Brief reflection on the new landscape of college athletics

Submitted by themostbrian on January 23rd, 2024 at 11:37 AM

(caveat that the new system is still very much experiencing its birth pangs and will almost certainly look and feel very different 5, 10, 20 years from today)

One of the vagaries of human psychology is a strong bias in favor of the status quo.

The status quo of college football pre-NIL and pre-immediate eligibility post-transfer created a LOT of damage for college athletes - but that damage was accepted as the cost of doing business and barely even discussed in major public sources.

The damage included: not being compensated fairly (or at all) despite being massive generators of revenue for their universities, not being able to freely transfer and be immediately eligible when blocked from playing time or when the coach moves on, being forced to sit out for a year when transferring.

This damage was barely recognized by most fans - but it was real and lasted for DECADES. Think of all the players from the 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s, and 10s who could've been set up financially when leaving college (whether they made it to the NFL or not) and who could've found a new, lucrative opportunity by a free transfer with immediate eligibility. Instead, wildly popular college athletes who never made it in a big way professionally - like an Aaron Craft at Ohio State or a Denard Robinson at Michigan or a Tommie Frazier at Nebraska - were not able to benefit financially at ALL despite bringing in millions and millions to their respective academic institutions.

The new system creates a different kind of damage - but in my opinion it is a preferable and less harmful kind of damage. It's the damage of fans feeling like they are just rooting for laundry because players are all free agents moving around. In my opinion, this new landscape creates a morally and ethically preferable damage to the type of damage we accepted as normal and natural for so many decades.

rice4114

January 23rd, 2024 at 11:45 AM ^

Until there is real NIL payments from where it matters (tv revenue) this is all a farce. Michigan should challenge the status quo and pay the players a tv % reward at seasons end. If the NCAA tried to block actual NIL payments to players the lawyers would destroy them in court. Until then we will have a "one more year" pay to play fund? What a crazy time in college football where everything is ass backwards. 

The Mad Hatter

January 23rd, 2024 at 11:49 AM ^

Given the cost of tickets, and the massive amount of TV and other revenue received by the schools, it's fucking crazy that fans are asked to "donate" to a fund for the players.  Fuck that.  We pay enough already.  Pay them yourselves.

I think the NCAA will eventually be smashed to pieces by the courts.  It's just a matter of time and will.

St Joe Blues

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:47 PM ^

From what I saw on X last night, OSU is putting a lot of pressure on NFL alums of their program to donate to a Play it Forward campaign, or something like that. They were trumpeting how Stroud was the first with a $100,000 donation or something like that. So they're going after the guys who played pre-NIL money, at least the big payouts, so they can start buying players.

Amazinblu

January 23rd, 2024 at 1:00 PM ^

If Stroud picked up a new set of wheels after being drafted - perhaps he can "donate" the Mercedes AMG G63 that he received in an NIL deal - and it can just be the car for Sayin, Howard, or Nolan - you know - "THAT's the Buckeye QB car..."

Of course - Lamborghini won't like that arrangement.

The best team money can buy?    We'll know this season...

Blau

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:47 PM ^

Preach!

I made a similar, albeit less pointed, comment last week when folks were soliciting for the public-based Champions Circle NIL fund. If that’s your bag of cash, you spend it however you want. You do you, as they say.

But this is where I draw a line in the sand. It would be one thing if players were receiving a flat rate stipend or universal sum of $$ that honors their desire to play and get their degree. I can be convinced that is limiting in scope and players deserve to be paid. Simple enough.

What you can’t do is convince me that I should add to funds out of my own pocket to pay players that probably make more than I do like it’s a charitable cause. I’m sorry but once you make 80-100k+ as an individual, you can figure out if Michigan is right for you because if you can’t, you can afford to hire someone who can help with your career decisions. So cue the “WITHOUT YOUR MONEY, WE WONT WIN UNLESS WE HAVE THE BEST PLAYERS AND THE BEST PLAYERS COST MONEY” crowd. 

I’m ready to start labeling players as employees whenever you guys are. Last time I checked publicly-funded organizations, charities or non-profits are ingrained in providing programs and services for the good of a community with a clear economic need and this is pretty fucking far from that.

But yeah, thanks for the decal…

bluebyyou

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:58 PM ^

I fully agree that the money should be coming out of the coffers of the school's revenue and not the pockets of the fans.

To that end, the need to revenue share as a percentage of viewership would be the first thing I would attempt to change, either through the (gag) B1G or by forming a superleague of the best revenue earners out there. 

The NCAA was already smashed to pieces by the SC.  When a school like Michigan fails to use its economic muscle to fight the NCAA at every given opportunity, it gives life to an organization which should have been abandoned and buried years ago.

The powers that be at Michigan are living in a different time.  What happened over the last three seasons was a perfect storm that started before NIL and will likely not be repeated.  Memories of empty seats at Michigan Stadium during Hoke's last year should be up front and center when viewing how to deal with NIL and what happens when a program is not at the top of its game.

Mike Jones

January 23rd, 2024 at 4:14 PM ^

Hey, what's wrong with getting fans to donate $ so schools, coaches, TV networks and the NCAA don't have to give up any of THEIR revenue?

NIL is a band aid.  The idea that players would choose it over being, you know, actual employees with benefits (like the NFL) seems shortsighted.  

FauxMo

January 23rd, 2024 at 11:49 AM ^

If several thousand years of recorded history has taught us anything, it's that ANY system of government (or regulatory regime, or system of justice, etc.) will create real or perceived harm to some group. From a utilitarian perspective, the goal is to limit the total harm caused by said system. Does NIL do that? We have no idea, yet. Ask again in 10 years... 

RockinLoud

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:00 PM ^

If several thousand years of recorded history has taught us anything, it's that ANY system of government (or regulatory regime, or system of justice, etc.) will create real or perceived harm to some group.

But I was told by many people on Facebook, Reddit, X, and various other platforms that if only I followed their system the world would be a perfect utopia! You're telling me that's not true? Man, what are you gonna tell me next? That the holes in the car the shady salesman sold me that look suspiciously like bullet holes are not actually speed holes like he told me?

4th phase

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:47 PM ^

I guess there could be unintended consequences that would be disastrous that no one has foreseen. But the "harm" to anti-NIL people seems to just be: fans don't like change. The harm under the old system was very material to the players financial situation. Given the number of athletes is orders of magnitude more than the numbers of highly paid suits in the AD, I'm not sure how it isn't already very obvious that NIL creates less harm than restricting someone's earning potential.

Amazinblu

January 23rd, 2024 at 1:04 PM ^

I'm not "anti-NIL" - at least how NIL was originally defined - "Name, Image, and Likeness".   

So, if Nike was using the Fab Five to promote their brand or products - some compensation would be fair.   It's no different than a QB being a spokesman / appearing in a commercial for Dr. Pepper.

Where I believe it's gotten out of control is - Pay for Play, Inducements, Tampering, and seeing - "what kind of a team money can buy".   

4th phase

January 23rd, 2024 at 1:21 PM ^

I think that is mostly because of the way it is being half assed. If you have an players union and contracts then tampering goes away. A player's union would also allow for a fair salary cap to avoid that. Although I would point out that for the last idk maybe 20 years, the sport has been mostly about "what kind of team money can buy." New Mexico St never has and never will make any type of playoff / NY6 bowl game, etc.

FauxMo

January 23rd, 2024 at 1:05 PM ^

I very much agree with this. Between "I didn't make it to the pros and now I am poor" vs. "my fandom is less intense because these players feel like hired guns," I would take the latter as the lesser harm any day. But, I guarantee that there are others who think the declining intensity of their fandom is the greater harm. Guarantee it... ;-) 

TomJ

January 23rd, 2024 at 2:26 PM ^

And why not? If the fans lose interest, the money cannon stops. Sometimes what's best for the players (unlimited free agency) is not best for the fans (and vice versa!). Would my love for football remain if every team's roster changes every year? Probably not. Which means I'll watch less TV, buy less merch, spend less time at the bar watching my team play . . . and all those things translate to less revenue for the sport.

bluebyyou

January 23rd, 2024 at 3:58 PM ^

NIL causes inequality.  Some institutions have lots of money and some don't, That isn't going to change.

Michigan has lots of money available if it were to choose to spend large sums, but chooses to walk a different path.

From a legal standpoint, I see no easy way of avoiding antitrust issues short of setting up a union like the NFLPA. That would present its own set of problems, particularly when conferences share revenue equally - a horrible mistake if you are Michigan or OSU.

The biggest problem Michigan faces is its inability to separate the academic side of the institution from the athletic side.

mGo Go Gadget Play

January 23rd, 2024 at 11:50 AM ^

The money really has only gotten crazy in the last 30 years, when all games started to be televised and monetized. I found a 1995 article which said that Gary Moeller's salary the year he was fired was $130,000. I don't see how splitting up a pie that size or smaller really helps set up athletes from the 70s and 80s. 

Amazinblu

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:29 PM ^

Regarding the offer from A&M to Bo, IIRC - the offer was - $2M for ten years - $200K / year.

And, again - IIRC - a remark when Bo discussed his turning down the offer was - "Some things are more important than money."

As a point of reference - that salary - $200K / year - was probably about 8 times the salary (at that time) of a Michigan STEM graduate - either LSA Computer Science or Engineer.   Needless to say - current college coach salaries do seem to be a greater multiple than eight (8).

JBLPSYCHED

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:59 PM ^

Devil's advocate response: Athletes (at least in revenue sports) provide an entertainment and marketing service for the University while they compete. This makes them special, i.e. unique compared to the general student population. And while I'm certainly sympathetic to students who graduate with significant debt, at this point it's a choice that they made.

Unlike for profit colleges which have uneven reputations for delivering quality education, most colleges and universities offer a quality product which can be purchased for a reasonable sum (~$25K/year for in-state tuition). If that's too much for someone to afford then community colleges are a much cheaper option. We can argue about the value of the degrees that they offer but overall they serve an important function.

themostbrian

January 23rd, 2024 at 3:11 PM ^

I mean, if you believe in the project of capitalism (which I do not, to be clear) then the money goes to those who have "earned" it through creating a consumable product. Athletes are contributing to the creation of a consumable product and should therefore be compensated in a manner proportional to their contribution. Your average college student is not contributing anything to the creation of a consumable product.

Matte Kudasai

January 23rd, 2024 at 11:52 AM ^

Respectfully disagree on all counts.

The old system worked wonderfully.

Kids got a free education and they got a chance to showcase their skills for the NFL.

In fact, it's STILL the best system.  Old system plus LEGIT NIL is just fine.

Instead, we're dealing with Enticements, Pay to play, bastardized NIL deals and portal poaching.

That's real Damage and it's destroying the game.

 

 

mGrowOld

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:27 PM ^

Shockingly I agree with this take which is why an alternative title to this thread could be:

"Brief reflection on the new landscape of minor league football"

BTW the pre-BCS, pre NCG final four and soon to be 12 bowl line up with fixed conference tie-in's would've looked like this from about 1975 to 1997.  Somebody show me the problem, please.

Rose Bowl: #1 Michigan vs #2 Washington

Orange Bowl: #5 Florida State vs #6 Georgia (highest ranked team to not win a conference)

Sugar Bowl: #4 Alabama vs #5 OSU (2nd highest ranked team to not win a conference)

Fiesta Bowl: #3 Texas vs #7 Oregon

Amazinblu

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:34 PM ^

I agree with the "traditional bowl alignment" completely.   Prior to the demise of the Pac-12, it would have been an ideal structure to begin any playoff structure.   So, those four major bowls determine who reaches the semifinals.

Pandora's Box is open - nothing's going back in.   Money rules college football - both in the media agreements - and via NIL / brown bagging.

The landscape over the next decade will be VERY interesting to watch - and, I'm not optimistic about the future.    It's not a coincidence that Michigan was an "outlier" this season.   How an outlier?   Look at the talent level of the team?    Michigan won with effort, coaching, talent, scheme, commitment, and culture.   

Prior to this season - when did a team with "less than" Top 4 talent win the CFP?

MI Expat NY

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:29 PM ^

The old system could be fine if not for one major caveat--everyone in the system was getting rich but for the players.  Your tradeoff of an education/exposure in exchange for benefits to the college makes sense until you realize that the benefit to the college, in addition to any intangible benefit such as recognition/marketing, is worth millions and millions of dollars.  And those dollars are making coaches rich and providing very good livings for people that are involved in sports programs that bring in almost no financial benefit to the school.  All one has to do is review the relative salaries of NFL GM/Head Coach with those of NFL players to understand that FBS football players are not getting the same relative value for their efforts.

I recognize that there are real problems in the new system that does threaten to greatly diminish, if not destroy, the college football system.  However, sticking one's head in the sand and just going back to the old system is not the answer.  The original sin was insisting on monetizing every single aspect of college football, and that was part of the old system.  It may never have been avoidable given how TV developed, but we should be clear eyed about the inherent problems, both in the old system and the current system.

 

ShadowStorm33

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:30 PM ^

To add on to your post, I'd also challenge the OP's assertion that the athletes were/are underpaid.

not being compensated fairly (or at all) despite being massive generators of revenue for their universities

This is a common assertion, but while college athletics are a massive revenue driver for universities, my hot take has long been that I don't think the athletes themselves are actually responsible for much of that value. Taking Michigan as an example, I'd argue that the vast majority of the value is derived from the winged helmet, not the players wearing it. You could take the entire football roster--players, coaches, etc.--and plug it into the new XFL/USFL league, and it would only be worth a tiny fraction of the value it had at Michigan (and even then, I'd say most of that value would be driven by the Michigan connection, not the players themselves). Or you could replace the entire roster with an FCS roster, and while the value would certainly go down (winning helps), I don't think it would drop as much as people expect (M was still one of the most valuable programs in the country during the RichRod/Hoke years).

If these high school kids could go straight to a minor league, I think you would see just how stark the contrast is. So few people actually care about minor league sports, and the players by and large get peanuts there, yet if the value was truly tied to the players instead of the teams, you would think it should be about the same...

4th phase

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:32 PM ^

This line of thinking is easy to disprove when you look at how much money Michigan generates when they win a national title vs how much they generated in the 3-9 year.

If the only thing that matters is the Michigan brand and the winged helmet, and the players aren't doing anything, then the results on the field wouldn't correlate to revenue. But we know that isn't the case. Revenue strongly correlates to wins. Wins occur due to players. The players effectively create all the revenue. 

ShadowStorm33

January 23rd, 2024 at 1:33 PM ^

This line of thinking is easy to disprove when you look at how much money Michigan generates when they win a national title vs how much they generated in the 3-9 year.

My guess is that the difference isn't nearly as big as you think, once you normalize the fact that revenue in general has steadily increased (the B1G annual distribution is something like three or four times what it was in 2008). Yes, winning helps, but Michigan is a draw even in bad years.

But the real indicator of what drives the value is how wildly a player's value differs depending on setting. If value was truly driven by the athlete, it should stay relatively consistent regardless of where the player plays. Why was Keon Coleman so much more valuable at FSU than MSU? Same player, but he transfers to a team with more fan support and his value skyrocketed. Even more stark, there's essentially no market for football players outside of college and the NFL. These XFL/USFL/AAF leagues can barely stay open for a season. Like I said, you could take the entire 2023 Michigan roster, which ratings-wise was probably the highest drawing team in the country last year, put it in this new XFL league, and almost no one would watch it. Most players going to that new league right out of college are probably taking a pay cut. Etc.

4th phase

January 23rd, 2024 at 1:57 PM ^

Well you can guess, or you could just look at the numbers. 

After the first year Michigan made the playoffs donations to the AD increased by nearly 4 times. here is an article on applications after basketball success. Look up the Flutie effect. I tried to inflation adjust the ticket sales from 2009, the year after 3-8 to the 2022 season and the difference was 10% or $4.4M. That is just tickets, not to mention other rev streams. 

Of course the university has a built in fan base with alums. But it's not like you can put an intermural team out there and still make money. The players and the results matter.

ShadowStorm33

January 23rd, 2024 at 2:33 PM ^

There aren't any numbers to look at. You can't compare revenue from 2008 (15 years and 2-3 media contracts ago) to this year to try and isolate the effects of winning or losing. It's not as simple as just looking at inflation, athletic revenue has expanded in many ways for many different reasons, and each would have to be accounted for...

4th phase

January 23rd, 2024 at 5:45 PM ^

I feel like you're missing the point. When applications surge, school admit more students. Applications have been shown to correlate to football success. Plus even if you have 100% enrollment and now you get more applications, the quality of student you admit goes up, you give out less financial aid, etc. So a good football team financially benefits the university.

pescadero

January 23rd, 2024 at 3:15 PM ^

The correlation coefficient between wins and inflation adjusted revenue is only 0.46... the bottom end of what is considered moderate correlation.

 

Going from 9 wins in 2007 to 3 wins in 2008: +11% revenue.

Going from 3 wins in 2008 to 5 wins in 2009: -7% revenue

Going from 11 wins in 2011 to 8 winds in 2012: +12% revenue

Going from 5 wins in 2014 to 10 wins in 2015: -4% revenue

 

4th phase

January 23rd, 2024 at 5:43 PM ^

Just off the top of my head: which years was OSU home v away? And I guess I'm confused which years you are reporting. The 9 wins would cause people to buy tickets, it isn't till the year following the poor season when the revenue would be affected. Season tickets are purchased before the games are played. I think you need to look at 2009. all your figures are off by a year. Another thing is that there are larger trends than just year to year. The Rich Rod Era vs the 3 straight playoff appearances have different revenues. 

MI Expat NY

January 23rd, 2024 at 1:14 PM ^

You're not entirely wrong, but I do think you are underselling what winning means.  Michigan has had what, 5 down seasons in the last 55 years?  While the RichRod/Hoke years felt like an eternity, they started just two years removed from a top-5 rose bowl team, interrupted by a top-10 sugar bowl team, then followed immediately by the excitement of the Harbaugh era.  We, thankfully, never had to see what value there is in a Michigan football team that is no longer winning.  Nor have most of the blue-bloods.  

Michigan (and Ohio State, Penn State, and to a much lesser extent Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconson, etc.) brings in millions of millions of dollars for its athletic program and those of other big 10 schools.  Yes, the current set of players could not generate nearly that much money if they were wearing a MAC, FCS, XFL, etc. uniform.  However, collectively, it's been generations of players that have created that value and differentiate Michigan from Indiana, more so than anything intrinsic about Michigan.  Since going back and paying former players for the value they helped create is unrealistic, I think paying current players good money for the value they continue to enhance is the only reasonable path forward--even if it ultimately kills the sport.  

Bluesince89

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:31 PM ^

lol ok. Yea, players got an education when they were admitted to universities past their abilities and funneled into athlete-only courses so they could stay eligible. And yes, Michigan did it too. There’s a reason why half the football team was taking Ojibwae as a foreign language. Again, just looking for come consistency. Either it’s a giant multibillion dollar business or it’s not. If you want to go back to the old way, let’s do it and get rid of the tv deals, pointless bowls, mega conferences, etc. why does Jim Habruagh need 12 million a year to coach amateur athletes who are just playing for school spirit? 

NeverPunt

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:35 PM ^

The downside to that system was that with anything (drugs?) where you can create a black market, people will take advantage. Thus we had the underhanded Alabama real estate dealings, McDonalds bags of cash, etc.....which disproportionately benefit only a few people and teams in the systems...so prohibition of paying players doesn't work and "only" legit NIL doesn't seem to be working either. 

My thought would be that student athletes becoming employees, paying them a fair share of revenue which would be real money, offering real NIL opportunities as a condition of the employment contract, and then making violations of the rules (NIL or others) grounds for non-payment would dis-incentivize taking non-sanctioned NIL or other payments because there's a financial tradeoff that would make it less appealing would mitigate the worst of it. There will still be an OSU paying millions for a top guy and offering to buy out their contract basically but the steeper price tags would in theory reduce those.

Swayze Howell Sheen

January 23rd, 2024 at 12:40 PM ^

How can you say the old system worked fine? Plenty of assholes -- NCAA types, bad coaches, administrators -- made millions of dollars while the "student athletes" worked their asses off for minimal compensation. It worked fine for some, but not the athletes, esp. the ones who don't make the pros (which is by far most of them).

EDIT: I can't believe this comment of yours is getting upvoted at all. It is so dinosaurish in its thinking.