CFP Updated Standings
Well with Minnesota moving in at #25 Brady can point to 4 losses to top 25 teams! #MoralVictories
I had all these predicted correct except Oregon over FSU - TCU at #4 passing Bama as TCU's win over KSU was better than Alabama's over LSU. Also lets committee not look so SEC centric. Then Bama can pass TCU next week with a win over Miss State. Question would be how far they'd drop one loss Miss State - behind TCU or no? I think not... if its a close loss.
Oregon as #2, nice - putting a 1 loss team over a 0 loss in seeding! Punish FSU for looking like slackers every week. Sends a good message. OU with a very convincing win at a quality Utah squad.
Baylor fans are going to be incensed that they beat TCU head to head but are behind them - but I think TCU has done more as well. Baylor's OOC is putrid. So far I like this committee.
- Miss State
- Oregon
- FSU
- TCU
- Bama
- ASU
- Baylor
- OSU
- Auburn
- Ole Miss
- UCLA
- MSU
- KSU
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Nebraska
- LSU
- Notre Dame
- Clemson
- Wisconsin
- Duke
- GA Tech
- Utah
- Texas A&M
- Minnesota
November 11th, 2014 at 7:46 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 11th, 2014 at 8:10 PM ^
Yes but TCU is out of quality wins left on their resume, and so is OSU other than the hope for a 1 loss Nebraska or 2 loss Wiscy in the Big 10 championship game. ASU v Oregon will be a play in game if both can continue to win, but either way the Pac 12 should get 1.
FSU has the potential for upset vs Miami or Florida, even Vegas has this week's game vs Miami as a near toss up. They have not been impressive for most of the year - with 1 loss I think they are out. Their squeaker win vs ND looks a lot worse after ASU smacked ND this week.
I do think Bama winning out and Miss State only losing to Bama opens the door for 2 SEC teams. We'll see. 1 loss Miss State (only loss to Bama and a few quality wins) would be up against 1 loss OSU or 1 loss TCU or 1 loss Baylor. I think they'd give that to Miss State.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:13 PM ^
Miss St.'s non conferencd schedule is an absolute joke and Baylor is paying for their non-conference schedule.
It would be an awful way to start of the playoff by giving a playoff spot to the team that didn't win its conference and played an awful non conference schedule. You would have 4 of the 5 conferences irate.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:43 PM ^
I agree Miss State OOC is horrid but the SEC West is the 1 division in football you can get away with it. If you beat some combination (5 out of 6) of Ole Miss, Bama, Auburn, A&M, LSU (yes I realize A&M is down) and Arkansas (again down but Arkansas would probably be competitive with Wisconsin or Nebraska) you dont really need a quality OOC. People will laugh about my comment about Arkansas but what Big 10 would play Miss State AND Alabama to a 1 possession game? I doubt any. Arkansas would be competing for a Big 10 championship in my estimation. And they are winless in conference.
November 12th, 2014 at 5:07 AM ^
They also crossed again Vandy and Kentucky, further weakening their schedule. And the SEC hype should have taken a hit when a clearly average at best A&M team beat Auburn.
November 12th, 2014 at 5:07 PM ^
The SEC West didn't lose an OOC game.
While the sample isn't huge, there isn't anything there to knock the conference that won 7 of the last 8 National Championships.
The B1G (Big Tehhhnn), on the other hand, posted losses in just about every significant OOC game (except for Indiana @Missouri, for Pete's sake.)
Significant OOC SEC West Games
SEC Team | OOC Opponent | Game Result | Opp Sagarin Rank | Site |
Auburn | Kansas St | W 20-14 | 13 | away |
LSU | Wiscy | W 28-14 | 15 | neutral |
Alabama | WVU | W 33-23 | 29 | neutral |
Ole Miss | Boise St | W 35-13 | 37 | neutral |
Zero losses in other OOC games.
Significant OOC SEC East Games
SEC Team | OOC Opponent | Game Result | Opp Sagarin Rank | Site |
Georgia | Clemson | W 45-21 | 23 | home |
S. Carolina | E. Carolina | W 33-23 | 56 | home |
Tennessee | Oklahoma | L 34-10 | 6 | away |
Vanderbilt | Temple | L 37-7 | 75 | home |
Missouri | Indiana | L 31-27 | 91 | home |
No other OOC losses
November 11th, 2014 at 8:14 PM ^
That point spread has a lot to do with Vegas trying to split the money evenly.
November 12th, 2014 at 12:57 AM ^
November 12th, 2014 at 5:08 AM ^
Yes that is exactly how Vegas works. The line is based in part how they expect the public to bet.
November 12th, 2014 at 7:10 AM ^
The casino is often times not looking for even betting, that's actually a myth. They usually set lines very slightly against the favorite because people tend to bet on the favorite even when they're less likely to cover. They'll take an even heavier position on some games depending on how the public is betting.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:48 PM ^
going to say/do if they make the playoff.
Beat them next year whoever takes over this team.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:49 PM ^
We've got three quality losses (of varied degree, of course) on this list, so we might make this yet, folks *obvious sarcasm*
SBNation's bowl projection currently has, as a result of these rankings, a TCU-Miss. St. Sugar Bowl and an Oregon-FSU Rose Bowl, Alabama in the Orange Bowl and Arizona State, Auburn, Ohio State, Baylor, Ole Miss and UCLA in various New Year's Day bowls now.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:50 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 11th, 2014 at 7:55 PM ^
is being punished for their shitty schedule. Conference-USA is a terrible conference and their non-conference schedule is a joke as well.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:57 PM ^
I'd have to see who Minnesota beat - quality wins matter. Who are Marshall's top 3 wins vs Minnesota's sort of thing. I think on another thread someone said Marshall's opponents winning percentage is in the low .400s. That said if Marshall goes undefeated they'd be in one of the 4 playoff committee bowls based on all the projections - Minnesota would not.
I think this is a moot point - the BIg 10 west is very back loaded...Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska have largely avoided each other. It would be like putting OSU MSU UM and PSU games all together in the last 3 weeks of the year (if UM and PSU were any good).
My gut tells me Wiscy beats Nebraska and wins the west. If Stave can be even mediocre they have the best defense in the west combined with the best running attack.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:31 PM ^
@ Michigan by 16
vs. Iowa by 37
vs. Northwestern by 7
With losses against TCU and a bad one @ Illinois.
Marshall's best there wins are:
vs. Middle Tennessee by 25
@ Akron by 31
vs. Ohio by 30
Probably a wash but there is almost no way Minnesota wins out. Marshall however is favored to win out.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 11th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^
TCU is in "win and in mode" or do they have to be impressive?
If Mississippi State beats Bama, Bama is most likely out. On the flip side, Miss. State could drop 2 themselves and fall out of it. I see ASU losing to either Arizona or Oregon, so they are out.
So, TCU and Baylor...Baylor still has Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and then Kansas State (on that last weekend, with a chance to impress pollsters), while TCU has Kansas, and interesting game at Texas on Thanksgiving night, and Iowa State.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:59 PM ^
I don't think TCU is win and in or have to win impressive. I think they're in as long as the disaster scenario doesn't play out, which is Alabama winning out and Mississippi State winning all but against Alabama. Then I think you get 2 SEC teams. If that's coupled with Oregon & ASU winning to the Pac-12 championship and FSU winning out, then they're out. Yes, I realize that this is unlikely.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:59 PM ^
I don't think TCU is win and in or have to win impressive. I think they're in as long as the disaster scenario doesn't play out, which is Alabama winning out and Mississippi State winning all but against Alabama. Then I think you get 2 SEC teams. If that's coupled with Oregon & ASU winning to the Pac-12 championship and FSU winning out, then they're out. Yes, I realize that this is unlikely.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:06 PM ^
TCU's main threat is Bama beating Miss State and Miss State winning out. Then it would be Miss State vs TCU for that last spot. TCU has no championship game to benefit from. TCU has no quality wins left to be had on their schedule.
OSU only has 1 quality win all year since the Big 10 is horrid, their OOC was horrid and they dont play Nebraska or Wisconsin in the regular season. So they can have AT MOST 2 (Nebraska or Wisconsin in the championship game) quality wins. TCU already has KSU, Oklahoma, West Virginia (West VA is not great but gave Bama a good game and it was a road victory in Morgantown) OSU's 3rd best win is going to be Maryland. Or Michigan. At home. And TCU's loss at last minute to Baylor is way better than OSU's albatross loss. So OSU is frozen out barring multiple major upsets.
TCU's other threat is Baylor - who has Kansas State to finish the year. It could be enough to leapfrog TCU as that would be a quality win. But then Baylor v Miss State (if they only have 1 loss) is the debate.
So for most controversy we want Bama to beat Miss State, and win out. We want Miss State to lose this week v Bama and then win out. We want Baylor to beat KSU. And have FSU lose. That will create a huge debate between TCU v Baylor v FSU v Miss State for spots in the playoffs ;) Only Bama and Oregon/ASU winner would be locked in, in this scenario.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^
Baylor is running out of opportunities. They play Okl St, Texas Tech and Kansas St all at home, but I think they can block out Ohio State.
It doesn't really matter, but I wouldn't have Texas A&M on the list, and I'd consider dropping Auburn more
November 12th, 2014 at 6:44 PM ^
And so, besides home vs away happenstance, they play the same league schedule plus their respective OOC schedules.
Yes, Baylor did beat TCU 61-58 at home, but it also lost @WVU 41-27 while TCU won @WVU 31-30. To those who say "It should be settled on the field," I ask, do the other Big 12 league games not matter? Thus I would make the Baylor head-to-head win the very last tie-breaker. (I'm still waiting for Dick Dastardly to give me the letter inviting me to be on the Playoff Committee.)
So let's look at the difference, their OOC schedules.
TCU Opponent | Sagarin Rank | Result | Baylor Opponent | Sagarin Rank | Result |
vs Minnesota | 43 | W 30-7 | vs Northwestern St | 136 | 70-6 |
vs Samford | 111 | W 48-14 | @Buffalo | 152 | W 63-21 |
SMU | 187 | W 56-0 | SMU | 187 | W 45-0 |
So, in my book, I put TCU in front of Baylor if they both win out because of their Minnesota win. But note that Minnesota finishes w/ OSU, @Nebraska, and @Wisconsin. If Minny wins just one of those, they show that they are to be taken seriously, and TCU's resume grades out better than Baylor's. If Minny loses out, then it gets a little murkier. Minny's best win would be Iowa 51-14, and the only reason Iowa is being discounted is because Minny beat them so badly. So I would still lean TCU. But it gets a lot closer then.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^
for TCU the rest of the way...don't like any of those other teams for sure
November 11th, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^
They are a fun team to watch and should be undefeated right now (Baylor scored 24 unanswered in the 4th quarter to win by a score). Miss. State is also a fun team to watch, but I'd rather not have an SEC team take the title again.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:58 PM ^
"Baylor's OOC is putrid"
And what is TCU's? Playing Minny is the difference between whether or not you get in?
November 11th, 2014 at 8:00 PM ^
They played them and smoked them. It should be noted/included in the discussion that Baylor and TCU are playing 9 conference games. So, Baylor played 3 non-top 5 conference teams. Lots of guys do that. TCU played only 2.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:07 PM ^
Well, Minny can prove they have a pulse in the next three weeks, but if they end up getting mauled as they probably will then I don't see how important it is that their body bag belongs to the Big Ten as opposed to some knock off conference.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:14 PM ^
As of *this week* TCU has a win over a top 25 team in their OOC (Minnesota baby!). And they have a win vs a Power 5 conference team with a winning %.
Baylor's non conf are all teams of the like of App State. That said a win by Baylor over KSU combined with their head to head win over TCU I believe would move them ahead of TCU in the last week of the year as long as they beat KSU by a similar margin to how TCU did this week.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:59 PM ^
Wisconsin lost to Northwestern.
I still can't believe that happened. But then again, BIG TEHN!
November 11th, 2014 at 8:17 PM ^
And Illinois beat Minnesota. Some of the strange results of the year for sure. But Wisconsin was playing a converted safety at QB for the first half of the year with Stave having the yips. Still a strange game - I'd have to look at the game summary to see what happened, maybe NW had some pick 6s or something.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:19 PM ^
The fact that Texas A&M, after almost losing to Louisiana Monroe and losing 59-0 to Bama, is ranked is a joke.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:24 PM ^
Not just 59-0. It was 49-0 at half, Bama called the dogs off.
November 11th, 2014 at 9:15 PM ^
but goodness SEC teams are like deadweighted to the top of the rankings. OSU lost to (at the time undefeated) VT and dropped from #6 to #21 IIRC. #3 Auburn loses to unranked, 6-3 TAMU and only drops to #9. Auburn could lose out and still end the season at #25 I think
November 11th, 2014 at 9:19 PM ^
"at the time undefeated" lmao it was week 2, at the time 50% of the NCAA was undefeated.
November 11th, 2014 at 10:03 PM ^
but VT was 2-0. TAMU was 6-3 coming off a complete destruction by Alabama and a near miss with ULM. Why did OSU drop 15 spots and Auburn 6? TAMU is bad this year and they've had to resort to a true freshman QB. Auburn should've taken a bigger hit
November 11th, 2014 at 10:23 PM ^
They didn't look like a team worthy of any ranking that night. Plus the whole conference got punked that day. There was no way they were going to drop just a few spots.
Auburn has played almost a full season and shown that their NC game appearance last year was no fluke. Plus other teams lost as well. You can't drop them below Sparty or other teams that haven't played as good of a schedule.
November 11th, 2014 at 9:58 PM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:23 PM ^
has to be pulling for certain things, with this being the first year of the playoff, right?
I mean, is it their worst nightmare for...
Mississippi State to lose to Bama and Ole Miss
Bama to in turn lose to Auburn
Georgia to win the SEC title game
TCU loses to Texas
Baylor to lose to K State
Arizona State to lose to Arizona then beat Oregon in the PAC title game
I know that is all unlikely, but it would be complete chaos come mid-December.
November 12th, 2014 at 12:14 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:32 PM ^
Crazy that Oregon leapfrogged FSU... didn't think they would have the guile to do that.
What happens if everyone in the SEC ends up with 2 losses or more? How ironic would it be if the SEC is left out after all the hyping of the SEC lol.
November 12th, 2014 at 6:56 PM ^
get in. (A two-loss GA would have wins against present #19 Clemson and #22 Georgia Tech in addition to an Auburn win this upcoming weekend and a win against the SEC West Champ should Mizzou lose @TXAM, @Tenn, or vs ARK.)
November 11th, 2014 at 8:36 PM ^
Love it. Not a ton of SEC teams, good balance and good mixture of all teams. Also, Minnesota and Utah are both teams we lost to that are turning out to be top tier teams.
November 12th, 2014 at 8:08 AM ^
Minnesota won't seem so "top tier" after they get destroyed by OSU, Wisconsin (on the road) and Nebraska (also on the road) in the next three weeks. Michigan is actually Minnesota's 2nd best win this season. Let that sink in for a moment...
November 11th, 2014 at 8:38 PM ^
By my eye, if Mississippi State loses to Alabama and then wins out, it deserves to go ahead of TCU, if you're ranking them by accomplishment. The bottom half of the schedule looks alike with only the Texas Tech pasting standing out. Even if you think the Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings love the SEC too much, I'd give Miss St the edge. Still, a lot of football to go.
F/+ | Mississippi State | F/+ | TCU | ||
1 | @ Alabama | 8 | @ Baylor | 58-61 | |
2 | @ Ole Miss | 11 | vs Oklahoma | 37-33 | |
5 | vs Auburn | 38-23 | 26 | vs Kansas State | 41-20 |
10 | @ LSU | 34-29 | 27 | @ West Virginia | 31-30 |
37 | vs Arkansas | 17-10 | 34 | vs Minnesota | 30-7 |
47 | vs Texas A&M | 48-31 | 53 | @ Texas | |
77 | @ Kentucky | 45-31 | 69 | vs Oklahoma State | 42-9 |
86 | vs UAB | 47-34 | 81 | vs Texas Tech | 82-27 |
96 | @ South Alabama | 35-3 | 83 | vs Iowa State | |
110 | vs Vanderbilt | 102 | @ Kansas | ||
118 | vs Southern Miss | 49-0 | 128 | @ SMU | 56-0 |
vs UT Martin | 45-16 | vs Samford | 48-14 |
November 11th, 2014 at 8:48 PM ^
Still have no idea how Bama is above ASU but at least they had the balls to move TCU up past them. Bama's and ASU's best wins are against overrated teams (LSU and ND) and losses against teams ranked next to each other (Ole Miss/UCLA). Bama's next best wins are WV and Texas A&M and ASU has Utah and then USC.
The bottom of the list is still showing SEC bias, even if it doesn't really mean anything. I mean how is Georgia still ranked 15 with 2 putrid losses and one semi-decent and it is some nerve to still rank Texas A&M, even with their win last week
November 11th, 2014 at 9:26 PM ^
Getting killed by UCLA is not good. 'Bama didn't get killed. But, otherwise, I kind of agree with you so far. But, at the end of the day,if Alabama wins out, they'll easily deserve to be in. They'll deserve to be in over ASU if they have the same record (1 or 2 losses).
F/+ | Alabama | F/+ | Arizona State | ||
2 | @ Ole Miss | 17-23 | 20 | vs UCLA | 27-62 |
5 | vs Auburn | 22 | vs Notre Dame | 55-31 | |
6 | vs Mississippi St | 24 | @ USC | 38-34 | |
10 | @ LSU | 20-13 OT | 30 | @ Arizona | |
27 | vs West Virginia* | 33-23 | 31 | vs Utah | 19-16 OT |
37 | @ Arkansas | 14-13 | 35 | vs Stanford | 26-10 |
38 | @ Tennessee | 34-20 | 61 | @ Washington | 24-10 |
41 | vs Florida | 42-21 | 73 | @ Oregon State | |
47 | vs Texas A&M | 59-0 | 74 | @ Colorado | 38-24 |
105 | vs Florida Atl | 41-0 | 76 | vs Washington St | |
118 | vs Southern Miss | 52-12 | 85 | @ New Mexico | 58-23 |
vs W Carolina | vs Weber State | 45-14 |
November 12th, 2014 at 7:08 PM ^
should they win out, which I think is their only path to the Playoff.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:59 PM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 9:14 PM ^
they will throttle Wisconsin or Nebraska and something fluky will happen, and next thing ya know, OSU sneaks in at #4
November 11th, 2014 at 11:27 PM ^
It happened in 2007, they got in because West Virginia lost to Pitt.
You have to root for Oregon, ASU, FSU, TCU and Miss State or Bama to win out.
Miss State could lose to Alabama or Ole Miss or SEC title game.
Oregon could lose to Oregon State or PAC 12 title game.
Alabama could lose to Miss State or Auburn or SEC title game.
TCU could lose @ Texas on Thanksgiving Day.
Arizona State could lose to Arizona or PAC 12 title game.
Baylor could lose to Kansas State.