Hutch, Karlaftis, Thibodeaux--the eye test
Here's a look at the first 3 DEs taken in the Draft. At Draft time there was lots of talk about how Hutch shouldn't go early because of things like his 40 time, and he "only looked good against Ohio St". Like most Michigan fans, I never agreed with any of that talk, because I watched him play all year. And 40 time is not a big thing for DEs. Explosion at the snap IS big. And Hutch has it:
Here's a comparison that was posted on this board before. At the gun for the 40 Hutch explodes out before two other DEs that have faster 40 times. He stays in the lead for about 15 yards.
So to the topic at hand. Here's three videos showing every snap of the first pre-season game of all three, Hutch, Karlaftis, and Thibodeax. I know it's only pre-season, and the first game at that. But see what your eyes tell you about these three players.
I have to admit, Karlaftis looked pretty good. It's hard to tell which had more impact, Karlaftis or Hutch. But probably Hutch because of his explosiveness. Not too much from Thibodeaux. But it's pre-season.
What do your eyes tell you?
On a side note, it seems I see flashes of Karlaftis in Michigan's freshman DL Mason Graham. Aggressiveness. Very strong. Stands up the O Lineman. Gets push. Maybe it's just me seeing it though, and I'm biased.
August 14th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
Hutch was the highest graded rookie week 1 preseason according to PFF
August 14th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
This is actually the "every snap" video of Hutch. I posted the wrong link above.
August 14th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
Nice comparison, but where is Walker's film?
August 14th, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^
“only looked good against Ohio St", c’mon, nobody said that. This post would have been fine without attempting to create some false narrative.
August 14th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
I was going to ask who exactly was saying that lol. Basically every draft analyst was over the moon with Hutchinson and thought he would have been a deserving number 1 overall pick.
August 14th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
MSU fans said it (in addition to saying how Kenneth Walker owned him by never actually running towards him).
But yes, rational people were not saying that
August 14th, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
Georgia fans also were saying how Slayer "owned" Hutch...by running away from him, throwing 3 step passes and holding on every fucking play and hoping the refs wouldn't call it
August 14th, 2022 at 6:14 PM ^
Alabama fans were down on Hutch too because their LB Will Anderson Jr wasn't a Heisman candidate. Many of them think Hutch was a fraud candidate for the Heisman, and Anderson should have been there instead.
August 15th, 2022 at 9:23 AM ^
The problem I have with that is that Will Anderson didn't make a big impact in their biggest games, and they played a lot of terrible teams. It was a down year for Florida and LSU, his biggest game was a 0.500 Miss St team. Aiden's biggest game was OSU which was a much higher stakes game.
August 15th, 2022 at 8:29 PM ^
The big gripe with then was that Hutch played in the BIG10 and not the SEC. Hutch getting the BIG10 record for sacks didn't carry weight with them. And since Alabama dominated Ohio St in the 2020 National Championship, Hutch playing great against Ohio St didn't have much meaning to them either.
Yeah, I agree, Anderson is overrated, and the benefactor of a very talented defense all around him. Both Hutch and Ojabo had a greater impact on games that Anderson.
August 14th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
Thank you! This is the shit I hate about so much of todays discourse. Just because a small group of idiots say a thing doesn’t make it newsworthy or worth debate.
August 14th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
My thoughts exactly!!! That comment takes away from this post.
August 14th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
Early signs from camp, Hard Knocks and first game point to a star in the making. The skill set, desire and charisma put him on a Howie Long type path.
August 14th, 2022 at 1:04 PM ^
A star and future team leader. How the rest of the team reacted to him during his hazing moment and then making plays like he did in the first game. Yay, that is exactly the type of person / player teams rally around. It won't be too long before he is the face of this franchise......
August 14th, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
I’ve always thought that short of a Ray Lewis type alpha that demands excellence on every snap, this team would perpetually cave in the big moments that push a team over the top.
I hate to even think this as a 30+ year fan as I’ve thought we had that player before, but dare I say Hutch is that man?!? VERY early, but I’ll at least allow myself to entertain the thought. I may even allow myself to get moderately interested (not excited) about this team again.
August 15th, 2022 at 8:42 AM ^
Not every person or team responds to a murdering gangster the way the Raven's (and NFL) did with Lewis. Yes - he has done some good with his life later in his career and after retirement. But does that absolve a murder? Not in my book... So he was scared straight by a brush with prison, but lets not use him as an example of great leadership.
August 14th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
To be fair, Karlaftis was going against the Bears oline, which could be the worst in the NFL this year.
August 14th, 2022 at 1:44 PM ^
And also to be fair, they never once ran at Thibodeax. He was constantly backside of the play. This is a pretty small sample size, but I'm still happy with the Lion's choice.
August 14th, 2022 at 4:38 PM ^
That’s what I saw too. And when he was playside, the throws were quick.
I’m glad that people see shades of Karlaftis in Mason Graham (strange, because at 317 Graham is exclusively a DT) but it’s highly unlikely that he or Kenneth Grant are contributors this year, except for 4th quarters of blowouts. Freshmen DTs almost never are. For a given level of athlete, 18 y/o ones are just not as strong as 21 y/o ones. But we should be excited for them to be part of the rotation next year.
August 14th, 2022 at 8:02 PM ^
On passing downs KT looked pretty much like he wasn’t trying hard enough to get in the backfield. I watched Hutch and thought he may very well be a pain in the Bears side for the next decade.
August 15th, 2022 at 8:37 PM ^
To me it's that Thibodeaux isn't strong enough to get push. And in most blocks he was stopped cold. I think it's because he just isn't strong enough to have impact. The complaint about him at Oregon was in the area of effort. And lack of effort in the weight room shows up in the long term. Making O Linemen whiff, or not get squared up contact, on blocks is where he was able to make some progress.
On the other hand, Karlaftis looked very strong. He got push. And he could stand up O Linemen.
And it looks like Hutch has both, quickness/smarts and strength.
August 14th, 2022 at 8:00 PM ^
To be really fair, they didn’t even have the whole starting offensive line playing—so they were really bad on the right side, including our very own Schofield getting schooled on the field.
August 14th, 2022 at 1:20 PM ^
Small sample size, different competition, etc. Give it a few weeks into the season at least to get a decent idea of the trajectory for each.
August 14th, 2022 at 1:40 PM ^
Wishing him a long and successful NFL career.
August 14th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
Can’t wait to get Madden ‘23 and move him to the team that drafts me. Gonna be sick nasty.
August 14th, 2022 at 2:08 PM ^
We're people really talking that much about his 40? He was #1 in almost every other athletic test and his 10 meter split was also good.
August 14th, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^
We all know that draft picks can take time to develop, including from where and how they played in college to where and how pro teams want them to play. We'll need quite a bit more data before we can even try to compare these three, honestly.
But that said, I'm tickled that Hutchinson is looking good early!
August 14th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
Agree that Karlaftis looked really good and that sample size is tiny. That said, if he performs anywhere close to the other two, it’s an absolute steal for KC that late in round 1.
August 14th, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^
"only looked good against OSU"?? That is the first time I've ever heard that. He was in New York for the Heisman
August 14th, 2022 at 2:54 PM ^
Individually, in terms of athleticism, all comprable and just depends on given team’s need and defensive scheme.
Franchise player - it’s Hutch, no question. He has the charisma and work ethic and “watch what I do, how I train” type leadership that can make everyone around him better.
When you have high ceiling guys around you - as is most often the case in the NFL - the margin between victory and defeat is often very small. Ie, how many games have the Lions blown over the past decade where they had a 90% + win % at some point in the game? - Some absolutely ridiculous collapses.
Ojabo’s development last year from unknown high ceiling athlete to game wrecker is a sign of such “follow me” leadership from Hutch. Some guys are assholes and lead and mold others ala Jordan for Pippen, and others use comraderie ala Giannis for Milwaukee.
Hutch seems to be the latter.
TLDR: All 3 are dynamic individual players and we’re splitting hairs trying to separate them on measurable; but Hutch is a proven leader whose production can go well beyond his own numbers for a franchise.
August 14th, 2022 at 3:37 PM ^
I thought that 3 man match race was very telling.
Immediately after the snap Hutch had a step or step and a half on the other two. That's the most significant ability for DEs (Edges - whatever). And that lead continued for about the first 10/13 yards. That distance is also very meaningful for DEs. Through the most important distances for DEs Hutch has a clear advantage. His lead continues but gradually shrinks to about a tie at 20 yards, That distance has some significance for DEs but not as much as the earlier ones. In any case, neither of the others has any advantage over Hutch at that point and he has a clear advantage over them until then.
After 20 yards the other two have the advantage but there are few occasions where it's important how much speed a DE has after 20 yards of straight running.
August 14th, 2022 at 4:36 PM ^
As a Chiefs fan, I'm seeing Karlaftis as 2nd string this year. He's a power rusher, doesnt have Aidan's speed. That said, I love his non stop effort and his attitude. Hoping for a Mike Vrabel type player who doesnt take a down off, is smart & tough, and makes winning plays.
Aidan clearly with the higher upside though.
August 14th, 2022 at 5:51 PM ^
My main take aways are 1) they are all very, very good, and 2) the Bears are going to SUCK.
August 14th, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
karlaftis? thibodeux? why do i give a shit what they do in the nfl?
August 14th, 2022 at 8:56 PM ^
You seemed to have gave enough of a shit to open the thread then craft a reply to it.
August 14th, 2022 at 9:32 PM ^
Nobody said shit about Hutchinson’s arm length until the measurements came out, then the narrative was how he’s going to struggle with short arms. Yeah, like he struggled all season long. And RCMB said he’s no better than Kenny Willekes.
August 14th, 2022 at 9:34 PM ^
I think 40 times are one of the most overrated metrics football uses anyway.
August 15th, 2022 at 8:41 PM ^
Agreed. The 10 yard should be premier over it.
August 14th, 2022 at 11:22 PM ^
Even the 40 video isn't bad for Hutch. If you watch it, he's ahead of the other two at 10 yards, which is the most important part. That he gradually fell behind over the next 30 yards has little relevance to playing defensive end. A DE needs to get a good jump off the ball and accelerate.
August 15th, 2022 at 12:01 AM ^
Graham is a future star.
August 15th, 2022 at 8:44 AM ^
Karlaftis played at Purdue, where he was pretty much the only player that entire offenses had to game plan for. To get the stats he did is a statement to how well he plays the game. Too bad he didn't go to UM...
August 15th, 2022 at 10:21 AM ^
My eyes very much enjoyed what may well have been the first play of the game, where Hutchinson got the Failcons LT to set and then got by him in a flash, leaving the poor offensive lineman to block air. It was glorious despite being in a game that was entirely meaningless.
There will be plenty of rookie mistakes but the future is so bright. Now they just need to draft or sign a half dozen other guys who play like him and have that kind of talent.
August 15th, 2022 at 10:30 AM ^
It's human nature to have petty internet fights over stupid stuff like P.F.T.'s rating algorithm - I don't recall what their previous high grade for a rookie DE was but am sure Hutch beat it- and I don't wanna be startin' something over one preseason game, but I think he is the real deal:
(h/t detroit lions subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/detroitlions/comments/wmsjwo/a_friend_made_this_after_hard_knocks_heres_to_the/)
August 15th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
I'm sure Valenti and Rico will spend all week talking about PFF's rigged rating system.