How much does the loss of Countess change your expectations?
|
Sat., Sep. 1 |
vs. No. 2 Alabama |
Arlington, Texas |
L, 41-14 |
| Sat., Sep. 8 |
vs. Air Force  |
Michigan Stadium | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Sep. 15 |
vs. Massachusetts |
Michigan Stadium | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Sep. 22 |
at Notre Dame |
South Bend, Ind. | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Oct. 6 |
at Purdue * |
West Lafayette, Ind. | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Oct. 13 |
vs. Illinois - Homecoming * |
Michigan Stadium | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Oct. 20 |
vs. Michigan State * |
Michigan Stadium | TBA |
| Sat., Oct. 27 |
at Nebraska * |
Lincoln, Neb. | 7:00 p.m. CT |
| Sat., Nov. 3 |
at Minnesota * |
Minneapolis, Minn. | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 10 |
vs. Northwestern * |
Michigan Stadium | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 17 |
vs. Iowa * |
Michigan Stadium | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 24 |
at Ohio State * |
Columbus, Ohio | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Dec. 1 |
Big Ten Championship Game |
Indianapolis, Ind. | TBA |
The schedule is above. I originally thought Michigan would go 9-3 or 8-4 and that Countess would be a key piece of the defensive puzzle. The way things look now, I think that wins at ND, Nebraska, and OSU are pretty unlikely, though I thought Michigan would do well to go 1-2 in those games even before Countess went down. Also, Purdue, Illinois, and NW now seem like reasonably difficult tests. Hopefully, Richardson, Taylor, or Avery will blossom in Countess's absence. Sometimes guys grow up when they're thrown into unexpected playing time, but going on the way things appear right now, I think we might be looking at a 7-5 regular season. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:17 PM ^
The B1G sucked so much in Week 1 that I actually feel better about our chances in league than I did before Bama. The only team that looked great was Ohio
September 4th, 2012 at 3:03 PM ^
I would actually put Nebraska's performance as the most impressive of the weekend for the B1G. Southern Miss was 12-2 last season while Miami(OH) was only 4-8. Nebraska rolled over a MUCH better team than did OSU.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:25 PM ^
I wouldn't change my estimate of 9-3 because of this - Avery is very serviceable at CB and should be able to fill in nicely. I don't have the stats in front of me right now, but I believe Countess was averaging 4 total tackles per game last years and Avery has been somewhere around 3 total per game in his career here. Losing Blake Countess is a definite blow, but we're a bit deeper in the secondary now, so barring a rash of injuries back there, I think we survive it.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:47 PM ^
Might be time to throw the freshman in. Avery has show time and time again he can't stay on his feet. Get the boy some cleats.
September 5th, 2012 at 4:09 PM ^
He fell down ONCE.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:50 PM ^
September 4th, 2012 at 12:52 PM ^
I can't believe how much better I feel about the Countess injury* after reading all the optimism in this thread. I am not kidding. I was overtly depressed yesterday and it had nothing to do with 41-14. I was looking at the Countess loss as the worst possible scenario for our defense. It's not. It may be damn close, but we do have some guys that are going to get their chance now to compete and get better while helping this team win.
I do think that the loss of Countess will be tangibly noticable in several games, especially MSU. I think Maxwell is better than he showed on Friday (has a great skill set) and the loss of Blake will limit our ability to stuff the box and blitz.
My prediction for the season was 3-4 losses with a Rose Bowl birth. I figured we'd lose to 'bama and maybe even ND to start the season and likely drop at least one more along the way. I'll stick with that for now.
*feeling better from a selfish fan perspective. I still feel really bad for that kid. Hope he has a speedy recovery.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:04 PM ^
When we play MSU, that will be Maxwell's first real road game (CMU doesn't really count). I'm not sure he'll look any better than he did on Saturday.
September 4th, 2012 at 6:36 PM ^
Incorrect. We have a trip to Bloomington before Ann Arbor, but I get your point.
September 4th, 2012 at 6:51 PM ^
I would think giving "birth" to a Rose Bowl "berth" would hurt!
September 4th, 2012 at 12:59 PM ^
It doesnt change it much. Courtney Avery is Courtney Avery. Raymon Taylor and/or T-Rich need to step up, or else it is going to be a problem this year.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:02 PM ^
September 4th, 2012 at 1:03 PM ^
The loss of Countess will result in the loss of one additional game this year. It is just plain silly to believe that "it's not the player, it's the position".
That would say that if Mike Martin, David Molk, etc. had been out for all of last year M would still have won 11 games.
Jeeeez
September 4th, 2012 at 1:05 PM ^
Martin and Molk were All-Americans. Countess is probably not at that level.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:24 PM ^
I don't think this changes our expectations too much. Will it hurt to lose him? Absolutely. Will it make some games a little more difficult? Of course. But as of right now, I don't know too many teams in the B1G, if any, that have a great passing attack. Martinez had a good game against SoMiss, but I'll reserve judgment on his progressions until I see him against Wisconsin or Ohio defenses. I think we're all still pretty down on the situation, but we just need to remember that Bama is, w/o a doubt, the best team we will have on our schedule all year. Everything, as far as the schedule goes, should get easier from here.
I have enough confidence in Floyd to where he should improve on last year, and while he won't be elite, he'll be good and show flashes of great. Avery should be serviceable, and if Richardson is needed, who knows? He could be as good as Countess was last year. I know that rankings don't mean much, but he was pretty highly touted coming out of high school.
I think an 8-4 to 9-3 year is still very attainable, maybe 10-2 with a few lucky bounces.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:41 PM ^
Clearly Michigan will go 13 - 1 now.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:44 PM ^
Countess' injury only changed one expectation for me: After what I saw against Alabama, I expect Raymon Taylor to develop into a very good CB. That kid gets after it. I was really impressed with Taylor's game
September 4th, 2012 at 2:21 PM ^
September 4th, 2012 at 2:27 PM ^
I think we lose one more game than if we had Countess.
I was expecting 9 - 3 at best and 8 - 4 at worst. This now changes to 8 - 4 at best and 7 - 5 at worst.
However, as said elsewhere, there are too many variables, from how Ramon Taylor (& Courtney Avery) perform, to how healthy the team stays from this point forward.
September 5th, 2012 at 4:24 PM ^
Is 8-4 is the absolute ceiling for this team? Countess is a very nice player but he is far from reaching his ultimate potential; I don't see his injury as a season-ender. You're essentially saying that we lose to Notre Dame, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Ohio.
ND: I like our chances against the Irish, despite how well they played against Navy. Mattison is probably salivating at the opportunity to gameplan against a freshman QB -- assuming Golson continues to start.
MSU: As someone pointed out above, playing at Michigan Stadium will be Maxwell's first true road game. I don't care how good their defense is, I see that as a very winnable game, especially considering how one-dimensional their offense looks.
Nebraska: On the road makes this tough, but still. This is a team that lost to Northwestern, probably should have lost to 6-7 Ohio last year, and got absolutely hammered by Michigan. Nowhere near a lock but I can certainly see us winning that game.
Ohio: They didn't look like world beaters Saturday. Yes, Meyer is a very good coach, but who knows how long their transition will take. On the road or not, we can win this game.
GET OFF THE LEDGE, EVERYONE. Losing Countess really sucks, and nobody is content with what happened Saturday, but everything is still attainable. Take care of business week by week and we'll end up in Pasadena.
(Not a personal attack, SRK. I find your posts very insightful, I just wanted to address the "doom and gloom" portion of our fanbase.)
September 4th, 2012 at 3:06 PM ^
His loss will hurt aginst the better teams like Notre Dame, MSU, Nebraska, & OSU. It shouldn't make any difference in the rest of the schedule. I only thought we'd win 2-3 games against the likes of our better opponents mentioned above plus Alabama and maybe trip up somewhere else along the way like at Purdue or Illnois at home. It still makes sense to me that that's exactly what will happen, making us 9-3 or 8-4. It just seems now there's litlte chance of going 10-2 more than ever and even more likely now to be 8-4. 9-3 is certainly still possible, but we'll have to be sharper and pull off a few tough road games and probably a few tough homes as well (MSU & Illinois).
As far as personnel goes I didn't like the way Avery, Washington, or Demens looked. I expect them to be replaced by either Taylor or Richardson, Pipkins, and Ross by the time we hit B1G play, with Bolden also seeing significant time (not sure how long Morgan lasts).
September 4th, 2012 at 3:53 PM ^
had the one bad slip for the TD but he was fine the rest of the game. On Demens, you cant do much when you have a 300 pounder on you, there is only so much you can take of that. The DLine has to do their job and he will do his.
I do somewhat agree with QWash, he needs to show something special on Saturday
September 4th, 2012 at 3:48 PM ^
the confidence in Avery, he will do just fine. Expectations wise I still say we have a great season.
Alabama game was awufl, we know that, but IMO they use the game a huge fire under their butts and shit gets kicked into gear starting this Saturday
Team 133
September 4th, 2012 at 4:05 PM ^
Just that the younger guys present better options based on the limited action I have seen them in. Demens simply doesn't get off blocks well, Ross in the limited time I've seen him does so much better and takes better angles...just the signs of a more talented player. My critique of Avery is similar in that Taylor just looked more fluid, athletic, and able to run with recievers. I just think some of our younger guys are showing a little higher level of talent and I think our coaches will slowly start to move to the guys I mentioned into more playing time and eventually supplant the other guys as the season progresses.
September 4th, 2012 at 4:08 PM ^
The loss is huge. He was our only reliable one-on-one coverage DB and arguably the best if not most important player on defense.
The projections based on allegedly bad passing offenses on the schedule are flimsy. Before last year, UM spent three years making such offenses look all world. One reason was that we had nobody who could cover on the outside.
Sure, the current sitation is not nearly as bleak as it was for those three years. But Countes was a good player as a freshman and had stud potential coming into this year.
It's a major loss.
September 4th, 2012 at 5:50 PM ^
September 4th, 2012 at 4:37 PM ^
Floyd is our lock down corner this year. Sure it would be much better to have two of them. However, Avery can do well on the 2nd receiver for any remaining team we face - OSU being the only possible exception.
Most importantly, it does not reduce our chances against MSU and their young receiving corps at all.
We need to get Denard's head out from under the last game, and get him rolling. That is a far bigger concern right now.
September 4th, 2012 at 6:01 PM ^
the loss to bama made me change my prediction quite a bit: from undefeated to a one-loss season.
the loss of countess didn't change a thing: what fearsome passer are we going to face anyhow?
September 4th, 2012 at 6:04 PM ^
The loss of Blake certainly hurts, but the expectations of the team in terms of overall record do not change much. I was predicting 8-4 or 9-3, and I'll stick with that. I still think it is possible to get there.
September 4th, 2012 at 7:10 PM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 4:10 PM ^
He still cannot consistently hit receivers who are not wide open, and sometimes not even thenThat's not all on him. Our receivers - Gardner in particular - need to make better plays on the ball. Alabama's DBs also were fantastic at stripping the ball out at the last minute. Denard was inconsistent against Bama, but I thought he didn't play as badly as his completion percentage suggests.
September 4th, 2012 at 7:09 PM ^
I'm amazed at how many people are "expecting" 4-5 losses (or 3-4 more). You may be right, of course by the end of November. I just don't see it. Anywho, I don't see any reason why this team can't go 10-2 if things go right or at least 9-3. A Lewan serious injury would be one thing. Sucks for Blake, and sucks for the defense/team. But, this is D-1 football, he will be replaced and he happens to be replaceable by people with real game experience.
September 4th, 2012 at 11:19 PM ^
9-3 is still within reach.
September 5th, 2012 at 4:58 AM ^
Alabama - L
W - Air Force
W - Massachusetts
W - Notre Dame
W - Purdue
W - Illinois
W - Michigan State
L - Nebraska
W - Minnesota
W - Northwestern
W - Iowa
? - Ohio State*
- *In Colombus at the Horseshoe, against Braxton Miller and Urban Meyer in his first campaign, now coaching in THE GAME, smh I just don't know...
- We'll go to the B10 Championship regardless, win there in all likelihood and get another 'BCS Bowl'
- So it comes down to 9-3 ... or ... 10-2
- Much more troubling than missing double-digit wins (obviously) is the win or loss against Ohio
TL;DR This season's success hinges on the outcome of tO***SU Game -- obligatory: 'duh'
September 5th, 2012 at 4:06 PM ^
I see it the same way. I think we edge ND and MSU, but Nebraska catches us at a bad time. I think we then win until the trip to Columbus, which is a toss-up.
September 5th, 2012 at 4:42 PM ^
8-4 or 7-5
I expected 9-10 wins before :(