Just how good is this class, anyway? A new way of looking at rankings.

Submitted by LSA Superstar on

TLDR:  It's very good.  Jim Harbaugh deserves an absolute standing ovation.  I ranked last year's class as a C- in absolute quality without factoring in the quick turnaround.  This year's class gets an A and very nearly gets an A+.  Stellar, stellar work.

But let's get a little deeper.  One way to compare the quality of our recruiting against our Big Ten East competition is to look at absolute recruiting rankings.  By that method, OSU is #3 nationally and #1 in the B10E, Michigan is #5 nationally and #2 in the B10E, PSU is #20 nationally and #3 in the B10E, and MSU is #21 nationally and #4 in the B10E.

What I don't like, however, is that these aggregated, overall rankings don't really divulge much information about the classes themselves.  It's one thing to know our class isn't as good as Ohio State's, but where do they have us beat?  At the top?  In terms of depth?  And is MSU's top end comparable to our own?  I wanted to find new ways to find out.

I started by using the 247 composite player ratings instead of the player rankings.  I used the ratings because they're more stable year-to-year.  247 rates players on a scale between 1.0 and .70.  Roughly, ratings between 1.0 and .98 will be five star players.  .97 and .90 are four star guys.  .89 to .80 are the three stars, and everything below that is a two star.

First, let's look at each teams' class, ranked from their best player to their worst:

Next - and this is where it gets really interesting - let's put that into a graph.  You can click the image to embiggen:

Player ratings run along the left edge of the graph.  Higher up is better.  The horizontal axis represents each player, organized from the highest rated to the lowest rated.

Some takeaways:

  • Michigan's class is roughly equal to OSU at the top and at the bottom of the class.  But where OSU really separates itself as the best is that the middle of the class is thick with higher rated guys.  Our class drops off significantly between Ahmir Mitchell (.9265) and Brad Hawkins (.8997).
  • PSU's variability is pretty remarkable.  Their three highest rated prospects rival the tops of OSU and Michigan's classes.  But things drop off quickly thereafter, and absent those three players their class is actually a little worse than MSU's.  They need those three players (RB Sanders, OG Menet, and DE Simmons) to come through badly.
  • MSU lacks top-end guys, although their decommitments (DE Robertson and WR Rison) hurt them badly.  With a few more higher-rated talents, MSU's class would have rivaled our own in the middle and at the bottom of each respective class.

You also notice that the players separate themselves off into five "tiers" relative to these four schools.  Let's use the horizontal quintile lines above to define our own range of "5-star," "4-star," "3-star," "2-star," and "1-star" players to get a feel for how each class stacks up numerically.  That produces a chart like so:

  MICH OSU MSU PSU
"5-Star" 1 2 0 2
"4-Star" 8 9 2 1
"3-Star" 8 7 10 6
"2-Star" 12 7 6 6
"1-Star" 0 0 1 5

Thoughts?

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crootin'

nrc2107

February 3rd, 2016 at 5:39 PM ^

There seems to be an unusually large Preferred Walk-On (PWO) class as well. We have picked up commitments from 3 to 5 (out of the 12+ PWO's) additional players that were highly recruited by lower-level conferences. Even if we only find 1-3 Glasgow/Kovaks in this group, the level of intensity and competition will probably be raised for all of our freshmen athletes - all 40+ of them. Can you remember a total class at Michigan having 40+ incoming freshmen? Talk about Harbaugh developing his culture immediately!!

Joined: 02/03/2016

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alum96

February 3rd, 2016 at 5:41 PM ^

Answer: Check back in 2-3 years.  Like NFL drafts its all great the day of or day after.  After sifitng thru Bama and Ole Miss class and FSUs &  OSUs this afternoon in down time they are all thinking the same thing.

I break the class into 3 groups - first group (1-167) we need a ton of starters out of and 3-4 elite players to get a NC.  Second group (290-585) we need some quality starters out of.  Last group (692 to 1000+) we need a surprise like a Willie Henry who was ranked 930 or something.

Somewhere in here are a few attritions, busts, injuries etc.  It's always interesting to look back after the fact.  Look back at our 2012 and 2013 classes for comparison which rank similar to this one (#4 and #6).  Obviously far better staff to work with now.

Pos Name Ntl Rnk
DL Rashan Gary 1
OL Ben Bredeson 39
QB Brandon Peters 61
CB David Long 65
TE Devin Asiasi 74
OL Michael Onwenu 88
RB Kareem Walker 100
WR Kekoa Crawford 119
CB Lavert Hill 135
ATH Ahmir Mitchell 167
     
WR Brad Hawkins 290
DL Ron Johnson 297
DL Carlo Kemp 306
LB Devin Bush Jr 319
ATH Chris Evans 332
TE Nick Eubanks 364
S / RB Khaleke Hudson 381
WR Eddie McDoom 403
LB Elysee Mbem-Bosse 490
WR Nate Johnson 585
     
K Quinn Nordin 692
LB Joshua Uche 707
OL Stephen Spanellis 735
RB Kingston Davis 737
TE Sean McKeon 859
DT Michael Dwumfour 947
S Josh Metellus >1000
LB Dytarious Johnson >1000
S / LB Devin Gil >1000

 

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FauxMo

February 3rd, 2016 at 5:49 PM ^

It's interesting, but even if you focus on the "mdidle group" as you have it laid out here, it is incredibly strong. Sure, those kids are in the 300-550 range, and aren't your top 100 studs. But virtually every one of those guys has top-top-top offers from first rate Power 5 teams. Our "group 2" is better than most teams "group 1."

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alum96

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:02 PM ^

Yes but with Harbaugh era you have to stop with the "most teams" stuff.  We are now competing with OSU, FSU, Bama, Clemson types if we want our goals.  We are not dealing with Wisconsin or Nebraska level teams now for our goals.  We are dealing with a very specific subset of 5-6 teams nationally to get where we want to.

I would love to see the chart above with FSU, Bama, Auburn, Georgia spliced in.

We are not talking about 2003 and winning the Big 10.  We have a monster in our own division and then there are monsters in the playoffs.  Having good players in the 400s and 500s is the same as those elite teams.  We need superstars to emerge from the top and a lot of 3rd 4th 5th round picks to emerge out of the rest, cognizant 8-10 of these guys wont work out

Also this specific class needs to be good in a short window as a ton of these guys are going to be starting or 1st in line in depth chart in 2017.  It's a critical class to get a high hit rate on.

Joined: 04/28/2012

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BigBlue02

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:28 PM ^

That is one of the most exciting parts of this class for me. Knowing that we don't have to say "oh shit we have to start some sophomores." The last 10 years or so, I was worried about starting young guys because we were forced to start them and I knew they weren't ready. With Harbaugh, I have no doubt that if we have to start a young guy, he will either be ready to start or Harbaigh will mask any possibly weaknesses they might have.

Joined: 06/29/2009

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ABOUBENADHEM

February 3rd, 2016 at 7:57 PM ^

this year's UM class being better than what even the OP numbers above might be saying. First, I give Harbaugh a huge edge in deciphering real talent/potential/upside from the guys that look good on paper or in high school, but can't make the leap to college. In other words, a Harbaugh guy rated at .8897, might be more like a .9377. What do you guys think the Harbaugh talent evaluator bump equates to, per player? Second, Harbaugh and his staff will make more out of these guys by better coaching and by demanding a stronger work ethic, than in previous years. So, we have a much better chance to maximize the true potential of this class with Harbaugh.

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bacon

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:33 PM ^

One point of note is that looking at overall rankings misses one huge point: not all positions are valued equally. Quinn is the top kicker in the country. Davis is the top FB in the country. Both are undervalued because they are not in positions that are valued, but in the Harbaugh offense, FB Is damn important, and we will always recruit the top FB's because we value them. The rankings do not. They favor the athletes that OSU uses at skill positions, but Harbaugh is less likely to recruit in large numbers because we don't put multiple slot ninjas out on every play.

Joined: 01/04/2009

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Mr Miggle

February 3rd, 2016 at 7:29 PM ^

A good kicker is worth more, but sites undervalue them. I think it's because they can't rate them with confidence. QB is hugely important. They're not adequately weighted in class rankings.

You're wrong about Kingston Davis though. He made it very clear he wants to play RB and it's unlikely he'd be in this class if Harbaugh recruited him to play FB, a position he hasn't played. He's listed at FB by some sites because they think he projects there. He may in some offenses, but is the type of RB Harbaugh wants. That's another way players get undervalued. They get rated for a generic system, but might project better with the right fit.

Joined: 10/07/2010

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bronxblue

February 3rd, 2016 at 10:20 PM ^

There will be flameouts at this school under Harbaugh; it happens everywhere.  I don't know if Green lacked "heart" or whatever; for stretches he did seem like the best back UM had, at least under Hoke.  Sometimes things just don't work out.  I do think that Harbaugh's teams will be more flexible about moving guys around to try to maximize their abilities even if it wasn't the position they came in looking to fill.

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bronxblue

February 4th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^

Drake Johnson came on strong to end 2014, but to start the year the buzz was that Green looked like the better option at RB compared to Smith.  Again, he never lived up to the buzz, but Hoke's entire RB recruiting and development system was terrible, not just Green.  

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I dumped the Dope

February 3rd, 2016 at 5:47 PM ^

when osu walks onto the field, they have a blue chip athlete at each position, offense and defense.  We have had what I'll say is above average, but not in the same league.  Those guys make plays at times simply because of higher athleticism.

I think you couple what I perceive to be a "harder core more technical scheme" that I believe Michigan runs, with the caliber of athletes you see here today, I think we will like what we see in the upcoming years.  Nutshell:  a higher number of 11 players are doing their assignment on any given play.

Meijer is nonstop, for sure, but like anyone, he can and WILL be beaten.

Joined: 09/22/2013

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ih8losing

February 3rd, 2016 at 7:02 PM ^

They, like Bama, have very talented depth at just about every position. This needs to be a recruiting class that sets the tone for Michigan. 2017 should at least match, likely by having a stronger middle of the class which will provide that much needed depth.

For 2017, I hope Donovan Peoples Jones will be one of our main targets.



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alum96

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:07 PM ^

Dont think "starter" designation on DL is as important as most positions.  We are probably going to rotate 8 guys and the guy who plays the most if everyone is injury free probably gets 60% of snaps.

With Gary the question is, is freshman Gary better than senior Taco Charlton as I think that is the battle at one end.

Inside I see Mone and Glasgow and Wormley the other end.   If Henry was here I'd say Gary is not starting as he will lag behind these guys.   I see him very much in a Malik McDowell freshman role - where he plays a lot but is not a starter but has very good impact and then explodes in year 2. 

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stephenrjking

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:42 PM ^

Gary gets serious playing time. Walker, if he has "it," gets carries in most or every game. An LB like Bush gets playing time; the lousy positional depth means that if a frosh LB performs well he could start by late season. The high-tier DB recruits see small amounts of PT. One or two Frosh receivers probably sees time in the slot, but not much. And a HB-TE type like Asiasi probably gets in a fair amount. But Michigan is a contending team even without the recruits this year. Gary is too good to keep off of the field, but the rest (except maybe the LBs) have to outplay quality starters to earn playing time. Starting is very unlikely. In 2017 the story will be a lot different.

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Mr Miggle

February 3rd, 2016 at 7:14 PM ^

I think it' would be a surprise if we didn't end up with a freshman starting at LB. Grant Perry had a nice bowl game, but he's going to have a lot more competition at slot. I expect one of the freshmen to end up with more snaps. Asiasi is my pick to start in AJ Williams place. Nordin starting at P or PK would not be a surprise at all. They might even prefer Allen not do both.

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stephenrjking

February 3rd, 2016 at 9:55 PM ^

I neglected to discuss kicker, and I agree completely with you about it. If Nordin can equal Allen in one of his duties (and while Allen wound up being just fine at PK, he's not brilliant at it) there's no reason not to have him take over that side of the load.

I agree that it's possible for Perry to see competition at slot; my reserved view of their PT has more to do with the infrequency Harbaugh uses three-wide personnel. Even 50% of the snaps at slot probably works out to 10 or less (without looking at the actual numbers). 

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blueday

February 3rd, 2016 at 5:50 PM ^

guys will take a jump while in the system.  We know Harbaugh and staff can spot talent and develop.  I'll take their evalaution over someone that probably never saw the players play anyday.

Joined: 11/04/2014

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AZBlue

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:12 PM ^

He has had multiple legal issues since the fall and is awaiting a hearing on a misdemeanor battery charge. Assuming this gets resolved in a positive manner he should end up at MSU - insert Dantonio discipline joke here. If he doesn't end up at MSU it will be their choice not his as his tweet today said he was opening up his options but MSU was still by far his #1 choice.



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991GT3

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:06 PM ^

They identify needs and seek the best player in that position. Sometimes they are not five star. The important consideration is are they coachable? A top tier coaching staff can make 3-4 star player play like they are five star.

Joined: 12/14/2013

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ThadMattasagoblin

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^

This year was a wash between Ohio State and Michigan recruiting for the first time in forever. MSU has a good class that is up there with PSU but most of those guys are from Michigan and surrounding states. Next year Michigan leads for most of the instate recruits so we'll see if they're is a drop off there.

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gwkrlghl

February 3rd, 2016 at 7:22 PM ^

MSU's bread and butter is largely taking a share of the MI top 10 and then picking off 3*/4* tweeners from Indiana and Ohio. Their reach doesn't really extend beyond that. If those areas are shut out, their classes will just drop in quality. They won't be able to go out and recruit Texas or Virginia or Georgia

Joined: 04/13/2012

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jsquigg

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^

I think just in sheer numbers we have more chances to develop successful players, but to be fair our two rivals also have pedigrees in development.  I really think UM separates itself from Sparty next year.  Harbaugh is better on all levels than Dantoni.  The Game is going to be crucial next year.  Michigan will have the more experienced team, but JT Barrett might be key to bridging the gap to their incoming talent and they'll be playing in that shit hole.  With that said, I think next year will be special.  No way Jimmy is going to forget Sparty's lack of sportsmanship or the beating Urbz gave us.  If Michigan stays relatively healthy they should win the Big Ten.

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AC1997

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:15 PM ^

I love the graph....excellent way to quickly compare classes. When I "rank" a recruiting class in detail, I like to break it into position groups and then give them a report card with a grade for star power, depth, and versatility. So a Hoke WR class might get an A for depth if they took a typical 3 guys, a mediocre grade for star power, and a bad grade for versatility. This year the OL would probably be a B for star power, a C for depth (low numbers), and a C- for versatility (no LT, no C).

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bacon

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^

The thing is that the top of Michigan class is Gary and there's no other recruit like him. They gave him an arbitrary number to max out the scale, but he far and away is the best player in the class. He's actually dominant enough to be two five stars, so I think we win. Plus, Harbaugh will make all those guys in the middle better, well rounded players. Not just one-dimensional cogs in a system.

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EGD

February 3rd, 2016 at 6:24 PM ^

Looks like MSU stockpiled a lot of talent at two spots: WR and DL.  They also signed a number of 3-star OL and with their track record of developing that position, I'd imagine most of those guys will pan out.  Still, I think it's kind of an underwhelming haul for them considering the run of success they have had lately.  There are no 5-stars and only one top-100 player.  

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victors2000

February 3rd, 2016 at 8:42 PM ^

that in a disparaging way. They don't have the facilities, the 'it' factor; it's going to be hard to recruit there. Even so, the class is top 20 and the best one in Coach Dantonio's time in East Lansing. Coach Dantonio gets a lot out of his guys; now that he's got better 'guys', do you really expect them to take a dip? I wouldn't count on it.

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