How good can Jake Rudock be?

Submitted by massblue on

There was a diary several days ago about how productive Rudock or Morris could be. It compared Jake to other UM's senior QBs of the past.  I am not sure that is very useful because so many factors have to be taken into account.  It is very difficult to predict either QBs' likely performance but more so for Morris because we have so little evidence.  However, we have a lot of evidence about Jake

The best way to predict how Jake is likely to perform is to look at this own progress: Here are his numbers from the last two years:

2013: games: 13  Effic: 126.5  A/C/Int: 204-346-13  %: 59.0  Yrds: 2383  TD: 18  Av: 183.3 

2014: games: 12  Effic: 133.5  A/C/Int: 213-345-5  %: 61.7  Yrds: 2436  TD: 16  Av: 203.

 

Jake made substantial improvements.  Still, I cannot understand why he was benched.  If he continues the same improvement (especially under Harbaugh), he should be 2nd All BIG next year and better than most QBs, including the 2014 version of Conner Cook.  

Here are the figures for Conner:

2013: 14  135.53  223-380-6   58.7 2755  22  196.8

2014: 13  149.4    212-365-8  58.1  3214  24  247.2 

I understand that Conner had good supporting casts both years, but I think UM's offensive supporting cast of 2015 is not that much below MSU's cast of 2013/2014. 

If he makes the same progress as he did from 2013 to 2014, we should see a significant improvement in our offensive output.  May be 10 wins.

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Jake Rudock

Ronnie Kaye

July 4th, 2015 at 2:46 PM ^

I think the learning curve here is being understated. Rudock has one month to work with his new coaches and less than three months to work with his new teammates before the opener. If you're expecting him to be better than Connor Cook was last season, you're probably in for a big letdown.

Joined: 05/09/2015

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uminks

July 5th, 2015 at 1:21 AM ^

Ruddock is not a good as Russel, but I think our chances for a decent season under Harbaugh's first year have improved once Ruddock decided to head to Michigan. I won't rule out Morris until the last week in August but odds are is that the experience of Ruddock will win out.  I guess IA wanted more big plays than consistency! It will help Michigan if Ruddock can bring more consistency and less turnovers to the QB position.

Joined: 11/10/2009

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Blue Carcajou

July 4th, 2015 at 2:48 PM ^

Also, Harbaugh's M.O. is entering at dire times in the face of seismic skeptism and somehow wins the games he shouldn't with players who've been written off.

I fully expect this year to be no different. 

Be it Rudock or someone we're not expecting... "Buckle up" because we're in for quite a ride while the competition gets blind-sided and side-swiped. 

Joined: 08/10/2013

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ericcarbs

July 4th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^

The diary also explained that most RS senior QBs regress from their senior year

. Let's say he is the same QB from last year due to Harbaugh. That is an above average QB who won't win or lose games.

Meanwhile Morris ceiling is incredibly high. If he can eliminate errant throws, then he could be a game changer. So our floor went up went rudock for the season but our ceiling is the same with Morris. That's just my two cents though.

Joined: 08/20/2013

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Rodriguesqe

July 4th, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^

I recall a diary predicting Gardner would put up Heisman level performances going into his first full year starting. Didn't quite happen, if I recall.

The Harbaugh difference happened immidiately at SF, even when the preseason was shortened due to the lockout, and new CBA rules really curbed practice time. Harbaugh will get this thing going quickly, but I wouldn't guess the form it takes.

Joined: 12/29/2013

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massblue

July 4th, 2015 at 3:59 PM ^

In college 25% of your teams is turned over each year, which far more than NFL.  It is much easier at a school like UM with a coach like JH to turn the program around than almost any NFL team.  He can recruit above average players.  It will be more difficult for, say, UConn, to turn into a powerhouse, because then cannot recruit.  In NFL you can get 2-3 real contributors each year, in college you can get 6-7 contributors each year.

Joined: 08/15/2009

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Chaz_Smash

July 4th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^

Any Gardner retrospective has to begin with his first game as starter at Minnesota. There was that play where he rolled right, reversed field, eluded the rush and dropped a 55-yard laser right into Dileo's chest.

That's who Devin Gardner was. For some reason, Hoke tried to turn him into a pocket passer who rarely tried to run and only threw on 3rd-and-11 after two power running plays behind a weak OL went nowhere. So sad, and he took a beating by staying in the pocket.

Joined: 01/08/2011

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EGD

July 4th, 2015 at 4:04 PM ^

Gardner is 6'5" and has a strong, accurate arm. He could have been a good pocket passer, IMO. But no pocket passer can be successful when they are constantly under pressure and have no running game.

Hoke never should have abandoned the spread at M. Had he hired a spread OC when he took over and built on RichRod's machine, rather than trying to bring back Lloydball, I think the last four years would have gone very differently.

Joined: 09/16/2009

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Hail Harbo

July 4th, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^

Did you ever stop and think that perhaps it was Gardner that wanted to evolve more towards a pro style QB?  After all he could have stayed at WR in 2013 and then transfered to Arizona for his 5th year.

Joined: 06/18/2015

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alum96

July 4th, 2015 at 3:19 PM ^

Yards per attempt should be included in the OP.  It is a lot easier to have a high completion % when you are doing Joey Harrington NFL dump offs of 5-7 yards all day and your wide receiver tacks on 2-3 YAC.

I am not expecting monster improvements because JH wont have a lot of time with rudock.  He just got to campus and until August camp he really wont get hands on tutoring.  So its 1 month before the Utah game -- difficult to expect a big jump in 4 weeks.  Maybe by late October when he has another few months under his belt you see it but by then you have just a few games left.

Whatever the case he is going to feel like a sea change for UM fans used to turnover machines who lack accuracy.

Also I'd be cautious on just expecting linear year over year improvement.  His INTs dropped to 5 ... so "improvement" in that regard may be 2-3.  Which would be very unlikely if he is asked to do more here than in Iowa.  Also I dont understand some of the comments above about how he wont be in running a run oriented offense here like he was "hampered" with at Iowa.  JH is all about a run oriented offense.   Now it wont be the vanilla type of Iowa but it will be run oriented... as long as the OL can run block.

If he can throw for 2500ish yards with a YPA of 8+ and under 8 INTs with a completion% >60% I think we should all be very pleased.  Hopefully that reverse engineers to about 20 TDs.

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EGD

July 4th, 2015 at 4:23 PM ^

I think the performance of M's defense will go a long way toward determining how much Rudock is asked to do this season. If the defense is stifling people and forcing turnovers, then M will probably only need the offense to control the ball and convert short fields in order to win games. If the defense winds up being more like the "good, not great" units we've had the past couple seasons, then Rudock will probably have to create more and could lead to both more yards and more INTs.

Joined: 09/16/2009

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Chaz_Smash

July 4th, 2015 at 3:41 PM ^

My feeling is both guys will end up playing this year. I think you can throw out Shane's history, because that offense was just so misguided. Harbaugh will want to take advantage of his running ability. Plus, there has to be some positive potential in that cannon arm.

Joined: 01/08/2011

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turtleboy

July 4th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^

How good can he be? Well the 3rd string qb at OSU beat Wiscy 59-0 in his first college start last year, beat Alabama in his second start and won the national championship in his third, so I suppose the sky is the limit. He could win the Heisman and a natty this year, in theory. How good he will be largely depends on coaching, O Line play, and receivers not routinely dropping balls that hit both their hands over and over again like in the spring game. My guess is the o line will take a large step forward, like our defense did transitioning from Rod to Hoke, and with a solid running game, and at least average pass pro, Rudock will be somewhere on the All B1G list. Edit: my basis for the guess on OLine improvement largely comes from the change in staff. Drevno is one of the best offensive line coaches in any league, and our previous staff just, well, wasn't. He helped establish Stanford as the manball juggernaut that it is today, and helped sanfran put 3 linemen in the pro bowl. The year after he left sanfrans offense completely imploded. Plus we basically return everybody, and our line has been underperforming for years. I think success will breed more success.

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goblue16

July 4th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^

A good run game would help both qbs. The run game has been atrocious ever since Denard left. If the oline and the rbs do their job the offense should be fantastic

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Tyrone Biggums

July 4th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^

I wouldn't sleep on Gentry, he's had some good weight gain and reportedly showed up on campus at 245ish. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the 3 deep and Harbaugh & Co. incorporate some run/pass option packages specifically for him similar to how Oklahoma used Bell.

Joined: 01/16/2013

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Bambi

July 4th, 2015 at 9:12 PM ^

Unless he's the best QB on roster it makes no sense not to redshirt him. It's a well documented fact that he's a raw prospect who needs development considering his HS level of competition. Giving him a year to learn and develop and still allowing him 4 years to play is by far the best decision.

We've seen how not allowing a kid to redshirt has came back to bite us with Morris. If he were a sophomore right now the prognosis on him would be a lot more optimistic knowing he has two years left instead of one.

True freshman QBs are also generally at best average. Seeing how Gentry is so raw, I would be shocked if he were anywhere near average as a true freshman.

If Gentry plays this year he's going to be the best QB ever, it means awful things for our offense, or our coach made a bad decision to waste a redshirt.

Joined: 10/12/2013

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Bambi

July 5th, 2015 at 8:47 AM ^

Well according to a diary done by the Mathlete a few years ago, even Henne was below average as a freshman looking at advanced metrics.

Even if you ignore that and look at Henne's pure stats, he was above average but without a doubt the exception to the rule. To expect that of Gentry would be foolish.

I'm on my phone but I'll put the link to the diary below. He explains why Henne is below average in the comments

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/brief-history-true-freshman-quarterbacks

Joined: 10/12/2013

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the noid

July 4th, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^

Personally I hope there is an awesome competition but I hope Shane ends up the winner, living up to his potential under Harbaugh. 

 

Joined: 02/12/2013

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CoverZero

July 4th, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^

Jake could be as good as Brian Griese was in 97 for sure.... Statswise for sure...Leadership wise, we will see. 

If he is consistent and protects that football... the Defense is going to be very good if Peppers stays healthy.

I see a big year coming.  The pundits are ranking Michigan about 35th, I see top 20...

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gmgoblue1205

July 4th, 2015 at 6:05 PM ^

I think Rudock will start but Shane will have some PT in mop up duty or somebody got hurt and even stink up the joint. But Rudock IMO will do good only if the OL do there job.

Joined: 12/06/2014

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UMgradMSUdad

July 4th, 2015 at 9:08 PM ^

As to why Rudock was benched, BHGP writer Patrick Vint summed up backup QB CJ Beathard's views regarding Iowa's then upcoming bowl game as follows:

"That's about as obvious as it gets: Either play me in January or watch me walk away."

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/football/2014/12/23/7439439/c-j-beathard-transfer-news-iowa-hawkeyes-taxslayer-bowl

Ferentz started Rudock in the bowl game, but alternated QBs throughout the game.  Up until that point in the season, Rudock had been the starter, but Beathard did play when Rudock was injured during their game at Pitt, leading Iowa to a come from behind victory and also started the following week in a victory over Purdue. Pitt wasn't exactly a powerhouse during this portion of the season, going on the next week to lose at home to the Akron Zips 21-10.  And obviously, beating Purdue last year wasn't all that difficult.

Once he recovered from his injury, Rudock went back to the starting role. Still, during a lackluster season that produced fewer wins than most fans were expecting, there was quite a bit of fan buzz wanting a change at QB.

The bowl game was a disaster for Iowa, and Beathard did lead the team to more points than Rudock, but neither the Iowa offence nor defense really distinguished itself in that game no matter who was playing.  

What came after the game was even weirder.  For the first time anyone could remember, Ferentz released a depth chart before spring practice started.  He had Beathard listed as the starter. Soon after there were rumors of a QB transfer, but this time instead of Beathard it was Rudock who was being talked about, and as we all know, the two year Iowa starter is now a Michigan Wolverine.

 

 

 

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UMgradMSUdad

July 5th, 2015 at 1:59 AM ^

Yeah, it's kind of annoying to see people on a Michigan blog essentially repeating the RCMB nonsense about getting Iowa's castoff, 2nd stringer QB.  Rudock was the starter for two years.  When the backup and his father started making noise about transferring, Ferentz instituted this bizarre 2 QB system for the bowl game where they alternated series. Iowa got blown out of that game to the point it was over by halftime.  Each Iowa QB led the team to one TD in the first 3 quarters.  Beathard did lead the team to two more TDs in the last two Iowa offensive series of the game, late in the 4th quarter.  Fans clamoring for Beathard to start felt they were vindicated; most more objective observers realize he did most of his damage at the tail end of a blowout loss when the other team was playing prevent defense and bringing in young players for experience. Beathard might very well have a higher upside than Rudock and might be the better QB going forward.  We don't even know if Rudock will beat out the competition for starter at Michigan.  But in my book he's a welcome addition to throw into the mix, and I think we're lucky as hell to get him.

 

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