Inquiring opinions on Matt Campbell
This is not about debating if Michigan needs a new coach or not. I tend to lean towards a change, I am though aware of the rumors circulating about the potential contract. I am interested in getting a clearer picture of why so many people are completely sold on Matt Campbell. I am taking a devil’s advocate approach with this.
His records at Toledo was 9-4, 7-5, 9-4 & 9-2. He won his division twice but never won the conference. He went 1-1 in bowl games where he coached the whole season.
At Iowa State, he has gone 3-9, 8-5, 8-5, 7-6, 9-3. This season was his best finish with having the best record in the conference but losing the title game. His bowl record is 2-2.
He clearly has improved the programs that he has coached. At Iowa State taking over after 6 consecutive losing seasons. However, could the argument be made that he has not won the big game? Losing 3 conference championship games. He did win the Fiesta Bowl, but to an Oregon team that was not even supposed to be in the Pac-12 title game. Maybe his success is a product of Texas being so down that there is only one elite team in the conference. Maybe he beat Oklahoma this year because of their greenhorn QB at the time. In addition, if any Michigan coach’s best record were a nine win season he would be run out of town (unless he was beating Ohio State.) This would not be a Brady Hoke level higher, but would this possibly be a big gamble? Multiple Power 5 schools have had openings and they have not taken the gamble. So change my mind.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:42 AM ^
Are you Salvatore Quattro's burner account?
January 8th, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
Nope, I've been here since the blog started. How do you know if that's not my burner account?
January 8th, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
Touche
January 8th, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
Yay. Another thread for someone who has nothing to do with the program and never will.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^
Ahhh I went there? I've also been following this blog since it started and that's kind of what this place is for. I'm confused, are you a part of the coaching staff. No, you're on a blog where we talk about Michigan football.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:05 AM ^
JHumich, don't be an ass. OP actually posted legitimate data to discuss, and not the usual "unacceptable!" or "here's yet another random ass name you've never heard of that might be coach".
January 8th, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
Maybe because it's been pretty much confirmed that JH is coming back, what's the point?
January 8th, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
This.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
So am I suppose to take rumors as facts? If I would do that he would be fired and have got an extension at the same time. No, I'm not going to list to trolls like you until his name is officially on the line.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
"Pretty much confirmed" does not mean it has been confirmed... Therefore, there's still a reasonable discussion to be had around viable replacement candidates. I will agree that it does in fact look likely Harbaugh returns, but until it's inked, there still room for discussion.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
Yay another complainer who clicked on a thread and commented for no reason.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
Very ironic post. Commenting on a no-reason comment for no reason. Hello, pot. Meet kettle.
Or maybe both reasons are to discourage the proliferation of the no-reason posts.
I'm glad we're done with the HC thing. Jim gambling on himself is great. Whether Michigan should gamble away another few years of the program is now, thankfully, moot.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
Hey, quick question: What's your favorite flavor of crayon?
January 8th, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
What he has done at Iowa State is remarkable. Even with his first year 3-9, he has the highest winning % there since WW1. Not win the big one? They have beaten Oklahoma 7 times ever, he has 2 of them. ISUs all time win % is .455, his minus the first year is .653. He just fielded their best team ever, by a mile.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
Covid.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
Big 12 had 3 games postponed so they were barely affected by Covid. Also they had been building towards this year so it wasnt out of nowhere.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
Because postponement is the only/primary way that covid made this year anomalous
January 8th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
You are telling us Campbell’s WPARC (winning percentage above replacement coach) is 0.198. Take that and apply it to Michigan’s roughly 0.700 over the past 40 years and you have a 0.900 winning percentage. Basically, Urban Meyer. I’m sold! (Assuming that’s how coaching hires work, which they don’t. See: Harbaugh, Jim.)
January 8th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
Don't let the failure of a past good idea stop you from pursuing another good idea. Coaching searches are just gambles on good ideas. Sometimes they don't work, and that's fine. All it takes is for one of them to work.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
Thank you for a respectable answer.
January 8th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
I think he's done a really good job at Iowa St, but I'm kind of with the OP. Why do people thing he's a no-brainer hire? This year was great for them. BUT... they have a potential 1st round QB and last year he was only 7-6. Recruiting hasn't really changed from the historical norms at Iowa St. He seems solid and I think i'd probably be happy with the hire, i just find it interesting that so many people think he's a great hire. His time at Toledo looks good but it's no better than the years before him and the team got better when he left.
So my question, what do we like about him other than the W/L at Iowa St? Does he have an innovative Offense/Defense? Does he adjust well? What about his coaching is making him successful at Iowa St? I fear he lucked into a really good QB and that can make a coach look much better than they are. Does he have a history of finding and developing QBs? Is there anything more than "he's winning at Iowa St?"
January 8th, 2021 at 1:12 PM ^
How has he done against Iowa? He’s also coaching in a conference that is half as good as the Big 10 so I wouldn’t put as much stock in his record there.
Look I think Campbell is a damn good coach but I also think he still has more to prove and is probably a bigger risk then some people want to admit
January 8th, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
His defense, and DC, helps win games and his offense loses them
January 8th, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
Okay, as opposed to dumping on you for a thread like this, as I'm sure most others will, I will give you my honest answer...
Matt Campbell has shown the ability to do more with less, and is a culture guy. Coaches and players alike have echoed that. He is the kind of guy that I believe Michigan should turn to in the post-Harbaugh era.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:57 AM ^
I could say the same thing about PJ Fleck and Jeff Brohm. Both of their programs have taken a step back. I'm not saying that will happen to Campbell, but it is still a gamble.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
And? Michigan didn’t take a step back. They fell off a fucking cliff.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
Valid point.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
Yet, Meyer and Quinn think we are a team to have a big year this upcoming season.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^
i think meyer said that this year after minnesota too.
The fact is, people here were saying the team was losing because of no Thomas, Collins and injuires to Hutchinson, Paye, McGrone, Mayfield, ...
Well those guys are gone next year (except Hutch) and Carpenter, Eubanks. If their absence was the reason for the losses, why would anyone think this team is going to be better next year?
one more year of experience? A lot of the starters had been in the system for at least a year already. Now they are learning a totally new system under a DC to be named later.
January 8th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
I’d feel a lot better about next season if they would’ve given all of the young guys a lot of PT this year since they wouldn’t burn eligibility. After the year started going in the tank it would’ve made sense to me to get their feet wet in live action with incredibly low risk since the season was wasted anyhow...Maybe they did and I just didn’t notice, but seemed like they stuck with the same players unless an injury made them switch it up...
January 8th, 2021 at 10:07 AM ^
Every coaching hire is a gamble. There's no such thing as a sure thing. If that's what you're looking for in a coach, then we'll have Jim Harbaugh forever.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
If we hired Urban fuckjng Meyer it would be a gamble. There are no sure things when it comes to coaching. Matt Campbell is a big fucking lottery ticket that could take us to the next level or leave us exactly where we are now. The AD is making a huge mistake by passing him up.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:54 AM ^
1. I hate the idea of giving much weight to this season's records for any coach. That applies to Fleck, Campbell and everyone else. NW went through the whole season without a single positive test. The Covid effects were distributed unevenly and in ways we don't see.
2. Campbell has a much better record than Brohm. Fleck has had one good year above the MAC. You're always taking a chance with a new coach, but Campbell seems much less risky than most options.
January 8th, 2021 at 2:17 PM ^
PJ Fleck and Jeff Brohm also went to programs where it is difficult to attain higher levels of talent. Their culture and winning was done at programs where they were leading high talent teams in relation to their peers, Campbell is not.
Moving to a bigger conference where they don’t have the talent advantages, Fleck and Brohm have struggled to replicate the success. In Campbell’s case, he would theoretically be coming into Michigan. Where he would have top 3 talent in the conference even in a down recruiting time.
So not exactly an even comparison to begin with.
January 8th, 2021 at 7:17 PM ^
I'm sorry, but when did Fleck or Brohm ever play in the B1G championship game?
January 8th, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
My issue with any coaching hire is that fans expect perfection from them; I promise you that Campbell is unlikely to change the dynamics with OSU in any meaningful way as currently constituted. And I think that's how he'd be judged and the fanbase would not be happy in the end; I'd like to be wrong but I don't think even some random upset win against the Buckeyes would make people happy.
And I always am nervous about a team that plays a lot of one-score games, and Iowa St. does that a lot. This year Campbell went 4-2 in 1-score games; the two years before he went 3-2 and 3-3. Michigan over that same 3-year timeframe is 1-1, 2-1, and 1-1. Obviously two different types of teams and you can argue if it's more impressive to be in close games vs. blowouts (I would like to say that some of those ISU one-score games were against good teams like UT and OK but others were against, like, TCU and Drake), but I just can't shake the feeling that Michigan under Campbell would be pretty exciting rides all the way to 8-4/9-3 every year. You can argue that's Michigan under Harbaugh if you want, but I think fans sometimes think the grass is always greener and don't quite understand what that actually looks like in practice.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:47 AM ^
As i have stated before, i dislike trading in Harbaugh for this guy. Harbaugh's track record was 10x what this guys is at time of both hires.
HOWEVER, i do get that this guy may be young, hungry and up-and-coming and will work his ass off to get to the point where Harbaugh was coming in.
I lean towards keeping Harbaugh, but more importantly, i wish UM's administration would just do something at this point. Sure the hell does not help recruiting or keeping current players from the portal the longer this stays cloudy.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
It will be impossible to find a coach with Harbaugh's track record if that is your standard. It's a surprise he's failed as bad as he has.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
Harbaugh was the best coaching candidate available period. All NFL and college teams who had a vacancy wanted him
January 8th, 2021 at 10:06 AM ^
"...where Harbaugh was coming in."
That point is irrelevant, as it happened 6 years ago. What matters is where Harbaugh is at right now - and that is NOWHERE CLOSE to where he was 6 years ago. The Harbaugh we hired 6 years ago has left the building, and isn't coming back. We need a coach that is better than Harbaugh right now - not 6 years ago. Stop living in the past.
January 8th, 2021 at 11:18 AM ^
Spot on 1Va. Most programs that are constantly rotating staff are either promoting great hires, or are being HC'd by a demanding successful CEO.
I don't even care who is our OC/DC anymore, JH is still running the show
His staff doesn't learn about program building from him.
I'm not going to puff out my chest over staff hires when we continue down a known path.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:49 AM ^
Is beating Oklahoma not winning a big game? He has also beat TCU when they were ranked 4 and WVU when they were 6. Iowa St does not have the talent level to beat top 10 teams with regularity. He has three of those wins in 5 seasons whereas Harbaugh has two in 6.
Harbaugh is 11-16 against ranked teams. Campbell is 9-13. Drop their worst seasons (this year for Harbaugh, Campbell's 3-9 first year at ISU) and it's 10-14 and 9-9.
I don't think he's a home run. I have questions about him losing to NIU and Iowa consistently at Toledo at ISU. I have questions about how he would adjust to a blueblood when he has relied on his ties to Mount Union for many hires at Toledo and ISU.
But in order to challenge OSU, unless we hire Meyer or Saban - not happening - we have to get lucky. Campbell may have untapped potential. At worst, I think he gets us 9-10 wins a year and keeps losing to Ohio St.
Debatable if it's worth it. But there's no home runs out there right now IMO.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
Campbell had two wins this season alone bigger than any Harbaugh has had at Michigan in six years
Let that sink in
January 8th, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
We got the home run, but home runs sometimes end up being a single unfortunately.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
This is a much more reasonable take than all these folks convinced he's a world beater. Personally I wouldn't give him a nine win floor, he's lost some really head-scratching games, but whatever, I appreciate you not anointing him the savior.
January 8th, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
I think he's a high floor, unknown ceiling coach. When he loses, the games are close. He only has two three score losses in the past four years - in a conference known for its offense. And with Iowa St being an undesirable job, you will have wild variations in how you play. At Michigan, you can compile enough talent that your bad games are still 20 point wins against Rutgers. At mid majors and lower P5 jobs, your bad games are losses to teams you shouldn't lose to.
But his teams are organized, have an idea of what their identity is and everybody seems on the same page. I don't think he does worse than 8 wins a year here but most likely. I could see him beating OSU a couple times over the next couple years and losing a game against Indiana.
Basically you've gotta get lucky to have a generational coach for your program. OSU crazy lucky to be able to make the hires they have over the last 20 years.
January 8th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
Quite frankly, our objective at the moment shouldn't be about dethroning OSU atop the conference. It should be about being on the PSU/Wisconsin level. Get to that level and maybe, one year you have everything fall into place.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^
The rationale is that because he was able to turn around a moribund program like West Virginia, sorry i mean Ball State, sorry I mean Stanford, sorry I mean Iowa State, that he will definitely win big at a place like Michigan.
I personally can't think of any reason to doubt this logic.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:56 AM ^
Sure. So who do you hire? You take some kind of gamble with each hire. Previous gambles haven’t worked out. Hopefully another one will. You know what you get with Harbaugh.
January 8th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Harbaugh is an average 9.5 win a year coach at Michigan. It doesn't make sense to fire Harbaugh and just replace him with a 8-9 win a year type coach.
Campbell has done a nice job picking up Iowa State off the floor, but we're not looking for someone to come in and do a rebuild from scratch. If you want to go from 9.5 wins a year to 12+ wins and contend for national championships, you either need A) an ELITE, homerun hire or B) try take your 9-10 win a year team and steadily build on that.
Campbell is a great choice if you're just looking for a guy to placate unruly fans and then repeat the whole process in another four years after he averages 8-9 wins a year.