ESPN Playoff Predictor: UM 3rd Most Likely to Make CFP
I would like to see the team beat Notre Dame and win the B1G first.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
Beat ND, State, OSU....anything less then that, the season is a failure.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
So if they lose to ND but beat MSU and OSU and go to Indy it'll be a failure?
You're an idiot.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
He's out of his element.
That was OVER THE LINE!
He is mistaking Notre Dame for Nihilists.
He's just pointing out the rules. This isn't Nam!
Please stop giving him compliments.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
Like last year, the ND game is a game that is unlikely to signficantly hurt or help M. Michigan almost certainly must win the division (and then the conference title), to get to the playoff.
So it should all come down to The Game like it has two of the past three seasons. With the OSU coaching change and the game being at home, that's pretty much a must win game. ND isn't a must win. MSU isn't even a must win if that's the only big ten game M loses.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
Part of the reason why last year's ND game didn't have a significant impact on Michigan's resume was because it was the first game of the season and teams change dramatically over the course of it. The committee understands this and takes this into account every year. That's why OSU made it into the playoff the first year it was used even though they were blown out by Virginia Tech in the first game of the season.
The ND game being later in the season makes it have a far more significant impact. If they lose it might be enough to knock them out of the playoff depending on the resumes of other teams.
No. The reason it had little impact is because ND was good and it was on the road so it was a game that didn't hurt to lose. The situation going into The Game would have been identical had that game occured at any other point in the season: beat OSU and win the conference and they would have been in the playoff. Full stop.
I will admit that since the ND is a home game, it's a little more important not to lose it, but if Michigan loses it and wins the rest of their games, they will make the playoffs with 99.9% certainty.
That's the definition of a low leverage game. It is quite possibly the lowest leverage game on Michigan's schedule.
My very first words were "PART of the reason...". There are multiple factors that go into a game's impact on tournament resume. Yours is one of them. Mine is another.
lol here we frikkin go again
April 17th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
I don't know what their metrics or algorithm are, but I like anything that can get me excited about the football team after the OSU game and the bowl.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
From what I read about it, they based it on the fact we bring back 8 starters on Offense, including Shea Patterson, and OSU has a new coaching staff and new QB, plus we have them, MSU, and ND at home, so we have the best potential to be the favorite team from the B1G to make the playoff.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
Let's face it...
The main reason is because that asshole Urban Meyer is gone.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
This is it to be honest. Urban (and Tressel before him) had our number, and still we came painfully close to winning a bunch of times.
Ryan Day is an unknown quantity going up against an excellent coach and team that doesn't lose at home all that often.
We should be favored to beat them his year, history be damned. And if we can't, we should just join the ivies and play with them. Maybe take NU with us.
The 2016 game was the chance to turn things around. A blown opportunity that really can't be fixed.
too soon
If only Ryan Day turns out to be Luke Fickell 2.0 - but I imagine this to be unlikely
It’s unlikely that he turns out to be Luke Fickell 2.0, but it’s also unlikely that he turns out to be Urban Meyer 2.0.
8 starters return but it’s going to be interesting to see how the O performs. There are going to be growing pains any time you transition to a new offense. UM has strengths at QB and WR positions but the O-line and backfield are question marks imo. Additionally, to transition from a two tight end “manball” approach to speed in space takes the athletes to pull that off. The highlights from the spring game that I saw on BTN showed a much modernized look but the jet sweep looked painfully slow. I’m sure they will get much better by fall but do wonder how high the ceiling is until recruiting catches up with the speed concept.
April 18th, 2019 at 12:03 AM ^
Yea we don’t expect an up tempo, air raid assault but we do expect to take advantage of the athletes we do have with tempo and not running the ball on every first and second down. You can’t teach speed but you can be much more dynamic with our current roster than we have been in the past.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:38 PM ^
The overall talent level should be way above where it was in '17, when there were huge gaps on the roster thanks to the Bad Hoke years. Michigan shouldn't need a year to reload.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
I don't believe it. At this point I'm so shell shocked that I won't believe it until it happens. We could have the LA Rams sub in for our team next year for the whole season and I feel like we'll still drop the OSU game, another rivalry game, and the bowl.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^
Not falling for this again...
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April 17th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
Meaningless
April 17th, 2019 at 11:30 AM ^
I'd bet
"beating ND and winning the B1G" = CFP
in 90% of possibilities
April 17th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
Somehow @Wisconsin doesn't frighten mean, however Iowa gives me the heebejebeez
Would trade loss at Iowa for any win vs OSU. Ten times out of ten.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
99% of possibilites that would be good enough.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
If they say so.....
Seriously though, I have seen a lot of media mention Michigan favorably in terms of playoff chances this year. I don't quite get it. I think we will have a fine team and win the dreaded 10 games but I am not sure I see where the playoff(playoffs?!?) optimism is coming from. We lost a lot of talent(some expected departures but other unforeseen attrition like Solomon and Evans) off of a team that got clubbed by OSU and Florida to end the season. It seems our spring roster is somewhat decimated with injuries. At the moment we have a fullback in the rotation in our interior defensive line and a walk-on as our feature back.
Good returning QB, that is one thing for sure. And certainly some receivers with a lot of potential. But I am curious to know what they are seeing that I am not.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
It's all the same outlets that said UM would go 7-5 or 8-4 last spring. So, whatever.
Which just goes to show you how much they know... as last year, we had a great front 7 and running game.
This year, Michigan has a lot of question marks in those areas... and they're getting more love?
Whatever. Just play the game.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
I think the prediction ultimately hinges around us beating OSU. We have them at home, they have a new coach, we have a new offense, etc. In 2 of the last 4 years, we'd have won the division with a win against OSU. In 2015, we'd have tied for the division, then lost on tiebreaker, I believe. In 2017, had we beat OSU and MSU in that rainstorm, we'd have tied and probably lost on tiebreaker. The team is usually in position at the end of the season to take the division with an OSU win, so if that happens, then it makes sense that we would win the division, probably conference, and then make the CFP.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
I am curious to know what they are seeing that I am not.
They're seeing 13 other Big Ten teams that also lost valuable contributors. The most dangerous of which also lost a hall-of-fame, top-5-all-time head coach and replaced him with a rookie. Start there, I guess.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
A "rookie" who took a flame-thrower to our vaunted defense last year. And you could say that 13 other teams lost valuable contributors literally every single year.
I think we will be a really solid team like we are every year under Harbaugh, but I guess I don't see why this year in particular would result in fairly consistent media playoff hype. Michigan lost a ton of guys on defense and the offense is a complete unknown right now with pretty substantial changes. Despite the rivals being home, it is a pretty brutal schedule again with even Army being a dangerous game.
I guess I don't see a lot of factors that would equate to the "presumption of Playoff," so to speak. Just my opinion. Could be and hope I am wrong. I think I am more in the show me mode at this point with this program. A lot of hype the last few years with very little to show for it.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
"A "rookie" who took a flame-thrower to our vaunted defense last year."
And also got flogged by Purdue. And whose offense also barely scored enough against Brown's defense in 2017 to outpace John friggin' O'Korn. Let's just keep making a bigger dread mountain out of one single outcome. We're national champs at that.
"You could say that 13 other teams lost valuable contributors literally every single year"
Correct. Each year we should weigh the teams on the returning pieces, not who they were the year before with coaches and players who are no longer on the team. Breaking news, I guess? Didn't think we'd have to explain that.
The rest? I don't care. You worry about Army for me. Godspeed, brother. See ya in the fall.
This is just lunacy. Seriously.
There are some people saying that a 41%(!) chance to make the Playoff seems like a stretch for this team. That is not the preposterous position you are making it out to be.
This is like Reverse-Maizen.
No it's not. It's also not a stretch to guess this team will be the CFP rep from the B1G. It's not at all. This fan base is just damaged. Completely damaged. Take your run-of-the-mill idiot college fan base, multiply it times a billion to account for our size, squared again to account for the ingrained Michigan pomposity, and then have your rivals kick you in the nuts for 15 years -- that's how you get to this point where even slight optimism from a neutral third party triggers all of the whiny posts in this thread.
Run down the list. Is PSU gonna make it replacing McSorley and Sanders? Is MSU gonna make it with no notable offensive changes? Is Wisconsin going to make it without Hornibrook? Iowa? Is Nebraska there yet? Are Maryland/Rutgers/Indiana any closer? Northwestern/Purdue?
None of them look as good on paper as OSU & Michigan. They're the cream of the Big Ten despite this forum's self-hatred. And we get that at home against Not Urban. A + B = probably Michigan.
Yeah, Oklahoma could be there replacing Kyler Murray. Texas could make a jump. Some PAC team could show some life. Anything could happen, but all of those teams have the same problems Michigan has. It's not ridiculous that we actually make it. It's more than likely we don't just because of the playoff limitations. But we have as good a shot as anybody else right now today. The end. Get mad about it.
It will be interesting to see how much the coaching change impacts OSU. Losing Haskins is a real issue for them but getting rid of Schiano is a huge positive for them. The D was hot garbage last year and there is no where to go but up for them. I would expect to see a less prolific but still solid passing game, a QB run game that defenses have to account for and a much improved defense.
IMO this is as close to a must win season for UM in the OSU series. Losing at home to a rookie head coach would be the wrong turn at the crossroads. Win and a new era is born, if they lose it’s fair to say the ceiling under Harbaugh has been reached. That’s just my take, I’m sure many with a different perspective will rightfully disagree.
Mark Helfrich "took a flame-thrower" to Arizona as OC at Oregon in 2012 (49-0).
He then lost to Arizona as a rookie Head Coach at Oregon in 2013 (16-42).
April 17th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
First, FPI is giving Michigan a 41% chance to make it, which might be the third highest but still means they are NOT expected to make it. Any combo of four other teams from the field have a better chance to make it than combinations including Michigan, it's just that only two individual teams have a better chance, if that makes sense.
What the metrics are seeing is a team that has a lot of guys back from a team that dominated for 10 straight games last year en route to being favored by a significant margin at OSU.
The pessimists are putting too much weight in that loss and the meaningless bowl loss in which a bunch of players didn't play. There's recency/availability bias there.
Michigan was still one of the five best teams last year, and it's not crazy that they're expected to be once again (although I am a little nervous about the DL). Since they get many of their tough games at home, that's why the chances for CFP are better than most other teams.
April 17th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
I'm also a bit surprised by it, but only because national pundits typically WAY overreact to end of season games and bowl games.
Michigan's performance against OSU was a shitstorm on every level. I can't pull it up right now, but S&P had that as like 5-10% performance, whereas OSU was at something like 90-95% that day. Michigan played about as poorly as it could have, OSU played absolutely out of their minds. If you remove emotion, this is pretty obvious: OSU was in OT against Maryland - a team anyone would agree is much worse than Michigan - and probably should have lost just the week before, and did get absolutely crushed by Purdue (and in that game, OSU played about as bad as it could, where Purdue played out of their minds). OSU is the better team, no doubt. But if both teams play at the same level last year, it's probably a 10-14 point loss. Still a drubbing, which sucks.
But now take Haskins off that OSU team. Yes Michigan loses a lot on defense, but people generally have confidence in Don Brown to field an elite D (and Michigan certainly has a lot of talent remaining). Bosa, Dremont Jones, Michael Jordan also gone for OSU. 3 of their top 4 WRs are out, including TD leaders Campbell and Mclaurin. Sure they have a ton of talent backing these guys up, but a lot of them haven't played. Haskins is the beast, replacing him is the most critical part.
I still would have OSU favored in that game, but I can see the rationale given it's at home. And I don't think Michigan is good enough to assume wins at PSU, Wiscy, and home against ND, Iowa, MSU, and Army. So I can see the case for Michigan being the favorite to win the East and the B1G. Don't really see it for the CFP.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:41 AM ^
Neat
April 17th, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
We did it!!!
April 17th, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
What has Michigan done in the past decade to get this kind of projection?!
Laughable.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Be ranked in the Top 4 in the polls for a good chunk of 2016 and late in the 2018 season.
Not THAT late though.