Early Departures for the NFL Draft
Apologies if this has been posted in the past few days. Since Saturday, a ton of new threads have been made; and, although I searched for this topic, I didn't comb through every post since Saturday.
There have been a number of commenters suggesting multiple early departures, possibly from the OL, WR corp, Defense, etc. I won't pretend to be a "person in the know" when it comes to UM football, so maybe those closer to the program have their fingers on the pulse of the situation.
Nevertheless, I checked out multiple NFL draft boards, and the results seem to suggest few - if any - early departures. Obviously, players will make up their own minds based on whatever information they're receiving either internally or from the "market," but the results of my search were pretty surprising, given the concern expressed by posters on this blog. Not a single UM early departure is consistently listed as a draft pick in the first three rounds. Tarik Black was listed in one mock draft; DPJ and Nico Collins in others. But that's it...
Moreover, whether early departure or not, only one UM player was projected to go in the first two rounds overall (Ben Bredeson was projected to go late in the second round in the CBS mock draft)...and not a single UM player is consistently ranked in the top 75 "draftable" players...
Every year players make up their own minds about entering the draft, no matter where their stock is. Also, there are hundreds of mock drafts out there; so, some may have UM players rated higher than the ones I checked out. Nevertheless, it's safe to suggest none are going in the first round, and it seems to be a stretch as to whether anyone will go in Rounds 2 or 3.
Does that information dissuade some of those players from declaring? How much does "returning to college" actually raise draft stock? Is there a "round cutoff" like the NBA where - if you aren't gonna be selected as a lottery pick or early round 2 - you more often than not decide to come back to college? Should we expect a reasonably stocked roster for the bowl game, or will several players be sitting?
Just curious what the board thinks and whether or not this information changes your thoughts about who may or may not go pro early...
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:28 PM ^
Yeah probably before the MSU game. He has looked worse each week since their freshman receiver had his way with him.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:29 PM ^
This is completely unfair to him and I hope it's not the case, but my guess is the NFL would also like to see him keep the Colitis in check for one more season before risking a high pick on him.
December 4th, 2019 at 5:30 AM ^
I would expect Ambry needs to be a full year removed from the medical issues he dealt with this spring and summer to be anything but a late-round pick. He needs to not only add the bulk but show that his body can keep it. He can do the former by the time the combine rolls around, but only time can prove the latter.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
Didn't the I'm staying / going announcements come out pretty quick last year?
I know Gary / Bush were on a different level, but if I recall they were being asked in the locker room after the OSU game about it. I don't think we have anyone this year like that, which is good/bad depending on how you look at it, but it's hard not to think Nico or Cesar, etc. wouldn't have fielded that question.
Either way, I would expect we'll see some "unfinished business" type posts in the coming days. Fingers crossed.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:28 PM ^
If I had to guess I would say
Collins- Leaves, think he has done enough and has the physical tools the NFL is looking for to go in at least round 2 at worst
DPJ- 50/50, doesn't seem like he got enough of a chance to shine this year to and has the potential to go much higher as the feature guy if Collins leaves, on the other hand the NFL might like his physical tools enough to give him a high enough grade.
Black- very little chance he leaves, just didn't get enough targets to get anything better than a late round grade
Uche- gone, already going to the senior bowl
Ruiz- kinda 50/50 on this one, he did not quite have the great year he was looking for, but his physical tools and potential to NFL teams might get him a high enough grade to leave.
Paye- very little chance, is not the prototypical pass rusher the NFL is looking for to get a high enough grade
Thomas- very little chance, needs more bulk and refinement to go high enough
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:09 PM ^
I think Black leaves, but in a transfer. Bad first two years for him with injuries, wasn't in the mix this season as a junior and was the 4th option at best a lot of times. Feels like a transfer is coming for a fresh start somewhere else his final year.
Lot of Aubrey Solomon vibes on this one.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:18 PM ^
He has not been a head case like Aubrey. He also has three years of eligibility left since he had his first 2 seasons killed by injuries. So he has plenty of time to get a lot of run here, even more so if Nico and/or DPJ leave.
December 3rd, 2019 at 7:07 PM ^
True. But also feels like someone that would look for a fresh start somewhere.
I have zero inside info, but I could see the Solomon coming from a mile away just reading the optics of how the season played out, and this one feels similar. Solomon was headed for a ton of PT and sure fire starting spot too, but had limited opportunities and decided to leave instead.
And he doesn't have three years left, he has 2. Played in the first three games as a freshman and got hurt. That goes down as a redshirt year -- medical or regular redshirt doesn't matter, still counts the same given that the injury happened in game 3. Played in the final 6 games as a sophomore, that counts as 1 year -- they can't claim that as a medical redshirt season. Played this season, counts as year 2.
Two seasons left. So depending on where his academics are at, he could graduate and grad transfer with 2 years of immediate eligibility elsewhere.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:35 PM ^
I don't see where he wasn't in the mix. He lost a ton of time to injury and maybe he lost a step but basically slid right back into the offense once he was ready. Especially if Nico and maybe DPJ leave he and bell are going to be options 1a & 1b.
December 3rd, 2019 at 7:12 PM ^
He was in the mix, but as the 4th option. Just 25 catches on the season -- and only 7 in the final 5 games. As a guy that started as the No. 1 WR his freshman season and was ahead of Nico and DPJ, and someone that's talked about as having an NFL future, can't imagine he's happy with that.
That's why I'm saying I wouldn't be surprised if he transferred.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
I could see Nico bolting but other than that I just don’t see it. Ruiz has a chance to be the top ranked center, maybe top interior lineman, in the 2021 draft. DPJ just started to find his groove towards the end of the year. Coming back and having a good 2020 season gets him a chance at a first round grade. Kwity is a mid tier pick right now and could benefit from another year of growth. Nobody else should really even be considering an early departure.
I get making some quick money is enticing but leaving early can be a huge mistake. I’ve posted in the past that Gentry made a huge mistake for leaving and got slammed for it because he made “so much money.” The truth is he got pennies by NFL standards and has been a healthy scratch almost every week and is looking at a one contract career(if not outright released) and nowhere near enough money to be set for life. Like many on this years team, he’d have been better off coming back, getting an insurance policy and try to increase their draft position for a bigger signing bonus.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:37 PM ^
Any news on Cheeseman?
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^
The only one I can think of right now where I almost certain is Nico Collins. I get the arguments for players like DPJ, Paye, Ruiz and a few others, but I think those guys need another year.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:20 PM ^
I'm not sure how much of a factor it would be, but this year's WR class is LOADED. None of our three WRs would be top 10 guys. Would it be worth it to leave early if you were going to potentially be the 15th WR taken?
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^
Whoever tries from Michigan will be behind the first 30 Ohio State gets drafted.
December 3rd, 2019 at 4:41 PM ^
You kind of answered your own question with regards to the decision to leave early - depends on each individuals personal situation.
As a rough barometer, I think most guys stay that extra year if they are not a day 2 projection or better (first 3 rounds); unless there are personal reasons that they don't want to or can't.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:22 PM ^
To be honest, I think all the juniors should stay. Don't get me wrong here, I do see NFL capability in some of them. But unfortunately, the stats do not back that up, I.E. wide receivers. Sure, a third round pick would be cool. But come back, get the stats and a few of them could be first rounders AKA, (DPJ, Colins). I just think it would be a better financial investment to enter the draft at a higher projected value.
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:39 PM ^
Nico
Uche
Ruiz
DPJ 50/50
December 3rd, 2019 at 5:44 PM ^
Is there something wrong in our program when OSU can convince a talented player like Jonathon Cooper to red shirt as a senior, yet we are having a conversation about DPJ going early when he has less than 500 yards receiving and has never had a 100 yard game in 3 years. Honest question if he had 3 stars coming out of high school instead of 5 would going pro even be a consideration.
December 3rd, 2019 at 6:20 PM ^
He got 5 stars because he has good "measurables". NFL GMs and scouts like those measurables, too. They love flashy 40 times, eye popping verts and smoking shuttles as much as college recruiting sites. Scouts at the combine will make a lot of excuses for a lack of productivity if you throw down a 4.3, "have fluid hips" and whatever buzzprase they like these days.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:23 PM ^
@Potomacduc I agree with you 100 percent.
December 3rd, 2019 at 7:28 PM ^
I just have a feeling Nico leaves but who knows. Everyone keeps saying Nico and DPJ will wow at the combine, but will they? I don’t imagine either are going to produce something there people are not expecting. Their height, weight, and speed are relatively known and this wr class is quite deep.
December 3rd, 2019 at 7:42 PM ^
I don’t think Nico will wow. He’s a big guy but will probably test average in all of the explosion tests. But DPJ absolutely would.That’s the only reason DPJ would even consider coming out because his film isn’t where it needs to be yet.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:51 AM ^
Nico is essentially N'Keal Harry who went in the 1st rd last year to the Patriots. Nico didn’t have the same yards as Harry in college, but almost as many TDs. His measurables and athletic ability are also right there. All it takes is the right team to want a big athletic receiver and Nico can go in the early rounds too.
December 3rd, 2019 at 7:33 PM ^
Offense could be really special next year now that it has been installed. 2nd year of a new system is usually when things get humming.
Nico probably leaves, but for all other players on the offensive side of the ball, might make sense to stick around and put up big numbers and inflate their draft stock.
Defense..what's the point. We'll be a top 20 defense again, and then get shredded by OSU again. Ambry may need to put on weight, but for anyone on the D-line, makes sense to get out of Dodge.
December 3rd, 2019 at 9:06 PM ^
If Funchess was a 2nd round pick AP is Nico