Bovada prop bets: 2015 Heisman and national championship

Submitted by justingoblue on

There was an article at the Detroit News earlier today that I didn't see posted, detailing the earliest odds on the Heisman Trophy and national championship.

Michigan is a 40/1 bet to win it all and doesn't have a player included on the Heisman list. Ohio State (12/1) is the national favorite, and MSU (25/1) comes in before Michigan.

Nebraska (66/1), Wisconsin (75/1), Penn State (100/1) and Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota and Northwestern (all 500/1) round out the Big Ten. Utah (100/1) and Oregon State (500/1) also make appearances.

On the Heisman front, Ohio State has the favorite in Ezekiel Elliot (6/1). Cardale Jones (12/1), Connor Cook (20/1), Braxton Miller (25/1) and JT Barrett (28/1) are all among the frontrunners.

NC:

  • Ohio State 7/2
  • Alabama 7/1
  • TCU 10/1
  • Auburn 12/1
  • Florida State 12/1
  • USC 18/1
  • Baylor 20/1
  • Notre Dame 20/1
  • Clemson 22/1
  • Oregon 22/1

Heisman:

  • Ezekiel Elliott (RB Ohio State) 6/1
  • Leonard Fournette (RB LSU) 15/2
  • Trevone Boykin (QB TCU) 8/1
  • Nick Chubb (RB Georgia) 8/1
  • Dak Prescott (QB Mississippi State) 8/1
  • Cardale Jones (QB Ohio State) 12/1
  • Cody Kessler (QB USC) 12/1
  • Everett Golson (QB Florida State) 14/1
  • Derrick Henry (RB Alabama) 16/1
  • Paul Perkins (RB UCLA) 18/1

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/michigan-state-universi…

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/college-football-player-props.jsp

justingoblue

May 21st, 2015 at 12:58 AM ^

Looking at that list (especially with Golson at FSU now) I really wonder what's going on behind the scenes with Braxton Miller. He's mentioned because they're throwing shit against the wall at this point, but every bit of conventional wisdom says he needs to transfer and Meyer has gotten him to stay.

Not implying anything shady, just honestly wondering what it means for playing time, position switches, his injury, ect.

RationalBuckeye

May 21st, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^

Whoever is advising him through the process has to be letting him know that he probably isn't an NFL QB. Even before the QB controversy, he needed a lot of development to be a solid draft prospect at the position, and I would guess that he isn't unaware of the career merits associated with a position change.




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mclub

May 21st, 2015 at 1:18 AM ^

You must not have watched much of the post season.  Jones absolutely destroyed the #1 and #2 teams in college football last year on the biggest stage.  Jones will be their starter.  Barrett is their future and a good one at that.

RationalBuckeye

May 21st, 2015 at 9:48 AM ^

Not the same way. Cardale's ability to take the top off the defense with ease opened up so much space over the middle for runners.
Part of that was Devin Smith's ability to separate though; safeties had to prepare for that and were way out of the box on perceived passing situations. Replacing that concept will be key.




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alum96

May 21st, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^

Or one could say their OL improved tremendously from Sept to Nov, thus opening monster holes for Elliot to spring thru and allowing both Barrett and Jones all day to throw.  Everyone focuses on the skill position but OSU's OL destroyed MSU's front 7 in EL and then manhandled Oregon and Alabama.

buckeyejonross

May 21st, 2015 at 10:24 AM ^

Re: Alabama

Cardale Jones ability to stretch the field was important, but really, that was at least half reliant on Devin Smith being Devin Smith. Alabama struggled with deep passes all year, watched Jones/Smith light up Wisconsin for 160 yards and 3 TDs and panicked their entire defense around the fear of that play 9and still couldn't defend it). Elliott and the OL then took advantage of Alabama's deep ball fears. It also helped that Alabama had unusually poor LB play last year, because their LBs constantly got picked off by OSU WRs and/or were slow to react.

Ohio State was going to bludgeon Oregon regardless of who played QB.

tragictones

May 21st, 2015 at 1:58 AM ^

I was under the same impression that you were, but I just checked the stats and some clips.  Ohio State really moved the ball well, but Jones didn't really play all that well against Alabama.  He only completed 51.4% of his passes. (Bama's defense allowed 54% completions on the year)  

He passed for a pedestrian 6.9 yards/attempt. (Bama allowed 6.4 yards/attempt on the year) He had a passer rating of 113 against Alabama. (Alabama defense allowed an average rating of 116 over the course of the year.)  His ESPN QBR score was 54 out of 100, where 50 is average.  He threw one TD and one INT, but I just watched the clip and the only TD pass he had was when an Alabama player fell down leaving Devin Smith uncovered.

Jones also rushed for mediocre results.  17 rushes for 43 yards (only 2.5 yards/attempt) and no touchdowns and one fumble.  He ran for a couple of nice gains, but he also oddly took some big losses by trying to do to much.

No, Jones didn't crush Alabama.  Ohio State beat Alabama with a pick six, a trick play for TD (Spencer's TD pass), a long TD against a CB who fell, and an excellent performance by Ezekiel Elliot.

glewe

May 21st, 2015 at 7:49 AM ^

This. This is how we know that too many sports analyses are simply wrong: It feels like every story is really just sensationalized garbage. Jones is nothing of the QB that Miller and Barrett are. Honestly, he was as successful as he was because the team's he faced (1) couldn't defend his deep ball, and (2) Ezekiel Elliott opened up the field for him to raid. Absent Elliott and a similar caliber RB, Ohio does not win with Jones at helm.




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tragictones

May 21st, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^

You think I am underselling his performance.  

I suppose I could rephrase it to say "He struggled with accuracy in the passing game and performed about the average for an Alabama opponent QB.  He did pick up 6 crucial first downs with his legs which kept OSU drives alive.  He also struggled mightily in the red zone.  In the red zone, he had three rushes for -9 yards total (0 TDs) and only completed 37% of his passes (3/8, for 17 yards and 0 TDs)"

Even hyping up his first down runs doesn't demonstrate that he "absolutely destroyed" Alabama.  He had ups and downs.  The ESPN QBR rating takes all aspects of QB play into their rating, including rushes, yet he only socred 54 out of 100 (50 is average.)  Their OLine, on the other hand, had a special night.

FYI  ESPN QBR "meaning it accounts for down, distance, field position, as well as the clock and score. A 5-yard gain on third-and-4 is a good play, whereas a 5-yard gain on third-and-14 isn't."  "It also accounts for a quarterback's ability to scramble, his ability to run on designed rush plays, how well he avoids sacks, drawing and committing penalties, and all-important fumbles, which can be significant for quarterbacks"

LSAClassOf2000

May 21st, 2015 at 6:59 AM ^

I would think that Boykin is definitely one to watch on this list - he had a QB rating of 145.9 last season, threw for nearly 4,000 yards (completing over 60% of his passes) and rushed for another 700 or so. Boykin has been the reason that offense works at TCU in his time there, and he was 4th in the Heisman voting last year, as I recall. Definitely a fun player to watch. 

KyleMullins

May 21st, 2015 at 1:04 AM ^

I'd bet Braxton Miller lines up at RB, and in the Slot a lot this year.   He's a great athlete, terrible QB.  I can see them getting the ball in his hands with a run/pass option a few times a game.  It will be hard to game plan against that. 

KyleMullins

May 21st, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^

I'm guessing you thought Denard was a great QB too right?



Denard was one of the most exciting athletes at the position, but he was a terrible QB.   Tim Tebow as well, terrible QB......good athlete.   Hence the reason Denard is a RB in the NFL.   Braxton Miller is in the same boat.    He's an awful QB, but he's probably the best athlete out of the 3 at Ohio. 

DavidP814

May 21st, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^

So Denard, Tebow, and Miller are all "terrible" QBs?  That triumverate accomplished a great deal for being terrible players at their position!

All 3 guys are wonderful college QBs.  All certainly have deficiencies with throwing accuracy, but that's not an absolute prerequisite to be an effective quarterback at the high school or college level.  

Tebow won a title and a Heisman as the primary starter, Miller was 24-2 as an OSU starter his last 2 years, and Denard makes me happy.  Describing that group as "terrible" at playing quarterback is pejorative and inaccurate.

Tater

May 21st, 2015 at 2:07 AM ^

If Miller was anything except a Buckeye or, hypothetically, a Spartan, I would feel sorry for him.  He went from Heisman candidate to third best QB on his own team.  That has to suck.

Monkey House

May 21st, 2015 at 2:11 AM ^

that heisman list shows you the major difference between Michigan and OSU. I think our defenses are pretty even and comparable but there is a huge gap in offenses right now.

alum96

May 21st, 2015 at 10:26 AM ^

Von Bell - Class of 2013 - 5 star, #24 overall in the country was their 2nd leading tackler with 92 and had 6 picks.  If we get that sort of production out of Peppers we'll be thrilled and everyone will talk about losing him to the NFL in a year.

Tyvis Powell - Class of 2012 - generic 3 star recruit was their other safety had 76 tackles and 4 picks.  If Jarrod Wilson can get that sort of production we'll be thrilled.

They did lose Doran Grant and his 63 tackles and 5 INTs to graduation.

The other corner Apple (class of 13, 48th overall) had 53 tackles and 3 INTs

All 4 of those guys had more INTs than the entire UM secondary (which had friggin 2).  Two of those guys had more INTs than the whole team (we had 5 as a TEAM).

Lewis v Apple is the only one we can clearly state we favor Lewis ....and OSU would argue otherwise based on production.  Apple had more tackles - by a good amount - and 1 more INT.  I guess we can argue no one threw on Lewis in the back half of last year as a counter point.

For comparison, Jarrod Wilson 50 tackles , 0 INTs.  Lewis 39 tackles 2 INTs, Blake gone, Lyons a part time starter who lost his job as the year went by, etc.

Hard to say our secondary is better or possibly far more.

If you want to talk DTs - with their graduation losses and our guys - yes we are probably going to be better there.  LBs can be a discussion point although I think our guys are "steady" and they have more explosive fast players.  Forget DEs (Bosa).  And secondary - again, we HOPE Peppers plays like Von Bell.  And we have Lewis.  And then some guys who are steady.  It's not some great secondary.

nowayman

May 21st, 2015 at 5:16 PM ^

Lyons played in 43 games, has 121 tackles (81 solo) (30 last year), and has NFL potential.  

He's an inch taller, weighs thirteen pounds more than Blake, and has press experience.  

Point being you kinda sold Lyons short with the 'some dude that got benched at Stanford' (admitted exaggeration of your) line.  

The kid has skill.  Whether we'll see what he can be or get just another 2014 is another story, of course.  

Again, I don't think that any of the above detracts from your conclusion.

Edit: just read your diary on him alum.  Good stuff, as usual, but it reads like most of your UM stuff, glass half empty (that's not an insult).

Michigan4Life

May 21st, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^

that OSU > Michigan in secondary, but stating tackles and INT doesn't tell the story of how good they cover receivers. Do they get into the WR's hip pocket? Play sound zone coverage? How's the safeties support over the top? How well do they communicate on passing off receivers to other defenders?

These won't be answered by looking at tackles and INT. 

gwkrlghl

May 21st, 2015 at 6:04 AM ^

Even at 20/1, Cook's odds seem high. I don't get why so many people are so high on him here and in the 2016 draft. I've never been impressed with him

Moonlight Graham

May 21st, 2015 at 8:52 AM ^

I have to agree with several others on this thread, Boykin has to be the favorite or maybe Prescott. If a healthy Gurley and/or Melvin Gordon had returned then maybe a running back could win it, but it seems to be a QB-centric award more than ever before. 

Brhino

May 21st, 2015 at 9:02 AM ^

Hey, remember at the end of last year how all those sketchy offshore betting sites were running "Where will Harbaugh coach next year?" odds?  Did anyone here actually make any money off Harbaugh to Michigan?

Perkis-Size Me

May 21st, 2015 at 9:28 AM ^

The sad part is in addition to OSU being a favorite to repeat, they could legitimately send 3 candidates to the Heisman ceremony. Elliott, whoever their QB is, and if he has a big enough year, Bosa. I doubt he'd win, but he's still one of the best players in the country, and probably the best defenseman.




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DealerCamel

May 21st, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^

Remember right before the Wisconsin game some dude made a diary about how Urban Meyer was fading into mediocrity and his Ohio teams were not actually that great.  The phrase "he hasn't actually won anything yet" was used.

Three heavyweight games and a national championship later, here we are.