Fuck Draft Lotteries
The last place Pistons fall as far as possible to pick 5. Unbelievable that this happens to Detroit teams regularly. Detroit now gets a decent player rather than a once-in-a-generation talent.
Agree. Draft lotteries are stupid. Get rid of them. If teams want to tank let them.
If you want to have a lottery for the top pick, OK. But the team with the worst record shouldn't drop this far.
Why aren’t lotteries truly done out in open. Show should start by showing how many ping pong balls Each team gets With their record. Then show putting them in the machine. Then pick out picks 14 down to 1 on all true random on national tv. Why don’t they do this? Because they want to control who gets certain picks in the back room.
They should do it out in the open, but not for 14 picks. Then the worst team might not even pick in the top 10.
Having one draw - for the top pick - is enough. You can give every team an equal shot. But after that, you should go by record. That was how the NBA originally did it.
I like this version except for the idea that the team that won it all has an equal shot to get the #1 pick.
What if they did a lottery for #1 but instead of every team having the same odds they skew it towards the teams with the worst records?
No, only the teams that missed the playoffs had a shot at the #1 pick. Playoff teams still picked according to their record.
The only reason for secrecy is deceit.
Nothing more maddening than conspiracy theorists. They allowed TWENTY reporters to watch the process, Jethro.
all san antonio reporters...lol
But honestly, why don't they just draw the ping-pong balls live on the air? Why does it need to be behind closed doors?
The actual drawing is done in front of a representative of every team and with a bunch of media members. It's pretty well vetted for legitimacy.
Draft lotteries are stupid.
Should be named Daft Lotteries.
Nice
I think tanking sucks and should not be rewarded. Here's my draft solution.
- Since there are 30 teams in the league, every team should get a top 5 pick once every six years. And everyone should get a 6-10, 11-15, and so on.
- Every six years you do a random draw to see which bucket each team is in for each of the next six years. Knowing when your top 5 (or bottom 5) pick is coming would help with planning.
- Then, the year of the draft, you do a weighted draw within your bucket to actually decide who is 1,2,3,4, and 5. I'd be ok with making the draw totally unweighted, too.
If we aren't going to do relegation, we at least need to remove the incentive to suck.
What if a team is just bad? How do you distinguish “tanking” from just being bad and demoralized?
Not only that, but each draft is not made of similar prospects. And not all of them are as deep as some. Imagine Boston getting Wemby because it was their turn in 6 years. Just do it for top pick and set the rest on record. Even having top 5 picks every year is no guarantee. Just look at the Clippers under Sterling. Or the current Orlando Magic roster.
Free agency sucks for small market teams.
Take the columbus blue jackets... numerous top players simply walk away.
Make the salary cap include players income from outside the league.
Or maybe it is because columbus sucks...
I wish we had relegation like euro soccer does. Fans don’t deserve to watch their teams not try and give shit effort so they can be REWARDED with a top pick. What’s the point in paying to watch them play???
Also, the Spurs were actively tanking to an insane degree to end the year and they still got the top pick.
I get that drafts are always full of unknowns and maybe Wemby doesn't pan out but it really feels like Detroit teams have been cursed with little luck in drafts recently save for, I guess, the Cunningham pick.
And while Cunningham is a nice player, that was not the best year to have the #1 pick.
Not the worst either though. Bennett, Fultz.
Maybe even Ayton?
Seems like average #1 pick, that's ok.
That was a decent draft considering the next three guys taken - Green, Mobley, and Barnes - have all been All Star-level players at various times, but none seem particularly transcendent. Franz went to the Magic and seems like a steal as well. But the year before was Anthony Edwards, the year before that was Zion and Ja, and even Ayton has been a solid NBA player at a tough position to fill.
I don't think the Pistons were "owed" this top pick - they had 14% chance of winning and that's how probabilities work out with a single-sample event. But the Spurs getting yet another franchise-level, transcendent player because they sucked for a couple of years is just annoying.
You put your finger on it without even knowing; having only a 14% chance as the team with the worst record is stupid.
The fact that the 5th pick is what we had the best odds to get is what is gross. We should be in top 3 period. But I called the SA thing as soon as the season ended. It writes itself. Pop gets another franchise big man, another French superstar, in the same player to mold and make one more run at it before he hangs it up. It's 100% rigged for storylines and ratings.
The Spurs have gotten a better pick than their record in the lottery every year except 1.
That one year they got exactly the predicted pick.
They have NEVER, in all their lotteries, fallen below the predicted pick.
Detroit on the other hand has the 2nd worst lottery luck ever.
The Heat are the worst, in 9 trips they've never moved up once and have moved down 4 times.
This is some revisionist history. Cunningham was the consensus #1 pick and widely regarded as a slam dunk prospect, with his hype building since before he even played in college. NBA fans of the bottom few teams were praying to the gods they'd get the #1 pick because they knew it'd be Cunningham.
I guess we'll find out now how good of a GM Troy Weaver really is.
Of course, if he hires Kevin Ollie to be head coach, it probably doesn't make a difference.
The idea behind the lottery is that it’s supposed to prevent teams from tanking purposely.
I don’t mind it but I want better review of the balls they use and machines etc.
Not shocked the Spurs got #1 but the Pistons with the 5th? Oh come on.
Agreed. Portland had almost double our wins & still landed a coveted top 3 slot which is bullshit.
Pistons getting 5th isn't really that big of a stretch. They had a 47.9% chance of being outside the top 4.
The NBA takes around here are pretty consistently awful and uninformed. Anybody who follows the NBA knows this was a very plausible outcome.
I'm guessing people's objections are less with the fact that it happened and moreso that the lotter weightings mean the worst team in the league is basically 50/50 to fall outside the top 4 (if that's all true - I don't follow the NBA).
It is basically 50/50, but that is a bad take without context as it makes it sound like the worst team has bad odds. Every team below them also has 50/50 odds of falling outside the top four, and those teams can fall even further back. However, the worst team cannot fall below 5. So, the second worst team has the same odds of falling to pick 5 OR 6. Third worst team has same odds of falling to 5, 6 OR 7.
The three worst teams in the league have the same odds of landing picks 1-4, but there is a sliding scale with hard stops after that. It sucks that the Pistons ended up in their worst case scenario this year, but it's not as if they had worse odds than any other team. They still had the best odds overall for getting a top 5 pick. (In fact, they were the ONLY team guaranteed to be picking in the top 5.)
Why in the hell would they punish the worst team with essentially a 50:50 chance to pick 5? Even if they are tanking, don't tell me the players are mailing it in. I saw some of the backend Pistons games and they were playing to win. I think it's a sign of the quality of a team if their bench isn't that good. Also, there's the schedule; it's not equally challenging for the bottom dwellers. I'm sure they'll discuss changes 😒
Can someone explain how this works to me? I’ve googled it and read 3-4 different articles but it still doesn’t make sense.
The lottery is used for only the TOP 4 spots. Everything else is then set by regular season record. The balls were drawn and this year both the Hornets and Blazers got picked and essentially jumped the Pistons. The Rockets and Spurs (same odds as the pistons) also got picked. This was the worst the Pistons could have ended up since they had the worst overall record this season.
I feel like a lottery system that accounts for multiple seasons, somewhat weighted by recency, makes more sense than only going by the past season. Even better if the odds were fluid, rather than having the same locked in percentages (like the current system's even 14% odds for the three worst records). So if one team's calculated score was much worse than anyone else they would then have much better odds compared to those teams. A system like that would better prevent recently good teams from immediately reloading, while boosting the odds for teams that have had extended years of basement-dwelling.
And the one year they get the #1 it was such a weak draft at the top. Then the next year the top 3 are all top talents. Then of course this year the best prospect since Lebron. Bummer.
I think you might be confusing the same drafts. The 2-4 guys taken after Cunningham have all been really solid players. I'm not out on Cunningham but this feels a bit like the Darko year where the Pistons got the one dud in a class that featured LeBron, Melo, Bosh, and Wade all going in the top 5. I don't see Barnes, Mobley, etc. all having HOF-level careers but Cunningham not being able to stay healthy or be particularly efficient is such a drag.
Redraft the 2019 & 2021 draft and I'm reasonably sure the pick the Cavs took would go #1. Sure things (like Zion) dont always turn out that way for a variety of reasons.
2019
1. Pelicans Zion Williamson
2. Grizzlies Ja Morant
3. Knicks draft RJ Barrett
4. Lakers DeAndre Hunter
5. Cavaliers Darius Garland
2021
1. Pistons Cade Cunningham
2. Rockets Jalen Green
3. Cavaliers Evan Mobley
4. Raptors Scottie Barnes
5. Magic Jalen Suggs
Pistons and Red Wings just cursed in the lottery.
Two years ago, felt good about Detroit sports. Tigers looked to be improving. Campbell and Holmes hired. Wings still had a couple more lottery shots. Pistons got Cade. Tigers’ success was a mirage. Cade got hurt. Wings just couldn’t get that franchise player. Lions make me feel warm and cuddly now, but I’m waiting for the floor to drop out from under them.
The Wings and Tigers feel like there are bones of at least playoff teams, especially for the Tigers being in the weak Central. But yeah, the Pistons just seem stuck in the muck and maybe they'll scrape into the play-in games but right now they don't really have a coherent roster.
It's weird believing in the Lions but at this point it's all fans have.
Literally all we have, and despite all the positive signs, this is STILL the Lions and even if you bathe in the Kool-Aid, a part of you has to feel somewhat nervous.
Chicago Blackhawks from 2003-2008 had an average first round pick of 6.5. Toews was a third pick and Kane was #1 pick the next year. They were able to fill good players around stars to win Cups. The six year draft position was 7th best of all time.
Other teams that got high draft picks in a six year period like Pittsburg penguins 2002-2007 had an average pick of 5.17 (5th best all time) and they turned their team around to win 3 Stanley cups. Most recently the NJ devils 2017-2022 had an average of 5.33 and now they are a young, skillful team that just made the playoffs for the first time in a while and got to the second round.
And Chicago gets to do it all over again. 🤦♂️ In 6 years the Oilers picked #1 four times!
2.33 Edmonton Oilers (2010 to 2015)
3.17 Quebec Nordiques (1987 to 1992)
3.33 Ottawa Senators (1992 to 1997)
4.67 Buffalo Sabres (2014 to 2019)
5.17 Pittsburgh Penguins (2002 to 2007)
5.33 New Jersey Devils (2017 to 2022)
6.50 Chicago Blackhawks (2003 to 2008)
7.17 Florida Panthers (2010 to 2015)
I have SI covers with the latest Pistons and Redwings championships in my mancave.... it has been forever since one of my teams (including the Wolverines) won a championship.....
Pistons have been screwed in multiple lotteries
Lions or Wolverines are going up soon
That’s hardly forever