Harbaugh ranked by CBS as #23 Power Five Coach
Behind Mark Stoops and Herm Edwards and one spot in front of his protege, David Shaw. Not like their opinion matters that much, but broached a topic I actually found interesting.
I personally think this is how the rankings should go:
Top Tier (Won multiple championships, not reliant on the play of a single transcendent player)
#1 - Saban - He's daddy
#2 - Dabo - Step daddy
Second Tier (Proven they can get the job done when everything is clicking)
#3 - Jimbo Fisher - He won a national championship with FSU, has built Texas A&M into a legit contender and is a hell of a recruiter.
#4 - Ed Orgeron - We're only two years separated from their title run. Yes, he had Burrow, a stacked team, and Brady, but someone had to recruit and hire those players and coaches (see what I did there)?
Third Tier (Knocking at the door)
#5 - Kirby Smart - Was very close to winning a title against Alabama. He recruits as well as anyone and has to face Alabama every year.
#6 - Ryan Day - He's taken a Ferrari and...well drove it. Basically the same resume as Kirby Smart (been to a title game, great recruiter) except he doesn't have the best coach ever breathing down his neck.
#7 - Lincoln Riley - He's a Heisman making machine, recruits at an elite level and always has Oklahoma in the conversation. No playoff wins though.
#8 - Brian Kelly - Don't think Kelly is that much better than Harbaugh tbh (solid recruiter, has major deficiencies) but credit for the two playoff births, even if they skate through the regular season.
Fourth Tier (Doing more with less)
#9 - Paul Chryst - Wisconsin has been the most consistently great but not elite team for the longest time. Taking into consideration his meh recruiting, that level of consistency is impressive.
#10 - Mack Brown - He's made UNC a contender for the ACC and has proven to be a good recruiter.
#11 - Matt Campbell - The hot kid on the block. Need to see more consistency before he can jump past the two above but he has certainly shown he can hang with the big boys.
#12 - Pat Fitzgerald - He's basically Matt Campbell if Campbell proves he can only contend every other year. Consistency is hard with less talent but Fitz's ability to coach up teams is commendable.
#13 - Kirk Ferentz - See above. Loss of brownie points for running an alleged racist team environment.
Fifth Tier (The good isn't good enough group)
#13 - Mario Cristobal
#14 - James Franklin
#15 - Jim Harbaugh
#16 - Dan Mullen
You could honestly rank all these guys in different orders and I could understand the argument for them. All these guys have BMWs but drive them like Honda's. Sure, going 75 MPH is cool, but the expectation is you should be going 90.
Interested to see how the board treats these rankings. Is it based on accomplishment or what you've done for me recently? I obviously weighted championships and playoff appearances higher than this guy is up and coming, have you seen his recruiting classes?!
As a little side note: I think Harbaugh started in the 4th Tier at Stanford, briefly graduated to the 3rd Tier before bolting to the NFL, and then downgraded to 5th Tier during his time at Michigan.
Early-UM tenure Harbaugh was arguably 3rd tier, IMO. Lower end, but arguable. Going from 3rd tier to 5th tier sounds bad but for a place like UM I don't see how our coach would ever land in 4th tier.
What Harbaugh did at Stanford was remarkable. He took that program from terrible to a Top 10ish team using mostly three-star players. He just hasn't replicated that success at Michigan.
I'm not sure that's right, at least not if Orgeron is second tier.
Ask yourself: if you were hiring a coach today, and you had your pick of 2021 Ed Orgeron or 2015 Jim Harbaugh, who would you hire? I think it's Harbaugh, and not particularly close.
Sorry, I still think championships matter. It was also one of the most impressive championship runs in recent memory, going through #9 Texas, #7 Florida, #9 Auburn, #2 Alabama, #4 Georgia, and OU and Clemson in the playoffs. Coach O's record at LSU after his title was 40-9.
Harbaugh's best year at Stanford, they beat #13 Arizona and #12 Virginia Tech and got creamed by #4 Oregon. His combined record at the end of his Stanford tenure was 29-21 (admittedly, he took over a much worse program, but also played in a much easier conference).
I get that the perception is that the 2019 LSU team was a fluke but you have to give credit where it is due. He recruited those players. He hired those coaches. He won those games.
Look, i'm a Harbaugh fan, even amidst all the hot seat talk but most hyped up coach doesn't = best coach. Just because someone is a hot name and a fast riser doesn't mean they are better than more accomplished coaches. Exactly the reason why I wasn't sold on hiring Matt Campbell.
If you were hiring a coach today wouldn't you be comparing 2021 Harbaugh vs. 2021 Orgeron???
That is not even close. You would take Orgeron in a heart beat.
I think anything after the third tier gets pretty subjective. Harbaugh definitely is below the third tier though.
I agree with this. What's the difference between Schiano and Harbaugh for example? After a certain point, it becomes personal preference.
23 seems about right. Can't beat better teams, beats similar teams about half the time or slightly less, and pretty much always beats up on the worse teams. There are a lot of coaches that can do that.
Agree Stringer. 23 is about right for the reasons you mentioned.
Sad that’s where the football program is at in year 7.
Year 7? Excluding the occasional outlier we've been there since 2005.
I mean, its a fun conversation I guess. Its also interesting to look at these and think that JH could be way higher if it wasn't for a few bad breaks. I know good coaches overcome, but: a spot, a dropped INT, missed tackle, hit an open receiver.... If one or more of those simple things go his way, who knows?
And if he loses to Army in 2019, follows up the Wisconsin debacle with a loss to Iowa and closes that season 6-6 or worse he could be way lower or completely off the board (fired).
He's gotten some bad breaks over the years, but he's also caught some breaks as well. It's football.
You are spot on. All the apologists want to highlight all the bad breaks that go against Harbaugh and always overlook the close plays that went our way.
Like you said, it's football, and someone else once said something about good luck is when planning and preparation meet opportunity, or something like that.
Sure, but you can play the "What if" game the other way too. I know it is more popular for fans to whine about bad luck as opposed to bragging about good luck they received, but consider the following:
- In 2015, Michigan had three games decided on the last play of regulation (MSU, Indiana and Minnesota). Yes, they blew one in spectacular fashion. But they were also pretty damn fortunate to win the other two....especially the Minnesota game where the Gophers mismanaged the clock on their last two plays
- 2016, Michigan is losing to Colorado in the third quarter after getting worked by Sefo Liufau before he leaves with an injury. Colorado doesn't score another point after putting 28 points on Michigan (21 offensively) in the first 31 minutes of game-time.
- 2017 - Indiana (again). Michigan blows a 10 point lead in the final 3:27 yet survives in OT
- 2019 Army and 2020 Rutgers both missed FG's on what would have been the final play of the game to win it
I'm not bringing this up to argue if Harbaugh has been the victim of bad luck more so than the receiver of good. I would agree that it has seemed most of the bad seems to have come in bigger games, but Michigan was a decent to heavy favorite of the 6 games I just listed and they were fortunate to come out of those with a victory.
With respect to three things you pointed out (spot, tackle, dropped INT and I added a dumb punt play too) lets talk about them in more detail:
2016 OSU: Michigan decides to start a QB with a broken bone that is clearly effecting him because they have no confidence in the backup. In a game where OSU scores 10 offensive points in regulation that is still good enough to make it to OT (should have lost by 14+ with that output). On the play before the spot, Michigan has Curtis Samuel (I think?) surrounded for a huge loss on 3rd down but a -4 turns into a +9 and the rest is history.
2015 MSU: With 9 seconds left, Harbaugh decides to send out 2 gunners when MSU has 11 guys near the line of scrimmage. No one thought to give the punter a primer at any point on disaster mitigation (just fall on the f'ing ball) or considered just having Rudock roll out on 4th down, throw the ball down the field as far as he could so Michigan didn't have to punt and risk a block or disaster.
2016 FSU: Michigan has a first and goal at the one in the first quarter and can't find the end zone. Offensively, they do not find the end zone in the (checks notes) first 55 MINUTES of game time. Yet, everyone gets upset that one of the hardest working guys on the team misses one tackle on a kickoff after that.
2017 OSU: Michigan knocks out OSU's starting QB but allows a cold backup to go 6 of 7 for 94 yards. Meanwhile, a QB that had been with the program for 3 years on Michigan's side goes 17-32 for 195 with 1 TD and 1 INT. Haskins finishes the game with yards/attempt at 13.4. O'Korn is...6.1. Not terrible, but not even half of what Haskins/OSU did.
For the 4 games listed, in the 16 quarters of regulation, Michigan's offense scored 86 points (I took out a pick 6). In this day and age, 21.5 points a game of offense does....not....cut....it. I am not saying the OP thinks all of Michigan's issues boil down to "luck" but maybe they could get a bit luckier if they scored a few more points.
Completely agree. I guess my point more so was that if those things did go his way, maybe the following plays/games are vastly different as momentum would/could have been off the charts. Plus, no one would give a shit about those other games had the OSU games went his way.
That's a really good post Brian Griese. Really, really good.
100% agree.
He’s not going to wow you with huge stats. He is just a solid thread manager that gets results.
Thanks for the laugh. I am sure the real Brian Griese would find that funny as well.
So, you found his post to be funny, right Brian?
At this point, I'd take Brian Griese as the starting QB.
This.
Griese obviously knew how to beat Leaf, and now he has been waiting in the wings to be a Michigan football gameday historian.
This is a cutting analysis of the deficiencies in the Harbaugh era. I really wanted the coach to succeed. The team has not succeeded. Harbaugh is ultimately responsible.
A few things...
That 2016 Colorado game, I thought, was in the process of being taken over by Michigan when Liufau got hurt. CU opened up quickly, really fast, in the 1st quarter and kind of shell-shocked UM. But midway through the 2nd, Michigan was taking over. CU had gone 3&out several times before the half. One quick (long) pass later and they had another TD on broken coverage early in the third, but Michigan essentially had control by that point. The injury certainly helped Michigan's cause, but I think they still would have won that game.
The 2016 OSU game was one of Harbaugh's better coached affairs. He took a team into the snake pit with an injured QB that couldn't throw the ball 20 yards downfield, and almost won it. In hindsight, looking at the state of Speight's throwing arm, Michigan had no business being in that game. The fact that they should have won it anyway is a testament to coaching.
The Orange Bowl against FSU was, IMHO, the finest game JH has ever coached. They lost a Heisman FINALIST at the last possible moment before the game and had to defensively adjust to a true freshman in his place. Then, on a drive relatively early in the game, they lost an All-American TE and had to adjust the offensive game plan. That they came back from all of that, and took the lead with ~40 seconds left, is another testament to coaching.
What has happened since then? IMO, he hasn't been the same coach...
Colorado ended up a top 10 team that year so then doing well against us isn’t surprising. Us being a favorite was solely because it was early in the season. Michigan was also winning when Liufau went down.
I might have put Mack Brown a little higher, but it'd be a hard explanation. He had a run at Texas that wasn't quite good enough, but it was better than UNC is seeing, so far.
As for Harbaugh, I would have put him in the second tier through 2017. But since then he's been dropping quickly. Not sure that, given last year's clusterfuck, I'd have him inside the top 25 today.
His run at Texas wasn't quite good enough? He won a national championship (and basically ended the USC dynasty), played for another during which Colt McCoy got injured early on, and had 3 other top 5 finishes. I know things fell apart for him late at Texas but how have they done since then? Not so hot. Meanwhile he's got UNC playing better than they ever have. He's an elite coach IMO.
Not gonna argue! Said I'd have him higher on the list... To answer your question, that "things fell apart" period is where my thought comes from. To be sure, if they hadn't fell apart, he'd still be at Texas and solidly inside the Top 5.
I honestly totally forgot he coached that Texas team with Young. I might actually put him on the lower end of tier two. He technically fits the criteria, winning a championship with a transcendent star and is now making UNC a contender.
Wasn't quite good enough? He won arguably the greatest national title game ever played, against one of the most dominant dynasties we've ever seen in the game.
I'll definitely concede that after Colt McCoy went down in the national title game against Bama, things started to regress for him, but he certainly had one hell of a run prior to that point.
That UM vs UT Rose Bowl the year prior was a pretty darn good game as well. UT couldn't handle Braylon Edwards and UM couldn't tackle V Young.
Harbaugh ranked by CBS as #23 Power Five Coach
That may not sound that bad, but there are only 65 P5 football teams. Considering UM's considerable resources, large fan base, largest stadium, payroll, and recruiting rankings I think that's a pretty poor ranking. There's no reason to be outside the top 15. Here's to hoping JH can turn this thing around and start beating relevant teams again.
75? I would be ecstatic with going 75, we're going 50 in the fast lane.
Mack Brown should be higher and should be in the 2nd tier. Everyone says he underachieved at Texas and yet the program did squat in the 15 years prior to his hire and since his departure. Just as we argue it might not be the coaches, but something at Michigan, that prevents big-time success the same logic applies at Texas. He's also won big twice at UNC--both before and after his Texas stint. He might be more of a CEO coach, but he's damn good at it.
I like Orgeron (the firing of Canada immediately after realizing it wasn't a fit is something very, very few coaches do), but I think he's got to have something more than a flash in the pan season to get to tier 2.
Totally agree about putting Brown in the 2nd Tier. I totally forgot he coached that Texas championship team.
You might be right but there are fewer than 10 of those guys, and maybe fewer than 5, I'd rather have instead of Harbaugh.
Well a 2021 National Championship should move him right up the list
It's nice to be nominated
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Orgeron gets way too much credit for one year at LSU where everything good happened at once. He was basically a failure at Ole Miss at USC. Their 5-5 record in 2020 is much more indicative of his lifetime coaching record and acumen, in my opinion. I would be pretty surprised if he won the SEC, let alone the CFP, again at LSU.
Brian Kelly probably doesn't get enough credit, since everyone assumes winning at Notre Dame is easy (it's not) and he hasn't won a national championship. But he has had success at multiple schools at multiple levels, and been at Notre Dame long enough to prove that BCS/CFP level seasons aren't just a fluke.
Day, Riley, and even Swinney are all probably really good coaches who could win anywhere, but it's hard to confirm since they've only been assistants and head coaches at once school, where they took over pretty well-running operations (more Riley and Day, since Swinney did build Clemson up himself).
Like I wrote in the post, maybe Orgeron got lucky but someone had to recruit and hire the coaches and players that carried him to a title. He has to get credit for blasting Clemson, Alabama, and everyone else. Maybe he isn't a good X's and O's coach and maybe he got lucky with his hires but he could also be a master motivator, talent evaluator, and CEO.
I'd be curious to see how Day handles going into a new gig and having to build a program from the ground up. As the OP said, he was essentially handed the keys to a Ferrari and tasked solely with not crashing it into a wall. Which to his credit, he's done the exact opposite of. But all the talent, the schemes, the resources, the culture, all of that was already in place when he was given the keys to the kingdom. He didn't have to build any of it himself. He's just kept it going.
The evidence so far seems to suggest he's a great coach in his own right. I'm not saying he definitely isn't. I'm just curious how he'd do if he walked into a genuine rebuilding project. Would he have that team where OSU is now, within three to five years?
I think the next year or two will actually be pretty defining for him. He had the luxury of coaching Justin Fields, probably the best OSU QB prospect ever and one of the best QB prospects of all time. He has talent in the room but no one near the talent level of Fields. Running back room is a big question mark and the defense regressed when he lost two other transcendent talents in Chase Young and Jeff Okudah.
If he blasts through the BIG 10 and does well in the playoffs with a Freshman QB with no experience, a running back room with no clear leader (not because they are all so good) and a defense that is lacking a well established star (no Young, Okudah, or Wade level returner), then I will give him his due.
That 2019 OSU team was absolutely stacked and if it was coached by Urban, I think they would have won the championship over LSU. Think about all the star players they had. Fields, Dobbins, Olave, Young, Okudah, Wade. They won't have anywhere near that talent until maybe 2023 when Ewers, Henderson, and all those 5* receivers are running the show.
I'll agree that the jury is still out on Day. Basically he has been a head coach for a season and a half with last years schedule. But he didn't walk into the position with a scheme handed to him. The offensive scheme was changing at OSU from the Urban Meyer spread to a completely different style of spread. Those changes were happening because Day was the co-OC and implemented that scheme. Urban Meyer could never bring in the volume of top rated WR's that Day has, and it's because Day brought a pro-style spread that utilizes the whole field, and even with a logjam at the position the guys that rise to the top for playing time are going to shine.
I agree with you on the rest of the post though...and we won't know what would happen had the guy walked into a rebuilding team like say Miami or FSU.
I hate to say this but I'll say it anyway. Ryan Day is who we thought Jim Harbaugh was. Jim was going to be the quarterback "whisperer" and all of the best QB's were going to be begging to play for him. Jim was going to build a juggernaut, pro-style, offense. Sadly, Jim didn't do that but Day has.
We can only hope that some NFL team will offer Day an ungodly amount of money and get him out of Columbus.
After Jim leaves, let's find our own "Ryan Day".
ehh, coach o is way too high, imo. he's purple and gold gene chizik. saban and dabo are a tier alone. then pick an order for smart, riley, day, jimbo and brian kelley.
Agree except I'd kick Kelly out of that next group. Day hasn't done it for long, but looks good so far. Riley's Oklahoma teams have at least shown up in the playoffs, unlike ND. And Jimbo has the national championship and A&M looking decent.
Agreed re: Coach O. He has a way to go to prove that his 2019 success is sustainable, IMO.
Orgeron is Cajun Hoke, only with better physical talent at his disposal.
Yeah, I know people spent last year talking about how all the Coach O haters were wrong, but I think the next 2-3 years will show the Coach O always is who we thought he was: good recruiter, good motivator, meh head coach.
There are not 22 coaches I'd rather have instead of Harbaugh.