How Michigan Stacks Up Against Alabama According to the Computers
https://www.tiktok.com/@thatdudemjb/video/7308560342978907438
Sagarin Ranking
1. Michigan 97.55
3. Ohio State 94.83
5. Penn State 93.82
6. Alabama 92.65
SP+ Overall Rankings
1. Michigan 32.1
3. Ohio State 26.7
4. Penn State 26.0
7. Alabama 23.7
SP+ Offensive Rankings
10. Michigan 37.6
11. Alabama 37.1
25. Ohio State 34.2
26. Penn State 34.1
SP+ Defensive Rankings
1. Michigan 7.4
3. Ohio State 8.8
4. Penn State 9.5
9. Alabama 15.4
FEI Opponent-Adjusted Overall Efficiency
1. Michigan
3. Ohio State
5. Penn State
11. Alabama
FEI Opponent-Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
5. Michigan
13. Ohio State
20. Penn Sate
21. Alabama
FEI Opponent-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
4. Michigan
9. Alabama
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:38 PM ^
“
With Michigan a clear No. 1 in SP+ and facing a playoff with the No. 6, 7 and 11 teams, here are your national title odds per SP+.
Michigan 49%
Texas 25%
Alabama 17%
Washington 10%
Michigan's gonna need to underachieve (again) for this to be a particularly interesting CFP.”
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:48 PM ^
49% seems high, but really depends on whether the Alabama of yesterday or the Alabama of the first 12 weeks shows up.
I expect a tough, close game that we certainly can lose but will win...if we play at our A-game.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:51 PM ^
Alabama always shows up in Atlanta, especially against UGA. That will be the best they'll look all season.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:00 PM ^
I was listening to the SEC title game on SiriusXM and I think the UGA radio guy said that Bama has won 17 straight games in Atlanta. That's crazy.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:13 PM ^
I don't know man...they sure gave their all against UT Chatanooga, the week before the Arn Bowl!!!!
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:14 PM ^
I assume we can count on a good number of M fans in the Rose Bowl; that should help. I'd hate to play them in Georgia.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:16 AM ^
Tickets for the Michigan side were significantly more pricey this morning.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:59 PM ^
Saban with a month to prepare concerns me.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:07 PM ^
Harbaugh with a month to prepare should concern Alabama.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:13 PM ^
What are you basing that on? In the last 2 semi-final appearances when Harbaugh had a month to prepare, UM has been outscored 48-13 in the first half.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:25 PM ^
I think there's too much associated evidence to be dogmatic about that. Michigan has been not only different but also, on net, materially better each of the last two years. You could argue that is all about the evolving styles necessary to overtake OSU. I happen to take the team (players/staff) at their word when they talk about carrying additional goals and how those reshape the team year-to-year. I take reports as plausible that Michigan has been prepping for OSU and putative CFP opponents since spring.
When rooting for a team on an upswing, then more than maybe any other time as a fan, you have to believe that whatever's next can be different and better. And at least in the Big Ten this era of Michigan football is effectively defined for the extent to which its upswing is sustained.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:40 PM ^
I think in fairness Harbaugh now has some experience to draw on.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:59 PM ^
We haven’t won a bowl game since Jan 1 2016 (i.e. Harbaugh’s first year). I think it’s fair to say bowl prep and game planning has been a weak spot. Hopefully this is the year - team certainly has the talent.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:45 AM ^
those B10CG's are basically bowl games and he's 3-0 in those.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:23 AM ^
Those games happen a week after the last game of the regular season. The point is that Michigan struggles when there is a month gap between games. And this isn't just a Harbaugh thing. Michigan's bowl record going back to Bo is simply abysmal.
December 4th, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^
Welp, find a way to win this next game, and then in theory we should be golden in the NCG a week later!
December 4th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
Well bowl games of the past vs playoff games are a different animal. You can't tell me Michigan teams were mentally prepared or even cared about playing bowl games after losing to osu every year.
You can scratch the UGA game because nobody was preparing for them that year.
The TCU game you can blame on preparation. They did not look themselves at all that night.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:37 PM ^
What is he preparing for? M's recent tendencies are vanilla, almost no play action and jumbo line. This offense has so much still in the holster.
We saw Bama's best game Saturday. And thelir offense will equal or surpass it. But they don't know what's about to hit their defense.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:49 PM ^
The opposite point for Saban preparing is that Minter has a month to prepare an NFL-caliber defensive scheme to throw at a relatively inexperienced QB who couldn't nail down the starting job until several games into the season...
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:24 PM ^
The 49% odds are almost like the game with Bama is 50/50 and the title game will be a walkover.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:29 PM ^
It would mean that we're a decided favorite in both games (70% in each, for example).
I think we can do it, but wouldn't go that far.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:34 PM ^
UGA's top two offensive weapons were limited Bama didn't exactly light up the world on offense. I will never underestimate a Nick Saban team, but I'll take the Alabama of yesterday over the Alabama of the previous 15 years.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:08 AM ^
I'd happily play the Alabama of only ten days ago. A very crappy Auburn team outplayed them execpt for that miracle at the end.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:50 PM ^
I love what the SP+ numbers are showing, but there are limitations to metrics like these, most notably the sample size and lack of common opponents. We have one common opponent with Washington (MSU) and none with Texas or Bama.
What this basically says is that we did better against Big Ten competition than Bama did against the SEC, UW did against the Pac-12 and UT against the Big 12 - which is nice, but I'm unsure of how applicable this information is.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:08 PM ^
Our odds to win the whole thing are just slightly less than a coin flip - sounds like a maximally interesting CFP, with a near maximal level of unpredictability.
Beat Bama.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:18 PM ^
My problem is seeing Penn State lurking around so high up. That gives me limited confidence in the HAL 9000 computer.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:05 PM ^
Speaks to the coaching acumen of one James (“Little Game James”) Franklin. He has the talent, the players perform but the coaching gets exposed against good teams. All. The. Time.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:24 PM ^
Alabama with a month to prepare is a different factor
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:15 PM ^
Yeah. I rather play Bama with a week to prepare then a month.
December 4th, 2023 at 5:29 AM ^
I recall the offeason was full of "beat Georgia" hype. That was drilled into the team from after the TCU loss. I assume this was a lot of the motivation for some of our all Americans to stick around an extra year.
I believe being thrown into a game with the most unlikely style of team TCU, a very un-B1G team, hurt us as we likely couldn't fairly assess how we would do playing Michigan football against them until the game began.
I think Alabama plays a very similar game as Georgia. While that game scares me moreso than a Texas/Washington matchup, those two are much closer to a Big12 matchup and we will not have had much time to adjust, should we beat Alabama, from the style of game we have played to bear OSU, presumably Bama too, into a style that will match scoring prowess (let alone force the opposition to an Iowanian-slog).
We have been a great team, but we haven't adapted to the opposition except to play just enough to win*, then hangup our weapons and let the other team beat themselves. This is an amazing wash to play football, just play enough to force them into adjustments that bear turnovers. We are like Iowa with balance and are unequally stubborn and unequivocal in our response to anything the opposition has. We can play action a game or run TE slants all the way into short yardage and then dive into first downs and endzones. The issue is we don't seem to want to do that if there is any risk of it resulting in a shift in our approach. We are happier to do the least risky thing up until the point in which that has the highest risk of a loss.
If the point ever comes where we need to play to win, not to push the other team to lose, I have no expectation on what this team could do. We haven't played from behind once this season in any meaningful circumstance. That is probably the strongest statement of who this team is, and will continue to be. It is just so easy to hold past bowl/playoff experiences, the "haven't played nobody" narrative and uncertainty in a one neutral site coin-flip game into broader concern. However the fact that no one forced this team to even have to try to win* and we have faced an OSU team that I believe is on parity with us, and maybe Georgia as the most complete and we'll prepared teams in tbe NCAA this season, and we also didn't really have to do all that much more than just be Michigan and wait for two perfectly schemed turnovers says a lot.
We are experienced, patient, and talented to match the best. We also stubbornly do not change who we are since we know our coaching and patience works at every level of the game (and across as phases).
*"haven't had to try to win a game" is very reductionist and insulting to our coaches and players, who obviously have tried and succeeded with aplomb in winning football games. I mean this in the manner in which we play that we nominally can play to avoid a loss and let them try hard and punish their adjustments. I just can't put this strategy into simple nomenclature
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:40 PM ^
Can a computor compute their computor accuracy by computing the last few computing years?
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:38 PM ^
None of the top team is a cupcake.
Play physical, mistake-free game, M can definitely win it all!
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:39 PM ^
Former Michigan DT target Walter Nolen has entered the transfer portal …
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:45 PM ^
We have also recieved two flip predictions for former nose target Deyvid Palepale.
I think if they announced a Harbaugh extention it would lead to a flood to 2025 commitments.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:35 PM ^
Yes. Michigan admin -- don't blow it! Get that contract done please!
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:45 PM ^
Also .... the Michigan On3 boys just put in a flip forecast for 2024 DT David Palepale from USC to M. Kid is currently only a 3* out of PA but USC, M, and PSU were all heavy after him.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:01 PM ^
Is that the kid that got kicked out of his school (or team)?
Serious question. I don't sub to paysites to know the details and am curious.
Edit: nevermind, I remember now. It was posted here. Unless more came of it the issue was a text saying his team sucked and then lawsuits were threatened etc.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:15 PM ^
Nolen went to A&M for a reason. Doubt he comes to Ann Arbor without that reason.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:44 PM ^
Maybe the guy is independently wealthy after a couple years at atm???
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:44 PM ^
UM’s OL is a real concern.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:05 PM ^
It really is, particularly the pass protection, and Dallas Turner is a serious problem.
Bama also has talented corners. If Michigan is put in obvious passing downs it could be a rough go.
But maybe the even bigger concern for me is Alabama’s offense. Both their O-line and Milroe have come a long way since September. Milroe is very dangerous on the ground, but now he is also looking like an actual QB, which he didn’t to start the season. Michigan’s defense has obviously been great this year and have legit talent, but they’ve also only faced 1 or 2 offenses worth a damn this season. The B1G offenses were beyond awful. And the one annual juggernaut downgraded from Stroud to McCord.
Michigan is still a slight favorite and can obviously win, but they’re going to have to show up with their “A” game. And there’s been enough flaws shown to have concerns.
But can’t wait, because this group has overcome every obstacle so far.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:16 PM ^
Exactly right on all fronts. Those metrics mean next to nothing for me when you consider their talent level, growth during the season and the general assness of the B1G this year outside of UM, OSU and PSU.
Is Bama beatable? Of course. Have they looked bad at times? Absolutely. Are they still a team full of roided-up 5* dudes that when actually focused are probably the toughest out in this playoff field? For sure.
UM cannot come out with the same mentality and style they did against even OSU. JJ can't be limited to stare-down 7 yard outs after trying to power on 1st & 2nd down to a total of 3 yards. Make them defend the entire field and you have a shot. If you constrict the field for them they'll fucking maul this UM offense. You also won't beat them to edge very often. Gotta soften them in the air and then their front becomes a bit undisciplined in run downs, giving you a shot to grab a few chunks here and there.
On defense you gotta disturb Milroe with nor more than 4, spy him and hope he makes mistakes through the air.
This is by far the toughest test they'll face. This isn't goofy PSU or wannabe tough OSU. Bama coaches won't beat themselves and Bama can run and thump all day long. Gotta make them think, put them in points of decision rather than pin their ears back.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:32 PM ^
Eh, watching that Bama-Georgia game I was kind of amazed how many receivers Milroe simply didn't see. His passing game is basically "chuck it deep". I don't think he sees the field or reads defenses particularly well. Which is not great when going against a team that Marvin Harrison said threw the most exotic coverages he'd ever seen.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:37 PM ^
They might have the best safety in the country as a true freshman.
But yes it's going to be about the lines and what DL disrupts the other QB the most. Our line is good at pressure but getting home is still a difficulty vs real teams. Milroe is not like OSU or PSU's sad QB he can run.
This is not peak Bama but this is not peak UM running game or OL either. Maybe peak defense at least.
The demons of running QBs have haunted UM since McNabb. Troy Smith says hi.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:23 PM ^
To me the key for Michigan's defense is keeping Milroe in the pocket. If he beats you with his arm, you tip your cap to him, but you can't let him beat you with his legs. Dline needs to stay in their lanes and keep him in the pocket.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:37 PM ^
I'm hoping M's D-Line is up to the task. The D-Line is one of our big strengths this year. We have pure strength up the middle and a variety of threats on the ends. Also, we've got speedy LBs and Mikey running down the QB.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:40 PM ^
Well, one way to attack Milroe is to make him think too much in the pocket by offering confusing and disguised coverages. For all his physical talent and running ability, he is still a first year college quarterback, which, if you recall is what JJ was in his first playoff appearance against Georgia.
December 4th, 2023 at 1:12 AM ^
Bama also has talented corners. If Michigan is put in obvious passing downs it could be a rough go.
Ha! May I remind you good sir that Michigan does not throw to wide receivers. Thus, Bama's strength at corner will be well mitigated.
December 4th, 2023 at 1:35 AM ^
:-) :-)
You nailed it!!
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:10 PM ^
Having a month to heal up and get the new starting 5 more comfortable as a unit should lead to much improvement compared to Iowa. I think the current unit is already good in the run game - being so run-heavy late vs. OSU is probably why we didn't see the same protection issues in that game.
On a side note - I feel that while 'Bama may be the hardest of the 3 other CFP contenders, that given a choice I would much rather M get the extended time to prepare for the dynamic dual-threat QB - something we really haven't faced this year. I know people are noting that Saban can do his prep as well, but I feel that M is a much more versatile offense than years past so it won't be as simple a task as UGA had in 2021.
While not easy I think both UW and UT should be easier to prep for on short turnaround. -- UW seems like a souped up Maryland with (much) better receivers, and UT seems like a slightly less explosive OSU (with a worse defense)