Does Iowa's loss move UM up the bowl ladder?
I think most UM fans had assumed UM was going to be relegated to the Insight Bowl, but with Iowa's amazing choke at Minnesota does UM's bowl position improve?
Iowa, PSU, UM and N'Western are all tied with an overall record of 7-5 with Illinois possibly joining the mix if they beat Fresno State in Fresno. While Iowa and PSU both beat UM and have better conference records, bowl selection groups could still take UM over one or both of those teams. UM still is perceived as a "brand name" team and has not been to a bowl game in the preceding two seasons which might be enough to secure a higher than expected bowl bid.
If I had to lay money on it (Hey jamiemac, do you want to make up the odds for this?), I think UM gets picked ahead of Iowa but behind PSU and ends up in the Gator Bowl at this point.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:13 PM ^
I'm not sure... Iowa has some more impressive wins, but they've also lost to some worse teams. I'd argue that Michigan has mostly done what they they were expected to do (probably with the exception of the PSU game). While I think Michigan is an attractive choice given the offense, some bowls may be leery of the defense. It might depend on what the bowl thinks of the matchup itself, i.e. who the opponent will be and how Michigan and Iowa individually stack up against them.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:25 PM ^
Some of the bowls will love our defense. Lots of scoring for the casual football fan.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:25 PM ^
Tbh, I think that the strong offense/horrible defense combo would help Michigan get into a better bowl. The ratins would be much better with a high scoring game than a low scoring one, and I think the bowl execs would make an effort to get an exciting brand name.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:13 PM ^
....and quite possible. I was sure that UM wouldn't jump PSU but they might be taken ahead of Iowa. I realize that they beat Michigan head-to-head but they have a couple of relatively bad (NW) and really bad (Minny) losses in the Big Ten. That might help Michigan's chances.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:15 PM ^
Iowa handled us easily in the Big House. They should have the advantage. However, BHGPs should be giving Brian some love for his preseason Iowa prediction. I guess we should be glad we didn't play Minny this year.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:25 PM ^
Could you imagine the meltdown that would've ensued if we had lost against MN?
November 27th, 2010 at 9:51 PM ^
November 27th, 2010 at 10:46 PM ^
of cash, b/c Iowa just gave him an extension thru 2020 in September
November 27th, 2010 at 8:17 PM ^
would normally be high for a team making a bowl after missing for two years. Two weeks ago, I would have agreed that Mich would bring some above-usual travelling dollars at 7-5. But that was before we got crushed in the last two. The fanbase doesn't seem too happy today, does it? Of course, Iowa nosedived too, and so which fanbase is more disappointed (or more to the point, expected to travel less)? I don't know.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:45 PM ^
November 27th, 2010 at 8:19 PM ^
I want to see the team play an easy opponent in a bowl, win, and take some momentum into next season.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:26 PM ^
I agree with you. I believe this might turn out to be a BAD thing for UM if they do go to a "better" bowl game (i.e. Outback or Gator).
UM probably would be better off playing in the Ticketcity or Texas bowl in terms of improving their chances to actually win the bowl game, but it's unlikely that they go any lower than the Insight.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:20 PM ^
You have a point with the Outback, but the Gator bowl is against the SEC #6 while the Insight is against the Big12 #4. So, Florida/Miss State or Missouri/Oklahoma State/Oklahoma/Nebraska? I'll take the Gator bowl on January 1st, pleas.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:48 PM ^
but if Brandon really is waiting until after the bowl game to evaluate, a better opponent means a better win and helps RR more. I'd like to see it myself actually - what do we look like against a good team when we don't make a million mistakes
November 27th, 2010 at 8:21 PM ^
.......earlier and was thinking it was possible. Wisky and tOSU will get BCS bowls, MSU to the CapOne. After that, you have five 7-5 teams(assuming Illinois wins next week at FresnoSt.). PSU has shown the best of those recently, although Iowa has the best win amongst them. Illinois is 4-4 in conference but we did beat them. I think with Iowa's recent woes that even though we lost to them, we will get chosen ahead of them, possibly because of the bigger draw prospects. IMO, PSU gets the Outback, UM to the Gator, Iowa to the Insight, Illinois to the Texas, Northwestern to the TicketCity.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:26 PM ^
They pick the team that is going to make them the most money. Michigan will be up there as a choice in terms of fan traveling, TV ratings, and general interest (Robinson, dynamic offense, etc).
November 27th, 2010 at 8:31 PM ^
.........is why I can see the Gator Bowl committee picking UM over Iowa.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:23 PM ^
And why Insight would pick UM over Iowa as well, which makes it a coin flip.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:54 PM ^
Unfortunately you are absolutely correct. Which means we play in a "better" bowl against a tougher team. I would much rather play down and I dunno....win or something.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:00 PM ^
I hear you. I want to win too, but I would rather not play down. I want Michigan to play the toughest OC as we can.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:09 PM ^
It only makes sense to play the best IMO. We have the most to gain from the best competition. I don't see a victory as beneficial as the practice and experience of the bowl process in general. Any team can win on any given day.
The sublety is lost on me...unless of course there is data out there that winning as a favorite in a bowl game translates to a better record the following year while losing as a underdog doesn't. I haven't seent that data - but it doesn't make intuitive sense to me - given the graduation effect from bowl games.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:31 PM ^
Michigan will pull better ratings than any of the other 7-5 schools and probably puts more fannies in the seats. PSU might travel a little better this year.
November 27th, 2010 at 8:47 PM ^
I kinda think if we want a winnable game....Texas Bowl vs Baylor?
or best bowl we can get....Insight Bowl vs. K-State?
November 27th, 2010 at 8:56 PM ^
........winnable game. I certainly want UM to win in their bowl game, but I also want UM to play the best OOC competition they can get in a bowl as well. Give the team roughly a month to heal up, with a month's worth of practices and let's see where we are.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:49 PM ^
hit the nail on the head. A nice break to heal and practice. Hopefully put in some new wrinkles. Does anyone think Odoms or someone else we haven't seen in a long time might be able to play?
November 27th, 2010 at 8:57 PM ^
What do you guys think of a Gator Bowl bid Vs. Florida. A rematch of the 2008 Capital One Bowl?
November 27th, 2010 at 9:36 PM ^
That would be a lot of fun.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:41 PM ^
I'm drooling. We could actually beat them (again).
November 27th, 2010 at 9:02 PM ^
The grouping of 7-5 teams (Penn St, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and possibly Illinois) haven't really done anything the last month to distinguish themselves. Penn St is probably the best looking out of the 4/5 since they haven't got dismembered in the last month. Sure they lost bad to OSU, but who didn't out of this group and the Nittany Lions have won 4 of the last 6. The worst is probably Northwestern since they have gotten smoked twice since Persa went down, so pencil them in to the lowest Big Ten bowl (Ticketcity). I think Penn St may actually snatch Iowa's supposed slot in the Outback bowl, Iowa would take the Gator Bowl, and we're still looking at the Insight with Illinois checking into the Texas Bowl.
If we had played closer today, I think you could make a case for us to jump as high as the Outback Bowl, but with all the issues we showed today, I think we're a classic Holiday Bowl type team-- match us up against another high flying offense/poor defense team and watch the scoreboard operators twitch with Carpel Tunnels syndrome afterward. The bowl committee for the Gator basically has to decide between Iowa with a more balanced team but disappointing record, or an interesting offensive team in Michigan but with a questionable fan base if they have a Freep subscription (wish it was sarcasm)...
November 27th, 2010 at 9:12 PM ^
But, if I have the choice, there is no way in hell I take anyone over Michigan this year. That's not me being a homer. I'm not trying to sell Michigan as the fourth best team in the conference. Unfortunately, we really are not. Nor do I feel entitled to go to a better bowl game just because we are Michigan.
However, if you are trying to sell tickets and ad space, just on the Michigan side of things you could generate a lot of buzz:
-incredible offense, lots of points one way
-young defense, lots of points the other
-easily one of the 10 most exciting players in college football today
-coach on the hot seat
-one of the largest alumni bases in the country (#2 IIRC) absolutely going through crack withdrawal after having the two year hiatus.
November 27th, 2010 at 10:05 PM ^
Which is why, as a poster above mentioned, it's a coin flip between the Gator (vs. #6 SEC) and Insight (Big 12 #6). Both bowls will likely pick us.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:36 PM ^
If we have 2 teams in the BCS, then MSU in the Citrus, and Iowa/UM/PSU in Outback. The other two will split the Gator and Insight on a coin flip, essentially.
If we have 1 team in the BCS, then OSU in the Citrus, and MSU in the Outback. Two of Iowa, PSU, and UM get selected to the Gator Bowl and the Insight Bowl. It's basically a coinflip between the top two teams on that list. I'd like to think that UM would be ahead of at least one of them. In the case that PSU and Iowa are picked ahead of us, we end up in the Texas Bowl.
Chances are that we are still in the Gator or Insight, but the chance of moving up to the Outback is probably better than moving down to the Texas.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:46 PM ^
.......two teams in BCS games this year. Wisky will be ranked 5th with tOSU right behind them. The LSU loss nearly guarantees it, although if SCarolina wins next week, the SEC will get two teams in. It's hard to imagine any BCS bowl picking Stanford over tOSU, although it could happen. There are four at-large berths and TCU is guaranteed one of them, which leaves 3 more. My guess is the B10 will get one of those.
Also, the Gator bowl, particularly if it's Florida as an opponent, will most assuredly pick UM based on history between the teams and the fact UM travels better than Iowa.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:54 PM ^
Stanford will finish in the top four of the BCS standings, guaranteeing them an at-large.
November 27th, 2010 at 10:09 PM ^
Wisconsin could jump them.
November 27th, 2010 at 10:07 PM ^
I was just laying out all of the (probable) scenarios. I agree that we should have two teams in the BCS, but it's not guaranteed. Gator Bowl can only pick Michigan if Outback doesn't snatch them up first and if Insight picks Michigan as well, a coin flip decides who gets them, which is why I said that it's essentially a coin flip. Even if both picked PSU and Insight won the coin flip, we'd be in the Gator Bowl.
November 27th, 2010 at 9:50 PM ^
I'd go to the Insight Bowl since it's driving distance for me, but playing in Florida has got to help with recruiting.
November 27th, 2010 at 10:17 PM ^
Except that Iowa beat UM like a drum just a few weeks ago.
November 28th, 2010 at 12:10 AM ^
One thing is being missed in this discussion. Sure Michigan is a brand name and might bring the television ratings. However, the people watching on tv don't spend money in that bowl game's city. Michigan has a rabid fan base but they don't travel as well as Iowa does. Iowa will bring a lot more fans to the actual game and that equals revenue for the city. If it comes down to UM vs. Iowa for a certain bowl, I bet they pick Iowa for that reason.
November 28th, 2010 at 12:25 AM ^
Iowa fans had high hopes this season and may not travel as well for a mid-level bowl. A perceived lack of interest from the fans could hurt them in the eyes of bowl game planners.