Golden Gophers Proving OOC Schedule is Irrelevant
Minny likely to be ranked Top 7 this week. If they win out, they will be in CFB Playoff. Period. The Gophers have a ridiculously weak Out of Conference schedule. Begs the question: why would any AD look at the OOC schedule as anything more than a tune-up to conference play?
(Penn St and WIS have figured this out too)
November 11th, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^
I agree. Schedule cupcakes.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:19 AM ^
"We bow to no program..." The CFP committee on the other hand...
November 11th, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
I would much rather see Michigan play quality opponents than see Michigan back their way, unprepared, into the playoff.
Some of the most enjoyable sports-related moments of my life have been Michigan victories over Notre Dame. If they'd been playing Fresno State... (a) I wouldn't have traveled to Ann Arbor to attend, and (b) it wouldn't have registered the way the ND wins have.
November 11th, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
I agree Michigan shouldn’t ever try to “back into the CFP unprepared.”
However, you’re missing the point. With the Big Ten East & the requirement to play the Big Ten West champ in Indy for the Big Ten Championship, Michigan “backing into the CFP unprepared” is a near impossibility.
Most seasons OSU is absolutely elite. PSU is usually very good. MSU can be good, or at least not a body bag game. Usually Indiana or Maryland is an OK program. Same with certain crossovers against or Wisconsin, Iowa, & depending on the year Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota and Nebraska.
This isn’t the ACC or the Big XII.
When it was “The Big 8 and Little 2”, there wasn’t a 13th conference championship game, the National champions were determined by subjective opinion polls, it made sense to schedule a non conference top program like Notre Dame or a top Pac 10 team.
It makes almost zero sense now—at least from a “maximize chance at the CFP” perspective.
November 11th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
Didn't Bo mostly have a tough opponent within the first game or two? As a student I recall playing Miami hurricanes when they were awesome, and ND twice , Colorado (though that might have been later in season), Florida St, etc. I'm all for cupcakes before the Big Ten but we need to play a wicked game first to get our bearings.
I don't think it's coincidence we got throttled by Wisconsin and had played small teams prior. We play Wisconsin now and I think we win, save Patterson hiccups.
I liked playing ND early on and know I'm in the minority here, but it does sharpen the team and sets things.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:15 PM ^
But that's because in that era Bo only cared about and focused on what Michigan could control: winning the Big Ten championship (including beating Ohio State). He felt that things like what was called the "mythical national championship" were beyond his team's control.
November 11th, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^
Money.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
More home games equals more money...
November 11th, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^
we should open a bakery with all the cupcakes we're gonna start scheduling.
November 11th, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^
we should open a bakery with all the cupcakes we're gonna start scheduling.
November 11th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
It's not irrelevant, but it's also not super important. Had the Gophers beaten ND, like Michigan, they'd be top 4 right now. Instead they're by far the lowest ranked major conference perfect team.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^
Michigan gets more benefit of the doubt than Minnesota all else equal.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^
Actually Baylor is undefeated at 9-0 and only ranked 12th
November 11th, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
I guess I don't see the Big 12 as a "major" conference, but good point. However, Baylor doesn't have a nominally top 5 win...
November 11th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
Being Top 4 right now doesn’t matter a lick. If Minny wins out they will be in playoff.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
Yep, winning out will get them wins against Iowa (fringe top 25), Wisconsin (Top 25), and Ohio State (Top 5).
That will get them in the playoff. Who cares about their ooc vs fresno
November 11th, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
Well yes if those things happen they will be in the playoff.
And if monkeys fly out of my butt....
November 11th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
undefeated power5 team winning conference?
it should be an automatic playoff team regardless the team's name in my opinion.
either the team will be competitive in the playoff or pull an MSU and just prove how bad the conference really is. both are informative.
November 11th, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^
True, but OSU is going to beat the hell out of them.
November 11th, 2019 at 1:42 PM ^
And if they had lost to a decent ooc team, winning out and being undefeated in the conference would still put them in the playoff.
There is more to gain (margin of error) than lose by scheduling good ooc.
Just ask OSU who made in despite not winning the division because they beat OU in 2016.
November 11th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
Well one loss likely dooms them as well. Which is not true for teams with stronger schedules
November 11th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
This. A P5 team that wins out will almost certainly make the playoffs regardless of OOC schedule. Playing a real game or two outside of your conference might give you a small margin if you slip up.
November 11th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
Exactly. OSU got in that one year with a loss mainly because they beat Oklahoma. IIRC.
November 11th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
I think that's true for the B10 West, not the East.
I think having OSU, PSU, and MSU in our side of the conference provides enough large games that one loss doesn't necessarily rule you out. Especially if you get that extra conference title game, which further bolsters the resume.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
Except when that conference title game opponent is a 4 loss Northwestern and your OOC was 2-10 Oregon State, 6-6 TCU, and Tulane. Then getting run off the field by a 6-6 Purdue team will knock you out.
November 11th, 2019 at 5:03 PM ^
Another reason to schedule better ooc opponents. Leaves you with no margin of error.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
Disagree because Alabama is in the best division in football and the committee has basically communicated their weak schedule will now doom them unless a chaos storm happens.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
Except you're way less likely to have that one loss if you only play shitty teams.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
That's only because they're named Minnesota and don't have a "brand" -- go look at 2016 Washington: non-conference of Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State; lost to non-ranked USC by 2 touchdowns; still made playoff as a 1-loss Pac12 champ. And we are a bigger name than Washington.
Still, I would put money* that Minnesota would make the playoff if they lost to Iowa (in a relatively close game), but won the Big Ten, beating Penn State, Wisconsin and OSU along the way. Certainly would get in over any Pac-12 team.
*I have zero expectation Minnesota will beat OSU, but if they did.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:03 AM ^
Yep. If you go undefeated in a P5 conference, OOC is not a big deal unless there are 5-6 undefeated teams (unlikely). But if you have one loss, your chances of still making the playoff are much better if you’ve beaten one or two high quality opponents.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^
Alabama's schedule is weaker and they'll have a loss and still be ahead of Minnesota.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
Alabama
November 11th, 2019 at 9:53 AM ^
At this point I'm perfectly fine with a bunch of body bags in the pre-conference season to get personnel and schemes fixed by the time conference games start. Maybe one team with a pulse, but you don't need to build a ND-like schedule to compete for a CFP spot. Especially since we're probably a couple years away from an expanded playoff, just focus on winning your conference and move along.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:04 AM ^
I completely agree with this. Until conference champions get auto-bids in the playoff, I have no problem with Michigan playing nothing but pulse-free teams in the out of conference schedule. Collect the Ws and move on.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
Agreed. I preferred a strong OOC schedule when I was a season ticket holder, but that was long before the playoff era.
If championships are the goal, then there is no benefit for us to schedule good teams OOC. Our division is tough and deep enough. Also, let's play Indiana early and Rutger before OSU.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
And schedule your out of conference games later in the season like the SEC does. This way you play a couple in conference more recognized games early and shoot up the rankings right off the bat. When you play the cupcakes later in the season, again like the SEC does, you won't drop a ranking positions like you can at the beginning of the year.
November 11th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
I’m not sure we know that for a fact yet. The CFP committee hasn’t released their rankings yet, if Minnesota is only 9 or 10, they could still be punishing them for a cup cake OOC (or massive SEC bias).
November 11th, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
Agreed. I feel like they love to send "statements" with their initial rankings, but in the final ranking, they tow the company line and pick the four biggest plausible teams.
See 2014 there they dropped unbeaten TCU from #3 to #6 to get OSU in the playoff.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^
It doesn't matter. If they win out, they will be in 100% of the time
The only argument you could make is that if they played a hard nonconference schedule they could make the playoffs even with a loss to OSU, which I think would be totally untrue.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
Please explain Clemson's ranking with their schedule.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
Because they won the national championship game last year?
November 11th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
Completely agree. The CFP committee has demonstrated over and over again that wins over bad teams > close losses to good teams. This only applies to Power 5 teams though. If you’re not a P5 school then you do have to schedule the most rigorous OOC schedule possible and win out to even be considered. This is why Harbaugh’s Play-off idea would be a big improvement. ADs can feel free to schedule really good OOC games, knowing that they can still get in the playoff with a conference win. I’m fine with a 9-10 game conference schedule if it means the other 2-3 games are home-and-home games against iconic teams like LSU and Texas, instead of tomato cans (boring) and service academies (yikes).
November 11th, 2019 at 9:58 AM ^
Every SEC school has figured this out too. As as OSU, PSU and virtually every other school with realistic aspirations to play in the final four except one. Us.
Not Michigan. No way brother. We're gonna schedule the roughest, toughest, hardest most difficult schedule imaginable to prove our manliness. No cupcake schedule for our boys - we'll show everybody the Michigan difference!
While watching other teams play for a national championship.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:07 AM ^
To be fair, our nonconference didn't screw us over. The lopsided conference scheduling did. You can't have a conference race considered fair when half the teams literally play another home game than the other half and four teams are exempt from playing OSU every year
November 11th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
Yeah but we have the same number of conference home games as all the other east division teams.
Plus OSU and MSU played Wisconsin too. And PSU had to play and unexpectedly good Minnesota.
I'd like the big ten to drop to 8 conference games, but at some point we have to just win the games on the schedule. At this point the only unwinnable game on the schedule this year appears to be OSU.
November 11th, 2019 at 1:23 PM ^
Yup, not only does Minnesota not have to play OSU this year, but also doesn't have to play Michigan or MSU. And they have Penn State and Wisconsin at home. Literally the only team with a pulse they play on the road is Iowa. Penn State was a very good win, but PSU was significantly overranked IMO.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
Yea osu has been doing this since Tressel. It’s worked for them and it will again this year if they win out. Minny and others should absolutely follow suit.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
What are you even talking about? Oregon and Auburn played this year. Florida has FSU and Miami which are both p5 teams even if they happen to suck this year (when you schedule years out can't really hold that against teams). LSU played at Texas this year, Bama has Miami, USC and Texas for the next 3 years and Wisconsin after that, penn state has vtech and auburn for the next 3 years, OSU has Oregon and Notre Dame, etc. Every single fucking premier team has a marquee out of conference game for the next few years at the same level as us playing Washington and much better than what we have now in 2022 and 2023. It is like people do literally no research before posting about how hard it is to be Michigan in an unfair and cruel world. We don't make the playoffs because we can't beat OSU, that's it that is the list of our problems.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:50 AM ^
Well and because we can't start out games on the road worth a shit too. We have 2 losses right now not to OSU fyi.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
And neither has anything to do with OOC scheduling either.