College Football: four weeks to go.. general discussion and perspectives
We’re entering the last four weeks of the regular / conference season with a lot still to play for. This is a thread for general conversation on the status of college football prior to the release of the first CFP rankings later this week.
Here are some of mine:
1. There seems to be more parity this season than in years past. The P5 undefeated teams include: Georgia, Michigan, OSU, Florida State, and Washington - with four of the P5 conferences represented.
2. SEC: Georgia is still very strong - with or without Bowers. Bama’s demise might not be “all that”. Tennessee doesn’t appear as threatening as some predicted. LSU is underperforming.
3. Pac-12: Washington and Oregon are solid / very good - and Oregon could be the best one loss team in the country. USC still doesn’t play defense. Arizona is going to surprise more people. Colorado needs more depth in the trenches.
4. ACC: It’s Florida State - with Louisville being a step behind (for the moment). Clemson, North Carolina, and Duke are fading quickly from the sunlight - perhaps like a vampire (in recognition of Halloween).
5. Big 12: It’s wide open. Several good teams - but, in a four team CFP - could they be on the outside looking in? Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa State ( if you can believe it) - are all in the race.
6. B1G: (saving the best for last). It appears to not only be the WWW (Wild, Wild West) - but also the WOW - Wide Open West. I think four teams are tied for the Division lead. And, in the East - a couple of very interesting games still to be played - the Maize & Blue traveling to State College and hosting the Buckeyes. I don’t overlook or take any team for granted. And, based on what I’ve seen of the B1G East teams - I like Michigan’s chances.
What do you think? Anything you’re looking forward to seeing? Enjoy…
Go Blue!
October 29th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
The only thing that can stop Meechigan from winning the B1G is Meechigan!!! This group is laser focused and with what has gone on will only unify them more .
October 29th, 2023 at 11:17 AM ^
agree 100
October 29th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
Need to do more than win the BIG!
October 29th, 2023 at 10:25 AM ^
It's getting hard to enjoy the season when every pregame, halftime, and postgame show feels it's necessary to mention the sign-stealing investigation involving the notorious Michigan Wolverines.
October 29th, 2023 at 10:25 AM ^
Ryan Day will not beat the allegations that he is bitchmade SOFT.
October 29th, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
〽️🐶🍢🦴
🦆🌰
👌🐮🌊
...🦈🐯
October 29th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^
Michigan dogs skewer bones.
Ducks onion.
Okay cows wave.
Beware shigers.
October 29th, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
Michigan appears to be on a different level than any team in B1G and probably the country, UGA being the only real question in my mind.
ACC is bad. FSU is okay but not really in Michigan’s league. I was at a friend’s last week and we watched their game last week side-by-side with Michigan and I the difference in skill and polish was obvious. I remember watching Alabama a few years ago and thinking they looked like a pro team playing college teams. That’s how I feel about Michigan this year.
In Big 12, OU losing seemed inevitable. I think Texas has more talent but a worse coach.
PAC is fading. UW will lose soon.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
FSU is okay but not really in Michigan’s league. I was at a friend’s last week and we watched their game last week side-by-side with Michigan and I the difference in skill and polish was obvious.
Was that was a good comparison? FSU played a decent Duke team while Michigan beat up on a hapless smoking crater in East Lansing.
The times I've watched FSU this season it appeared to me that they've got a great deal of speed at the offensive skill positions—unless we were able to get meaningful pressure on Travis I think their WRs would be a stiff test for our secondary.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
I think for me FSUs struggles against BC and Clemson are what stick out more to me. Duke is a good team.
I also think we are selling Oregon short. They've looked very good outside of part of the game in Lubbock. Washington being shaky a week after an emotional win isnt too crazy, struggling with Stanford the next weekend is more alarming. I think the Pac12 winner is for real, whichever of those 2 it is. UGA has flashed but also has had some real struggles against bad teams M ain't played nobody. OU has one great win and a lot of other 😬, I think they stay ahead of Texas/Bama for now but it's close. There are 6 schools that control their destiny and other than OSU theyve all looked great at points but have a flaw in their resumes. OSU hasn't looked great but does have 2 good wins on their resume.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
Duke is good but didn’t their starting QB leave the game? And I believe that’s when that game turned in the Noles favor.
October 29th, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
Louisville is looking better than Florida State. A one loss ACC team won’t make the playoffs. Louisville beats FSU in the championship.
Oregon looks better than Washington. A one loss Pac12 team will make the playoffs. Getting through the Pac12 schedule for any team with only one loss is challenging. I bet Oregon beats Washington in the Championship.
Assuming Michigan gets by PSU. As always, the winner of Michigan OSU goes to the playoff. Michigan will be angry about Day’s slimy defamation job. Michigan of course
Georgia. Why bet against them.
A one loss TX could make the playoffs because of the overrated Alabama victory. A one loss OK is less likely even if they beat Texas again.
With
Michigan or OSU
Georgia
And Oregon in
The last spot will be between the winner of the Big12, the loser of the Big Game, the winner of the ACC (unless FSU is undefeated), and a one loss Alabama
The 1st college playoff rankings coming out Tuesday and will prove me wrong.
October 29th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
How is Texas win against Bama in Tuscaloosa overrated? This might not be the Bama team of the last few years but most analytical rankings (SP, FEI) have Bama around the top 10.
October 29th, 2023 at 7:24 PM ^
Because Bama this year is overrated due to their history
October 30th, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^
Louisville lost to Pitt - and I totally get why. Losing to Pitt a week after an emotional, program defining win against Notre Dame is the most college football thing there is. But nevertheless, they lost to Pitt. That's a BAD loss, and in my mind pretty much immediately removes them from the list of contenders unless there are no other 1 loss teams.
October 29th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^
Obviously there’s no comparison between the respective opponents, notwithstanding Duke’s blowout loss to Louisville this week. And I agree they have good WRs — Keon Coleman is maybe the best WR next to MHJ. We do have a pretty good secondary but I’m sure they’d get theirs. On the other hand, FSU’s OL is a liability and I think our DL would dominate it. Conversely, I think our OL, warts and all, would hold its own against FSU’s defensive front. More than anything, JJ’s poise, command of the offense, and arm talent really stood out to me as compared to Travis.
October 29th, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
I don't think FSU is a national title threat. FSU got in dogfights with very mediocre BC and Clemson teams and their defense is giving up close to 20 ppg. I'm just not seeing it. Given their remaining schedule I'd say they're likely to make the CFP, but I think they'd be the 4th best team of a theoretical UGA, Michigan, UW/OU playoff
October 29th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
FSU looks like the #1 team in the country in some quarters, then a middling ACC team in others. Given that inconsistency I would not be shocked if they beat, or lost to, pretty much anyone.
Washington is a less dysfunctional USC: great QB and skill guys, good playcalling, soft butter on defense. They are able to win or lose pretty much any week. (And given Pac 12 reffing, who really knows how the next close game will be decided.)
Kansas State has been the most complete team in the Big 12 the last few weeks. They go to Austin this week and could knock Texas out of the championship game. Crazy that Iowa St and Oklahoma St are also tied for 1st in that conference given the way both started. (ISU lost to a MAC team, OSU lost to a Sun Belt school by 26 points.)
October 29th, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
I’m sad there’s no signed contract extension for Harbaugh. Part of me wants to blame JUB for telling the whole world that there would be one which led to expediting this bullshit investigation and further pissing off harbaugh. He ain’t comin back after all this and it’s going to be bitter sweet watching the rest of the season knowing how most likely our demsie will happen sooner rather than later. And no I’m not overreacting. I love Michigan and Harbaugh and it sucks that we even have people inside Michigan that want to see Harbaugh fail ie fat Warde.
October 29th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Since you need to mention it, is Warde more evil because he is also fat? Asking on behalf of fat people.
October 29th, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
theyre eating all the food
October 29th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
And no I’m not overreacting.
Yes, you are.
October 29th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
JFC. You are convinced you are not overreacting? Yeah, the chances of him signing the contract is less now, but it is not as bad as it was months ago. Cheer up. We don't know how this is going to turn into. JUB is a good friend of the program. What he shared has nothing to do with this scandal.
October 29th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
Transitive property rules seem to work as expected with Indiana as a common opponent. OSU beat them by 20, PSU beat them by 9, OSU beat PSU by 8, right I. Line with a 12 pt difference, give or take a fg. I’ll let others make the comparison to UM’s score against Indiana and what that means for upcoming games. I will note, though, that UM’s beat down of the Hoosiers did NOT include starters playing at all in the 4th quarter.
If the ACC title game was played at Louisville, I’d take them to beat FSU. As it is, FSU could very well lose depending on which Louisville team makes the trip.
Washington seems to have peaked early and still have tough games ahead of them, including whoever they face in the title game.
Georgia looked the part of #1 defending champions yesterday, but Tennessee, ole miss, and even Georgia tech are going to test them. Alabama has LSU next, which could either be a track meet or show LSU’s offense to be a mirage. IDK.
I’ll bet on KStste and OkSt to win next week, effectively knocking the B12 out of the playoffs.
One last thought: I’d dearly love to see USC vs Iowa in a bowl game. I don’t think there’s any telling what the final score would be, let alone who would win. You’d almost have to bet on whoever has the better special teams units as making the difference in that game.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
Well if anything, in recent years, the transitive property has shown it’s that Harbaugh’s “complementary football” tends to underestimate UM given our propensity for slow, unflashy strangulation. The last two years we’ve held OSU in the ballpark of 15pts below their season average while scoring above ours.
October 29th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
Chomping the bit to see the boa constriction of OSU & PSU
October 29th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
"Tennessee, ole miss, and even Georgia tech are going to test them."
After watching GA dismantle Florida yesterday, I bet the Bulldogs smoke each one of their remaining regular season opponents.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
I think the laws of physics, nature and humanity forbid a USC v I-wa (No O) game. Its like combining matter and antimatter. You will have the first ever macroscopic example of Schroedinger’s Cat: the final score will simultaneously be 88-87 but also 0-0. And we will all sit around our TVs with eyes bleeding and blown out and jaws on the floor simultaneously going, “Huh, that was something.”
October 29th, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
Top two have separated, I think Oregon is probably the third best team, but Seattle's a hard place to win when Washington is good.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
There are a lot of people taking permanent dirt naps who have counted Nick Sabin out.
October 29th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
A bit more detail:
Four B1G West teams are tied for the Division lead - Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.
In the Big 12, there are five teams with one conference loss - Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Kansas State.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
And the hottest team in the West is… Northwestern.
October 29th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
"Anything" can happen on any given Saturday.
Georgia and Michigan look like 1A/B, to me-very fault free...no glaring holes-Georgia looked very good yesterday. I put FSU, Washington, OSU, Oregon, Alabama, Texas and Oklahoma in the next tier-very talented, dangerous rosters who can rise up and beat anyone else on any given day.
The B1G: PSU has the roster...but as long as Franklin is steering this ship they will continue to under-achieve. And frankly, OSU with McCord and petulant Ryan...and a defense who has not been punched in the mouth-I do not know who they really are.
I do not believe that "sign-gate" is too great of a burden for our mature and talented roster to bear-may be the opposite and keep them more keenly focused.
We shall see.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
I think Oregon and maybe Washington are a second tier, then the others. In a rematch, I think Oregon beats Washington, and neutral site they beat all the others, some soundly.
If the playoffs were today, I’d have those two, M and GA. Obviously a lot more games but FSU has to run the table as do either PSU or osu. I think the B12 is now out.
October 29th, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
Can we just pretend and say we won a game yesterday 41-6?
October 29th, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
After barely beating a bad Cal team, Lincoln Riley says this about his own players:
"I think there were a lot of players from the state of California that, in my opinion, should not be on the USC roster for one reason or another."
Even if his assessment is accurate, this is a really dumb thing to say in public—every team that also recruits California is going to use this against him.
I didn't know until this morning that NC St beat Clemson—any time that sanctimonious asshat Dabo loses is a good day for me.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
Stoops coattail rider is getting a lesson in adversity. Doesn’t look like he’s up to it. This is why I always dislike offensive gurus. They always seem hit slumps, slumps that solid defenses can protect you from. Harbaugh knows this, as he says, “wanna win on the road, pack your defense”.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
Another guy who thinks he hit a Triple.
October 29th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
Alex Grinch must have the blackmail to end all blackmail on Riley because Riley is going to submarine his tenure at USC because he won't get rid of Grinch and his vintage Big 12 defense. It's wild to just watch Lincoln act like nothings wrong
October 29th, 2023 at 11:13 AM ^
Narduzzi also criticized his Pitt players yesterday. Causing some locker room turmoil. Pitt has really fallen off in a big way this season.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
Up until the last couple of weeks, I thought that Narduzzi would be a logical candidate for Sparty for their next head coach, but I don't think that's going to happen now after Pitt has really shit the bed.
I have two other candidates that MSU could consider:
1. Missouri HC Eliah Drinkwitz—he's got the Tigers at 7-1. They've got some tough games coming up with GA, TN and FL, but if Mizzou is at least competitive, he might be attractive to MSU. The main problem I see is that he's got zero roots or experience in the BIG portion of the midwest.
2. Phil Parker, longtime Iowa DC. Yes, he's already 60, but he played football at MSU back in the '80s under Perles, was a grad assistant in EL in '87, and also coached under Saban at Toledo in 2000. Parker would be very familiar with coaching against other BIG teams, so there would be no learning curve there. The biggest risk is his age and his lack of HC experience. Whether he has any interest in being an HC I don't know, but if he wants to, he needs to act soon.
October 29th, 2023 at 4:43 PM ^
Lot's of people had Duke's Mike Elko's name in the hat for MSU as well, and they have lost 3 out of their last 4. Scoreless yesterday vs. Louisville.
I wonder if State had already started mid season back channel conversations with some of these coaching candidates whose teams have fallen apart after promising starts?
October 29th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^
Both Narduzzi's comments and Riley's make me appreciate Jim all the more. I can't remember him ever badmouthing a player or blaming them. He's so quick in those post-game interviews to get out of the way and have the interviewer talk to the player.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
Agree on Dabo. Clemson has ND this week and while I hate rooting for ND, a ND win would make Clemson 4-5.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
At this point, I really hope Michigan goes out there and just absolutely rips Purdue, Penn State, Maryland, and OSU to shreds. Total humiliating beatdowns, both physically and mentally.
No more letting up when it gets out of hand... to the point where teams can't just say "it was the weather" or "just a few bad plays" or "defeat with dignity." Fuck all that, time to just grind them to dust.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
Guarantee they will not be running in the second halfs with big leads against state and the nuts …. it will be an all out passing attack to ram it down their fucking throats and put up a TD every drive !!!
October 29th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
There is a chance that you are correct-somewhere around a 1% chance. It's more likely to be a 32 formation with Trente as one of the TEs and Orgi the QB.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
I like M's chances in the B1G. this team is more talented, and more mission-driven than any I remember seeing. If a steamroller and a flamethrower had sloppy drunk sex on a saturday night, this Michigan team is the lovechild. the current noise is only more fuel in the flamethrower's tank.
UGA looks good, but not as lethal as the last two seasons.
FSU looks like they're the best in the ACC this year, and I'd be shocked to see them lose a game at this point.
What I like about Washington is they've found a way to win even when they don't play well. Whether they can hold on to stay unbeaten remains to be seen, but it's gonna be a tough hill to climb for them.
If chalk holds in the B1G, SEC and ACC, I think a 1-loss PAC champ gets the 4th spot over a 1-loss B12 champ.
But i'm also not going to be shocked if Saban gets Bama to the SECCG and pulls a rabbit out of his hat to beat UGA.
A playoff field with Bama, M, FSU and the PAC champ (i'd bet Washington or Oregon) would be a lot of fun.
October 29th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
So, you think if Bama defeats GA in the SEC CCG that Georgia is left out of the CFP? I’m not disagreeing - but, the SEC love runs crazy deep. It will be interesting to see / follow.