The last 27 seconds of the 13-14 season
So I loved this past season, and am cognisant that the team outplayed our post-McGary back surgery expectations. They were a ~22 foot shot from a 35% three point shooter away from OT that might have gone to the Final Four. I know I shouldn't complain.
But I have to get this question off my chest, and I'm sure I'm not the only one thinking it:
With 27 seconds left and the game timed Kentucky inbounds the ball; they have shot 55% from the FT line during the game, and have averaged 68% for the season. Except for Aaron Harrison, no one on the team shoots above 75% from the free throw line.
The game has been an offensive one, with neither team being very successful on the defensive side, and our team all season has been able to make up for defensive inefficiencies because of our explosive offense.
Why not foul, put them at the line for a 1 and 1, and then put the ball in the hands of our offense - worst case down 2?
I know hindsight is 20/20, and I'm obviously biased because we lost and I was screaming to foul them before they could take a shot.
I welcome attempts to try and convince me that our strategy was better than fouling would have been.. I love Coach B, and we will be back in the final four again soon with him at the helm. Was this a mistake?
OK, its off my chest. Bring on football season, and hopefully above freezing weather sometime soon.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:18 AM ^
It sucks that it went in, but I think Harrison taking that three is just about exactly what we wanted no? A 30-something % shooter launching it from deep over outstreched hand of Levert. 9 times out of 10 that shot doesn't go down and leads to a long rebound we could've pushed for a final winning shot.
I don't think you intentionally foul and put yourself down with that little time left.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:23 AM ^
March 31st, 2014 at 11:17 AM ^
Did people crucify Brady when he went for 2 against OSU?
I understand the arguments against it, but I feel like we were playing not to lose, rather than to win.
March 31st, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^
March 31st, 2014 at 10:40 AM ^
though I sort of wish we had fouled as well. Based on how they were shooting, they were likely going to miss a FT and with how we were shooting I would have though we'd have a great chance to win it.
Hindsight is 20/20 though. If UK wasn't shooting out of their mind from 3 yesterday then the strategy we played is just fine and probably the better option. Tough call
March 31st, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^
However, we should've waited longer to use our last foul before they went into the bonus.
Greg Anthony even pointed out that they were just trying a dribble handoff and we fouled with like 10 seconds to go.
I thought we should've waited until they started to actually run something and then hack them and make them take it out on the side.
That's the only think I would've changed.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:58 AM ^
I would agree, but that's tough - you don't want to wait too long and miss your opportunity. We ended up with what should have been a good outcome (a so-so shooter launching a 3 with LeVert in his face) but it went in.
March 31st, 2014 at 10:54 AM ^
March 31st, 2014 at 11:03 AM ^
The game came down to one simple stat: 3 pt %:
Kentucky: 7/11 - 64%
Michigan: 7/18 - 39%
Kentucky beat us at our own game. Flat out, when you're playing a team with monster bigs who will dominate the glass on almost anyone, if you can't win the 3 pt battle you will lose far more often than not. We shot a decent near 40%, and if Kentucky doesn't shoot an out of its mind 64%, we probably win this game. Let's say they shoot a respectable 5/11 for 45%?
That's 6 points and Michigan wins. Simply put, what can you do when another team shoots out of its mind? Reminds me of a mini version of the Bo Kimble and Santa Clara game in 1990 where Michigan gave up like 140 points because their entire team just couldn't miss a three...
Only other real indicator were J Mo's ticky tack second foul at end of 1st half and ticky tack 3rd fould at start of second half. But he got no more hosed than Maymon did on some real iffy calls in the prior game.
3 pt shooting... We live and die by it.
March 31st, 2014 at 11:06 AM ^
March 31st, 2014 at 11:19 AM ^
There is a risk there. If you lightly foul away from the ball, the officials won't call it in that juncture. If you foul him hard, you could draw a flagrant foul call.
March 31st, 2014 at 11:21 AM ^
Commmit the 6th foul at 23 seconds. Hold a non 70+% shooter on the inbounds for the 7th.
March 31st, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
I don't think there are any coaches that would deliberately foul in those circumstances. Maybe the percentages say otherwise, but I don't think any coach wants to give them free throws to take the lead at the end of the game.
March 31st, 2014 at 11:20 AM ^
Mathlete?
March 31st, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
Having said that, it would take huge balls to pull it off. Any coach would be crucified by the media if it failed, but praised if it worked. I can't blame Beilein for not taking that unconventional risk. Classically, you just don't give your opponent two free shots to win the game.
March 31st, 2014 at 12:42 PM ^
You can't put points on the board for them. You can't just give them the lead. 20/20 knowing he takes that shot from that spot with LeVert in his face? I give him that shot all day!! Give him that shot 10x and he hits 1, this just happened to be THE one. It's a heartbreaker, nothing more, no sense it what-if'ing it to death. ][V][ Go Blue!
Something I keep coming back to is the way things would have played out differently if Michigan had been up by 1 (as though, for instance, Caris LeVert's close 3-pointer had actually been counted for 3). Kentucky couldn't hold the ball for a guaranteed last (quality) shot if they were actually trailing rather than tied, and it seems pretty unlikely that they would have tried a 3 in that situation. I'm having a real hard time getting over the screwjob elements of that game.
in the first half that was blatant. two extra points for them. I'm sure there were bad calls both ways but those really bad ones are always the ones that sting. Greg Anthony even wondered aloud why that isn't reviewable.
On Friday, Kentucky shot in excess of 81% from the free throw line. The Harrison's were 11-for-12 and they were the ones most likely to be fouled early in the possession. Do we need to belabor this debate any further?
probably wouldn't have made more than a 5-10% difference in win probability either way. I was thinking similarly. It's a bit like letting a football team score deep in your territory with a minute left when you're tied so that you can get the ball back and try to tie it instead of have them run the clock out and have have a good chance at a field goal to end the game.
One major factor here is whether you can foul a guy off the ball without it being intentional and I think you are allowed in college bball. I'm not sure who was in the game at the time but if Johnson was in there at 44%, this probably would have been a strategy that marginally improved michigans win %, especially since it'd put one of their best rebounders on the line. My guess is Poythress was in the game for this very reason and that would mean there weren't any guys on the floor that were particulary bad at FTs.
I'm too lazy to do the probability calculations but for anyone wanting to give it a shot, the probability of oreb on a miss is not going to be anywhere near 63% for them. A FT is far easier to rebound for the defensive team than a regular shot because everyone is already in position with the defensive guys close to the basket boxing out. Of course, they're huge and they'd be going for a rebound so I'd put that at 25% (still much higher than the NCAA avg).
I realize Beilein has forgotten more about basketball than I'll ever know. But...
Why do most college coaches draw up "conventional", one-inbound plays when time is exceedingly short and you have an extra timeout. I was hoping Nik would catch the ball near half-court and immediately call timeout. Then Michigan could have inbounded the ball w/ ~1.5 seconds left to a reasonable range three point shot.
I know Ben Brust pulled it off.
But think about Christian Laettner's shot. Or, down 1 against Clemson in 1990 with only 0.8 seconds left, UConn threw a length of the court pass to Tate George who did the catch-and-shoot from about 15-18 feet from the baseline to pull off the win.
The only coach I've seen think this way is the one from Butler. A few years ago, down four with about 4 seconds left, Butler threw a length of the court pass to #54 who scored from close in. Then, Butler had a chance w/ 2 seconds left to press. They didn't win, but they gave themselves a genuine chance.
If Michigan made a fouling mistake, it was that they should have been playing hack-a-Wildcat all 2nd half. Those guys were bricklayers. IMO Bielfeldt should have fouled out mugging those guys on every drive to the hoop. But on the last play, let him shoot that junk all day long. I bet he couldn't make that again (NBA fade away) unguarded more than about 25% of the time. He just got lucky. What are you going to do?
They get 1 or 2 pts... - we get 2 for win/tie or 3 for win.
I didnt think about them getting rebound tho.
Nor do I claim to know any odds/stats like JB does.