snowcrash

December 6th, 2010 at 11:15 PM ^

Miss St is maybe better than Penn State, but they are not as good as Iowa or Sparty. Iowa destroyed Sparty and was this close to beating both OSU and Wisconsin, and Sparty won 11 games including Wisconsin, at Penn State, and Illinois by 20. Miss St won the ones they were supposed to win (like we did), but their best win was 10-7 over Florida and its train wreck of an offense. I'd take the points, I figured the line would be Miss St by 3.

blue note

December 7th, 2010 at 12:47 AM ^

For each of the points you mention, there are even stronger ones pointing to the fact that Iowa was not good at all. Losing to 2-9 Minnesota shows more than what they almost did against OSU and Wisconsin.

Also didn't anyone notice that MSU is probably one of the most overrated teams in the country. Does anyone in America think they can stay with Alabama? They were a 50 yard field goal/ fake kick from losing to ND at home and they had to battle their asses off to beat Purdue.

I'd say MSU neutral field would be an even match up.

snowcrash

December 7th, 2010 at 2:24 AM ^

They lost focus against Minnesota by their own admission. Teams that are "not good at all" don't blow out 11-1 teams by 30 points. When Iowa is on their game, they can play with anyone and would probably beat Miss St by 10 points or so.

Sparty is overrated, but they're better than Miss St by any objective measure. 

save_me_forcier

December 7th, 2010 at 10:33 AM ^

Don't refer to Michigan State as "11-1 team" to make your point sound better, refer to them as Michigan State.

Blowing out Michigan State at home does not make Iowa good. Michigan State may be one of the worst 11-1 teams in a major conference in the history of college football. How many 11-1 teams in the Big 10 go to the capital one bowl and are still 10.5 point underdogs.

Michigan State and Mississippi State are actually decently comparable in my opinion. Put Michigan State through MIssissippi State's schedule and if you think they realistically do any better than 8-4 (Miss St's record) then.... well then discussing football with you is a waste of time. So with that comparison, considering Mich St. beat us at home by 17, that brings me back to my original point of Michigan +6 being a very reasonable line. If anything I think Michigan should be getting more points.

RSTJ

December 6th, 2010 at 11:17 PM ^

Probably suicide to admit this, but for a starting line I'm surprised it wasn't larger. MSU has only lost to ranked teams and beaten everyone else, they're currently ranked, and we had a terrible ATS, and the public is obsessed with the SEC. They aren't stellar at anything, but also don't have any painfully obvious flaws (ie defense or special fg kicking). They kept close with Auburn, which may hold some weight when people are looking for value in spreads.

With that being said, I think RR will have this team ready for the game.  I remember at some point in the past, Mathlete pointing out that the games with a week break were the best of the season (probably said before the PSU game ...). Meaning the Utah game and UConn game (and deleware last season?). But I'd never bet on this game.

kaykaybroke

December 6th, 2010 at 9:15 PM ^

is likely to drop closer to the game... (as more bets are placed)

IMO the game's gonna be much closer than this, the teams seem like perfect matchups for each other. i'm pumped for this game, and i'm betting on a tight UM victory, Go blue!

NOLA Blue

December 6th, 2010 at 10:20 PM ^

I'm not sure how losing to Ark, Ala, LSU and Aub is somehow superior to losing to Wis, OSU, MSU, Iowa and Penn St.  It's not who a team loses to, it's who they've beaten.  Miss State's "big" wins are Florida (7-5,) Georgia (6-6) and Kentucky (6-6.)  Michigan boasts UConn (8-4,) Notre Dame (7-5) and Illinois (6-6.)  Pretty even match-up if you ask me; therefore, Michigan deserves any tightening of the line that occurs.

fair warning

December 6th, 2010 at 9:26 PM ^

We won't lose to two "MSU" schools in the same season--we can't.  Although if the unthinkable did happen, I'm sure that Dantonio will find some way to take credit for it during recruiting visits.  I try to convince myself every day that that man doesn't have body parts neatly packaged and stuffed in his freezer.

mGrowOld

December 6th, 2010 at 9:30 PM ^

Damn I am going to get some of that line and quick before it drops.   My guess is by kickoff it'll be closer to 3.5 or 4 as the Michigan money drives the line backwards.

Usually i HATE betting Michigan but this line seems almost too good to be true. Hmmmm wonder why

tybert

December 6th, 2010 at 10:56 PM ^

I'm stunned that TCU is even favored. Would have expected them to be 4-7 pt dogs.

TCU has NO CHANCE to stop Wisky's running game. They haven't played a physical team like this in ages.

TCU is good and will put up a few points, but I see this one as a 41-31 game for Wisky.

Wisky is as good as any B10 team since the '06 Buckeyes/'06 Wolverines. No way that they lose this one.

tybert

December 6th, 2010 at 10:52 PM ^

MSU will be jacked, even though they are still new to bowls. They are playing the #1 NCAA team in wins and victory %.

Uncertainty among bettors about the future of M's coaching staff. What impact will that have on preparation???

Well, dammit!!!!!! Give me 6 points and we will win OUTRIGHT!!!!

jtmc33

December 6th, 2010 at 11:34 PM ^

And 7-5 Iowa +1 against 10-2 Missouri.

11-1 MSU +10.5 against 9-3 Alabama.

PSU +7 against Florida.

Wisconsin +3 versus TCU.

N'w +9.5 against TTech  (this one doesn't surprise me at all... no Persa is no good for N'w)

Illinois +2 against Baylor

OSU favored by 3 against Mallett's Hogs

Silverware

December 7th, 2010 at 12:09 AM ^

Only because I sent a text to my Sparty friend last night asking about his tuff draw wih Bama and he said "I am thrilled about the matchup."

Bama wins by 20...

Line for the Mich game will drop soon. Bulldogs got -3 for thier record and -3 for being in the SEC... A gambling man takes the bet now while its high...

Hail!

Blue since birth

December 7th, 2010 at 2:10 AM ^

The Auburn loss (probably MSU's most impressive game on paper) was early in the season. Auburn also squeaked out 3 point wins against Kentucky (6-6 team) and Clemson (6-6 in a weak ACC) in the first half of the season.

... I think that game loses some luster after closer inspection.

The second most impressive game on their resume (also a loss) was the triple(quadruple?) OT loss to Arkansas. Considering the evidence from the rest of the season I'm leaning toward the idea that Ark just got caught looking ahead to LSU.

Aside from those games (-at first glance) I don't see anything on their resume that strikes fear into my heart...

10-7 win over a Florida (7-5)... 12 pt win over a Georgia (6-6)... 8 pt win over a terrible Ole Miss (4-8)... 7pt win over Kentucky (6-6)...5pt win over UAB (4-8 and 3-5 in C-USA) ?!

I'm feeling pretty good about this matchup.

Blue since birth

December 7th, 2010 at 6:24 PM ^

I'm "crapping on their resume" by stating facts? About the only thing that was opinion or conjecture in my post (and was stated as such) was Ark looking ahead to LSU.

 

"for the love of God don't say Connecticut."

Why? Because it doesn't fit with your perception? I don't doubt for a second that UConn could play with Florida and Georgia on any given Saturday.

This tit-for-tat game-to-game equivalency BS is worthless. I looked at their schedule as a whole and I do not find it as impressive as some seem to... Mostly those who always seem able to convince themselves of the worst when it comes to Michigan football.

The great thing is we'll know in a few weeks who's got this one wrong. I'm totally comfortable with that.