Dabo Swinney year-by-year record at Clemson

Submitted by RJWolvie on September 19th, 2019 at 2:09 PM

So, we've all heard it when noticing that Harbaugh is 0-4 vs OSU, 2-7 vs OSU+ND+MSU, 1-3 in bowls, & hasn't won a division championship, never mind a conference, or CFP birth: hah!... He's no Dabo Swinney. Well, I delved deeper in Dabo's record (& what he's done at Clemson is phenomenal; arguably the best coaching performance in taking a team from the dregs to NtlChampion powerhouse, maybe only Urban Meyer at Utah & Boise compares, (Saban had Alabama, so, I mean...)) (and let me also stipulate up-front: Harbaugh brought UM back from dumpster fire to 10-3 consistently, and .500+ records v. MSU, PSU, UW, all the conference except tOSU, & no more laughing-stock losses, but, and it's a huge but: we want more, we want that next step to & over the top: damn straight we do!)  ...but, anyway, I delved, and I was surprised: Dabo's record looks a lot like Harbaugh's actually year-to-year: (source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dabo_Swinney)

2008Clemson4–3[A 1]3–2T–3rd (Atlantic)L Gator

2009Clemson9–56–21st (Atlantic)W Music City24

2010Clemson6–74–4T–4th (Atlantic)L Meineke Car Care

2011Clemson10–46–21st (Atlantic)L Orange†2222

2012Clemson11–27–1T–1st (Atlantic)W Chick-fil-A911

2013Clemson11–27–12nd (Atlantic)W Orange†78

2014Clemson10–36–22nd (Atlantic)W Russell Athletic1515

2015Clemson14–18–01st (Atlantic)W Orange†, L CFP NCG†22

2016Clemson14–17–1T–1st (Atlantic)W Fiesta†, W CFP NCG†11

2017Clemson12–27–11st (Atlantic)L Sugar†44

2018Clemson15–08–01st (Atlantic)W Cotton†, W CFP NCG†11

What?! you say. He won a division championship his first full year, 2009, for starters. Yes, yes he did. With 2 conference losses, 9-5 season overall, and losses to both Clemson's 2 rivals: FSU (their OSU) & USCar (their MSU, only: LOL!), and a bowl win over Kentucky (supposedly good that year).

But surely he turned it on in 2010 and never looked back from there? Nope, 6-7 his second year, with two more losses to FSU and a bowl loss (Meineke Car Care, to USF).

Yes, yes, you say, but then he started winning his conference and never looked back, just in his 3rd year, 2011. Well... right you are, he won a conference championship! In the ACC..., with 2 conference losses and a 10-4 record overall, two more losses to their two rivals, FSU (legit still) and USCar (a top-20 team that year, actually): 0-6 now in year 3. Oh, and another Bowl loss, 1-2, a 33-70 (!!, not a typo) drubbing to W. Virginia...

Year 4, though, 2012 it was clear Clemson was BACK! (Back? If there, they were NOW there, hadn't ever been there before, but I digress...) 2012 was indeed a landmark year, 11-2, _tied_ for ACC (ahem) champs again, but once more and still: 2 more losses to FSU & USCar (0-8, if you're keeping track), and a bowl win in the Chick-fil-A against LSU (impressive). Maybe DS's record starting to look better than JH?  DS at this point has 1 division & 1 conference championship already, but won those on basically same records as JH's (and worse cumulative record), in the ACC Atlantic, and same 1-3 bowl, and worse 0-8 rivals, so: DS probably better? But not a laughably easy call, as many of us, including me before I looked, thought.

From 2013, year 5 (and a half, if you count the 7 games in 2008, 4-3), the ascendancy was complete, right? Well... Actually... That year and the next, the results: 2nd in ACC, no division titles, 11-2 (7-1) and 10-3 (6-2), which slightly better than JH yr 4 maybe?, and again 0-2 vs FSU & USCar in 2013 (that's 0-10 vs rivals) and finally, in 2014, a win v (mighty /s) USCar, but still a loss v. FSU (1-11 vs rivals).

Yeah, whatever RJWolvie, Harbaugh apologist, we know Clemson is dominant and always beats its rivals, wins ACC for sure, and competes for national championships, every year, and Dabo did that so fast, why can't Jim? Well, actually, it really does finally come together and more clearly into focus around then. 2015. Year 7. 14-1 (8-0), CFP, NCG (tough loss to AL). And they haven't looked back.

So, my point? Actually, DS to same point in his career had...maybe?...maybe a slightly better record (not win %, JH's is better, but record of comparable achievements? Maybe. But it's sure not a laughably easy comparison. DS' achievements, by which we rightly put him as among the best, arguably the best, among active coaches: those don't begin to take any kind of discernible shape until at least year 4(& a half) and not fully clear until year 7 (& a half). Before 4.5, JH arguably has a better record, but never mind...let's go back to blaming him for not turning 12 prior years of 0*-12* vs. OSU (really, you want to count win over 6-7 Fickel sanctioned team?), 7 prior years of dumpster fires (& 1 miraculous 11-2 year), for failing to turn that around into where Clemson is today (13 years post Dabo becomes HC) by now (short recruiting cycle & 4 years & 2 games)?

NOPE. The real questions are: do we think JH & UM are on a trajectory even somewhat like what DS' turned into? If not, do we think we can get onto such a trajectory with a change away from JH after this year, say, if it doesn't go "well"? Those are legit questions. I ponder them myself, but: The notion that JH has failed here is, in a word, LUDICROUS!, as also is, it turns out, the false-upon-closer-inspection notion that DS (and my guess is any other) has achieved such a turnaround into NtlChamp contenders elsewhere in less time than JH has had here.

...maybe this shoulda been a diary. (First time post; more of a TED talk, I guess, but had to get it out of my system after having done that deep dive.)

RJWolvie

September 19th, 2019 at 7:13 PM ^

Ah damnit. My bad. You’re correct. I went too quickly, they did beat FSU those years. Bad FSU teams, but I called them the other rival, so I’ll stick with it. (GaTech could also claim that role in the years it was better rival, but no fair of me to shift on that.) Point still stands: Dabo was 2-6 in first 4 years, just like JH, and 2-8 in first 5 years, hopefully JH will better him, and continue to better him as DS went to 3-9 in first 6 years. (Assuming, as we should not, that I haven’t made more errors. I’m more sure of the vs USCar record, because that was the one that started me pushing deeper.)

kurpit

September 19th, 2019 at 3:18 PM ^

OP has discovered the secret; if you fail to perform at the highest level, it's just foretelling a future of multiple National Championships! Only makes me wonder why Georgia didn't understand this with Mark Richt and Nebraska didn't understand this with Bo Pelini. If they didn't fire them they obviously would have won championships, because... y'know... vague parallels!

remdog

September 19th, 2019 at 8:44 PM ^

You miss the point entirely.

The point is that building a championship level program often takes many years.  If Clemson gave up on Swinney after 4-5 decent but not championship level years, it would have been a massive mistake.  They would have fired one of the best coaches ever and missed out on multiple national championships.

ijohnb

September 19th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^

This is a well written post, with a lot of information, so I am not trying to trample on your effort, but I think most people are a little bit tired of this discussion.  Both "has Harbaugh failed" and the Dabo Sweeney comparison.  Aside from vague statistical similarities between their early years there really is not much of a parallel. 

Is the question "are we still waiting on the Death Star?" 

Probably not.  It will still likely be a very nice aircraft with some cool lasers, though.

 

ijohnb

September 19th, 2019 at 2:44 PM ^

That is not and has never been my narrative.  This has just been a comparison that has been brought up like 74 times in the last year.  Jim Harbaugh's Michigan and Dabo Sweeney's Clemson just don't have much to do with each other.

Bodogblog

September 19th, 2019 at 3:01 PM ^

You typed, literally right above:

"Is the question "are we still waiting on the Death Star?"  Probably not.  It will still likely be a very nice aircraft with some cool lasers, though." 

I don't know if you realize this, but we can see your posts.  They're not invisible or anything. 

ijohnb

September 19th, 2019 at 3:13 PM ^

Ok man, here you go. 

Michigan is poised to breakthrough as one of the most dominant national powers in football, winning multiple conference championships and national championships, challenging Alabama for national superiority in the college football world.  And the reason that I know this is.... because Dabo Sweeney has done it at Clemson.

My mistake.

cKone

September 19th, 2019 at 3:51 PM ^

I don't know if anyone is saying that it's a foregone conclusion that Harbaugh will have the level of success that Dabo has had at Clemson.  I think the whole point of the Dabo argument is that with time a good coach can take a team that was in the cellar and build it into a successful team.  

A team that lost the recruiting battle to their biggest rival for 20 years straight doesn't simply turn it around.  It takes many recruiting cycles to get to an even talent/depth level.  The fact that Harbaugh has taken a team that was slightly better than a .500 team over the decade prior to his hiring, and has gotten it to 10 wins almost every year is a step in the right direction that many are trying to gloss over.  The talent is increasing year to year, and without even a hint of recruiting shenanigans.

If we truly plateau and what we've seen is simply what it is, my support may dwindle, but while I'm not happy that we haven't beat the likes of OSU, I don't see any level of future success for this program that doesn't include Harbaugh.  This is for the simple fact that no proven or up and coming coach is going to risk his future to come to Michigan if a coach with double digit wins in almost every season of his tenure is fired, especially since the fired coach is alum.

That's simply my opinion.  I've seen his success at previous stops, and I have to believe that he will improve given time.  I've also seen other formerly successful programs that change coaches every 5 continue to move in the opposite direction.

ijohnb

September 19th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^

It is a different conference, a different recruiting pool, different program history, much different kinds of coaches, different fan-base expectations.  I mean, if the parallel is "started off kind of shaky, went through some almost years, finally broke through to the elite and now owns the world," the first two are kind of sort of similar, but so are literally dozens of coaches all over the country. 

Bodogblog

September 19th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^

  • Different conference: of course, if you stayed within the B1G it would be impossible to find a model similar to Harbaugh at Michigan 
  • Different recruiting pool: of course, because, you know, they're different schools; Clemson/Dabo probably have an easier time recruiting elite players 
  • Different program history: of course, because if they had the same or similar program history you'd only be talking about Notre Dame, Texas, or ? 
  • Different kinds of coaches: /reads again.... Of course they are different, that is required to make a comparison 
  • Different fan base expectations: meaningless to coaching performance 

gasbro

September 19th, 2019 at 9:53 PM ^

Was Dabo on his 5th stop as a head coach, had he been to the super bowl, did he have his choice of open NFL jobs, was he the hottest commodity in football coaching?

one similarity: they had fans after year 4 still hoping they would lead the team to multiple championships in the future 

RJWolvie

September 19th, 2019 at 2:21 PM ^

year 2, that's "two more losses to FSU [and USCar]" of course; Can't figure out how to edit, and no they didn't figure out how to lose to FSU twice in one year. They drew their losing to FSU out for 7.5 years, until finally beating them in as #3 Clemson vs #16 FSU in 2015.

MGoStrength

September 19th, 2019 at 2:26 PM ^

I have trouble reading your writing and don't understand what the numbers mean at the top.  I appreciate the work you put in and you have a good point as far as I can tell.  But, I don't think the real question is if JH and UM are on a trajectory similar to Dabo & Clemson.  The question is can UM do any better than JH?  Personally the only thing I think is wrong with JH is losing to OSU and I don't think it's all his fault.  Clemson's ascension coincided with FSU's downfall.  Unfortunately, OSU isn't going anywhere.  I personally don't think UM can keep up in recruiting with OSU in the current landscape of CFB and is doomed to be second in their division until something changes like paying players.  We just don't have the in state talent and we have more competition for them.

MGoStrength

September 19th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^

OSU’s recruiting edge explains why they should win more often than not against U-M. Doesn’t mean they should win every game.

Agreed, but OSU's tradition is built upon beating UM.  UM's is not to the same degree.  Bo was and so was Hoke, but unfortunately Hoke wasn't a good coach.  Rich Rod was not and for some reason JH also doesn't seem to be as obsessed with beating OSU as Meyer was with beating UM.  There is also the fact that it's the last game of the year every year so it's harder to upset the better team and they have more depth so injuries tend to hurt UM more than OSU.  This year it may be beneficial since we have a new offense and they play PSU the week before, but usually it hurts us.

1VaBlue1

September 19th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^

"Clemson's ascension coincided with FSU's downfall."

We can make the case, easily, that both OSU and MSU ascended when Michigan began it's descent into hell.  I think it's fair to say UM started heading south post-2006, though Lloyd started his trail-off a little earlier (despite the 2006 season).  That's really when OSU turned up the pressure, also.  And certainly MSU rose because Rich Rod showed up in the Big Ten (yeah, I'll blame that on RR!).

The looser rules OSU can employ via recruiting will help to stymie JH's teams.  But that will be the case regardless of who's coaching Michigan.  I think he's doing fine, despite the 0-fer against that truck stop cess pool.  He'll beat them eventually, several times.  This year?  I dunno, but I certainly hope so...

Brianj25

September 19th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^

We recruit better than Clemson. 

They get their advantages from strategic but controversial roster manipulation via grey-shirting as well as abnormal use of PEDs, e.g. the Ostarine scandal. That allows them to field players who are older, more experienced, more mentally and physically mature, bigger, stronger, faster, and recover from injuries more quickly. That is how they've come to rival 'Bama despite recruiting drastically worse than 'Bama. 

lostwages

September 19th, 2019 at 4:43 PM ^

And I think THIS... is the answer, right here... to many of the differing posts on this blog.

We need a QB who's a force to be reckoned with, and a field general. We've thought we had it, unfortunately Shae is a bit of a dud. And supposedly we have the "QB Whisperer" in JH (what's that mean), just that he has a way of transferring his knowledge and experience to young QB's, so they see things that others don't, and make better decisions on the field.

When was the last time we had an elite QB? I think this is why some of the fanbase is upset with Harbaugh, he was supposed to bring that element back to UM.

HailHail47

September 19th, 2019 at 11:05 PM ^

We’ve really been very good at QB since Harbaugh has been here. Rudock, Speight, and Patterson statistically have been very sound. May not be elite, but pretty darn good really. Besides OSU, we have had the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten over the last 5 years. Heck, our fourth string QB is a starter at Illinois. 

RXwolverine

September 19th, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^

So what your sayin is if harbaugh fails this year then he sucks... I’m fine with that argument. Only problem is some bozos will still defend him even if he doesn’t win the division or beat Ohio state this year. Let’s take it one step at a time. Beat Wisconsin!!