Bill Connelly Michigan Preview
Bill Connelly's preview for Michigan was released today. Based on Connelly's reputation and his accuracy in predicting Michigan's 2017 season this should be taken pretty seriously.
https://mgoblog.com/node/add/forum
That link isn't what you think it is....
Great name, sir.
Damn... here it is
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/7/2/17498642/michigan-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster
Thanks for the heads up ;)
Can you copy & paste into a Diary or OP? I saw “mgoblog...” in the link and thought that was what you did.
At least it wasn’t Pornhub like that ESPN guy.
While I agree with his analysis, I'm not sure I agree with the record prediction. If Michigan indeed goes 8-4 that will be a failure in my eyes and in most of this fanbase's. That said I feel very good that this team can get to at least 9-3.
I don't by the 9-3 or 8-4 narrative. To me, those predictions come from not knowing how much the OLine has developed, not knowing whether Patterson is going to be that dynamic playmaker.
If you assume both of those things are going to happen, then anything less that the winner of the OSU game advancing to the B1G title game will be a HUGE disappointment
*buy EDIT!
Roster analysis suggests literally our only weakness is OT, and it seems reasonable to assume one of those two positions will be fine. The interior of the OL actually looks to be very solid and likely rush blocking as well. So it all comes down to how much can one position out of 22 exploit us. I'm thinking between Warriner and the issue being very clearly established means it's mitigated to the extent possible, especially when you consider a mobile and highly talented QB, a very strong backfield, and likely very strong receiving core.
I know power rankings are putting us at 4 or 5 in the B10, but I think it's more like 3-way tie for second with PSU and Wisconsin, and you could even argue us as being 2nd alone. 8-4 would be flat out bad with this roster even considering the schedule. 9-3 disappointing. 10-2 IMO most probable, and who those losses come to dictates our postseason.
There's just so many 'ifs' and unknowns on the offensive side of the ball its tough to get too optimistic without going full kool-aid mode. Even saying the WRs are going to be likely very strong is a pretty big stretch. Last year's leading WR (Perry) had 300 yards last season and has 600 TOTAL yards in three years of playing time. You'd need Black, DPJ, and 1 or 2 others to basically go from doing nothing at all in their careers to being all-conference caliber to have something someone outside of the Michigan bubble would call a very strong WR core.
Now is that possible? Maybe. Likely? Probably not. Think the most likely outcome is that they lean pretty heavy on the run game and the WR core is pretty average (which would still be a massive step up from last year).
Don't agree about the WRs. I'm expecting TE+WR to measure up with the top of the B10, along with the backs, along with the QB, and to say along with the defense would be selling the defense short
Unfortunately, it's the second most important position in football. If you can't protect the QB, it doesn't matter that much who your QB or who he is not throwing it to. And then if you can't protect the QB, it's harder to open holes for RBs.
So yeah, a lot is riding on that position.
Sadly there’s a pretty good chance that even if we’re 8-4 the winner of the OSU game will advance to the B1G title game. But I get what you mean and agree.
8-4 will cause some real unhappiness and questioning of JH that will make this year look like nothing. Many fans will get off the boat. Like Connelly I was at 9-3 last year, so given the QB situation I was ok (though disappointed obvs) with the record. I'm going to say 9-3 again this year if only because of the horrible schedule (Dave Brandon should burn in hell for allowing the all rival games on road every other year). And one of those wins must be a rival game. 10-2 I think would be a success under that same qualification.
It will especially be a failure if a Michigan State team that was 3-9 two years ago when we were 10-2 is better than us again this year.
This implys they were better than us last year, which I don’t think is true. They were definitely luckier(injurys) then us last year. I don’t think we lose to them with Speight at QB even with the weather.
Well, they beat us, in Ann Arbor, they had a better record overall, they finished above us in the standings and the polls, and they went to a better bowl game. If that's not being better than us, I'm not sure what is. Saying that if we'd had better players that wouldn't have happened doesn't change the fact. I know it's a popular thing to say that State is "just lucky", but after quite a few years of attributing their success to "luck", you might have to look for a different explanation.
what success? they went 9-3 with 2 lucky wins and went to a shittier bowl than we did.. and he didn't say if we had better players, he said if our starting an was not injured in the previous game..
You can argue whether MSU was lucky or not but call8ng their season a success is bullcrap.. they didn't win the division or make a big bowl. If we beat MSU this year and have the same year may had last year nobody here will be calling that a success.
Bullcrap? Seriously? They went from 3-9 to 10-3, and finished around 15th in the polls (which we were out of completely). How is that not a successful season? And in what meaningful way were we better than them last year?
The narrative has always overwhelmed the team's performance and it's only going to get worse this year if they don't learn to pull their heads out of their asses when they're on the road and win during winning time. Sure, Luck has been bad, but Connelly's point about Harbaugh needing to get the monkey's off of his back is a good one. Lots of talent, but the offense has a LONG way to go and the defense had a bad habit of giving up big plays at the wrong times.
This year feels really critical and I wonder if it's going to strengthen the team or break it.
Let's be fair to the defense: save for the PSU game and probably the Outback Bowl, you really can't blame them for any of last year's losses. It's not their fault that the offense couldn't get anything going and was constantly sending them back onto the field after only getting two to three minutes of rest on the sideline.
It's not their fault that the offense couldn't muster one single first down in the fourth quarter of the '16 OSU game. They were gassed by the end of the game.
For this year's Wisconsin game, yes they gave up some plays. But let's be honest: when O'Korn had to come in, everyone and their mother knew that game was over.
Sure, they've given up some plays here and there. But so does every defense. That's part of the game. The PSU game is the only game in Don Brown's Michigan tenure where I'd say the defense did not do it's part to help win the game. Even with the Outback Bowl, that game trajectory changed with offensive mistakes, specifically Higdon fumbling and Harbaugh outsmarting himself by handing off to McKeon.
Win probability against ND is 38%. Ya, not taking this seriously
What would be fair? Do you think we should be favored at ND? We are not an easy team to peg right now because of Shea.
Did not mean to downvote you! I was just trying to scroll on my iPad. Maybe these hands are a little too big.
Yes, I do think we should be favorites at ND. Also, I'm kind of a moran
Evidence doesn't confirm my obvious bias? Well fuck the data I couldn't possibly be wrong!
Homers suck.
People who unabashedly hope their team has a championship season..suck?
Uhhh .....no, they're called FANS!
Now whatever it is you call yourself?... That sucks!
About what you should expect. I think his system overrated ND and MSU about, probably underrates Wisconsin, Maryland, and Nebraska a bit, and in the wash 9-3 feels about right.
But if you asked me do I think this year Michigan breaks through and wins 11+ games and wins the division, I'd say he's got a good shot at it. Other teams are allowed to shoot themselves in the foot, to get bad breaks, etc. And this feels like a team that knows it's better than people are expectinting and have an identity (stout defense and some big-play ability on offense) to make it count.
IDK, personally I think any more than 1 or 2 losses would be a huge disappointment. Most people for a few years now have been pointing to this year as the year. I don't care about the schedule difficulty, at the end of the day, if you're better than someone, you should beat them. Even the so-called tough games, outside of OSU, I think we're better than. This team doesn't have a glaring weakness. The defense should be freakish good, with depth. The offense has both very good running backs back this year, plus talent behind them. The O-Line is presumably better, which even at just good, should be enough to win most games. The wide receiver talent is freakish. One of our biggest un-doings the past few years has been bad QB play once the #1 got hurt. I'm not worried this year. Whoever wins the battle between Patterson and Peters will be very good, and if they were to get hurt, the second guy is your backup. Those two go down? Dylan McCaffrey, one of the top QB's in his class, is coming off a redshirt and now 2 years in the system. I remember reading for the past few months, from the insiders, that he was pretty close with Peters. Special teams? Check with Nordin and the athletic talent on the coverage teams / return team with DPJ fielding punts. Just feel like if something special doesn't happen this year, then I don't know when.
I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but there are so many factors when it comes to a football season and how a team finishes, so to only measure this season by wins and losses is probably going to get you a good kick in the balls. I for one have not been pointing to this year being the year for the last few years. 2016 was the one year I thought that would be possible, but even then you had Speight starting for the first time, so even then my expectations where a little lower. I don't know how anyone could look at the turnover from 2016 to 2017 and think that team had a legitimate shot at winning a big ten title but that is just me.
As for this season, I think the season needs to be measured on if there is substantial improvement at our key positions that have been lacking for some time, or just last year. It really doesn't need to be stated, but the OL needs to show significant improvement, and only time will tell if Warriner is the guy to make that happen. WR needs to see a major improvement, because as much as we like to blame the QB spot for last year, a lot of times the WRs had a hard time creating separation. Both of these issues have been addressed by JH in the off season and we will see if they pay off. I do believe that whether it be Shea, DM, or Peters in the lineup, you will see a QB who has been prepared and will be better equipped to succeed.
All of these can show tremendous improvement, but at the end of the day, Michigan still has 3 tough road environments, and 2 tough opponents at home. Throw in a rejuvenated Nebraska squad that will be motivated and a potential tough road game with Northwestern (you just never know about them) it is very possible and probable to see 3, maybe even 4 losses with an improved team.
I think many fans lose site of what a realistic W-L record in a season is. A good team is typically going to lose 2-3 games a year. In the current 12 game season, that means 10-2 or 9-3 is the typical annual expectation. Look at Lloyd Carr's record after the rough start and national championship season (10-3, 10-2, 9-3, 8-4, 10-3, 10-3, 9-3, 7-5, 11-2, 9-4). Carr is considered a pretty high standard at Michigan and yet only one 11-1 season out of his final 10 years.
People think of the great runs USC, Texas, OSU, Alabama, Clemson have gone on in recent history when they on average lost only 1 maybe 2 games per year and think that should be the annual expectation. Those are not the norm. Those are unique stretches when a team can go 5+ seasons and consistently win 11+ games a year. Additionally, of those teams, all of them have either been proven or highly accused of cheating to get players. (for those that don't know about Texas, they did an amazing job of keeping it very quiet under Mack Brown)
Anybody else getting the date a rich woman advertising on the homepage? That chick has some serious cans.
Username checks out
Unfortunately, I have been getting a steady dose of the Car Organizer.
2018 will probably determine if UM is a program that can take a step forward and play with the big boys or is slated for mediocrity.
I hope the offensive play calling and philosophy doesn't inhibit the talent.
9 wins should be the minimum.
its not an easy schedule, but Michigan has be able to win 2 out of the ND, PSU, MSU, Wisky and OSU group shouldn't they?
Its year 4... if michigan loses 3 out of those 5 games plus another versus NW or Nebraska? to get to 4 losses, that is awful
I just don't know. I have made seemingly "educated" record predictions each year for the past ~15 years, and - welp - I've not been very successful.
This year is a total tossup to me. Is the team better? I certainly hope so! Is out schedule harder? Yep! Have we shown that we can win a meaningful game on the road? Nope.
Even with shedding the maize-colored glasses, this year's schedule is brutal. And - even more than the schedule - most of our "meaningful" games (aka. rivalries) occur on the road where UM has had virtually no success in recent memory.
I just don't know. I'm excited for the season, and I think Week #1 will tell us a lot. A win at ND will create a great narrative to start the season; a loss will cause some SERIOUS heartburn among the fans, alums, etc.
My biggest concern is UM teams have not shown any sense of mental toughness the past several years. A loss at a hostile stadium on the road to an arch enemy will really challenge the mental fortitude of this team, and every prognosticator is going to question Harbaugh's coaching ability as a result.
Recent history would suggest that ND will tell us basically nothing. But I agree anyway.
Texas is back, baby!!
I agree, but again, I think alot has been to do the last few years with the awful QB play on the road, since we've been down to 2nd and 3rd string QB's and not much depth coming off the Hoke years. These upper classmen are some of the first Harbaugh recruits and I'm sure they don't care about the past of losing on the road / rivalries, they are good and just want to win. But this will be a make or break year in terms of how good Harbaugh and the coaching staff are at developing them and getting them off the hump of playing rivalries and / winning on the road.
The issue is there is no-one in the program that knows how to get over the hump and win when winning time comes on the road and you can see that in the way the team CRUMBLES with the slightest adversity when they're on the road. I don't think that can come from the coaching staff and right now I just don't know who's going to step up and make that play to win on the road.
It sucks and I hate feeling this way about the team I root for, but until they do it for a couple of years consistently I am just going to assume they'll find a way to lose a big road game.
I found this analysis to be the most even-handed and unbiased of Michigan football at this moment apart from any of the Michigan friendly sources. He objectively analyzed last season including the misfortune with injuries. He also acknowledged how excellent of a job our coach has done despite the challenges facing him given his propensity for headlines and the expectations he has created from prior successes.
Objectively, we are favored by the S&P to win nine of those games in a strictly head to head fashion. We are buying into Shea Patterson and Coach Warinner effect, and realizing that this is a generational defense with a very talented offense. I am not offended that S&P predicts 8.2 wins, but IPGB is predicting 11 wins.. before the B1G championship. Which, I predict we will win! In fact, I think we will win the first playoff game and lose to Alabama in the championship.
Also, that level of success well cement this recruiting class and be the foundation of a decade of excellence under Coach Jim Harbaugh!
I don't like to predict win totals. Close games can go either way and there's no reason to think they will balance out over the course of a single season. Schedules that look easy can turn out to be fairly hard and vice versa.
I do like to predict how good teams may be. Looking at Michigan in 2018:
Special teams should be a little better. I expect improved punting, if not from Robbins, than someone else. Not saying much. Returns should be better with Thomas handling KOs full time and DPJ having more experience. Kickoffs will be less of a weapon though.
Defense will be outstanding again. Great returning players and good depth. Splitting hairs to predict better or worse than 2017.
Offense had a number of issues last season. Let's see how they've been addressed. The ceiling for QB play is much, much higher than 2017 performance. Even the floor is clearly higher. WR will be much better simply with normal FR progression and Black's return. Adding an experienced dedicated WR coach could be a big plus, will be at least some advantage. Higdon and Evans improved during the season. Expect a higher level overall in 2018. Need to find a 3rd option, but a small dropoff from Isaac won't mean too much. TEs should be even better.
Interior OL will be improved. Ruiz already passed Kugler last season. OT joins QB as the only position group on offense that's a real question mark. The weakest link will be much stronger. RT will be way ahead of what we got from Ulizio. Getting Mason Cole level play from LT is asking a bit much. Maybe a wash between the two positions. Maybe a plus because upgrading the weakest link is more important. I like the intangibles though. The teamwork among the line was lacking last season. The coaching change was probably needed to fix that more than anything.
The playcalling will look better with a better QB who isn't under immediate pressure. It probably will be better too.
What you predict is going to be based on how you factor in the ceiling and floor of the offense. Do you split the difference? Overweight last year's performance? Underweight it because of more options for positions that need to show improvement? Show confidence or pessimism because of intangibles? Every expert (and non-expert) will do things their own way, even seeing the same information. I'll just say the ceiling for this team is very high. The floor would be very disappointing, but enough to have gone 9-3 with last season's schedule.
It's year 4, his biggest, most impactful classes are juniors and sophomores. And now he's got the highest rated QB he has ever had. If something big doesn't happen this year, it probably never will.
That one inch against OSU was a killer. Imagine how different the narrative would be if Harbaugh won that game.
2017 would just be viewed as a pit stop, not a potential trend.
Unfortunately it is only the spot that gets talked about now. It shouldn't have even come down to that as we all know that game was littered with horseshit calls and no-calls that went against us all day long.
Heck, that play alike had a half dozen golds that allowed him to get that close to the 1st down marker.
Should have said alone, not alike
The previous play, where Samuels reversed field and got to within one yard of a first down, is totally aggravating. Look at it again; lots of holds and a gigantic, humongous, even a nearly blind person would have seen it block in the back on Jourdan Lewis. If that penalty was called, game likely would have ended differently.
That’s why I’m not really worried about the team, or Harbaugh- imagine if the “punt mishap” never happened, and we won 2016 Ohio State game. The narrative would be completely different. Sports fans often jump to conclusions based on a small sample size. I’m not a statistician, but have a functional knowledge; sports and politics are two fields where the bullshit factor is high when supposed statistics are pulled out.