Bubble/Bracket Update from Lunardi over at ESPN

Exceptional

Only silver lining for Michigan in the First Four is that the venue is right up the road for me, in Dayton. I'd most certainly go. That said, I'd rather NOT see us there, if at all possible! 

If Lunardi was a Michigan weatherman in the winter

14 day forecast - 50% chance of snow, highs in the low 20's to high 30's

7 day forecast - 60% chance of snow, highs in the upper 20's to low 30's

3 day forecast - 70% chance of snow, high's in the upper 20's

Next day forecast - 90% chance of snow, high of 28

Same day forecast - It's snowing and it's cold.

Anyone that still has Rutgers ahead of Michigan is...probably wrong.

It's hilarious that they get a Q2 win for beating us at home and we only get a Q3 win for beating them at home because they are 50 spots behind us in NET.  It's like, look at our great Q1+Q2 record compared to yours but nevermind the difference in those records is because we're saying you're a good team and we're not...hmmmmm

Memphis in the first four out makes me gleeful too...

I still cannot figure out how he has North Carolina in.  They got blown out at Pitt last week and only have 1 Quad one win.  

For some reason I read this as Buckle Up, and got excited.

I forgot how exhausting the bubble is. 

I'd like to be selfish and hope for a "First Four" game. The base here usually gets boatloads of tix for free and I'd be more than happy to support.

I feel sorry for whoever draws a first four matchup against Dayton .... in Dayton

first four in still counts as making the tunamelt field even if you're not one of the 64 teams, ask Staee 

If Michigan makes it in to the First 4 and loses after making fun of MSU last year for not making the "true tournament", and MSU keeps sliding and drops to the NIT after their chants against Michigan, it'd be the ultimate sports karma. 

Assuming Michigan finishes well and makes the tournament, is it crazy to want an 11 seed as opposed to an 8/9/10 seed?  It feels like this year, there's a pretty big gap between 1 and 2 seeds v. 3 seeds.  An 11 seed may give us a better chance to make the second weekend.  

Current 1 and 2 seeds: Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Auburn, UK, Purdue, Baylor, Duke.

Current 6 seeds: Arkansas, LSU, MSU, USC

Current 3 seeds: Texas Tech, Nova, Illinois, Tennessee

Isn't the general rule of thumb that "the bubble gets softer the closer we get to Selection Day?"

I'm not sure that Michigan necessarily deserves a tourney bid - that solely based on my personal POV that the tourney size is inflated as is - but 17 wins seems like it will be good enough given it is a 68-team field.

The B10 bubble is a daily roller coaster and there are a ton of teams competing for the same spots - Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, Rutgers, and maybe even MSU (though they have more margin for error).  Anyone who goes 11-9 is going to get in....probably even Rutgers.  

That being said, I think Lunardi has been one of the most behind-the-times guy so far until this latest release.  I know you can only update so much and this is extremely dynamic, but he's overdue for putting us in the field - which should have happened after the Purdue win or at least the Iowa win.

Wasn't UCLA in the first four with MSU? I think we keep rooting for the team, sending positive vibes and care less about how we get in. Just need to keep seeing improvements by the Freshman & steady play by Eli/DJ/Big Dickinson and go 2-2 to finish the season, win 1 game in the BTT.

AJH working with the Running Backs.

A BM sighting, hope I'm wrong but looks like he's running with the 3's.

TJG in the 2 deep

Cheers

Since I can’t reply, I’ll try to quote:

AJH working with the Running Backs.

A BM sighting, hope I'm wrong but looks like he's running with the 3's.

TJG in the 2 deep

Cheer

AJH = Henning

BM  = Braiden McGregor

TJG = TJ Guy

Good post. Thanks

Really hard to see "BM" and not think shouldn't BM be running with the #2's...

@NittanyFan yes, I think that's probably the case because everyone thinks they need to do more and then suddenly it's like oh wait, that's already enough?  Depends on bid stealing too though.  Sometimes there are several and the bubble unexpectedly shinks.

@Kevin14 you always want to avoid the 8/9 line because the 1 seeds are typically at the far end of the distribution such that the gap between 1s and 2s is a lot wider than 2s and 3s.

That's really only the case this year with Gonzaga and I'm always a bit skeptical of their advanced stats, but at least according to kenpom, there isn't a big gap between his 5-8 and his 9-12 teams.  And the committee had two teams that are weakish in the predictive metrics - Duke and Purdue - on their 2 seed line.  I wouldn't mind getting either of those teams compared to Texas Tech or Villanova who were on the 3 line.

So I think getting a marginally easier 10/7 game is preferable to 11/6 but it's splitting hairs either way.

UCLA did make the final four as an 11 seed last year (starting from the first four!) so just win the games!

Is it almost better to hope for a First Four matchup as opposed to getting a “bye,” but being thrown into the 8/9/10 seed line and being matched up with a 1-2 seed on Day 2? 

8-9 seed is probably the worst place you can be. 

Add some fiber to your diet. That will take care of the running BM.

Drats, Oregon won.

Nice work True Blue 9.  Love the format, easy to get the full picture once you read the legends.

how is this possible? Memphis is the best team in the country. They have Money, Penny, Duren, Emoni (had??) all the ingredients to make a winning pie. Everyone in America is stunned and confused

Interesting that CBS' Palm has Rutgers, Indiana, Oregon, UNC as the last 4 out and UM, Memphis, Fla, Wake Forest as the last four in, so pretty much that would be the bubble right now.  Lunardi now has UM as a 10 seed which is not technically on the bubble.

Assuming Michigan finishes well and makes the tournament, is it crazy to want an 11 seed as opposed to an 8/9/10 seed? It feels like this year, there's a pretty big gap between 1 and 2 seeds v. 3 seeds. An 11 seed may give us a better chance to make the second weekend. Current 1 and 2 seeds: Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Auburn, UK, Purdue, Baylor, Duke. Current 6 seeds: Arkansas, LSU, MSU, USC Current 3 seeds: Texas Tech, Nova, Illinois, Tennessee

I feel like this is true most years. Nobody ever wants that 8/9 line with a 1 seed lurking. As an 11-seed, you're playing a 6-seed which is usually a pretty even matchup, and if you win a first-round game as an 11 seed, you have a reasonable round-of-32 matchup and then you still avoid the 1-line until elite eight

This needs to be a daily posting. 

Win the next three at home and at least one B1G tourney game and we are in.