CC: S/I Speculates on CCs Nationally - Says Past Relationship Means Mullen Low Probability for UF.

Submitted by alum96 on

Brian touched on this S/I story on the front page today but focused on the UM aspect of it.  Thought it was interesting from a Dan Mullen angle as well as I am not at all familiar with the politics at the University of Florida so there are some nuggets in this story for us yankees.

Long story short - the current AD was apparently there during the Urban Meyer era and advised Mullen against going to MSU (which could be understood).  They are not on great terms and to offer Mullen supposedly would be some form of implicit statement that the AD made a mistake in the past.  (Not going after Mullen to replace Urban?)  I don't know anything about Foley but it sounds like there is an ego involved.  Further Mullen was not popular in his time at UF and his 2 offensive coordinators left on not great terms.

S/I goes on to say Foley will make a run at Bob Stoops, which apparently he has in the past.  They don't think Stoops will leave Oklahoma (dont see any reason he would) but of course if that happened boy would that shake up the landscape.  There just has not been that sort of parallel move of 1 coach moving between 2 "bluebloods" (UF not a traditional bluebood but over past 25 years a powerhouse).  Hugh Freeze brought up but the talk of NCAA investigations cool that.

S/I then throws out Rich Rod of all people but says the personalities of Foley and RR don't mix.  Also states RR would need to upgrade his staff and they feel RR won't do that.  Which is pretty fascinating.

So that leaves things pretty open ended at UF as the "no brainer" candidate might not be as much. 

It would be considered a major surprise if Foley even calls Mullen. Foley advised Mullen against taking the Mississippi State job when he left Florida in December 2008 (considering the century of bad football in Starkville that probably wasn’t bad advice). The two don’t have a bad relationship, but its more neutral than chummy. Foley hiring Mullen would be an admission that he made a mistake in overlooking him last time. The Florida brass would also likely have to welcome back Mullen’s co-offensive coordinators, Billy Gonzales and John Hevesy, neither of whom exited Florida on the greatest terms (Gonzales bolted for LSU and Hevesy left with Mullen for Mississippi State. So did operations guru Jon Clark, who would surely come along). The feeling here is that if Mullen ends up getting hired, it happens because someone from the outside pressures Foley. So that means it’s unlikely.

Mullen wasn’t exactly beloved during his time at Florida, as fans called for his job and administrators were ambivalent. Foley isn’t itching for a tie to the Urban Meyer era, either. Some of this comes down to Foley’s ego and whether he can swallow his pride. The guess from almost every corner is that Mullen won’t get the job.

In the same piece they did mention Mullen and Michigan but offered that the stablity leadership and facilities are better in Starkville as we live in an increasingly flat world.  And the new SEC network is going to provide more bucks for those schools to spend on the arms race for coaches.

 


Not related - the SMU job also is interesting from the angle that some high profile coordinators look to be front runners - namely Chad Morris of Clemson, Josh Heupel of Oklahoma, and Herman of OSU.  Tulsa also should open up and those same guys are candidates for that job.  These are the prototypical jobs for unproven coordinators to go to for 3-4 years before launching to a Big 5 - Todd Graham and Kevin Sumlin both turbocharged their HC careers in that conference.

Last Kansas may also be going after an OSU coach - in this case Ed Warriner who apparently was the top assistant with Mangino back in the day.

So Urbz could be losing 2 major guys from his staff.

Don

October 23rd, 2014 at 7:13 AM ^

that any coach at a "downclass" school would turn down Michigan are like elderly old-money people who in their youth were in the power structure and just assumed they'd always be considered the natural leaders that everybody else would automatically defer to. They live in large, rambling old mansions that are starting to show the wear and tear due to a falloff in maintenance and lack of upgrades born of close-minded arrogance and exhaustion of the bloodlines. They still go to their country-club in their chauffeur-driven old Cadillacs and sneer at the rude upstarts they see all around them, but in reality the world has passed them by.

michgoblue

October 23rd, 2014 at 7:26 AM ^

People said for over a decade that the world had passed ND by. Since Kelly's arrival, they seem to be doing just fine. People said for a decade that the football world had passed Alabama by. They hired saban and they seem to be keeping up with the joneses (without all of the uniformzz and while running what many would call a Manball offense).



I know that Hoke is not as loved as he was in 2011, but he got it right when he said "this is Michigan fergodsake."



The point is that great traditional programs are capable of being down for an extended period and coming out of it once they have the right leadership. By contrast, a flash in the pan program like a Boise, Utah, Etc may be the flavor of a season or even a decade, but that almost always fades.



So, yeah, using your analogy, our old rambling mansion may be showing some cracks and wear, but it has a great foundation, a huge plot of land and has some great amenities. With the right owner to do some renovation work, it could be the nicest house in the neighborhood.

Blue in Yarmouth

October 23rd, 2014 at 7:45 AM ^

who ever said that the football world passed either ND or Ala. by other than their rival fan bases? Even during their down years they almost always started the season in the top 25 simply because they were who they were. Every year pundits claimed this would be the year they'd right the ship. It was only rivals who thought they were down for good. 

I agree with Don on this 100%

Heteroskedastic

October 23rd, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^

It was not only their rivals who thought they were down.  ESPN was rife with commentators lamenting that due to academics and the South Bend nightlife and weather problems, Notre Dame would never be a football powerhouse again.  When Willingham was fired,under the byline "Fall from Grace", ESPN commented "On any number of levels, the fact that Willingham is not returning illustrates how Notre Dame is not Notre Dame anymore." 

Alabama is an even better example.  Before Saban was hired, Alabama went through 4 coaches in 6 years.  After getting burned by outsiders (Franchione and Mike Price), they hired Mike Shula, with no coaching experience, because he was a "Bama Man".  When Shula was fired, ESPN said "The Alabama name doesn't carry the weight it once did."  "Teenagers cannot remember when Alabama ruled the SEC."  We made fun of them then, but there is a reason that Alabama fans welcomed Saban on the flightline.  They thought he was the only one who could return Alabama to its former prestige (and he may have been).  As sad as it sounds, if Harbaugh (Jim or John) were to be hired, we would likely do the same thing and Ohio State would be the ones to call us pathetic.

sLideshowBob

October 23rd, 2014 at 10:45 AM ^

Alabama was ranked 25 in 2001 and not again until 2008 when they were 24th in the AP preseason polls. Notre Dame has a pretty big gap in the aughts as well.  see below:

AP Preseason Poll

Year Alabama Michigan Notre Dame
1989 16 1 2
1990 12 6 2
1991 22 2 6
1992 9 6 3
1993 2 3 7
1994 12 5 2
1995 10 14 9
1996 15 14 6
1997 15 14 11
1998   5 22
1999 40 8 18
2000 3 6  
2001 25 12 18
2002   12  
2003   4 20
2004   8  
2005   4  
2006   14 2
2007   5  
2008 24    
2009 5   23
2010 1    
2011 2   16
2012 2 8  
2013 1 17 14
2014 2   17

 

sammylittle

October 23rd, 2014 at 9:15 AM ^

Mullen will be a difficult pull. He has an excellent relationship with the athletic department. After a couple of winning seasons, Mullen asked for $110 million to build a new football building, practice field, and to expand the stadium. He got it. He is due a significant raise and will get that as well. He makes about $2.7 million. A million dollar raise would put his salary in the top ten. The resources are here to do that.

late night BTB

October 23rd, 2014 at 9:58 AM ^

this is insightful.  These facts, along with the fact that he's got a top 5 ranked program in the toughest division in the toughest conference in CFB, that he built from nothing, has me convinced that he'll stay.  Or at least not come to Michigan.

If he keeps up a semblance of what he's doing now, he'll have a statue/building after a decade or two.

sammylittle

October 23rd, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^

It is not easy having to play Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, A&M, and Arkansas in division every year. A bigger school would give him a better chance of success year in and year out. The fans in Starkville will accept an average of 8 wins per year (that translates into 4-4 in the conference most years). He would have higher expectations at UM.

One advantage he has in staying is recruiting. Neighboring Louisiana is much like Ohio (a state that produces much D-1 football talent and has only 1 in-state power 5 school. Mississippi State has done well dipping into Louisiana's talent pool. Mississippi is also home to the largest and best group of Juco schools. Bo Wallace, Ole Miss's QB, went to EMCC about 40 miles from Starkville. Both Mississippi schools get plenty of Juco transfers.

Wolverine 73

October 23rd, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^

And I don't sell the relationship angle short.  But the chances of keeping MSU on top in the SEC over the long haul seem to be much weaker than getting Michigan to the top and staying there in the Big Ten East.  When all is said and done, Michigan is still far and away the better brand, and selling that brand against our competition has to be easier than selling the MSU brand against Alabama, LSU, etc.  I get that times change, and maybe 18 year olds don't know much about (NCAA football) history, but if we can start playing sound football again, Michigan should be easy to sell to recruits.  We just have to get beyond the 7 years of bad coaching hell (with one exception) we are going through.

Brodie

October 23rd, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^

Here is my only question on Mullen: He is a young man. He is looking at 20 years or more in his coaching career. Is he happy knowing that he's settled for Starkville, that at any point the bottom could fall out as the Floridas, Tennessees, Arkansas' and even Texas' and Miamis revert to their mean success levels and he'll have lost his shot at a bigger stage?

Say what you want about the leveling of the playing field or the decline of the Big 10. Michigan is the biggest stage, the one where 15 million people will watch you on TV and 115,000 will watch you in the stands, where newspapers from the across the country will report on you. Michigan is invulerable to the kind of recruiting collapse MsSU is. Michigan is a guarantee that the money will be there to make the next round of facility upgrades. Michigan is the best chance he will ever have to stand toe to toe with his mentor and slap him each November.

Mississippi State, on the other hand, could well be Kansas or West Virginia. Never forget what Don Nehlen, a man who played for multiple national titles at WVU, told Rich Rodriguez... "the head coach at West Virginia walks on water in West Virginia, the head coach at Michigan walks on water period"

Marley Nowell

October 23rd, 2014 at 2:02 AM ^

Only way I see Mullen coming here is making him a Top 5 highest paid coach and allocate the funds to give his assistants significant raises as well.  Hoke at #7 is not far off the Top 5 so its doable but Mullen will have more challenges in recuriting academic qualifiers here so we'll see if he thinks its worth the extra $$$$.

Blue in Yarmouth

October 23rd, 2014 at 7:50 AM ^

but from everything I have read and heard on this blog UM basically uses the NCAA clearing house as their standard for accetance into the university. There are only a very small minority who have higher standards than that, Stanford being one of them. From everything I have read the criterea for acepting athletes at UM is the same as 90 % of the other schools which is get through the NCAA clearing house. In other words, he won't have a harder time here. 

To your other point, there is no reason UM can't make the next HC the highest paid in the country. If they try and the top coaches still don't want to come here than we're really in for a long haul.

Mr Miggle

October 23rd, 2014 at 9:25 AM ^

Admissions has rejected a number of players who were fully qualified by NCAA standards. They don't often make it all the way to LOI day before that happens like it did with Adrian Witty. Sometimes late in the recruiting process UM has to drop someone they thought would get in like Anthony Standifer. Admissions was unhappy when RR brought in too many players close to NCAA's minimum standards.

There are always some recruits who are uncertain about meeting the NCAA standards. Part of the reason you see some big classes, (Miss St is currently at 30), is that they're padded with kids unlikely to be eligible. Michigan does not accept those players. If they did, Burbridge would probably be here now.

Let's not forget JuCos and transfers. It's very difficult to get them into Michigan. It's routine most places.

 

 

 

Ty Butterfield

October 23rd, 2014 at 2:21 AM ^

I am not sure why everyone thinks Mullen will leave Miss State and go somewhere else? He has spent time building up that program and I am sure Miss State will find the money to pay him if he wants a raise. I fear no good coach will want to come here and deal with this tire fire.

ghost

October 23rd, 2014 at 5:38 AM ^

How many times have we seen a school have one or two great years and fall back to the pack?  Two recent examples are WF and BC.  In the SEC Missouri seems to be slipping back without Franklin.

UCLA looked great the last couple of years and many predicted they would become a PAC12 power.  Well that hasn't happened.

Gucci Mane

October 23rd, 2014 at 2:21 AM ^

There's a lot of great coaches out there, we need to get just one. We can't fail. (Assuming hoke doesn't have a miracle turnaround)

MayOhioEatTurds

October 23rd, 2014 at 3:03 AM ^

Sadly, I'm not even sure I want a "miracle turnaround" for Hoke at this point.  Not because I don't like Hoke; I think he's probably a wonderful person.

But after four years, I no longer believe Hoke can get it done--over the long haul--in Ann Arbor.  The regression in Michigan football, year over year, has been hard to watch. 

I don't want to watch it anymore. 

mGrowOld

October 23rd, 2014 at 5:58 AM ^

Thank you SI. I've been saying exactly that about the Mullen - Florida rift (one of my employees is an ex-player for the Gators) and nobody believed me.

I'm calling my shot-if Hoke is let go Mullen is our next coach.

Leonhall

October 23rd, 2014 at 6:55 AM ^

With Dave Brandon as our AD, we will not get any good coach from a power 5 conference IMO. The leadership here is bad and after seeing what's gone down with Hoke and RR, no top tier coach without a prior connection to UM is probably taking the chance, big money or not.



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GoBlueInNYC

October 23rd, 2014 at 7:16 AM ^

What about the Hoke era would discourage another coach from coming to UM? If anything, Hoke has gotten way more leeway than coaches would get else where. Hoke is highly paid, is given the funds to pay top dollar for assistants, has clearly demonstrated that UM is a place you can recruit really well at, and is really only on the hot seat after 4 years and sitting below .500.

Now the RichRod era...that's a whole other matter.

aiglick

October 23rd, 2014 at 9:06 AM ^

After the Morris concussion issue Brandon clearly publicly threw his HC under the bus. Our AD sits in coordinator meetings without the HC. You can say all you want but once an HC has a contract here I'd say the AD can have more power unless the HC would resign which would nullify any buyout he were owed.

An employee has a lot of power while negotiating for a new job. Once you get to said job unless you are somebody the employer really wants to keep then again I would say the employer has the power. In this instance I'd say the HC-AD relationship mirrors other employee-employer partnerships.

Hoek

October 23rd, 2014 at 7:18 AM ^

I wish people would shut up about the false rumor, with Brandon as AD we will not get a good coach. I mean how do you know? No really tell me, is it because you heard that on mgoblog? Do you know Brandon personally? The man might be making a hire to save his job, I bet if he throws enough money at a good coach, they will come.

BiSB

October 23rd, 2014 at 7:41 AM ^

Multiple people, all of whom know people who know people, have said so. Brian, John U. Bacon, several national figures, and others have all opined on the subject, and the conclusion is pretty unanimous. And it meshes with, like, logic: no one with multiple high-level options is going to choose the lame duck AD who sits in on film sessions.

LSAClassOf2000

October 23rd, 2014 at 6:55 AM ^

Here's a Florida writer who is also a little hesitant to jump on the Mullen bandwagon - LINK

Basically, this guy talks about Mullen's less-than-great record against ranked teams as well as other teams in the SEC West (the normal obstacles, of you will) before this year as the primary reason to perhaps go a different route. That being said, he fronts Mullen as well as Gary Patterson as "safe" choices for Florida with Rich Rodriguez being his more bold selection. 

alum96

October 23rd, 2014 at 7:23 AM ^

This was my concern as well when I wrote a diary up on him a few weeks back; up to that point MSU had beaten what looks to be a flawed LSU team.  That most likely was his best win (at that point) in 6 years... followed by the A&M win; also a team we now see as highly flawed courtesy of Alabama.  The Auburn win was very good however.  Deathly curious how the game vs Bama plays out now.

It's really difficult to figure Mullen out.  For 5 years, he beat baby seals and the bottom of the SEC, and lost to the upper third teams.  Until this year the Michigan team he faced was probably his 4th best win, and that team was a train wreck by that point.  Is he riding Prescott to a "year for the ages" or has he built something sustainable?  I have no idea nor does anyone else. 

All the normal caveats apply for the division and it being MIss State but it did take 6 years to reach this point in a football world that is increasingly flat allowing elite coaches to do very good things quickly (See 1-11 Stanford)  and certain fan bases clamoring for him would not have that sort of patience for a turnaround. 

Again, it is amazing how perception can change in a year, about 11.5 months ago Mullen was 4-6 , 10 games into his 5th year at Miss State.   Those wins beaing Alcorn State, Troy, Bowling Green, and Kentucky.

Here is the data on major wins and losses coming into the year; 2011-2012 he did beat a single reputable team (that is year 3 and 4 of his era)

List of wins year by year

  • 2009:  Jackson State, (2-10) Vanderbilt, Middle Tenn State, (7-6) Kentucky, (9-4) #20 Ole Miss.  
  • 2010:  Memphis, (6-7) Georgia, Alcorn State, Houston, (8-5) Florida, UAB, Kentucky, (4-8) Ole Miss, Michigan
  • 2011:   Memphis, LA Tech, UAB, Kentucky, Tennessee-Martin, (2-10) Ole Miss
  • 2012:  Jackson State (3-9) Auburn, Troy, South Alabama, Kentucky, (5-7) Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, (4-8) Arkansas
  • 2013:  Alcorn State, Troy, Bowling Green, Kentucky, (3-9) Arkansas, (8-5) Ole Miss, (10-4) Rice

List of losses year by year

  • 2009:  Auburn, LSU, Georgia Tech, Houston, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas
  • 2010:  Auburn, LSU, Alabama, Arkansas
  • 2011:   Auburn, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas
  • 2012:  Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Northwestern
  • 2013:  Oklahoma State, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama