Maizenbrew's inside the numbers: halftime adjustments

Submitted by dnak438 on

OOF:

Michigan's Third-Quarter Point Differential vs. Power 5 Schools (Last 8 Games)
Date Michigan U-M 3Q Points Opponent Opp. 3Q Points
Nov. 16, 2013 Michigan 0 Northwestern 3
Nov. 23, 2013 Michigan 0 Iowa 7
Nov. 30, 2013 Michigan 0 Ohio State 14
Dec. 28, 2013 Michigan 0 Kansas State 0
Sept. 6, 2014 Michigan 0 Notre Dame 7
Sept. 20, 2014 Michigan 0 Utah 7
Sept. 27, 2014 Michigan 0 Minnesota 17
Oct. 4, 2014 Michigan 0 Rutgers 0
Total Michigan 0 Opponent 55

and

Michigan's Quarter-by-Quarter Point Differential vs. Power 5 Schools (Last 8 Games)
Team 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q/OT Total
Michigan 33 52 0 66 151
Opponent 54 64 55 56 229
Margin -21 -12 -55 +10 -78

Here's the LINK.

Arizona Blue

October 9th, 2014 at 4:13 PM ^

Do we really need more articles / more posts about our coaching staff being incompetant. Its a given, our coaches are really really bad. They maybee were good a long time ago (GMAT) or never very good ever (Hoke, Funk, Borgie (RIP)).

Arizona Blue

October 9th, 2014 at 4:15 PM ^

And i may get negged for this but you know what, our players arent very good either. I watch a lot of college football and our players look like little boys (even JMFR). I am amazed when i watch football how old some of the players look at SEC and PAc-12 schools. Like really, you are 19? you look like a 35 year old ex-con.

Arizona Blue

October 9th, 2014 at 4:26 PM ^

Brother, the notion that we have talent stock piled to win immediatley and just need the right coach to put the pieces together to turn the team around keeps me alive. The skeptic in me however does not fully accept that notion. We certaintly dont pass the look test.

mGrowOld

October 9th, 2014 at 4:20 PM ^

No matter how damning the facts presented there is always somebody who posts in the threads like these the "explanation" for the failure and why it really isn't the team/coaches fault.

This one will be more challenging to rationalize & explain away than most.   But I have zero doubl someone will try.  Even as I type this I am sure they are working on the rebuttal to let us know why this really isn't as bad as it might seem.

4godkingandwol…

October 9th, 2014 at 4:21 PM ^

If you removed 4th quarter points that don't matter, what that would do to the results. Do other teams go into kill time mode because they feel confident the game is theirs to lose? My guess is our 4th quarter numbers are artificially inflated.

asstastic

October 9th, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^

I believe this calls for a reference to Hutchinson's tweet from the Miami game after that terrible series to end the first half: 0 points in the third quarter in the last 8 games "SHOOT MY FACE WITH A BAZOOKA"

ST3

October 9th, 2014 at 4:30 PM ^

I was conditioned as a kid never to give up at halftime because Bo, (and later Mo and Lloyd) could be counted on to make the half-time adjustments and get us back in the game.

ZERO to 55?!? Wow, just wow.

/shakes head in disbelief/disgust

blusage

October 9th, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^

I'd say RR has proven ability to make half time adjustments. RR's teams generally score more in the second half. Even when he was here, he managed to score a lot in the second half. (Don't know if anybody can drum up some stats about this or not.) This also holds true now at Arizona. Yeah, they beat Cal with a Hail Mary, but only after scoring 35 points in the second half. Against Oregon, they scored much more in the second half as well.

Space Coyote

October 10th, 2014 at 8:21 AM ^

Team Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th/OT Diff 3rd Q O/Avg Q  
Utah 2008 4 -16 -3 13 -2 -5.75  
ND 2008 -14 3 0 -7 -18 -4.25  
Wisc 2008 -6 -13 7 14 2 0.25  
Ill 2008 11 -14 -7 -15 -25 -5  
PSU 2008 3 0 -12 -20 -29 -4.25  
MSU 2008 0 0 0 -14 -14 1.75  
Purdue 2008 0 7 -14 1 -6 -10.5  
Minn 2008 6 10 3 4 23 -7.25  
NU 2008 0 7 -14 0 -7 -3.5  
OSU 2008 -7 0 -14 -14 -35 -1.75  
2008 Season -3 -16 -54 -38 -111 -4.025 10 SO
ND 2009 11 -14 7 0 4 -2.5  
Indiana 2009 0 -2 -3 8 3 -9  
MSU 2009 -4 0 -3 1 -6 6.5  
Iowa 2009 4 -10 4 0 -2 0  
PSU 2009 -3 -6 -13 -3 -25 -2.5  
Illinois 2009 0 6 -21 -10 -25 -3.25  
Purdue 2009 0 14 -15 -1 -2 -3  
Wisc 2009 0 -4 -7 -10 -21 1  
OSU 2009 -7 -4 0 0 -11 4.5  
2009 Season 1 -20 -51 -15 -85 -0.916666667 6 SO
Uconn 2010 14 -3 3 6 20 -4.5  
ND 2010 7 7 -10 0 4 -7  
Indiana 2010 7 -7 7 0 7 3.5  
MSU 2010 3 -10 -14 4 -17 -4.25  
Iowa 2010 0 -14 -7 11 -10 -7  
PSU 2010 -7 -11 4 4 -10 6.25  
Ill 2010 1 -1 7 -5 2 -4.25  
Purdue 2010 11 -10 3 7 11 -0.75  
Wisc 2010 7 -17 14 -10 -6 14  
OSU 2010 0 -17 -13 0 -30 -1.75  
Miss St 2011 4 -21 -14 -7 -38 -3.5  
2010 Season 47 -104 -20 10 -67 -0.840909091 5 SO
Total   45 -140 -125 -43 -263 -1.927525253  

Rich Rod's worst quarter was the 3rd quarter two of his three years, and his 2nd worst quarter the other year (he only "won" the 1st quarter). On average, his 3rd quarter scoring was nearly two points worse than his average scoring, so it wasn't just defense. In his three seasons at Michigan, his offense was shut out 21 times in 37 games in the 3rd quarter.

Is this because Rich Rod doesn't know how to make half-time adjustments? Absolutely not. It means his teams weren't that good, and therefore he couldn't make as many half time adjustments. But we don't need to rewrite history, it wasn't good and it wasn't well documented in his time in Ann Arbor.

Blooregard_Kazoo

October 9th, 2014 at 11:22 PM ^

I ran the numbers and in 2010 Michigan actually outscored its opponents in every quarter except the 2nd.  However, they were outscored by 100+ in the 2nd.

Interestingly enough, Michigan scored more points than its opponents in 2009, though some of that may have been due to the 63-6 drubbing of Delaware St.