Brady Hoke's Contract Extension
There has been a lot of talk about expectations for 2014. I'd like to take a look at it from the perspective of Coach Hoke's contract.
It runs through 2016, which means we're at something of a crossroads at the end of this season. He'll have just two years left, and needless to say recruiting would be undermined if we went into 2015 with no extension.
The question becomes, what does he have to do to in 2014 to earn an extension, and how long might it be.
In light of the fact he's restored respectability to our program, been a class act doing things the right way, made us competitve with our rivals, and recruited at an elite level, I'm comfortable a winning season would be enough. He'll be right at the cusp of having a roster that's fully his and a favorable schedule in 2015. I don't think we should go into that season with only two years to run.
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:59 PM ^
Yes lol my same thought.
Those in the EMO camp (Hi Brian, it's me!) are 2-0 vs App State & Miami (OH), 0-3 vs @ND, @OSU* and @MSU and 'pick em for the other 7 games.
I honestly cannot say games like @Rutgers or v Maryland or Minnesota are wins. 10 years ago I'd say all wins. I see all those type of games as +2-3 UM in Vegas which is essentially pick em.
If this teams actually improves on offense as a young team should from Sep 1 to Nov 1 a lot of positive things can happen. The EMO group (hand raised) are however in the "show me" camp. Can't count on it right now until we see it. With basketball I KNOW we will be better on Feb 1 vs Dec 1 - with a very young team next year. We have evidence, track record, resume.
With football? Welp.
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:21 PM ^
I posted that question to a similiar post in a thread about a week ago. If you're predicting 7-5 or 8-4 type season, I'm assuming most of those losses are to the rivals. I agree with alum96 about a lot of games being toss up's but if UM is winning 2 out of the 3 rivalry games, they better be looking at at least 9 wins.
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:29 PM ^
It seems to me that a man who captivated Michigan's fan base in year one, has lost credibility two years later.
Tough spot if you're Hoke. New OC and you're youngest team to date. Road games at ND, MSU, and Ohio. Sparty and Ohio being the two most important gamesbecause of the 2-6 record against in 3 years. Add the fact that the general consensus is 9 wins and a then a bowl win.
I simply don't see him being able to pull it off. Devin and the OLine appear to be a disaster, and how long before the Defense simply gives up due to the Offense continuously putting them in difficult position time and time again.
I would love for Hoke to succeed. He talks the good talk about Michigan. But how much mediocrity must we continue to endure?
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:51 PM ^
I feel like he is reflecting on previous potential reasons for his lowered levels of success last year and is making attempts to address.
For evidence see the coaching position changes, leadership changes with players, and the hiring of Nuss (forced or not).
I'd like to see this season play out before I call him "over his head".
I'm not ready to give up on the big fella just yet. Instability will scare recruits much more than lack of success.
Sure, kids want to win, but they also note the family atmosphere that Hoke has helped restore.
I sure hope we can rally behind our team with support again soon.
All the overreaction is way more upsetting to me than a 7 or 8 win season.
I'm sure you'll all be back on board if we somehow win 10 games this year and Hoke will be the greatest thing since the winged helmet. No one will remember all these so called failures - even those who are posting about them today.
Sit back, relax, and hope for the best people, sheesh!
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:49 PM ^
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:58 PM ^
It's the accumulation of posts like this that makes Brian go off every now and then. They might not be the immediate trigger, but they must lay the groundwork. Just visiting the board once a day these days makes me want to water torture myself.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with this thread as a general topic. We are getting into kind of dicey territory if we bring him back next season without an extension (though I don't look at it as the death-knell to recruiting that some do). People are downvoting the shit out this because of Cold War's ridiculous "winning record should do the trick!" opinion.
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:16 PM ^
April 24th, 2014 at 12:51 AM ^
and how many days are there until the season starts ? I need more Prozac.
In light of the fact he's restored respectability to our program, been a class act doing things the right way, made us competitve with our rivals, and recruited at an elite level, I'm comfortable a winning season would be enough.
Don't even know where to start with this, man.
DEAR GOD HOKE IS TERRIBLE HE NEEDS TO WIN A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP AFTER BEATING URBZ THEN TAKING MRS. URBZ BACK TO AA VIKING STYLE LOLZ BUT SERIOUSLY HOKE SUKZ AND MICHIGAN FOOTBALL IS SUCH A MESS OMG MY PRIDE IS RUINED BY BODY IS A HUSK HOW AM I NOT IN A GRAVE WITH MICHIGAN FOOTBALL HISTORY ALREADY
I can't wait until, like, week 6 this season. At least by then we'll have one more season of evidence to talk about.
9-3 is the golden standard (on average).
If I were the AD I'd renew Hoke's contract today. Why screw things up for the program by making it obvious to every recruit that they will be playing for a new staff and a new system if Hoke goes into to his last contractual year without it.
If DB has seen enough, then he can simply end the deal after any given season without tipping his hand to everyone in the land first. Make the exit clauses favorable to the U.
I was thinking along the lines of Devil's Advocate last night, about who we should hire next should the 8-9-or-10-wins-or-bust-crowd not be satiated this season. The one best answer I can arrive at it to make Urban Meijer the highest paid coach in the land if he switches sides. We're tired of developing coaches, we're tired of being hamstrung by coaches formerly affiliated with the program. So at that point its pretty much win at all costs. Why hold back. Go buy the best as it will have the lowest variance and the highest probability of success. The biggest question is whether we're forcing Urban to accept Mattison staying or we're going full championship staff and allow Fickell to run the D.
Obviously I'm being sarcastic here....I feel certain this theme will come up week after week until fall camp starts. Maybe if it gets blown up early and often we can have a peaceful summer.
Including App State, M plays 5 games in the month of September. M positively absolutely must come out of September 4-1 at a minimum. App State, MiamiO, Utah, and Minn are all at home. They're all winnable games. If M loses to, say, Minn, that will not bode well for Sparty and Penn State (back-to-back games), or Ohio, let alone "in union there is strength" NU. Those 4 games become 3 real-possiblity losses and 1 toss-up. Another potential 7-5 season. Not good for Brady.
Of course, if the App State game ever devolved into "Horror II" (not much chance of that, I think) Brady had better just call his agent and pack his bags.
That should be the basis for deciding whether his contract is extended. I would expect his job description to spell out:
- Minimum performance requirements
- Expectations
- Criteria for bonuses
If Hoke is only meeting minimum requirements, not realizing expectations in a majority of years, and does not get to the bonus level consistently, then an extension is not warranted, IMO.
Since UofM is a public institution, I wonder if it's possible to secure a copy of Hoke's contract. That would be an interesting read.
April 24th, 2014 at 10:21 AM ^
Thanks, Justingoblue. Hoke's 6-year contract is clear. These are the four bonus outcomes listed along with their perceived value:
- Any bowl game (75 points)
- 2nd or 3rd place conference bowl (125 points)
- Conference game championship game appearance (300 points)
- Conference game championship gme wins (500 points)
Hoke has acheived only the lowest level and least-valued outcome. Therefore, I would conclude that, even if UofM was to win the Big Championhsip this year, it is unlikely Hoke would be given an extension. Personally, I would think the contract bonus terms mean Hoke needs to at least appear in the Big Championship in both 2014 and 2015 before an extension would be considered.
Just a reminder to all that Bo never had a multi-year contract. He didn't need it. His first (and I believe only) contract was written on the back of a cocktail napkin.
April 24th, 2014 at 11:18 AM ^
Penn State was supposed to be a smoking crater in the ground since they had a coach that F'd little boys and a coach/administration that allegedly covered it up. the program was given the closest the the NCAA will ever get to the death penalty again. With the post season ban, scholarship reductions, and immediate transfer eligibility how did the Brady Hoke coached Michigan Wolverines do in comparison?
During Hoke's tenure...
Penn State has a better conference record, hasn't lost head to head vs Michigan, and despite the post season ban only has 1 less bowl victory.
I would argue that if Hoke wasn't a "Michigan Man" the discussion wouldn't be about an extension but rather how to end his tenure in a way that doesn't embarrass the University, DB, or Hoke.
April 24th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
FIRE RICH ROD
I played enough NCAA football to know all you have to do is win a certain number of games each season and beat your rivals a certain percentage of the time. If I had to guess, DB also plays NCAA football, but he does it to see which players he's ripping off of likeness rights, not how to learn to be an AD.
win 10 games this season, I say give him an extension. If he can not win 6 games, then he should be fired ASAP right after the season. If he wins 6 to 9 games, then we will have to see how he performs in 2015. I don't think it is fair to say he needs to win the east division, I think 2015 should provide for 10 wins with close and competitive games against the teams we way may lose to in 2015. If Michigan wins 10 games but gets blown out at home against State and OSU, then I would let Hoke go since the 2015 schedule is just so dang easy.
<6, Hoke is gone.
=6, Hoke is probably gone.
=7, Hoke is on the hot seat.
=8, Hoke gets a little bit of "space," but not a lot.
<9, Hoke is safe.
April 26th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
I think you can shift all of those down: 6 = gone. 7 = probably gone. 8 = probably safe. 9 = definitely safe for a year. 10 = safe for a while.
8 or 9 win seasons will never be good enough at Michigan. I hope.