Early Departures for the NFL Draft
Apologies if this has been posted in the past few days. Since Saturday, a ton of new threads have been made; and, although I searched for this topic, I didn't comb through every post since Saturday.
There have been a number of commenters suggesting multiple early departures, possibly from the OL, WR corp, Defense, etc. I won't pretend to be a "person in the know" when it comes to UM football, so maybe those closer to the program have their fingers on the pulse of the situation.
Nevertheless, I checked out multiple NFL draft boards, and the results seem to suggest few - if any - early departures. Obviously, players will make up their own minds based on whatever information they're receiving either internally or from the "market," but the results of my search were pretty surprising, given the concern expressed by posters on this blog. Not a single UM early departure is consistently listed as a draft pick in the first three rounds. Tarik Black was listed in one mock draft; DPJ and Nico Collins in others. But that's it...
Moreover, whether early departure or not, only one UM player was projected to go in the first two rounds overall (Ben Bredeson was projected to go late in the second round in the CBS mock draft)...and not a single UM player is consistently ranked in the top 75 "draftable" players...
Every year players make up their own minds about entering the draft, no matter where their stock is. Also, there are hundreds of mock drafts out there; so, some may have UM players rated higher than the ones I checked out. Nevertheless, it's safe to suggest none are going in the first round, and it seems to be a stretch as to whether anyone will go in Rounds 2 or 3.
Does that information dissuade some of those players from declaring? How much does "returning to college" actually raise draft stock? Is there a "round cutoff" like the NBA where - if you aren't gonna be selected as a lottery pick or early round 2 - you more often than not decide to come back to college? Should we expect a reasonably stocked roster for the bowl game, or will several players be sitting?
Just curious what the board thinks and whether or not this information changes your thoughts about who may or may not go pro early...
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:17 PM ^
Nico is gone, DPJ probably too.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^
I'm thinking the same. Nico has enough film for the scouts to see he's s stud.
DPJ will impress in a combine setting, so he may just decide to test the waters. Although, he would do well to return for a SR at his in state school for his long term opportunities.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:27 PM ^
I think there is a good chance DPJ comes back - I agree that his combine numbers will be stellar and help his draft position; however his numbers this year are not great due to his early season injury and the transition costs of the Gattis offense. Given the late season development of the offense and his injury healing, he is line to see his numbers and highlights will blow up next year and he can go from a 3-4th round to a 1-2nd round pick.
Also, he wants to go to medical school so graduating and possibly getting a start on med school classes must be an attractive option. It helps that his parents are very successful so he is not in a position where he needs to put food on the table for his family.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
You don't get "a start on med school classes." You just start medical school. If he actually wants to go down the path of becoming a physician (4 years med school, 3-8 years residency) but also wants to play in the NFL (good income to pay for med school), it might make sense to get started on an NFL career that will probably last 4-8 years.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:11 PM ^
I was originally going to say grad school classes. That being said, given what has been said publicly about this academic standing, I think Michigan med school would want a deserving kid like DPJ even if he has an NFL career - let’s call it the Jake Rudock program.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:26 PM ^
IIRC the Glasgow brothers in the NFL are both getting their MBAs while playing. I know med school is a different animal, but it might be possible to do both concurrently instead of waiting until after his playing days.
December 3rd, 2019 at 7:36 PM ^
No, no possible way to do both med school and NFL. If he does play a number of years in the NFL, I'm not sure there would be a financial incentive to go back to school and residency training for 10 years (assuming that he has the grades and test scores to even get in).
December 3rd, 2019 at 10:53 PM ^
One good thing that Michigan has going for them is the WR class is insanely deep with elite talent and depth. Nico and DPJ might not be in the top 10 WR in the draft which speak to the depth of the class.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
I don't know if DPJ got enough of a chance to really show scouts his skills this year to go as high as he would want. Though his measurables are certainly what the NFL is looking for so that might make up for it. Also we have to remember coming in that DPJ was huge on the education aspect so he might stay for that reason.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
Uche already announced he's playing in the senior bowl, so not coming back for a 5th year
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:29 PM ^
Was he eligible to come back? I don't think that was clear.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^
Bio on MgoBlue says he played in 4 games as a freshman. Rule didn't apply then but I'm guessing they could've gotten a redshirt granted if they'd tried.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:34 PM ^
That is actually helpful - though it is still unclear given that NCAA decision "guesses" and assumptions don't have a great track record.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:08 PM ^
Uche could absolutely get a medical redshirt. His freshman season was ended by a knee injury.
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:13 PM ^
For pre-rule you’d say he was hurt and get a medical year. It depends on which 4 games (if he played at different times in the season then it’s hard to blame an “injury”)
it’s all mute bc he’s playing in the senior bowl so whatevs.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:30 PM ^
The only reason everyone assumes DPJ is gone is because he was a 5 star out of high school and everyone assumed he'd be a 3 year player from the time he committed.
I believe he has a future in the NFL, but he's a high academic kid and I think he hasn't shown enough to get a high draft grade as a college player. He could lose a lot of money if he declares
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:04 PM ^
Exactly. If you look at all of his tape from this season, it's not great. He makes a good amount of eye-popping plays, but has an equal amount of boneheaded plays and drops. And 33 catches for 440 yards and 6 TDs doesn't exactly scream NFL WR. That's not even a top-100 WR in college.
His combine numbers should be great, but its a loaded WR class this season with a lot of guys who have performed a whole hell of a lot better. Feels like a 5th rounder. Which...maybe that's good enough for him to go. Maybe not.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:32 AM ^
Agreed, but the NFL has shown time and time again if your measureables really pop out, someone will take a chance on you (even if it never translates onto the field, time and time again teams will line up to take cance).
DPJ is a lot like Gary (not as extreme of course), in that his college statistics aren't amazing, but his sheer athleticism, strength, and physical build is.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:49 PM ^
I think that happens with a number of guys - really high recruiting ranking, gets a lot of buzz each spring and out of practice, Brian/others project big things but the reality on fall Saturdays doesn't match the spring/pre-season hype. Despite the performance on fall Saturday's people still think the player is going to be a high draft pick.
December 3rd, 2019 at 8:05 PM ^
He could lose a lot of money by coming back as well. If he leaves now, he will get an invite to the combine and show the main reason he was a 5 star in high school. He’s fast and athletic. Measurables and potential will make him a 2-3 round player.
If he comes back, he’s playing with a first year starter at QB and there’s no guarantee his numbers will improve and then he will be a 4 year guy who hasn’t produced. It’s a gamble either way.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:19 PM ^
Brian has written about this in various blog posts. Other have mentioned it in threads dedicated to talking about the depth chart (I think that post was yesterday). You may find many answers already on the board.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:12 PM ^
You may run like Hayes but you post like shit.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
This is a well done and appropriate post.
I would be mildly surprised if all 3 junior receivers came back - I would be happy if any two of them came back as that would give us great WR depth next year for Dylan or Joe.
The only other player I can think of is Cesar Ruiz.
Kwity Paye is a long shot as he is not a killer off the edge - which is what NFL GMs are looking for. Ambry would test well speed-wise, but I imagine he would want to come back next year to put some weight back on before the Combine underwear olympics.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
Nico, DPJ, Paye, and Ruiz leave.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
Disagree heavily that Paye will leave. Not saying he isn't a really good player but I don't think he has shown that consistent dominant pass rush that NFL teams are looking for in a pass happy league.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^
Our responses on this thread are nearly identical - I guess great minds think alike... LOL!
Paye can't leave, he has a chance to eventually be a solid NFL 3-4 DL but they are looking for edge monsters or unicorn-like pass rushing DTs out of early departures.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:26 PM ^
Paye got handled by Wisconsin and OSU. He needs another year. He isn't really the pass rush type at this time, but with another year he could become more of one. I'm real curious about Nico. People keep saying he is a stud, but I don't see it. He is a very good college receiver, but running around the high 4.5 to low 4.6 range he won't be as effective if the pro's.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:29 PM ^
yeah....no
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
It's hard to say as every player has their own calculations to make but I wouldn't be surprised if no one left early but Uche.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
I hope Ruiz, one or two of the big 3 WR's, and Paye stay.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^
These guys have a ton of resources at their disposal more reliable and valuable than some random NFL mock drafts. They will consult with the coaches and their families, get feedback and make the best decision for them individually.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
I guess the plus side to terrible player development by the coaches is that no one will leave early.
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
Not sure if I should down vote or up vote this....
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:10 PM ^
I wasn't as conflicted.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:14 PM ^
Yeah, whatever happened to those no-name 3-stars like Kwity Paye, Josh Uche, Mike Dwumfour, Ronnie Bell, Hassan Haskins, Josh Metellus, and Sean McKeon? They must have washed out of the program because we couldn't develop them into useful players.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:20 PM ^
Yeah, their development really showed last weekend.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:21 PM ^
Sssssshhh. You're interrupting his angar.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:58 PM ^
I'm really not angry. Just pointing out that, when you have less talented players than the opponent, those players need to be developed. Taking 3* and making them 3.5* isn't going to work against 5*.
I get downvoted but it has to be something. People say, it's not recruiting, it's not coaching, it's not the players. Well then, what is it? We have the same talent, level of coaching, level of development, but we get blown out every year. Almost lose to army? You guys are delusional.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^
Oklahoma almost lost to Army. UM blew out ND. OSU has dominated everyone it played this year.
UM is 3-17 vs OSU over the past 20 years. You should do a deep dive into why this is so instead of writing dumbass posts on here.
December 3rd, 2019 at 6:58 PM ^
The majority of the teams across the country are filled with useful 3 stars. If that’s the goal, mission accomplished.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:52 PM ^
Another one of your dumb ass responses. Is this inside info?
December 3rd, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
Honestly I think Ambry Thomas is more likely to leave (though still a small chance) than some of the other names mentioned in this thread like Paye, etc. He needs a little more bulk, but besides that has all the measurables the NFL is looking for and had a pretty good year. Unfortunately, I think he would be the guy they could least afford to lose as the secondary would most likely be a huge liability next year without him.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
Ambry is fast, but doesn't cover well enough to go pro yet.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:10 PM ^
I am pretty sure I read that he had one of the best advanced stats cover grades in the country at some point this year.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:16 PM ^
I just can’t imagine NFL types won’t tell him to wait a year and put on 15 pounds.
He is going to get pushed around and sat on by NFL WRs until he can get some weight back from his colitis fight.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
I mean I tend to agree, it is a small chance. I just think someone like Paye is even more of stretch to leave.
December 3rd, 2019 at 6:47 PM ^
On the flip side they could put him in there weight training program and watch his development more closely.
December 3rd, 2019 at 7:30 PM ^
But would they burn a spot on their 53-man roster to do that?