"JJ is a rich man's Brock Purdy" - TCU's Purple Theory podcast

Submitted by 502sezGoBlue on December 22nd, 2022 at 8:39 PM

Had some time on the road today and was desperate for Fiesta Bowl content. I came across the Purple Theory podcast from TCU and gave their Michigan Defense (link) and Michigan Offense (link) previews a listen. Overall a decent analysis but I thought their comparisons the best part:

  • They called JJ "a rich man's Brock Purdy" with much better weapons. They even went as far as to call JJ a "system quarterback." 
  • They compared their team to Purdue, "except better at everything"
  • They compared Michigan to Texas, "except better"

Michigan Offense

  • Started with a long monologue on how we've played nobody with a strong defense, and those we have (Illinois) we put up very few points. They think all of our offensive stats are inflated
  • They're worried about Donovan Edwards' explosiveness and our offensive line's dominance (noted our limited sacks allowed and penalties taken there)
  • They're not as worried about JJ, thinking they can put pressure on him and he'll crumble
  • They called our offense the exact inverse of theirs - Michigan plays "bully ball," stays ahead of the sticks and wears you down. TCU ekes out first downs and waits to make the big play.  

Michigan Defense

  • Started again with a long monologue on how we've played nobody with a strong offense and, more so, nobody with a balanced offensive attack 
  • They're terrified about our defensive line, mentioned our edge depth and Mazi Smith's strength as a major risk to punish their O-line (apparently Texas Tech had some success here?)
  • They do not see any holes in our defense - called Rod Moore a "ball hawk," called out Junior Colson and Michael Barrett's strengths
  • In their eyes, their biggest chance is activating Max Duggan's legs and the air raid offense
  • Also called out our ability to limit the big play, shutting things down and limiting to field goals inside our own 40

Overall, they compared this to their Texas game - focus on making no mistakes, hang around in the game, and win the game with an explosive play or two. These podcasts made me feel more confident, especially hearing how narrow they felt their opportunity is. 

For anyone looking to listen, the Michigan portion of each podcast starts around the 20 minute mark.

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umfan83

December 22nd, 2022 at 8:51 PM ^

Some solid takes, but these ones were pretty bad:

  • We played the 2,3 and 11 defense in the country per SP+.  Scored 27 on the road against number 2, 19 at home against number 3, 45 on the road against number 11.  Sure we struggled against Illinois in a game we lost Corum (who was having a big day), Edwards was out, Stokes was hobbled and we were playing in poor conditions, but we moved the ball well against Iowa and of course OSU
  • I can't find pressure rates quickly, but Michigan had the 11th best sack allowed rate in the country this year and JJ is a mobile QB who can scramble under pressure and turned the ball over just 3 times all year.
  • Nobody with a strong offense somewhat valid except the part where we played Ohio State and allowed 23 points.  

I do agree that Duggan running is my biggest concern defensively, though its more about not facing a ton of QBs that can run.  

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OuldSod

December 23rd, 2022 at 9:31 AM ^

TCU 62, ISU 14. 

I didn't watch the game but kept checking the statline that day and was shocked at the score. TCU only had 377 total yards, ISU had 330. ISU turned it over 3 times to 0 received. TCU also had a 62 yard kickoff return. TCU punted 4 times; ISU 3 times. TCU 5.5 yards per play; ISU 4.8.

Scoring 62 points off of 377 yards is impressive. But the game was an outlier. Play it 10 times and it's much closer 8 or 9 of them.

 

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AndrelAnthonyCarter

December 22nd, 2022 at 9:12 PM ^

Completely agree on all points. The one dude also fixated on JJ's worst pass of the year (pick 6 vs PSU) like it's somehow representative of what happens when he's under pressure. 

Re: Duggan, I been worried also. This chart makes me feel a little better. He has his weaknesses too. Though none as obvious as CJ Stroud's, lol. (h/t @cover2figuRes on Twitter for the plot)

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Midukman

December 23rd, 2022 at 6:09 AM ^

This chart solidifies what a dam good qb Bennet is. Also proves Stroud is statue who doesn’t like being hit and or won’t do whatever it takes to win a game. No way Cj played for Urban without being willing to sacrifice himself when needed. Meanwhile we have a hockey playing guy who looks like he’s 12 and will turn inbounds for an extra couple. 

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MEZman

December 22nd, 2022 at 8:52 PM ^

I listened to that earlier today and his co-host talked him down from the Purdy take which was largely based on the PSU INT. He did mention that Purdy had an issue with deep shots but I never watched enough of Purdy to know if he was just missing dudes by a few feet or if he was way off on deep shots.

I enjoyed it and came away with the same takeaway as you as far as their thoughts on their chances. They laid it out fairly well that they need Duggan to run and need to be more efficient on offense when their offense is built entirely on explosiveness. They also were properly terrified of M's TE's and it sounds like their LB's are not going to have a great time with them. They were also very complimentary of Cornelius Johnson based on the OSU game.

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LB

December 22nd, 2022 at 8:59 PM ^

I can go with that. I mean if you ignore the Heisman Candidate QB and a receiver who was a mid-season pick for All-American and the Maxwell award OSU is just another above average offense.

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UMForLife

December 22nd, 2022 at 8:59 PM ^

Do they remember Knowles and how well his defense performed in B12? And how his defense against UM? He was the best DC.in B12. Look what MD, NW and other "offensively challenged" teams did in B1G. They think they are going to pressure UM on offense? Take that OSU which has better athletes than TCU. They think somehow it is going to happen? 

TCU offense is good. But they have not seen defenses like B1G offers. B1G has many defenses that are better than Texas. They probably don't understand how things went in Illinois game and who could and couldn't play.

Having said that, it will be a good game, but JJ is being underestimated and he is going to dominate this game. Talk about running around and making plays. JJ has another gear that TCU is going to face. 

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MEZman

December 22nd, 2022 at 9:07 PM ^

They admitted that Michigan is better than Texas on D and they were worried that that game turned on a blown coverage.

I don't really think anyone outside of the M fanbase can appreciate how little JJ was allowed to run this year to save him for OSU/post-season. I'm guessing TCU's analysts will see it after watching the tape and be as ready as they can but opposing fanbases aren't going to get that based on watching highlights or a couple of games.

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DennisFranklinDaMan

December 22nd, 2022 at 9:49 PM ^

I really hope you're right. But Harbaugh has also proven himself quite willing to ignore obvious match-up advantages over the year in favor of some predetermined game plan (essentially ignoring Nico Collins comes to mind, but it's hardly the only example), and ... I could see Harbaugh preferring a game plan that doesn't expose JJ to danger ... and then be unwilling to adapt if that's not working, out of a conviction that our running backs and o-line will eventually start to dominate.

I hope I'm wrong, of course. Brian has, over the course of the season, made a pretty compelling argument about how much even 3-4-5 good quarterback runs a game can open up holes for everything else, and I hope Harbaugh, et al, activate JJ's legs in that way.

But it's not inevitable.  

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MEZman

December 22nd, 2022 at 11:13 PM ^

Uh, JJ has run in the games where the staff thought his legs would be needed. So I'm not sure I agree. The Illinois game they didn't think it'd be needed and they were wrong but that's about the only time I really thought in the end they should have let him run more (there were other games where I was frustrated they didn't run him more but in the end it wasn't needed).

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I'mTheStig

December 22nd, 2022 at 9:57 PM ^

They admitted that Michigan is better than

Michigan is better than them in every facet of the game

Fixed it for them.

If Michigan's front 7 is clicking, Duggan is going to have nightmares about this game for a long time. 

He'll need counseling for the PTSD. 

TCU hasn't seen a defense like this and their claims of speed won't matter when Duggan is on his back all game.

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AndrelAnthonyCarter

December 22nd, 2022 at 9:04 PM ^

Excellent summary, thank you! I listened to the Offense episode and confess I was a bit disappointed by their analysis. I really like @statsowar on Twitter, but thought he was missing the forest for the trees with his focus on some rather narrow (duh) statistics. And wish I'd seen this before spending waaaay too long fast forwarding at 15s intervals looking for the actual football content...

We're truly spoiled by the authors of this site and their ability to break down each play and each player. Seth and Brian of course, but shout out to Alex who has hit dinger after dinger on his FFFF scouts this year. I can't wait to see his take on TCU. They're truly different from any team Michigan has played in the last two years. Bring on the game week content!

 

edit:typo

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6tyrone6

December 22nd, 2022 at 9:14 PM ^

Watched the Texas game. Texas was at home, 6-3 at the time one of the losses to Alabama close. Texas QB Ewers was not good, and receivers dropped 3-4 balls in the first half. Texas O had no rythym the entire game. TCU defense has a couple players on the line who look good 98 on the edge is strong and fast, Tomlinson the DB makes plays. The LBS are big 240-250lbs and look like old time Iowa LBs. Their base is 3-3-5, the LBS seem to all crash down straight ahead a lot,I  think our offense can play action that and kill them with the TEs mid range passing and run game.

Texas D looked pretty strong on the line couple 340lb NGs they did a great job pushing a weaker O line of TCU I think they had 3-4 sacks early on and swarmed Duggan. Duggan didn't seem to scary on escaping, he did have a couple designed runs that went well. TCU hit a Donovan Edwards type long run with everyone up. Watch the TCU kicker he likes to flop, got one or two big calls. Texas looked average and played poor and it was a close game anyway. Overall wasn't really impressed with TCU in that game.

I think Michigan overwhelms them by playing controlled and strong on the lines. I see this similar to PSU game, except maybe they hit an extra score with their tall WR Johnson UM 41-24

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njvictor

December 22nd, 2022 at 9:38 PM ^

So we haven’t played any good offenses or defenses at all? Last time I checked OSU, PSU, Iowa, and Illinois all had great defenses and Purdue, Maryland, PSU, and OSU all had solid to good offenses. It’s become very obvious over the past few years that non-B1G football fans know jack shit about any B1G teams outside of Michigan and OSU

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Eng1980

December 22nd, 2022 at 9:56 PM ^

OSU has more firepower on offense than either Michigan or TCU and Michigan beat OSU.  TCU has 20 more yard/game than Michigan and averages the same number of points per game (TCU 40.3 to M 40.1)

Michigan front loaded an easy schedule but any idea that Michigan's record or stats are inflated is a shallow idea and that dog will not hunt.

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vablue

December 22nd, 2022 at 10:08 PM ^

Okay, let’s be real.  Outside of OSU those teams are all really bad, including Illinois.  This was a historically bad year for the Big Ten and the QB play was especially bad, which made the other defenses look good statistically.  
 

the takes by TCU podcasts seem dead on.  We have not played anyone except OSU and we should still scare the shit out of them.

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JonathanE

December 23rd, 2022 at 12:06 AM ^

This was a historically bad year for the Big Ten and the QB play was especially bad, which made the other defenses look good statistically.  

I must have missed the part where the Big 12 was good or something. Looking at the conference by records and the Big Ten:

TCU 12-1

 

Michigan 13-0

Ohio State 11-1

 

Kansas State 10-3

Penn State 10-2

 

Texas 8-4

Purdue 8-5

Illinois 8-4

Minnesota 8-4

 

Texas Tech 7-5

Oklahoma State 7-5

Maryland 7-5

Iowa 7-5

 

 

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1VaBlue1

December 22nd, 2022 at 10:15 PM ^

This is a great summary - actually more than a summary!  Nice job, OP!

So JJ crumbles in a tight game under pressure, huh?  Someone might want to tell him that, I don't think he's figured that out yet!  LOL!!

BTW, remember when TCU needed a scramble drill to get a game winning FG against Baylor?  Well, Air Force is currently up 30-7 on Baylor with ~11 minutes left.  And it's a legit lead - AF > Baylor.  Not sure what transitive property this equates to, but I'm not impressed with Baylor one bit.  If this is what TCU calls 'competition', they gonna get rolled.

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