 24th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
The juice.
simple example, one person bets $10 for Michigan to cover and another bets $10 on TCU to cover. When Michigan covers one guy wins $9 ($10 - $1 juice) and the other loses $10. Vegas profits $1. Btw the juice is typically 9%.
December 24th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
You pay 10% of what you lose. Bet $100 and lose will cost you $110.
But the whole point was that Vegas knows who the better team is more than the polls. Vegas may agree that GA and Michigan are the best two teams in the country. No way in hell does Vegas believe TCU is the 3rd or 4th best team in the country.
December 24th, 2022 at 4:04 PM ^
You're exactly right, and all these fools, starting with the Nick Saban's of the world, who think that betting lines mean anything except a goal of symmetric betting, are completely full of shit.
December 25th, 2022 at 12:22 AM ^
The books set the initial lines and then the lines get adjusted based on where the public puts its money. It's amazing how close the spreads and over/unders are to the final outcome of most games. But it's not really the books that are the whiz kids. It's the "group think" of the general public that drives the betting lines to be wildly accurate.
December 25th, 2022 at 7:18 AM ^
What you're describing is called pari mutuel betting which is what the horse race tracks do. It's not how Vegas sets up their sportsbook. They're happy to take a risk against homer bettors of famous schools. They also have instant access to news like injuries so they'll move the lines way before the betting public does on such news events.
December 24th, 2022 at 10:36 AM ^
I'd wager that Vegas's point spreads are never farther from reality than in the CFP.
Really good teams plow through the season trying to keep the stars healthy, and they have often transformed into the best version of themselves to win, by either much more than expected or in an upset.
Other teams are happy to be there and lack the ceiling of the super elite teams, and get blown out of the water.
It appears very difficult to capture the playoff versions of these teams.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
Based on this, the final score should be Michigan 46, TCU 2.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:24 AM ^
That would definitely be worse than 46-3.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
I had a dream early last week that Michigan pounded TCU 62-10. And I did not go to bed drunk that night or was I under the influence of anything.
December 24th, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
Here’s to hoping your dream comes true…
December 24th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
and you woke up kinda sad, but then you cheered up because you know they'll beat Bingville by way more than that...
#RIP Lance Harbor
December 24th, 2022 at 10:31 AM ^
Sorry, no way Michigan scores that much. Winning by that much implies 3 8 Minute drives to consume the second half clock. Maybe 42 - 10?
December 24th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
TCU is a good football team and deservedly in the playoffs but they've played two teams currently ranked in the top 25 and went 2-1 against them with a total margin of victory is +14; UM has played two ranked teams and have a total margin of victory of +46. UM will be a significant step up for TCU in terms of competition level and so it'll be interesting to see how they handle it.
December 24th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
I would add to that TCU is 5-1 in 1 score games, whereas Michigan is 2-0. TCU is somewhat lucky to be in the playoff.
One could argue Michigan’s lack of close game experience could be a negative, but we all recall how many games were close at halftime only to see Michigan steamroll their opponent in the second half.
Anything can happen in college football, but Michigan is a 7.5 point favorite for a reason, and deservedly so.
December 24th, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^
Per the Massey Composite Schedule, TCU has played 4 top 25 ranked games:
#7 Kansas State
#7 Kansas State
#12 Texas
#25 Texas Tech
Michigan has played 3 top 25 ranked games:
#3 Ohio State
#8 Penn State
#24 Illinois
December 24th, 2022 at 1:16 PM ^
"but they've played two teams currently ranked in the top 25 and went 2-1 against them"
As Bensant said below, I didn't know there was going to be math involved.
(Oh. We're counting do-overs? Got it.)
December 24th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
I didn't know there was going to be math involved.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^
My takeaway is that TCU is no pretender. Harbaugh will take them seriously, and so should fans. A couple of bad bounces, this is a tight one or worse.
December 24th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
Win the game. Go Blue.
December 24th, 2022 at 5:13 PM ^
Given Michigan’s postseason record since Jan. 1, 1970, I always get a bad feeling when the “experts” say Michigan is favored to win over an allegedly inferior opponent.