Halfway point in the season-Comparing this year to last year
Not talking about statistics as those can be deceiving. I basically am just looking for opinions on how you feel we compare with last year’s team as we are at the midpoint in the season. My opinions:
QB: Slight edge 2022.
-Cade was great last year and JJ still has a long way to go to prove himself, but the ceiling is definitely higher and he has played outstanding.
RB: Slight edge 2021.
-This is close since Corum has been amazing so far, but Haskins and Corum is probably a slightly better duo than Corum and Edwards.
WR/TE: Slight edge 2022.
-Missing Eric All makes this one close, but getting back Ronnie Bell gives this year the slight edge.
OL: Even.
-Both years the OL has been great.
DL: Even?
-That feels like a major win considering who we lost, but the DL has been outstanding so far.
LB: Edge 2021.
-Room for growth but we miss NHG and Colson is still learning.
Secondary: Even?
-Again, after losing Dax Hill you would think we would take a step back, but Sainristil has really been a great find.
Overall I feel like we are roughly the same caliber as last season, and that ain’t bad. Obviously a big test this weekend though.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:27 PM ^
I'd say this is reasonable overall, tho I have some slight disagreements (secondary seems better overall to me, for instance). The one area where I most strongly disagree is QB. Seems clear JJ is at a level Cade never reached. So much so that every bad throw--which are few and far between--becomes this big cause for discussion. Meanwhile he's the most accurate passer in the entire country and, while perhaps not at the Bryce Young level just yet, clearly one of the better QBs nationally. He can simply do so many things that Cade couldn't do, and that very few college QBs can do. I always liked and defended Cade, but it's time to admit how good JJ already is, with a tantalizing ceiling that has yet to be reached
October 11th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
This got me thinking, has any team ever made the playoffs with a QB who threw for less than 16TD’s?
October 11th, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
Well, this year that won’t be the case because JJ is throwing more than 16 TDs.
Go Blue!
October 12th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
I don’t know how to format this on my phone, but I’m going to try to attach a graph I made … it basically shows the frequency at which Big Ten QBs throw TDs and INTs, in terms of “passes per TD” and “passes per INT”. For example, CJ Stroud is throwing for a TD every seven pass attempts, and throws a pick once every 55-ish attempts.
It’s clear this far in the season that JJ is the most INT-averse QB in the conference, while racking up TDs at a good clip. Also, Iowa is downright allergic to the endzone.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:36 AM ^
Kelly Bryant in 2017 threw 13 touchdown passes all year. He threw a pick six and no touchdowns in their 24-6 first round loss to Alabama.
I admit I didn't look very hard, but I think he (and Cade) are the only ones with less than 16 who weren't backups for most of the season.
October 11th, 2022 at 8:05 PM ^
Cade is the best QB we have had since Henne. Denard was a fabulous running QB and Jake had a fantastic finish to his season but it is true. That is near 15 years. That being said it is hard to believe we are replacing him. Cant we slide Cade in right after Jake for 3 years? JJ is fantastic and has Henson-potential. Its good to have this much talent at QB again.
I will never put Cade down to lift JJ up though. That is just dumb and lazy.
October 11th, 2022 at 8:28 PM ^
I don’t know if you’re referring to me as putting Cade down. It was a real question. Meaning it’s pretty impressive to make the playoffs with QB play that isn’t exact explosive. Even Bama’s game manager QB’s had like 30 something touchdowns any given year.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:53 PM ^
You just said Cade is a better QB than Denard Robinson and Jake Rudock and people actually upvoted this?
What possible metric could you be using to judge Cade as a better QB then those 2?
October 12th, 2022 at 12:35 AM ^
Big ten championships. Playoff appearances. The Games won.
Not saying Cade is better than either, just highlighting his credentials.
October 12th, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
Citing team accomplishes as a metric when one of those QB's played with one half of team isn't exactly a fair metric.
October 12th, 2022 at 11:11 PM ^
Better passer than Denard, better decisions and pocket presence than Jake.
October 15th, 2022 at 2:27 AM ^
I remember Denard going to Msu and other games and us putting up 13 points. I remember the first half of the season with Rudock. Yeah id take Cade as a QB. I still think Denard is fantastic.
October 12th, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
Tate Forcier would like a word with you.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:28 PM ^
I love Cade, but I would have to say it’s more than a “slight” edge this year. At least so far
2021 Washington, Nebraska and rutgers games were pretty worrisome games for the passing attack
October 11th, 2022 at 4:34 PM ^
Yeah, I was probably being kind but I don’t want to jump the gun and give JJ a huge edge yet. If he completes 70% of his passes for 250 yards and no turnovers vs Penn State, I will definitely give it to them at that point.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:55 PM ^
Eh, maybe. But he won us the Wisconsin game when the running game was non-existent. Posted a stellar 90.1 QBR with 7 ypa, 2 TDs and 0 ints against an extremely good Wisconsin defense.
In JJ's best game of the year (Iowa), the most we could say about him was that he channeled his inner Cade and managed the crap out of that one.
Needs to get his legs more involved and hit some deep balls before we can say he's way ahead of Cade, IMO.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
I think they are not running JJ because they are worried he will get hurt. I think that's very legit. If we start running JJ with frequency, I think you'll be seeing some Cade action.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^
He can keep it 3-5 times a game would be huge and wouldn’t put him in much danger. I agree that baseball slide has to go. Just watch tape of the St. Louis rams WR’s early aughts on how to dive on the ground when about to be tackled.
October 11th, 2022 at 8:18 PM ^
In the Iowa game, JJ's scramble to evade the DE and throw to Edwards for a TD was something Cade couldn't have done. Just as JJ's run for a first down on third-and-seven against Indiana is something Cade couldn't have done. Respect for Cade's accomplishments last year, but c'mon. Also, the coaches are probably placing limits on JJ's running to keep from having to go to QB3 while Cade is coping with injury. Agree about hitting deep throws.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^
I don't know if I'd say the DL is even with last year, just because Hutch (and later) Ojabo were so damn good. But it is a much deeper DL room this year which is really going to pay off as the season goes along.
Special teams?: Even
October 11th, 2022 at 6:11 PM ^
Sacks YTD = 22 through 6 games. Total sacks full year 2021 = 34. Seems like by that measure, this year is going to be much better for quarterback pressure?
October 11th, 2022 at 7:14 PM ^
Level of competition has to be taken into account, my friend. Michigan has padded it stats against some truly awful competition this year, particularly in it’s out of conference scheduling.
I’m not saying that they can’t be really good this year, but what I am saying is that unless you’re at OSU, Alabama, Georgia or Clemson, you don’t just replace two first round caliber DEs and not expect some drop off. I do think the DL is good this year, possibly very good, but the proof will be in the pudding when they go to Columbus.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^
To be fair though we have been churning out NFL edge rushers with regularity. The idea we still have dudes now is completely reasonable.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:42 PM ^
Yes, but 14 of those 22 sacks this year came in just two games against teams that (a) liked to throw the ball a lot but (b) had really bad OLines that couldn't protect the QB (CSU-7 and Indiana-7).
Again, I do think this is a good DL and it is definitely deeper than last year's DL. They may end up being as good, but I'm just not ready to say that yet.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:08 PM ^
I would say it's even because the drop off there has been offset by this year Mazi, Jenkins and Graham being clearly better than last year's interior d-line. Also Mike Morris is a pretty good player in his own right and the other spot opposite him is really coming along with the development of the guys there so its not as a severe of a drop as we thought it would be at least so far. Obviously we will know more on that front against better competition though.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:33 PM ^
QB: Edge 2022.
-I am a huge Cade fan, but at this point in the season, most people were complaining that he was functioning mostly as a game manager. JJ has also largely managed games, but we all see the much higher ceiling, but the difference that his legs could make if the bubble wrap is removed in a big game.
One caveat: Last year, we had JJ as a backup. This year, if our primary QB goes down, the drop off would be huge.
RB: Edge 2021.
-Corum has been amazing, but Haskins was an absolute beast, and the combo of him and Corum was dominant. If we get into a rock fight against a strong DL, Haskins' power to pick up those extra yards will be sorely missed.
WR/TE: Edge 2022.
-Yes, Eric All is a huge loss, but Schoon has been amazing since the All injury. Plus, having Bell back can't be understated - QBs need a go to WR and Bell is that for JJ.
OL: Even.
-I agree with the OP; Both years the OL has been great.
DL: Edge 2021
-Yes, Mazi, Okie, Morris et al have been great and all seem to be ascending. That said, the combo of Ojabo and Hutch overwhelmed teams. We aren't there yet with this line. This is a step down and the magnitude of that step down won't be know until we see how our 2022 DL performs against the better offenses on our schedule (PSU and OSU).
LB: Huge Edge 2021.
-Colston is a great athlete, but the overall LB play this season has been scary.
Secondary: I think I would agree with the OP on Even
-Losing Dax hurts, but Sainristil mitigates that loss, along with the development of the returning guys. That said, we haven't really faced any teams that air it out, so this is TDB.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:34 PM ^
If we get into a rock fight against a strong DL, Haskins' power to pick up those extra yards will be sorely missed
I'm not sure about that. Corum has picked up nicely where Haskins left off in that area.
But we did have better overall depth at the position last year.
October 11th, 2022 at 7:33 PM ^
I love Corum but when he went out last year Haskins went pure beast. Until we see Corum or someone else carry us late in the season like that I’ll remain a little skeptical. Not saying it’s not possible but looking back what Haskins did last year for us was pretty special IMO.
October 11th, 2022 at 8:03 PM ^
Corum is great. But Haskins you had to commit to stopping. I don't think we've really seen anyone do that for Corum (although Indiana did, they always do).
October 11th, 2022 at 8:10 PM ^
I think we need to take play calling and tendencies into account. When Blake gets tackled for a loss this season its 7 guys behind our offensive line. Our TFL on the run dont look bad they look down right horrific. I dont remember seeing that last year and I dont think Barry Sanders could fix those play results.
October 11th, 2022 at 10:03 PM ^
People are really underestimating Corum's ability to utilize more power if needed. He is 210 this year and at his height that is a ton of muscle mass. He has absolute tree trunks for legs.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:44 AM ^
Corum ran for 240 yards on 30 carries in this exact situation against Maryland. It was reminiscent of Indiana 21'when Corum went our and Haskins went beast mode. I'd also say teams have to commit to Corum as much or even more so because one small crease with him could be a TD or a chunk play. I love Haskins and by no means is it an insult to him, but Corum is currently giving this team everything Haskins did and potentially even more.
October 11th, 2022 at 6:09 PM ^
Harbaugh on 97.1 this morning said he wants JJ to start using his legs more
October 11th, 2022 at 4:35 PM ^
At this point last year I was more impressed than I am this year; but that is largely due to how much above expectations we were playing. Beating Washington and on the road in Madison and Lincoln holds more than beating who we were supposed to this year.
Removing expectations from the equation I would say it is pretty even through 6 games. If I had to give an edge, it would be to 2021 but not by much
October 11th, 2022 at 4:38 PM ^
Last year's Rutgers game gave me more heartburn than any game so far this year. But I think I felt better at last year's halfway point than I do this year.
We had two solid wins by this point - the beatdown of Washington and the "stolen football valor" game against Wisconsin. Seeing the team having fun doing the Jump Around with zero fear in their eyes, exuding nothing but confidence when it was still only a 10 point game against a stout defense in a stadium we hadn't won at in 20 years, then seeing them proceed to bury Wisconsin in the 4th quarter, was the event that made me a believer that the 2021 team had turned the ship around.
Overall, I think if I had to project the rest of the year, I think our 2021 team was better. I think the offense is similarly good but I think our defense was better last year and our LBs/current passing defense won't be good enough to hold up against CFP caliber offenses
Edit: I forgot to mention, the loss of Hutchinson + Ojabo was huge but I think the loss of Hawkins as the leader of our secondary is also huge and is not being talked about nearly as much. That's a part of why I'm more down on our pass D than others may be
October 11th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
I actually kind of think that moment actually really demoralized Wisconsin. Michigan took something that was “their thing” and made it everybody’s thing. Looking back it did kind of strip away a bit of their identity.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:22 PM ^
I think this was a much bigger mental boost for Michigan than it was a psychological shock for Wisconsin. They do Jump Around every game, so believe it or not, we are not the first team to participate in it. I don't know exactly how often it is, but it definitely happens every year. Hell, I watched OSU do it in their 2010 loss at Madison. Wisconsin doesn't care who does it, but I do think it made a difference for Michigan. To go from the 2019 embarrassment of getting a delay penalty at Penn State on the first play of the game to having road confidence as seen by Jump Around and the pink towels is a testament to the staff correcting past problems
October 11th, 2022 at 10:12 PM ^
I mean the reality is in hindsight that Washington team absolutely sucked and honestly I really don't see a difference between winning at Iowa and winning at Wisconsin last year. Faced a very inept offense on the other side in both those games but a very good defense in a hostile environment.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
I agree with your offensive analysis, but feel like you're a bit toobullish on the defense.
DL - I'll give you that it's been the strength of the defense for sure, but I don't think it's on par with 2021. Slight edge to last year, IMO.
LB - definitely stronger in 2021. Haven't been that impressed with the LB play so far. Guys look a bit lost at times.
Secondary - same as LB's - I feel 2021 was stronger, but we'll really find out about the defense next week. Looking ahead, I'm quite worried about OSU's passing attack but thankful the boys have some time between now and then to shore things up.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:42 PM ^
The stats can be deceiving (which isn't really true if you're using the correct, temp-free opponent adjusted stats) so we're going to talk about our feelings...
October 11th, 2022 at 4:42 PM ^
RB: I would say full edge to 2021. Haskins/Corum/Edwards is better than Corum/Edwards/??? just based on depth and change of pace alone.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^
Gut feels? Okay:
Haskins + Corum > Corum + Edwards
OL: 21 seems slightly better able to open running lanes, but this is just my impression. Stats guys will find a way to "prove" me right or wrong here.
DL: my gut was that AH + DO were stronger earlier and more obviously than the 22 DL. However, I suspect that 22 will wind up "catching" 21, which will be awesome.
WR/TE: 22 seems stronger.
Defensive secondary: feels kind of even.
Pretty much everything will be revealed in the PSU game. First of the big games.
QB? Kind of an apples to axles comparison: Cade was more deliberate and seemed better able to "manage" a punishing ground attack. Passing, kind of hit or miss, literally. JJ follows the play book well but he's much more mobile and brings an *obviously* better passing attack. Once he dials in some of his down-field throws, it's going to be great.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:46 PM ^
LB and Safety are problems right now.
But we know how to win, how to grow through a season, and how to prepare for and pulverize the life out of OSU. Just keep getting better each day.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:49 PM ^
I disagree, I would say only LB is a real problem. I feel like all our safeties are at around Metellus level right now with the floor being “guys you don’t hear much from because they are solid and keep play in front of them” and a ceiling of “All Big Ten” from Paige, Moor, and Moten. All solid.
LBs are asked to do quite a bit in this defense beyond just plugging the run, and we have a couple guys with that athletic ability, but unfortunately one is injured. Hoping for NHG back and ascension from the LBs this year, which I think is reasonable as they are still young across the board.
October 11th, 2022 at 4:49 PM ^
Please let's not forget special teams. We may never again see two consecutive years of what we are enjoying now. I haven't done the research, but the "feelz" says these are our two best special teams ever.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:24 PM ^
ST as a unit has been good, but Moody and Robbins have been disappointing relative to last year
October 11th, 2022 at 4:50 PM ^
I'm struck by just how similar JJ's first few games have been to Cade's last year. The things we were saying about Cade and his offense last year at this point in the season--conservative, more of a game manager, trouble hitting the deep ball--are the same things we're seeing from JJ this year. Of course, Cade and the offense improved and evolved as the season progressed and we know what happened. Hoping for the same with JJ; so far I don't see why it wouldn't.
EDIT: I'm not saying Cade and JJ are similar players. JJ can do things Cade can't. We'll need the higher ceiling against OSU. This is not a knock on Cade. In fact, the way their respective early seasons have played out, one could say Cade's ceiling wasn't limited, his playbook was.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:34 PM ^
We might be saying the same things as last year, but that would be based on expectations. If Cade had played at the same level as JJ has, we would have been ecstatic.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:45 PM ^
I'm struck by just how similar JJ's first few games have been to Cade's last year.
I don't know about that. This was Cade's stat line in the Washington game: 7-15, 44 yards. For the game!
In the first four games of 2021, Cade attempted 11, 15, 11 and 16 passes, respectively. The staff kept him under wraps in a way they definitely have not with JJ. They started to remove the wraps in the UW game (17-28, 197 yards, 2 TD).
October 11th, 2022 at 11:01 PM ^
I compared the Indiana game this year to Northwestern last year; meh games where Michigan pulled away late after mediocre first halves, games that we'll forget all about in a couple of weeks (I had to look up the Northwestern game to remember what happened).
Cade threw for something like 150 yards in the Northwestern game. JJ threw for 300 against Indiana.
JJ is better than Cade was at this point in the season and it's not close. Cade did pretty well (surprisingly well!) against Wisconsin early-ish, and then really turned it on against Michigan State, by far his most impressive game. That was later in the year, and we still have that matchup on our schedule this year.