Conference Expansion - who might be going where - P5 conferences, SEC 8 game schedule
Some interesting articles recently about the next round of conference expansion. Obviously, the Pac-12 is being targeted, with comments about two teams bolting for the Pac-12. Then, there's the Grant of Rights in the ACC.
So, what's been written recently. First - the Big 12, and two teams that are being targeted - Colorado and Arizona. Obviously, Colorado has history with the Big 12 - Coach Prime is garnering a lot of attention, and the lack of a media agreement for the Pac-12 may accelerate this. Would anyone have thought the Big 12 would have a more attractive media agreement than the Pac-12? This seems plausible. https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/ncaa-football/college-football-expansion-big-12-colorado-arizona-report
The ACC has a group of seven teams that might challenge the Grant of Rights collectively. Those seven teams are: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Miami, NC State, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.
Certain reports say the B1G has vetted ten (10) teams. Five teams from the Pac-12 and five from the ACC. Pac-12 tams: Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington, and Utah. From the ACC: Duke, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Virginia. Here's a link: https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/news/ohio-state-buckeyes-big-ten-expansion-acc-pac-12-programs-dissovlement.
An interesting perspective about the SEC from Tim Brando - noting Greg Sankey backing off from a proposed 9 game conference schedule, and a view about Finebaum. The ACC is the most likely conference the SEC is going to target - with potential additions being Clemson, Florida State, and Miami. https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/tim-brando-blasts-greg-sankey-paul-finebaum-over-secs-decision-to-play-8-league-games-in-2024/
There's no reference to the school in South Bend - and, that's fine with me. I do wonder what the CFP will structure to either force ND's hand, or - set a guideline that an 8-4 ND squad is part of the expanded playoff. Ahh, to hell with ND.
Who knows when the next round of expansion will begin - but, it's a never ending topic.
Any thoughts?
Vetting a school doesn't mean they would be approved or offered. It just means they have done the math on their value.
I agree on the definition of vetting - as far as I'm concerned it really translates to - the conference is (or has) looked at these teams. There's no implication of a team having passed - or not passed - any criteria.
One thing that seems interesting is - four time zones - coast to coast.
It sounds like the addition of Arizona would make the Big 12 a coast to coast conference. The B1G is already there - however, there aren't any Mountain time zone teams, which won't be a problem.
I agree that the east teams that were vetted, are spot on perfect for the conference. I don't like the choice of Utah or a second Bay Area school. Although great academic schools, we only need one. There's just not a lot of value added with a second San Francisco team or Utah. The Big Ten should have been vetting Colorado and one of the Arizona schools instead. They're the bigger prize when you consider their markets and value they add. More importantly, you're allowing the Big 12 to re-fortify itself as a contender when they were totally on their way out and into obscurity as a conference.
Best options here are include Colorado and one of the Arizona's. instead of Utah and one of the Bay area Schools. That gives you 7 schools out west if you include UCLA and USC. I would make room for Notre Dame and sacrifice N. Carolina or Duke for the same reason I'd Sacrifice Cal or Stanford. (you don't NEED both). if the Big 10 expands to 12, 14 or 16 teams Syracuse, BYU, a Boston area team, Ok. State and the best Texas team left (probably Baylor or TCU).
Total Lockdown!!!!
TV markets are the old way of thinking, and in any event, adding Nebraska forced TV providers to add BTN in the Colorado market 10 years ago. What matters now is brand value and whether a team will draw TV ratings in an era where almost all games are televised nationally. Arizona and Colorado aren't cutting it. The contenders are Washington, Oregon, Florida State, Miami, and maybe some other ACC schools, and even those schools might not make it if the numbers don't check out. My personal preference is for Washington/Oregon.
Btw, not sure what you mean by "second" Bay Area school. Both USC and UCLA are in LA.
not sure what you mean by "second" Bay Area school
I initially thought the same thing you did, but then realized that I think DMack means that if the B1G added one team from the Bay Area, that would be sufficient and that they shouldn't add a second.
For that matter, should they have only added one LA team, not two? (The state school is a better "fit" academically and research-wise and brings a larger alumni base, the private school brings more recent athletic success and TV brand recognition).
No, USC, UCLA and Bay Area School 1 would definitely want Bay Area School 2 to join, as would any other west coast team joining. It would make travel etc. for all non-football sports a lot more feasible as they could easily play both opponents in a single trip, especially those travelling from the east and midwest.
Furthermore, from the standpoint of B1G universities and their presidents, why would you want to exclude one of the country/world's premier academic institutions when you can have both? You certainly wouldn't/shouldn't.
Chuck, that's precisely what I meant. I get that they are both premiere academic institutions and would love to have both but once you have added one, I think you want to evaluate how much more bang you get for adding the other. The argument that USC and UCLA are in the same town is comparing apples or oranges to pears. Sure, they are both grow on trees but just way more apples get sold. LA is the second biggest city in America and the entertainment hub of the world. Comparatively, USC and UCLA are the apples or the oranges and worth a heck of a lot more in the big picture, as opposed to pears. Sure, the state of California is big enough to handle 4 teams but will 4 teams bring the most revenue to the table, which is what this is about. Money, presence in an area, future growth, brand value and the Big 10 being able to market the whole store. I would love to see Cal and Stanford but it only makes sense if the Big 10 went to 24 or 28 teams. Which pear in the bay area has the most value? I think it's Stanford so that's who I'd pick unless there was room.
I honestly don't like the Utah pick because It's a fly-over state. In reality BYU is the bigger fish with legit brand value. UNC and Duke are in the same state but they have name recognition and sell a lot of T-shirts throughout the country. Arizona and Colorado are strategically more important than a 2nd Bay area school because they add to the geographical footprint and have growing populations. That means potential growth of the fan base, which is not all alumni driven. Texas has a brand value and presence out of this world because of the population in the state and they buy T-shirts and go to games. a Texas school needs to be in the conversation. Syracuse is another example and should be in the conversation. They have brand value, and they market to NYC like no other school in the area except U. Conn. and NYC is the largest city in America. Miami, Fl. State, GT, and a Boston area school make perfect sense too.
All in all, I'm just saying that it's not all about about what schools have the top research professors. That has little to do with whether or not the league increases it's value, it's footprint, and it's marketability in an athletic league. Fortune favors the brave, expand to 28 teams with 4 divisions that spread across the entire country. Folks can have their 2 Bay area schools plus N.D, we get this expansion b.s. out of the way so that there is stability and we get truly competitive college sports again.
Those ACC teams don't seem to move the needle much. Basketball schools for the most part. Guessing they will get some more west coast teams. ND is dumb if they don't contact the BIG now. All their traditional rivals minus the academies are in the BIG.
North Carolina has a bigger population than Michigan....and is growing rapidly. It's a Top 5 public university and has been National Champs in basketball three times since any B1G school has done it. I think that moves the needle a little bit.
I realize that the West Coast teams need some partners (Oregon and Washington?) but I think that UVA and UNC make a lot of sense for the B1G from geography and academics standpoints.
The state with the largest population and neither a Big Ten nor an SEC team is:
North Carolina
more people= more TV sets = potentially more revenue
New York has a bigger population than North Carolina. Rutgers is in New Jersey.
Yes, but very few are interested in College Football.
Its not just TV sets (which got Rutgers into the BIG), but now streaming services as well. Which schools have enough clout they would add plenty of streaming subscriptions to justify adding them to the league.
Given that lens, UNC really looks appealing. The only issue is that streaming services are so new to the market, it is hard to forecast future potential revenue.
Looking at which schools could bring in the most bang for their buck, I would say... Miami (YTM), UNC, Washington, and Oregon.
I also find it interesting that ASU just got their AAU status as well, but have heard very little about them even though they reside smack in the middle of a top 10 media market...
I think it'd actually be New York. And everyone from the '90s remembers 'Cuse, fondly or not.
I'm not being completely tongue-in-cheek - 'Cuse, like UNC (and every NC school) is a basketball school that has had some success at football. But I think most people agree, they'd only be slightly better as an addition than Rutgers and Maryland. UVA gives me heavy Maryland vibes. UNC gives me 'Cuse vibes. I thought this round was about "brand name schools" for the tv networks, not necessarily getting the BTN on more cable sets. Personally, UNC, UVA, VT and basically the whole ACC that isn't Clemson/FSU/the U - I just don't see them as more than 'Cuse. GT included, altho I love Atlanta. As for the Pac12, I definitely see it with Oregon, sorta see it with Washington. Stanford is a very different brand name but yea, I get it. Cal looks like the ACC schools to me. Utah is interesting...an up and comer for sure with more runway than other up-and-comers. My analysis is they're more than Cal, less than Stanford and Oregon, somewhere around Washington but slightly less.
Syracuse's brand isn't what it used to be in the 90s when I was growing up and they were legit in both basketball and football. But, I also thought they were a weirdly good fit for the B1G - they're kind of in the footprint - not far from Penn State and Michigan/Michigan State. I thought they were a better fit than Nebraska/Maryland/Rutgers and probably made more sense in the B1G than ACC. I guess Syracuse is not really an outstanding academic school though (looks like it's tied with Minnesota and not much worse than Maryland and Rutgers).
It would be weirdly cool to see the conference add ND and steal Kentucky (a team also in the footprint) and Syracuse for basketball purposes. But in the grand scheme of things that won't really make much sense.
Next after NC would be Arizona perhaps?
I could see ASU coming if AZ is going Big 12. Stanford or ND would be a good pairing there until the ACC weasels their way out of the GOR.
Virginia, I think.
As a state, I agree. As a TV market I would think Maryland would cover the bulk of the DMV.
I like the idea of partners for the West Coast teams in Oregon, Washington, Stanford and even Utah as it bridges that gap to the Midwest (Nebraska/Iowa etc.). That's 20 though. NC is fine by me if the numbers work, but feel like getting that Carolina market is only necessary if they also want to go after Miami and FSU. That brings them to 23 which is insane. Throw any 4th school in there (VT, Duke?) And then you have a 24 team super conference that could essentially have its own college Super Bowl or play the SEC in a winner take all. Which is ultimately where I see this going.
BIG/SEC is the new AFC/NFC.
If that all happened then the 24th team would likely be Notre Dame.
Good points for population size, but from your own admission, they are a basketball school. They fit all the other aspects of the BIG conference, but I assume most decisions are based on football and money. NC isn't a big pull for football. They would probably be at the top of the list for another east coast team. They'd be a better pick up than Rutgers and Maryland, so I can see it happening. ND seems like it would increase the dollar amount the most for the conference.
North Carolina has a bigger population than Michigan....and is growing rapidly. It's a Top 5 public university and has been National Champs in basketball three times since any B1G school has done it. I think that moves the needle a little bit.
Respectfully disagree.
The NCAA men’s basketball tournament contract is worth $1.1B per year. The expanded football playoff is expected to be worth double that, despite having one-sixth as many games (11 in football, 67 in basketball). Football dwarfs basketball.
If basketball success truly meant something, UConn wouldn’t be perpetually ignored in realignment. Connecticut’s problem isn’t size; its population is greater than Nebraska’s. It’s that football is the driver.
On that score, UNC is much like UVa or Georgia Tech: schools that fit the B1G profile but don’t address the primary issue. The time for a UNC was when acquiring cable subscribers was still a thing.
I, of course, want to go back to 10 schools. However, since the horse is out of the barn...
UNC and UVA are probably both Top 5 public schools along with Michigan, Cal, and UCLA. Needless to say they are Flagships in their state.
The States of North Carolina and Virginia rank 8th and 12th in population. These are the two largest states without a B1G/SEC school.
Both schools have broad, successful athletic departments, often finishing in the Top Ten in the Learfield Cup.
These two schools have the best fit and look most like current B1G schools. I think the academically elite Presidents/Chancellors in the B1G start here.
Notre Dame is obviously a slam dunk if they want in. And then adding FSU and Miami. After the ACC is sorted out, only then do I see the B1G taking a second look out West. Now they have more teams in the East, so the amount of road trips out west are more split up.
Football is the engine of this whole thing and UNC is Maryland level at best in that sport…..not bad but not great either….
rather have FSU…..bigger population state than NC with more eyes on TVs….former football superpower that can get back to that level with minimum difficulty and raise the quality of play as a whole in the B1G….
We should take Stanford, Cal, Duke and Ga. Tech and then withhold any new technologies or discoveries that come out of the Big Ten from anyone living in the SEC footprint. Football is war, right?
At least as far as Volunteer fans are concerned, it may be too late.
https://www.theonion.com/u-s-intelligence-confirms-the-hillbillies-have-the-bo-1819564065
Alright Frank I'm in.
What's the vig
I'd rather play more in conference games than play more random cupcakes, especially with larger conferences.
I agree with you. I would be quite content if the conference season was ten games, and two OOC games per season.
The opener could be a lower level opponent - let's say a G5 team. Then, a P5 opponent with a decent to very strong reputation - such as the Oklahoma or Texas games already on the schedule. Then - get into conference play - whether it's two divisions - or pods.
My only hope would be that in any given four year period - a school will play, both home and away, every other school in the conference. It's a great experience for the students - and, the student athletes.
I've said this before - the Big Ten should add four teams and have two divisions based on seniority within the conference.
Each division should play a 9 game conference schedule entirely within their own division. (Sorry Penn State.)
Get off my lawn.
It's basically already two leagues for the CFP era - the east and the west. If they hadn't expanded they may have taken steps to remedy that. But at this point, that cat's way out of the bag. May as well lean into it and make it officially two leagues, keeping rivals together. Or make it "the name brands" and "the other brands" which is what the tv networks really want.
Thanks for the summary. The SEC going after Clemson and FSU seems to make the most sense of anything floating around out there and I assume MOAR EXPANSION is inevitable for the B1G and SEC especially.
As the playoff expands and the 'have' conferences get bigger I hope the result is more competitive games. I'd rather see Michigan play against an SEC / ACC / B12 slate in the non-conference than what we have this year in ECU, UNLV and Bowling Green.
Agree re: Clemson and FSU. They're already practically SEC teams in spirit, if not in reality.
Thanks for posting this. It seems obvious that the BIG needs more West Coast teams now that USC and UCLA are in the conference next year, which is coming in a hurry.
Other articles mention that Flordia State and the U are being targeted by BIG as well so that the BIG gets a recruiting footprint in FL.
No one knows yet and around and around it goes!
I suspect the Big Ten is waiting for the Big 12 to take the next turn at poaching a few schools. They'll take CU, AZ, ASU and Utah, which will essentially kill the conference. The Big Ten will take whatever they want from the leftovers and the rest will join the MWC.
If we're destined for a Power 4, here's how I'd go about it ...
Big Ten: All current + USC, UCLA, UNC, ND
SEC: All current + Clemson, Miami, FSU, Virginia Tech
Big 12: All current + Cincinnati, Houston, BYU, UCF, Louisville, Pitt, NC State, Utah, Arizona, ASU, Colorado.
P4 Ivy League: the universities that actually mean it when they value academics but do not invest enough into football to be the right fit in the other three: Boston College, Syracuse, UVA, Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, Army, Navy, Air Force, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Cal, Stanford.
The ACC and Pac 12 are just not going to make it in the long run I think. The P4 Ivy would be solidly the #4 football conference, and establish their own transfer rules. And I feel bad leaving Washington State and Oregon State to the Mountain West. But if they would join the Big 12, that conference could be so big that they split into two power conferences, especially with some smart adds like Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State, and Memphis.
Splitting Carolina and Duke is not going to happen, lol. They are a package deal, and you want the package anyway for the Tobacco Road rivalry in basketball.
See that's what I'd think too, but when I've listened to Sam and Ira talk about expansion in recent weeks and topics of the ACC come up, the school that is always explicitly mentioned with UNC is NC State, as if those two are some kind of package deal. I never hear them mention Duke's name once, which to me doesn't make sense.
NC State, at least to me, doesn't move the needle at all. Duke may not provide eyeballs for football, but they would make up for it with basketball. One of the top 2-3 programs in America, if not the top. When they play, everyone watches.
If the Big Ten brings on Carolina, they'd better not be bringing NC State with them. To me that's just adding dead weight.
it's a state government thing - the state of NC will fight for NC State (public, state funded) over Duke (private).
Wasn't this said about Oklahoma too though?
but now that the UC system is making UCLA throw some money Berkeley's way, there may be something to it
UCLA's calimony is a one-time $2-5 million payment. It was just grandstanding by the Board of Regents. State-level politicians have proven themselves rather powerless to stop realignment once it's happened. If the NC Legislature was serious about keeping UNC and NC State together, their best would be prospective action instead of waiting for someone to poach UNC. By then, it's too late.
This is about Money…Carolina is pushing to leave the ACC, while Duke has stayed silent. They know they can add value to a conference and would leave Duke in a heartbeat if it meant getting significantly more money for the athletic department
Most sports fans want to watch Duke/UNC play basketball, but, aside from ACC partisans, wouldn't care if it's in-conference or not. If they are in different conferences they could still play 1-2 games each season.
Sounds like a good plan.
Overall good, but the BIG wants a presence in FLA, so I don't see both Miami and FSU going to the same conference. Particularly, I read some where that UF doesn't really want either school in the SEC (I believe this was discussed in a MGoBlog Round table).
Agreed. There are certain SEC followers who don't think any of the schools mentioned should be considered. Those mentioned schools are - Clemson; where they feel South Carolina has a strong enough presence - and FSU / Miami; where they feel Florida has a strong enough presence.
When I compare this to the B1G landscape - there are a few states with multiple schools in the conference. Those states are Michigan - with our Wolverines and the Spartans, Indiana with IU and Purdue, and Illinois with Northwestern and the Illini.
Florida has enough of a population, as well as a geographic size to absorb another school, IMO.
B1G adds Cal and Stanford... then tells ND that if they want to play any of their 'rivals' that aren't academies.... join the conf. or pound sand....
OR and WA most likely will be added prior to Cal and Stanford, but those are my thoughts.
This is the ideal scenario to me and it makes sense historically speaking, but I won’t hold my breath. Would rather the PAC-12 remained as it was but that ship has sailed. I hope it stops after those last additions. Don’t want the Florida schools. They don’t fit historically or culturally.
The Big Ten (I'm still not calling it that other name -- I know, it's a weird hill to die on, given what I'm about to say) should add Stanford and Notre Dame, and Carolina and Duke. The rivalries would be outstanding, the academics are excellent and these schools have tons of strong programs across various sports (see the Director's Cup standings every year), and after all we've got Northwestern so it's not a strict requirement to be a football powerhouse. We'd become THE basketball superconference, RDU is a very quickly growing market, and it would be great to be able to attend a Michigan football game close to home every once in a while.